基于仅光学观测的短弧关联分析方法

初始轨道确定是空间目标编目的一个重要部分，尤其在光学仅角度观测下是极具挑战性的。光学观测在短弧的情况下很难进行有效的初轨确定，解决短弧问题的一个重要手段是将不同时刻获取到的短弧数据进行关联匹配，找到属于同一个目标的观测数据。以容许域的方法为基础，通过找到拟合多组观测数据的最优轨道的方式来确定角度预测值和角度测量真实值之间的最小误差。其次，根据对观测误差统计特性的研究，从理论上验证了线性化误差传播方式在短弧数据应用上的可行性，并给出合理的误差限，通过卡方检验的方式确定弧段之间的关联性。同时，给出了所提出的短弧关联分析方法应用于LEO，HEO，MEO，GEO轨道的结果，并描述了应用于长间隔低轨道目标观测数据上的困难，提出了用角度预报值的误差特性规律对低轨目标关联进行改进的方法，结果表明对于LEO观测短弧的关联性识别的成功率由原来的87%提升到99%。

Short-arc correlation analysis method based on optical observations only

The initial orbit determination is important to cataloging the space objects. It is challenging to determine the initial orbit using optical angles only observations effectively. A prominent method to solve the short arc problem is to correlate and match the short arcs obtained at different times to find observations from the same object. Based on the admissible region, the minimum error between the predicted sequence and the actual observation sequence was calculated by finding the optimal orbit to fit multiple optical observations. Then, based on the study of the statistical characteristics of observation errors, the feasibility of the linearized error propagation method in applying short arc observations was theoretically verified and a reasonable error limit was given. The chi square test was used to determine the correlation between short arcs. At the same time, the results applying the proposed short arc correlation analysis method to LEO, HEO, MEO and GEO orbits were given. The difficulty of applying in the long interval low orbit object observations was described. Aiming at resolving this difficulty, a method was proposed to improve the low orbit observations association using the error characteristic law of the angle predicted value. The results show that the success rate of correlation recognition for LEO short arc observations has increased from 87% to 99%.