Orbit improvement for GTO objects using follow-up observations

The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern was and is conducting several search campaigns for space debris in the geostationary ring (GEO) and the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). First tests to build up a catalogue of satellites and space debris were performed recently. As the discovery observations of an object usually cover a time interval of a few minutes only, the first orbits determined are assumed to be circular. For GEO objects a circular orbit is a rather good approximation. This is certainly not the case for GTO objects. Nevertheless, a circular orbit seems to be an acceptable approximation for a short time interval around the observations. The first orbits can be used to acquire follow-up observations, which allow the determination of elliptical orbits. The maximum allowed time span between the detection and the follow-up for a successful recovery is found using simulated GTO orbits and observations. Further follow-up observations are simulated in order to study the orbit improvement process and the required force model. The accuracy of orbits needed to build up a catalogue is studied. The simulations are compared to the results achieved with observations acquired by the 1 m telescope on Tenerife.     

气动辅助异面变轨在多碎片清除中的应用分析

碎片清除飞行器异面变轨需要消耗大量燃料.从气动辅助异面变轨优化设计及被清除碎片轨道高度差值、倾角差值等参数对变轨性能的影响出发,比较分析了优化气动辅助异面变轨与双脉冲霍曼轨道转移的燃料节约量,研究了不同轨道高度差对于实施气动辅助变轨燃料节约量的影响.当地球静止轨道（GEO）与低地轨道（LEO）间气动辅助变轨优化速度增量约为1.55km·s-1、质量面积比172kg·m-2、比冲310s、轨道倾角变化16°时,燃料节约率约为45%.对比研究了不同轨道高度差LEO轨道间实施气动辅助变轨的燃料节约情况.结果表明:随着轨道高度的增加,气动辅助优化效率逐渐降低;在相同高度轨道间实施异面变轨,随着轨道倾角的增加,气动辅助变轨燃料节约率先增大后减小,倾角改变量约为20°时,燃料节约率最大;当轨道倾角为5°时,采用气动辅助变轨和双脉冲变轨的燃料消耗量相同.      

Association of optical tracklets from a geosynchronous belt survey via the direct Bayesian admissible region approach

The direct Bayesian admissible region approach is an a priori state free measurement association and initial orbit determination technique for optical tracks. In this paper, we test a hybrid approach that appends a least squares estimator to the direct Bayesian method on measurements taken at the Zimmerwald Observatory of the Astronomical Institute at the University of Bern. Over half of the association pairs agreed with conventional geometric track correlation and least squares techniques. The remaining pairs cast light on the fundamental limits of conducting tracklet association based solely on dynamical and geometrical information.     

基于仅光学观测的短弧关联分析方法

初始轨道确定是空间目标编目的一个重要部分，尤其在光学仅角度观测下是极具挑战性的。光学观测在短弧的情况下很难进行有效的初轨确定，解决短弧问题的一个重要手段是将不同时刻获取到的短弧数据进行关联匹配，找到属于同一个目标的观测数据。以容许域的方法为基础，通过找到拟合多组观测数据的最优轨道的方式来确定角度预测值和角度测量真实值之间的最小误差。其次，根据对观测误差统计特性的研究，从理论上验证了线性化误差传播方式在短弧数据应用上的可行性，并给出合理的误差限，通过卡方检验的方式确定弧段之间的关联性。同时，给出了所提出的短弧关联分析方法应用于LEO，HEO，MEO，GEO轨道的结果，并描述了应用于长间隔低轨道目标观测数据上的困难，提出了用角度预报值的误差特性规律对低轨目标关联进行改进的方法，结果表明对于LEO观测短弧的关联性识别的成功率由原来的87%提升到99%。     

Near real-time BDS GEO satellite orbit determination and maneuver analysis with reversed point positioning

The Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellite is a crucial part of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) constellation. However, due to various perturbation forces acting on the GEO satellite, it drifts gradually over time. Thus, frequent orbit maneuvers are required to maintain the satellite at its designed position. During the orbit maneuver and recovery periods, the orbit quality of the maneuvered satellite computed with broadcast navigation ephemeris will be significantly degraded. Furthermore, the conventional dynamic Precise Orbit Determination (POD) approach may not work well, because of a lack of publicly available satellite information for modeling the thrust forces. In this paper, a near real-time approach free of thrust forces modeling is proposed for BDS GEO satellite orbit determination and maneuver analysis based on the Reversed Point Positioning (RPP). First, the station coordinates and receiver clock offsets are estimated by GPS/BDS combined Single Point Positioning (SPP) with single-frequency phase-smoothed pseudorange observations. Then, with the fixed station coordinates and receiver clock offsets, the RPP method can be conducted to determine the GEO satellite orbits. When no orbit maneuvers occur, the proposed method can obtain orbit accuracies of 0.92, 2.74, and 8.30?m in the radial, along-track, and cross-track directions, respectively. The average orbit-only Signal-In-Space Range Error (SISRE) is 1.23?m, which is slightly poorer than that of the broadcast navigation ephemeris. Using four days of GEO maneuvered datasets, it is further demonstrated that the derived orbits can be employed to characterize the behaviors of GEO satellite maneuvers, such as the time span of the maneuver as well as the satellite thrusting accelerations. These results prove the efficiency of the proposed method for near real-time GEO satellite orbit determination during maneuvers.     

An optimization approach for observation association with systemic uncertainty applied to electro-optical systems

The observation to observation measurement association problem for dynamical systems can be addressed by determining if the uncertain admissible regions produced from each observation have one or more points of intersection in state space. An observation association method is developed which uses an optimization based approach to identify local Mahalanobis distance minima in state space between two uncertain admissible regions. A binary hypothesis test with a selected false alarm rate is used to assess the probability that an intersection exists at the point(s) of minimum distance. The systemic uncertainties, such as measurement uncertainties, timing errors, and other parameter errors, define a distribution about a state estimate located at the local Mahalanobis distance minima. If local minima do not exist, then the observations are not associated. The proposed method utilizes an optimization approach defined on a reduced dimension state space to reduce the computational load of the algorithm. The efficacy and efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated on observation data collected from the Georgia Tech Space Object Research Telescope.     

低轨目标短弧关联的稳健方法

未来大量低轨星座部署一旦完成，将会对传统的空间目标监视提出更高的要求.广角光学望远镜系统具有广域监视效果，可以同时观测大量目标.但是广角望远镜的观测数据大部分属于“短弧”观测数据，单次观测无法进行空间目标的初始轨道确定.目前有效的解决方案是对光学观测弧段进行准确关联，融合多组观测数据进行初定轨.本文以容许域方法为基础，通过优化拟合两段观测短弧的轨道，结合卡方检验，确定不同观测弧段之间的关联性.其次详细描述了对于低轨目标，用仅测角观测数据进行关联的时候，存在的病态性问题.最后，针对低轨目标短弧关联错误率高的问题，提出了用角度误差特性规律进行误关联识别的方法.误关联的准确识别有效地提高了对于低轨空间目标仅光学观测序列的关联成功率，为后续的空间目标编目提供了有效的数据支撑.     

GEO/IGSO混合区域导航星座的设计与优化算法

区域导航星座能够以较低成本和较短时间获得目标区域导航能力，且地球同步轨道是构建非极区区域导航星座的重要轨道类型。提出一种基于GEO（地球静止轨道）和IGSO（倾斜地球同步轨道）的区域导航星座设计方法。基于星下点轨迹特性构造对称星座设计参数和优化参数集，并考虑地球扁率长期摄动影响，计算星座轨道参数。以导航服务区的统计GDOP（几何精度因子）为目标函数，利用差分进化算法构建星座优化模型。以印度IRNSS的7星星座为例，仿真检验了设计和优化算法的正确性，讨论了IRNSS星座优化构型和轨道类型选取。本方法采用的对称星座设计参数少，能够提升GEO/IGSO混合区域导航星座的全局优化效率，为后续非对称星座快速提供最佳星数和构型设计。     

On prediction of re-entry time of an upper stage from GTO

The evolution of objects in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) is determined by a complex interplay of atmospheric drag and luni-solar gravity. These orbits are highly eccentric (eccentricity >0.7) and have large variations in velocity and perturbations during a revolution. The periodic changes in the perigee altitudes of these orbits are mainly due to the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and the Moon. The re-entry time of the objects in such orbits is sensitive to the initial conditions. The aim of this paper is to study the re-entry time of the cryogenic stage of the Indian geo-synchronous launch vehicle, GSLV-F04/CS, which has been decaying since 2 September 2007 from initial orbit with eccentricity equal to 0.706. Two parameters, initial eccentricity and ballistic coefficient, are chosen for optimal estimation. It is known that the errors are more in eccentricity for the observations based on two line elements (TLEs). These two parameters are computed with response surface method using a genetic algorithm for the selected eight different zones, based on rough linear variation of the mean apogee altitude during 200 days orbit evolution. The study shows that the GSLV-F04/CS will re-enter between 5 December 2010 and 7 January 2011. The methodology is also applied to study the re-entry of six decayed objects (cryogenic stages of GSLV and Molniya satellites). Good agreement is noticed between the actual and the predicted re-entry times. The absolute percentage error in re-entry prediction time for all the six objects is found to be less than 7%. The present methodology is being adopted at Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) to predict the re-entry time of GSLV-F04/CS.     

地球同步轨道卫星混合推进转移轨道特性分析

以地球同步轨道卫星转移轨道设计为背景，针对全化学推进燃料消耗大和全电推进转移时间长的问题，开展了化学 电混合推进转移轨道优化设计与特性分析。首先，讨论了轨道倾角和近地点幅角变化对混合推进转移轨道的影响。研究表明，在混合推进优化设计中需要将轨道倾角作为优化变量之一。然后，以近地点半径、远地点半径、轨道倾角为优化变量生成搜索网格，得到过渡轨道集。针对每条过渡轨道，构建化学推进转移段和电推进转移段。其中化学推进段采用单圈兰伯特转移解算，电推进段采用混合法优化。最后，以燃料消耗和转移时间为指标，在搜索域内开展解算分析，研究了混合推进轨道在整个搜索域内的变化趋势。该方法可以提供具有不同燃料消耗和转移时间的混合推进转移解集，拓宽了解空间，可供轨道设计人员根据任务约束灵活选用。     

基于自适应滤波的编队卫星实时相对定轨

提出基于自适应滤波的编队卫星实时相对定轨算法,利用2005-12-09—10两颗GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment）卫星的GPS（Global Positioning System）实测数据进行实时相对定轨试验计算,采用JPL（Jet Propulsion Laboratory）轨道对试验结果外部检核,结果表明:①自适应滤波相对定轨通过自适应因子,可以较好地平衡编队卫星的观测信息和相对动力学信息,其相对定轨结果精度优于Kalman滤波相对定轨结果;②自适应滤波相对定轨结果随着星间基线缩短而精度提高;③两颗GRACE卫星采用单频伪距和广播星历进行自适应滤波相对定轨,可以得到精度优于6cm的星间基线。     

载人月球极地探测定点返回轨道设计

针对载人月球极地探测任务，对定点返回轨道优化设计问题进行了研究。根据月球极地轨道的特性，介绍了三种返回轨道机动方案。结合三脉冲变轨方案，采用了从初步计算到精确计算的串行求解策略，对定点返回轨道进行优化设计。初步计算阶段，建立了基于近月点伪参数的三段二体拼接模型，将三脉冲机动段与月球逃逸段解耦，求解轨道初值；精确计算阶段，提出了两段拼接方法，分别进行逆向和正向高精度数值积分。经过仿真测试，验证了该策略求解的有效性和准确性。最后，通过大量的仿真计算，分析了定点返回轨道的特性。研究结论对未来载人月球极地探测定点返回轨道方案的设计具有重要的参考价值。     

基于Gooding算法的天基光学目标跟踪定轨

开展了基于Gooding算法的400km天基平台光学目标监测的轨道确定研究，当测量误差为3”和6”时，分别对800，1500及36000km轨道高度目标进行初始轨道确定及轨道改进分析.仿真结果表明，利用400km轨道高度平台对800~1500km轨道高度目标进行初定轨，测量数据误差为3”~6”时，4~15min弧段的初定轨精度约在10km量级，1~2min弧段的初定轨精度约在100km量级；15min初定轨弧段轨道改进后误差在100m量级，弧段小于10min时轨道改进误差精度在km量级.利用400km轨道高度平台对36000km轨道高度目标进行初定轨，测量数据误差为3”时，15~20min弧段的初定轨精度约在数十km量级，8~10min弧段的初定轨精度在100km量级；轨道改进后误差在km量级.测量数据误差为6”时，20min弧段初定轨精度在10km量级，8~15min弧段初定轨精度在100km量级，轨道改进后误差精度在10km量级.      

天基可见光传感器卫星监视地球同步带目标的轨道设计

在分析地球同步轨道目标光学特性和位置特性的基础上, 确定了天基可见光(Space-Based Visible, SBV)传感器监视整个地球同步带目标的搜索栅栏位置以及搜索策略, 导出搜索栅栏与观测时间和观测次数之间的关系. 根据航天任务需求和SBV传感器特性, 确定了监视轨道的类型和参数约束条件, 给出了约束条件下监视轨道的选取范围, 并对其轨道观测效能进行仿真分析. 仿真结果表明, 通过适当选取监视轨道参数, 监视轨道对地球同步带的覆盖率均可达到90%以上. 如果SBV传感器视场达到4°×4°以上或搜索栅栏宽度大于40°, 其覆盖率高达95%以上.      

Space debris mitigation strategies and practices in geosynchronous transfer orbits

Missions to geosynchronous orbits remain one of the most important elements of space launch traffic, accounting for 40% of all missions to Earth orbit and beyond during the four-year period 2000–2003. The vast majority of these missions leave one or more objects in geosynchronous transfer orbits (GTOs), contributing on a short-term or long-term basis to the space debris population. National and international space debris mitigation guidelines seek to curtail the accumulation of debris in orbits which penetrate the regions of low Earth orbit and of geosynchronous orbit. The orbital lifetime of objects in GTO can be greatly influenced by the initial values of perigee, inclination, and right ascension of the orbital plane, leading to orbital lifetimes of from less than one month to more than 100 years. An examination of the characteristic GTOs employed by launch vehicles from around the world has been conducted. The consequences of using perigees above 300 km and super-synchronous apogees, typically above 40,000 km, have been identified. In addition, the differences in orbital behavior of launch vehicle stages and mission-related debris in GTOs have been investigated. Greater coordination and cooperation between space launch service providers and spacecraft designers and owners could significantly improve overall compliance with guidelines to mitigate the accumulation of debris in Earth orbit.     

单个航天器对Walker星座中多卫星的近距离接近

通过设计航天器轨道,可使航天器发射入轨后无需机动即实现对Walker星座中非共轨的多颗卫星的快速、近距离接近.给出了该轨道的搜索方法以及基于星座特性的代换法,并给出了仿真示例.      

Track-to-object association algorithm based on TLE filtering

This paper focuses on the track-to-object association problem based on the two-line elements (TLE) set. The TLE’s short-term propagation error characteristics are analyzed to capture its uncertainty. Further, a four-step track-to-object association algorithm is designed for the optical observation data. First, for too-short arc tracklets, a circular orbit determination algorithm is proposed to calculate the inclination and the right ascension of the ascending node. Second, the TLEs are filtered based on these results. Nearly 96% of the TLEs can be filtered, which significantly improves the association efficiency. The last two steps consist of two association processes. A first-order association process is implemented first to get candidate objects, with the angles root mean square error as the metric. Then a precise association process checks the candidate objects and gives the final association result. The proposed approach is tested with simulated and observed data, respectively. With simulated data, the true positive rate is 98.7%. With the observed data, the association results were validated using the precise orbit ephemerides.     

Integrated guidance and control for solar sail station-keeping with optical degradation

Current control approaches for solar sail station-keeping on libration point orbits have not considered the degradation of the sail’s optical properties. However, significant optical degradation could lead to poor station-keeping performance or even complete failure. This paper presents an integrated guidance and control strategy to address this problem by updating the reference orbit based on in situ estimation. An exponential optical degradation model is incorporated into the solar radiation acceleration model, and an on-line reference orbit update approach is incorporated into the station-keeping, coupled with an active disturbance rejection controller. The reflection coefficient is estimated on-line and the reference orbit is updated discretely when the optical properties have degraded by a prescribed amount. This strategy provides discrete updates to the reference orbits such that the perturbation due to the optical degradation is maintained within a small range. These smaller perturbations can be dealt with by the controller’s robustness and station-keeping can be sustained for long durations even in the presence of large optical degradation.     

Bayesian linking of geosynchronous orbital debris tracks as seen by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

We describe a Bayesian sampling model for linking and constraining orbit models from angular observations of “streaks” in optical telescope images. Our algorithm is particularly suited to situations where the observation times are small fractions of the orbital periods of the observed objects or when there is significant confusion of objects in the observation field. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of multiple orbit models (up to the number of observed tracks) and parameters describing which tracks are linked with which orbit models. Using this algorithm, we forecast the constraints on geosynchronous (GEO) debris orbits achievable with the planned Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). Because of the short 15 s exposure times, preliminary orbit determinations of GEO objects from LSST will have large and degenerate errors on the orbital elements. Combined with the expected crowded fields of GEO debris it will be challenging to reliably link orbital tracks in LSST observations given the currently planned observing cadence.     

Heliotropic dust rings for Earth climate engineering

This paper examines the concept of a Sun-pointing elliptical Earth ring comprised of dust grains to offset global warming. A new family of non-Keplerian periodic orbits, under the effects of solar radiation pressure and the Earth’s J₂ oblateness perturbation, is used to increase the lifetime of the passive cloud of particles and, thus, increase the efficiency of this geoengineering strategy. An analytical model is used to predict the orbit evolution of the dust ring due to solar-radiation pressure and the J₂ effect. The attenuation of the solar radiation can then be calculated from the ring model. In comparison to circular orbits, eccentric orbits yield a more stable environment for small grain sizes and therefore achieve higher efficiencies when the orbit decay of the material is considered. Moreover, the novel orbital dynamics experienced by high area-to-mass ratio objects, influenced by solar radiation pressure and the J₂ effect, ensure the ring will maintain a permanent heliotropic shape, with dust spending the largest portion of time on the Sun facing side of the orbit. It is envisaged that small dust grains can be released from a circular generator orbit with an initial impulse to enter an eccentric orbit with Sun-facing apogee. Finally, a lowest estimate of 1 × 10¹² kg of material is computed as the total mass required to offset the effects of global warming.