Non-axisymmetrical distributions of solar magnetic activity and irradiance

Active longitudes play an important role in spatial organization of solar activity. These zones associated with complexes of solar activity may persist for 20–40 consecutive rotations, and may be caused by large-scale non-axisymmetrical components of the global magnetic field. These zones of the field concentrations are 20°–40° wide and during subsequent rotations tend to reappear at constant longitude or drift slightly eastward or westward. Since the magnetic field is the principle source of the variations of radiation on the solar surface the active longitudes affect the solar irradiance received at the Earth. In this paper I study connections between the active longitudes and irradiance variations using VIRGO/SOHO, KPO and WSO data, which covered the transition period from solar cycle 22 to cycle 23 and rising phase of cycle 23. The result of this investigation is that active longitudes are associated with increases of the total solar irradiance and are prime sources of enhanced EUV radiation and coronal heating.     

Characterization of the slow wind in the outer corona

The study concerns the streamer belt observed at high spectral resolution during the minimum of solar cycle 23 with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region.     

冕洞特征参数与重现型地磁暴关系的统计研究

在提取冕洞特征参数的基础上,利用1996年到2005年8月近十年来对地磁扰动有影响的356个冕洞事例,定量分析了冕洞特征参数(包括冕洞的面积比、经纬度跨度等)与冕洞高速流特征、重现型地磁扰动特征(包括扰动大小和持续时间等)之间的相关性,研究发现,从引起地磁扰动的冕洞在整个太阳活动周的分布来看,在地磁扰动峰年中冕洞影响同样具有重要的贡献;冕洞高速流太阳风速度与地磁扰动强度之间存在较强的相关性,而高速流中太阳风速度与冕洞面积比关系不大,与冕洞亮度存在一定相关性;冕洞的经度跨度与地磁扰动持续时间存在很强的正相关性.      

Solar X-ray and EUV corona and their relation to the magnetic activity

We have studied the solar magnetic cycle in corona using X-ray data from YOHKOH and Extreme Ultraviolet data from SOHO/EIT. Soft X-ray data last the period from after the maximum cycle 22 to the maximum cycle 23 (1991–2001). The SOHO/EIT Extreme Ultraviolet data are used for the period from 1996 to 2003. These data provide us a unique opportunity to look at the solar corona on the solar disc and to compare with the magnetic activity, directly.Our studies reveal a close relationship between the coronal emissions and the photospheric magnetic field in the axisymmetrical case. The evolution of coronal structures in X-ray and EUV can be considered as a proxy of the coronal magnetic field and demonstrates a development of the solar magnetic cycle in corona. It is shown that the most important feature of the coronal cycle is the forming of giant loops structure visible in X-ray and, partially, in EUV (284A) on the solar disk.     

Solar proton enhancements in different energy channels and coronal mass ejections during the last solar cycle

The main properties of 11622 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission’s Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO-C2) from January 1996 through December 2006 are considered. Moreover, the extended database of solar proton enhancements (SPEs) with proton flux >0.1 pfu at energy >10 MeV measured at the Earth’s orbit is also studied. A comparison of these databases gives new results concerning the sources and acceleration mechanisms of solar energetic particles. Specifically, coronal mass ejections with width >180° (wide) and linear speed >800 km/s (fast) seem they have the best correlation with solar proton enhancements. The study of some specific solar parameters, such as soft X-ray flares, sunspot numbers, solar flare index etc. has showed that the soft X-ray flares with importance >M5 may provide a reasonable proxy index for the SPE production rate. From this work, it is outlined that the good relation of the fast and wide coronal mass ejections to proton enhancements seems to lead to a similar conclusion. In spite of the fact that in the case of CMEs the statistics cover only the last solar cycle, while the measurements of SXR flares are extended over three solar cycles, it is obvious for the studied period that the coronal mass ejections can also provide a good index for the solar proton production.     

太阳活动下降期的日冕大尺度磁场和冕洞分布

本文应用十八、十九周下降期的地磁观测资料导出了对应时期太阳风速度的卡林顿经度变化,并结合由极盖区地磁观测导出的行星际磁扇形结构确定十八、十九周下降期太阳南北磁极极性、类偶极点的太阳余纬和卡林顿经度,从而确定了该时期的冕洞分布,并与二十周冕洞分布进行比较.      

The effects of the solar magnetic polarity and the solar wind velocity on Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field

We have studied the effect of both solar magnetic polarity and the solar wind velocity on the Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field, IMFBz, for the minimum activity of the solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. We made a statistical study of IMFBz in the first section which is considered as an extension of Lyatsky et al. (2003). They made a statistical study of IMFBz for two periods of minimum solar activity 22 and 23 related to 1985–1987 and 1995–1997 when the solar magnetic field had opposite polarity. Our results seem to be consistent with the results obtained by Lyatsky et al. (2003). We found that there is a dependence of IMFBz on the IMFBx and the solar magnetic polarity for the minimum periods of the selected four solar cycles. In addition, we found that there is a dependence of IMFBz on the solar wind velocity.     

EUV coronal pattern of complexes of solar activity

Studying of the coronal plasma associated with long-lived complexes of the solar activity is important for understanding a relationship between the magnetic activity and the solar corona changing during the solar cycle.

In the present paper, two long-lived complexes of the solar activity at the beginning of the current solar cycle 23 are investigated by using the Extreme-Ultraviolet data (EUV) from SOHO/EIT. For this purpose the EIT limb synoptic maps during the CR1916–CR1919 (11 November 1996–1 March 1997) are obtained.

The coronal temperature structures derived from the three lines 171A (Fe IX,X), 195A (Fe XII)and 284A (Fe XV) are investigated by applying an algorithm developed by Zhang et al. [Zhang, J., White, S.M., Kundu, M.R. ApJ 527, 977, 1999]. Standard EIT software are used for the temperature estimation from the ratio of two lines of Fe IX,X and Fe XII.

The method of the rotational tomography with a correction for an inclination of the Earth’s orbit (B-angle) to the helioequator is applied to obtain the three-dimensional (3-D) coronal structure of the complex of the solar activity. The results reveal difference in temperature structures related to multi-poles magnetic structures of the complex of solar activity and to the typical, the bipolar activity complex.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Relative ion Fe,C and O abundances in quiet time particle fluxes in the 23 SC

Using ACE and SOHO data the origin of quiet-time low-energy particle fluxes at 1 AU is studied in the 23rd solar cycle. One of the selection criteria of quiet-time periods is to demand that H/He < 10 provided that periods with noticeable contribution of remnants of gradual events have been excluded from consideration. Our results suggest different origin of 0.03–3 MeV/nucleon particles – different seed populations accelerated and different acceleration processes. During the ascending, maximum and descending phases of solar activity quiet-time ions consist of coronal particles accelerated to suprathermal energies in about a half of the quiet periods, the rest of quiet-time fluxes originates from particle acceleration in processes similar to those in small impulsive solar flares rich in Fe. At solar minimum the bulk solar wind particles serve as seed population.     

Properties and relationship between solar eruptive flares and Coronal Mass Ejections during rising phase of Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Statistical relationship between major flares and the associated CMEs during rising phases of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 are studied. Totally more than 6000 and 10,000 CMEs were observed by SOHO/LASCO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) during 23rd [May 1996–June 2002] and 24th [December 2008–December 2014] solar cycles, respectively. In particular, we studied the relationship between properties of flares and CMEs using the limb events (longitude 70–85°) to avoid projection effects of CMEs and partial occultation of flares that occurred near 90°. After selecting a sample of limb flares, we used certain spatial and temporal constraints to find the flare-CME pairs. Using these constraints, we compiled 129 events in Solar Cycle 23 and 92 events in Solar Cycle 24. We compared the flare-CME relationship in the two solar cycles and no significant differences are found between the two cycles. We only found out that the CME mean width was slightly larger and the CME mean acceleration was slightly higher in cycle 24, and that there was somewhat a better relation between flare flux and CME deceleration in cycle 24 than in cycle 23.     

Comparison of heliospheric conditions near the earth during four recent solar maxima

Statistical properties of the daily averaged values of the solar activity (sunspot numbers, total solar irradiance and 10.7 cm radio emission indices), the solar wind plasma and the interplanetary magnetic field parameters near the Earth’s orbit are investigated for a period from 1964 to 2002 covering the maxima of four solar cycles from 20th to 23rd. Running half-year averages show significant solar cycle variations in the solar activity indices but only marginal and insignificant changes in comparison with background fluctuations for heliospheric bulk plasma and magnetic field parameters. The current 23rd cycle maximum is weaker than 21st and 22nd maxima, but slightly stronger than 20th cycle in most of solar and heliospheric manifestations.     

Specific features of the high-speed plasma stream cycles

The high-speed plasma streams in the solar wind are investigated during the solar cycles nos. 20–22 (1964–1996), separately on the two types of streams according to their solar origin: the HSPS produced by coronal holes (co-rotating) and the flare-generated, in keeping with the classification made in different catalogues. The analysis is performed taking into account the following high-speed stream parameters: the durations (in days), the maximum velocities, the velocity gradients and, the importance of the streams. The time variation of these parameters and the high-speed plasma streams occurrence rate show an 11-year periodicity with some differences between the solar cycles considered. A detailed analysis of the high-speed stream 11-year cycles is made by comparison with the “standard” cycles of the sunspot relative number (Wolf number). The different behaviour of the high-speed stream parameters between even and odd solar cycles could be due to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The increased activity of the high-speed plasma streams on the descendant phases of the cycles, regardless of their solar sources, proves the existence of some special local conditions of the solar plasma and the magnetic field on a large scale that allow the ejection of the high energy plasma streams. This fact has led us to the analysis the stream parameters during the different phases of the solar cycles (minimum, ascendant, maximum and, descendant) as well as during the polar magnetic field reversal intervals. The differences between the phases considered are pointed out. The solar cycles 20 and 22 reveal very similar dynamics of the flare-generated and also co-rotating stream parameters during the maximum, descendant and reversal intervals. This fact could be due to their position in a Hale Cycle (the first component of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle). The 21st solar cycle dominance of all co-rotating stream parameters against the 20th and 22nd solar cycle ones, during almost all phases, could be due to the same structure of a Hale Cycle – solar cycle 21 is the second component in a 22-year SC. During the reversal intervals, all high-speed stream parameters have comparable values with the ones of the maximum phases of the cycles even if this interval contains a small part of the descendant branch (solar cycles 20 and 22).     

Variations of mid-term periodicities in solar activity physical phenomena

In this work we make an analysis of significant periodicities shown by phenomena linked to solar activity such as coronal hole area, radio emission in the 10.7 cm band and sunspots. We use the wavelet method that gives information in the frequency and time domains. Of particular interest are the mid-term periodicities (1–2 yrs). Over the whole period, coronal holes and radio variations show an important annual variation and a quasi-biannual periodicity. The increase in these variations is most important around the years of maximum solar activity. When the time series are separated in low and high frequencies, the latter are modulated by the general solar cycle. Although somewhat shifted in frequency, these periodicities might well correspond with those found in cosmic ray intensity, solar magnetic flux and other terrestrial and interplanetary phenomena as a wavelet coherence analysis of these series with the solar magnetic flux reveals.     

Tilts and polarity separation in the sunspot groups and active regions at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23

The Solar Feature Catalogues for sunspots and active regions measured with SOHO/MDI instrument and Ca II K3 spectroheliograph of the Paris-Meudon Observatory are analyzed with the automated classification technique for sunspot groups and active region polarities. We report the first classification results for daily variations of tilt angles (normal and trigonometric ones) in sunspot groups (SG) and active (AR) regions in the cycle 23. The average normal tilts are presented for every year at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23 which are similar to those deduced by other authors for the cycles 19–22. The normal tilts of both the sunspot groups and active regions are shown to increase in the ascending phase and a decrease in the descending phase. Similar to SG and AR areas, the trigonometric tilts are shown to have the noticeable North–South asymmetry with the Southern hemisphere dominant in the selected ascending and descending periods. The normal tilt variations with latitude follow Joy’s law revealing a periodicity along the meridian of about 10° and reaching the maximum of 14° at the latitude of about 32° corresponding to the top of the ‘royal zone’ where the sunspots appear. The variations of polarity separation with a latitude are in an anti-phase with those of the tilts reaching a maximum at the latitude of 35° and showing a small positive separation for the groups/active regions in a vicinity of the average tilts ±40°. The ratio R of the polarity separation to the trigonometric tilt fits the linear function of a latitude φ as R = −0.0213φ − 0.1245 confirming positive separation for the polarities of active regions with the average tilts, or the dominance of activity in the Southern hemisphere activity, for the selected period of observations.     

Preliminary forecast for the peak of solar activity cycle 24

Our forecast for the development phase of solar cycle 23 came out to be true; one of the very few to have attained this status out of several forecasts made. We review the details of the forecast and how it fared as the events unfolded in time. We note the present status of IMF intensity B and the planetary index Ap. We draw inferences as to what to expect for the development phase of cycle 24; several forecasts have already been made, they cover all possible scenarios, ranging from a very active to the quietest cycle in a century. Our preliminary forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at cycle 24 maximum is 101 ± 5, indicating that cycle 24 will be about 20% less active than cycle 23; the possibility that next three solar cycles may be progressively less active cannot be ruled out.     

Effect of solar activity on the repetitiveness of some meteorological phenomena

In this paper we research the relationship between solar activity and the weather on Earth. This research is based on the assumption that every ejection of magnetic field energy and particles from the Sun (also known as Solar wind) has direct effects on the Earth’s weather. The impact of coronal holes and active regions on cold air advection (cold fronts, precipitation, and temperature decrease on the surface and higher layers) in the Belgrade region (Serbia) was analyzed. Some active regions and coronal holes appear to be in a geo-effective position nearly every 27 days, which is the duration of a solar rotation. A similar period of repetitiveness (27–29 days) of the passage of the cold front, and maximum and minimum temperatures measured at surface and at levels of 850 and 500 hPa were detected. We found that 10–12 days after Solar wind velocity starts significantly increasing, we could expect the passage of a cold front. After eight days, the maximum temperatures in the Belgrade region are measured, and it was found that their minimum values appear after 12–16 days. The maximum amount of precipitation occurs 14 days after Solar wind is observed. A recurring period of nearly 27 days of different phases of development for hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma was found. This analysis confirmed that the intervals of time between two occurrences of some particular meteorological parameter correlate well with Solar wind and A index.     

Solar wind turbulence during the solar cycle deduced from Galileo coronal radio-sounding experiments

Seven coronal radio-sounding campaigns were carried out during the active lifetime of the Galileo spacecraft in the years 1994–2002. The observational data analyzed in the present work are S-band frequency fluctuation measurements recorded during the solar conjunctions at different phases of solar activity cycle #23, specifically: periods near solar maximum (three conjunctions), near solar minimum (three conjunctions) and during the ascending phase (one conjunction). These data are all applicable to low heliographic latitudes, i.e. to the slow solar wind. The rms frequency fluctuation and power-law index of the frequency fluctuation temporal spectra are determined as a function of heliocentric distance. The turbulence power spectrum tends to be flatter inside ca. 20 solar radii during all phases of the solar cycle. This coincides with a transition in the flow from the inner acceleration region to the outer region of constant velocity. The radial falloff rate and absolute level of the rms frequency fluctuation are essentially invariant over the solar cycle.