Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A_p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A_p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.     

Synoptic magnetic field in cycle 23 and in the beginning of the cycle 24

The SOHO/MDI data provide the uniform time series of the synoptic magnetic maps which cover the period of the cycle 23 and the beginning of the cycle 24. It is very interesting period because of the long and deep solar minimum between the cycles 23 and 24. Synoptic structure of the solar magnetic field shows variability during solar cycles. It is known that the magnetic activity contributes to the solar irradiance. The axisymmetrical distribution of the magnetic flux (Fig. 3c) is closely associated with the ‘butterfly’ diagram in the EUV emission (Benevolenskaya et al., 2001). And, also, the magnetic field (B_∥) shows the non-uniform distributions of the solar activity with longitude, so-called ‘active zones’, and ‘coronal holes’ in the mid-latitude. Polar coronal holes are forming after the solar maxima and they persist during the solar minima. SOHO/EIT data in the emission of Fe XII (195 Å) could be a proxy for the coronal holes tracking. The active longitudinal zones or active longitude exist due to the reappearance of the activity and it is clearly seen in the synoptic structure of the solar cycle. On the descending branch of the solar cycle 23 active zones are less pronounced comparing with previous cycles 20, 21 and 22. Moreover, the weak polar magnetic field precedes the long and deep solar minimum. In this paper we have discussed the development of solar cycles 23 and 24 in details.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Exploring the global shock scenario at multiple points between sun and earth: The solar transients launched on January 1 and September 23, 1978

We revisit the transient interplanetary events of January 1 and September 23, 1978. Using in-situ and remote sensing observations at locations widely separated in longitudes and distances from the Sun, we infer that in both cases the overall shock surface had a very fast “nose” region with speeds >900 and >1500 km⁻¹ in the January and September events, respectively, and much slower flank speeds (∼600 km⁻¹ or less), suggesting a shock surface with a strong speed gradient with heliospheric longitude. The shock-nose regions are thus likely efficient acceleration sites of MeV ions, even at 1 AU from the Sun. Our 3D magnetohydrodynamics modeling suggests that a 24° × 24° localized disturbance at 18 solar radii injecting momentum 100 times the background solar wind input over 1 h can produce a disturbance in semi-quantitative agreement with the observed shock arrival time, plasma density and velocity time series in the January 1978 event.     

Forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms

Long-term forecast of space weather allows in achieving a longer lead time for taking the necessary precautions against disturbances. Hence, there is a need for long-term forecasting of space weather. We studied the possibility for a long-term forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms recur with an approximate 27-day period during the declining phase of a solar cycle. These disturbances are caused by the passage of corotating interaction regions, which are formed by interactions between the background slow-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole. In this study, we report on the performance of 27-day-ahead forecasts of the recurrent geomagnetic disturbances using Kp index. The methods of the forecasts are on the basis of persistence, autoregressive model, and categorical forecast using occurrence probability. The forecasts show better performance during the declining phase of a solar cycle than other phases. The categorical forecast shows the probability of detection (POD) more than 0.5 during the declining phase. Transition of the performance occurs sharply among the declining phases and other phases.     

Variations of the solar acoustic high-degree mode frequencies over solar cycle 23

Using full-disk observations obtained with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft, we present variations of the solar acoustic mode frequencies caused by the solar activity cycle. High-degree (100 < ? < 900) solar acoustic modes were analyzed using global helioseismology analysis techniques over most of solar cycle 23. We followed the methodology described in details in [Korzennik, S.G., Rabello-Soares, M.C., Schou, J. On the determination of Michelson Doppler Imager high-degree mode frequencies. ApJ 602, 481–515, 2004] to infer unbiased estimates of high-degree mode parameters ([see also Rabello-Soares, M.C., Korzennik, S.G., Schou, J. High-degree mode frequencies: changes with solar cycle. ESA SP-624, 2006]). We have removed most of the known instrumental and observational effects that affect specifically high-degree modes. We show that the high-degree changes are in good agreement with the medium-degree results, except for years when the instrument was highly defocused. We analyzed and discuss the effect of defocusing on high-degree estimation. Our results for high-degree modes confirm that the frequency shift scaled by the relative mode inertia is a function of frequency and it is independent of degree.     

Behavior of the atomic oxygen 557.7 nm atmospheric emission in the solar cycle 23

We present the results of nightglow observation of the atomic oxygen 557.7 nm line emission in the solar cycle 23. We use the experimental data obtained at Geophysical observatory near Irkutsk (52°N, 103°E), Russia, for the 1997–2006 period. The 557.7 nm emission observations data are compared with atmospheric and solar parameters. We note a difference in correlation coefficients between the 557.7 nm emission intensity and the solar activity indices in different phases of the solar cycle. Airglow observation results are compared with the observational data obtained by other authors.     

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Relative ion Fe,C and O abundances in quiet time particle fluxes in the 23 SC

Using ACE and SOHO data the origin of quiet-time low-energy particle fluxes at 1 AU is studied in the 23rd solar cycle. One of the selection criteria of quiet-time periods is to demand that H/He < 10 provided that periods with noticeable contribution of remnants of gradual events have been excluded from consideration. Our results suggest different origin of 0.03–3 MeV/nucleon particles – different seed populations accelerated and different acceleration processes. During the ascending, maximum and descending phases of solar activity quiet-time ions consist of coronal particles accelerated to suprathermal energies in about a half of the quiet periods, the rest of quiet-time fluxes originates from particle acceleration in processes similar to those in small impulsive solar flares rich in Fe. At solar minimum the bulk solar wind particles serve as seed population.     

Transient variations of vertical total electron content over some African stations from 2002 to 2012

This paper presents the vertical total electron content vTEC variations for three African stations, located at mid-low and equatorial latitudes, and operating since more than 10 years. The vTEC of the middle latitude GPS station in Alexandria, Egypt (31.2167°N; 29.9667°E, geographic) is compared to the vTEC of two others GPS stations: the first one in Rabat/Morocco (33.9981°N; 353.1457°E, geographic), and the second in Libreville/Gabon (0.3539°N; 9.6721°E, geographic). Our results discussed the diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle dependences of vTEC at the local ionospheric conditions, during different phases of solar cycle in the light of the classification of Legrand and Simon. The vTEC over Alexandria exhibits the well-known equinoctial asymmetry which changes with the phases of the solar cycle; the spring vTEC is larger than that of autumn during the maximum, decreasing and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. During the increasing phase of solar cycle 24, it is the contrary. The diurnal variation of the vTEC presents multiple maxima during the equinox from 2005 to 2008 and during the summer solstice from 2006 to 2012. A nighttime vTEC enhancement and winter anomaly are also observed. During the deep solar minimum (2006–2009) the diurnal variation of the vTEC observed over Alexandria is similar to the diurnal variation observed during quiet magnetic period at equatorial latitudes. We observed also that the amplitude of vTEC at Libreville is larger than the amplitude of vTEC observed at Alexandria and Rabat, indeed Libreville is near the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionization anomaly. Finally, the correlation coefficient between vTEC and the sunspot number Rz is high and changes with solar cycle phases.     

Actors of the main activity in large complex centres during the 23 solar cycle maximum

During the maximum of Solar Cycle 23, large active regions had a long life, spanning several solar rotations, and produced large numbers of X-class flares and CMEs, some of them associated to magnetic clouds (MCs). This is the case for the Halloween active regions in 2003. The most geoeffective MC of the cycle (Dst = −457) had its source during the disk passage of one of these active regions (NOAA 10501) on 18 November 2003. Such an activity was presumably due to continuous emerging magnetic flux that was observed during this passage. Moreover, the region exhibited a complex topology with multiple domains of different magnetic helicities. The complexity was observed to reach such unprecedented levels that a detailed multi-wavelength analysis is necessary to precisely identify the solar sources of CMEs and MCs. Magnetic clouds are identified using in situ measurements and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. Results from these two different sets of data are also compared.     

Intermediate-term periodicities in relativistic solar electron fluences during solar cycles 22 and 23

In this paper, we have investigated the intermediate-term periodicities of the relativistic (E > 10 MeV) solar electron flares measured by IMP-8 satellite of NASA for the time period of 1986–2001. This period of investigation includes the entire solar cycle 22; ascending, maximum and a part of descending phase of the current solar cycle 23. To determine accurately the occurrence rate of electron flux, we have employed three different spectral decomposition techniques, viz. fast Fourier transformation (FFT); maximum entropy method (MEM) and Lomb–Scargle periodogram analysis method. For solar cycle 22, in the low frequency range, power spectrum analysis exhibits statistically significant periodicities at ∼706, ∼504 and ∼392 days. In the intermediate frequency range, we have found a series of significant periodicities ∼294, ∼221, ∼153, ∼86, ∼73 and ∼66 days. For short term, periodicities of ∼21–23, ∼31 and ∼37 days were found in power spectrum. When solar cycle 23 is considered the significant periodicities are ∼20, ∼23, ∼29, ∼39, ∼54, ∼63, ∼118, ∼133 and ∼154 days. These results provide evidence that the best known Rieger period (∼153 days), appeared in the high energetic electron flux data for cycle 22 and also likely during maxima of cycle 23. The existence of these periodicities has been discussed in the light of earlier results.     

A new approach to solar cycle forecasting

We describe a novel approach for determining the timing of the solar cycle and tracking its evolution relative to other cycles. This method also has predictive capability for forecasting the cycle “onset.” Based on current trends, we expect that Cycle 23 will be about 1 year longer than the previous two cycles.     

Height of shock formation in the solar corona inferred from observations of type II radio bursts and coronal mass ejections

Employing coronagraphic and EUV observations close to the solar surface made by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission, we determined the heliocentric distance of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the starting time of associated metric type II bursts. We used the wave diameter and leading edge methods and measured the CME heights for a set of 32 metric type II bursts from solar cycle 24. We minimized the projection effects by making the measurements from a view that is roughly orthogonal to the direction of the ejection. We also chose image frames close to the onset times of the type II bursts, so no extrapolation was necessary. We found that the CMEs were located in the heliocentric distance range from 1.20 to 1.93 solar radii (Rs), with mean and median values of 1.43 and 1.38 Rs, respectively. We conclusively find that the shock formation can occur at heights substantially below 1.5 Rs. In a few cases, the CME height at type II onset was close to 2 Rs. In these cases, the starting frequency of the type II bursts was very low, in the range 25–40 MHz, which confirms that the shock can also form at larger heights. The starting frequencies of metric type II bursts have a weak correlation with the measured CME/shock heights and are consistent with the rapid decline of density with height in the inner corona.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

Occurrence rate of SAR arcs during the 23rd solar activity cycle

The occurrence rate of SAR arcs during 1997–2007 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57°N, 200°E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (∼500 h) during ∼370 nights of observations (∼3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration probability corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, intervals of UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of SAR arc observations at the Yakutsk meridian are presented.     

Viewing radiation signatures of solar energetic particles in interplanetary space

A current serious limitation on the studies of solar energetic particle (SEP) events is that their properties in the inner heliosphere are studied only through in situ spacecraft observations. Our understanding of spatial distributions and temporal variations of SEP events has come through statistical studies of many such events over several solar cycles. In contrast, flare SEPs in the solar corona can be imaged through their radiative and collisional interactions with solar fields and particles. We suggest that the heliospheric SEPs may also interact with heliospheric particles and fields to produce signatures which can be remotely observed and imaged. A challenge with any such candidate signature is to separate it from that of flare SEPs. The optimum case for imaging high-energy (E > 100 MeV) heliospheric protons may be the emission of π⁰-decay γ-rays following proton collisions with solar wind (SW) ions. In the case of E > 1 MeV electrons, gyrosynchrotron radio emission may be the most readily detectible remote signal. In both cases we may already have observed one or two such events. Another radiative signature from nonthermal particles may be resonant transition radiation, which has likely already been observed from solar flare electrons. We discuss energetic neutrons as another possible remote signature, but we rule out γ-ray line and 0.511 MeV positron annihilation emission as observable signatures of heliospheric energetic ions. We are already acquiring global signatures of large inner-heliospheric SW density features and of heliosheath interactions between the SW and interstellar neutral ions. By finding an appropriate observable signature of remote heliospheric SEPs, we could supplement the in situ observations with global maps of energetic SEP events to provide a comprehensive view of SEP events.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

Response of the mesopause temperatures to solar activity over Yakutia in 1999–2013

OH(6-2) rotational temperature trends and solar cycle effects are studied. Observations were carried out at the Maimaga station (63.04°N, 129.51°E) for the period August 1999 to March 2013. Measurements were conducted with an infrared spectrograph. Temperatures were determined from intensity ratios in the P branch of the OH band. The monthly average residuals of temperature after the subtraction of the mean seasonal variation were used for a search for the solar component of temperature response. The dependence of temperatures on solar activity has been investigated using the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux as a proxy. A linear regression fitting on residual temperatures yields a solar cycle coefficient of 4.24 ± 1.39 K/100 solar flux units (SFU). The cross-correlation analyses showed that changes of the residual temperature follow changes of solar activity with a quasi-two year delay (25 months). The temperature response at the delay of 25 months reaches 7 K/100 SFU. The possible reason of the observed delay can be an influence of quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the atmosphere on the relation of temperature and solar activity. The value of the temperature trend after the subtraction of seasonal and solar components is not statistically significant.