基于雷诺数的大气阻力模型在飞行器再入预报中的应用

随着对空间技术服务需求的增加和空间碎片主动移除技术的实现，未来空间碎片将以数量多、质量大、难分解等特点频繁再入大气层，给地面人员和财产安全造成更多威胁。因此，亟需对火箭体等大型航天器的大气再入进行预警，然而因缺乏合适的大气阻力系数模型难以实现高精度的大气再入预报。为此，在简化航天器模型的基础上引入基于雷诺数的大气动力模型，通过RK6(7)对运动微分方程数值积分得到预报结果，并与高精度数值轨道传播器HPOP以及半解析轨道传播器WHU-SST的预报结果进行对比。实验表明:在运动微分方程中引入基于雷诺数的大气动力模型提前30天对火箭体进行大气再入预报，精度显著提升，某些目标的预报误差从96%下降至7.8%；仅使用TLE数据，将新模型用于地面风险评估能够使真实陨落位置位于预报的统计陨落位置中。 

Application of Atmospheric Drag Model Based on Reynolds Number in Reentry Prediction of Rocket Bodies

With the increasing demand for space technology services and the realization of active space debris removal technology, space debris will frequently re-enter the atmosphere in the future with the characteristics of large quantity, high quality and difficult decomposition, causing more threats to the safety of people and property. Therefore, there is an urgent need for early warning of atmospheric reentry of large spacecraft such as rocket body. However, due to the lack of appropriate atmospheric drag coefficient model, it is difficult to achieve high-precision atmospheric reentry prediction. Therefore, an atmospheric dynamic model based on Reynolds number is introduced for simplified spacecraft model, and the prediction results are obtained by numerical integration of the differential equation of motion through RK6(7), which are compared with the prediction results of high-precision numerical orbital propagator HPOP and semi analytical orbital propagator WHU-SST. The experimental results show that using the differential equation of motion with the atmospheric dynamic model based on Reynolds number to predict the reentry of the rocket body 30 days in advance, the accuracy of prediction is significantly improved, and the prediction error of an object is reduced from 96% to 7.8%; Using the new model for ground risk assessment with TLE data only, the real decayed location can be located in the predicted statistical decayed location.