Measuring the Distribution of Ocean Mass Using GRACE

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which was successfully launched March 17, 2002, has the potential to create a new paradigm in satellite oceanography with an impact perhaps as large as was observed with the arrival of precision satellite altimetry via TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) in 1992. The simulations presented here suggest that GRACE will be able to monitor non-secular changes in ocean mass on a global basis with a spatial resolution of ≈500 km and an accuracy of ≈3 mm water equivalent. It should be possible to recover global mean ocean mass variations to an accuracy of ≈1 mm, possibly much better if the atmospheric pressure modeling errors can be reduced. We have not considered the possibly significant errors that may arise due to temporal aliasing and secular gravity variations. Secular signals from glacial isostatic adjustment and the melting of polar ice mass are expected to be quite large, and will complicate the recovery of secular ocean mass variations. Nevertheless, GRACE will provide unprecedented insight into the mass components of sea level change, especially when combined with coincident satellite altimeter measurements. Progress on these issues would provide new insight into the response of sea level to climate change. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Space Weather Research in China

Recent progress in space weather research are briefly presented here from three aspects: establishment or improvement in observation systems, such as extra-soft X-ray detector and γ-ray detector onboard the spacecraft ‘Shen Zhou 2’, new solar radio broad-band spectrometer, magnetometer-chain, ionosonde and digisonde–chain, laser-lidar system and VHF radar; partial topic progresses included in CMEs, multi-streamer structures, evolution of interplanetary magnetic field B _z component, regional properties of traveling ionospheric disturbances, a fully-nonlinear global dynamical model for the middle and upper atmosphere, and a combined prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances; and space weather activity, such as ‘Meridian Project’ — a national major scientific project, ‘International Space Weather Meridian Circle Program’ — a suggestion of internationalization of ‘Meridian Project’, ‘Space Weather Research Plan’ — a major research plan from National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC) and other space weather activities. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Observation of the interstellar helium cone by the NOZOMI spacecraft

‘The Japanese Mars probe, NOZOMI, is staying in the interplanetary space (1–1.5 AU) until its Mars’ orbit insertion scheduled in early 2004. Every 16 months on this interplanetary orbit the spacecraft crosses around 1 AU the ‘gravitational focusing cone’ of the interstellar helium, which are penetrating into the inner heliosphere under the solar gravity. During the first crossing of the cone in the season of March–May 2000, we observed these helium particles after the solar wind pickup process with an E/q type ion detector aboard NOZOMI. We have estimated the original temperature of the interstellar helium as 11 000 K. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Geomagnetic Tracing of the Inner Heliosphere

Historical data of the geomagnetic activity records in St. Petersburg since 1841 do not show any ‘doubling’ of the total magnetic field at the Sun as claimed recently by Lockwood et al. (1999). However, recurrent patterns of the geomagnetic activity variations display ‘secular’ trend of the solar wind near ecliptic plane resulting from gradual change of the topological structure of the solar corona (Ponyavin, 1997). By comparing geomagnetic and eclipse observations we found ‘typical’ coronal shapes, which correspond better to periods of extremely low and high geomagnetic activity level rather than standard sunspot activity referencing as ‘Corona at Solar Maximum or Minimum’. Using geomagnetic records as proxies it has been suggested that the maximum of the sunspot activity was in July 2000. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Error Characteristics Estimated from Champ,GRACE and GOCE Derived Geoids and from Satellite Altimetry Derived Mean Dynamic Topography

This paper presents a review of geoid error characteristics of three satellite gravity missions in view of the general problem of separating scientifically interesting signals from various noise sources. The problem is reviewed from the point of view of two proposed applications of gravity missions, one is the observation of the mean oceanic circulation whereby an improved geoid model is used as a reference surface against the long term mean sea level observed by altimetry. In this case we consider the presence of mesoscale variability during assimilation of derived surface currents in inverse models. The other experiment deals with temporal changes in the gravity field observed by GRACE in which case a proposed experiment is to monitor changes in the geoid in order to detect geophysical interesting signals such as variations in the continental hydrology and non-steric ocean processes. For this experiment we will address the problem of geophysical signal contamination and the way it potentially affects monthly geoid solutions of GRACE. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Towards Synthesis of Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Scaling Exponents: A Fractional Lévy Motion Model

Mandelbrot introduced the concept of fractals to describe the non-Euclidean shape of many aspects of the natural world. In the time series context, he proposed the use of fractional Brownian motion (fBm) to model non-negligible temporal persistence, the ‘Joseph Effect’; and Lévy flights to quantify large discontinuities, the ‘Noah Effect’. In space physics, both effects are manifested in the intermittency and long-range correlation which are by now well-established features of geomagnetic indices and their solar wind drivers. In order to capture and quantify the Noah and Joseph effects in one compact model, we propose the application of the ‘bridging’ fractional Lévy motion (fLm) to space physics. We perform an initial evaluation of some previous scaling results in this paradigm, and show how fLm can model the previously observed exponents. We suggest some new directions for the future.     

Lightning induced optical emissions in the ionosphere

A discussion of lightning induced optical emissions in the ionosphere is presented. Emphasis is placed on accounting for the puzzling observation of the spatial structure in the optical emissions and the Sprite ‘seeding’ before the development of the ‘tendrils’ (or streamers). In this context we discuss the generation of spatial brightness variations, within the required lightning parameter thresholds, due to spatio-temporal electric fields and spatial neutral density perturbations. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Space Weather in the Equatorial Ionosphere

The ‘scintillations’ observed on signals received in the equatorial region from GPS satellites are due to plasma instabilities in the F region of the ionosphere, also detected as spread F. These instabilities give rise to depletions of ionisation or ‘bubbles’. The occurrence of these events and their relation to the equatorial electrojet are reviewed. Possibilities of short-term forecasting are examined with particular attention to problems encountered in modelling the equatorial electrojet. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impact of Geoid Improvement on Ocean Mass and Heat Transport Estimates

One long-standing difficulty in estimating the large-scale ocean circulation is the inability to observe absolute current velocities. Both conventional hydrographic measurements and altimetric measurements provide observations of currents relative to an unknown velocity at a reference depth in the case of hydrographic data, and relative to mean currents calculated over some averaging period in the case of altimetric data. Space gravity missions together with altimetric observations have the potential to overcome this difficulty by providing absolute estimates of the velocity of surface oceanic currents. The absolute surface velocity estimates will in turn provide the reference level velocities that are necessary to compute absolute velocities at any depth level from hydrographic data. Several studies have been carried out to quantify the improvements expected from ongoing and future space gravity missions. The results of these studies in terms of volume flux estimates (transport of water masses) and heat flux estimates (transport of heat by the ocean) are reviewed in this paper. The studies are based on ocean inverse modeling techniques that derive impact estimates solely from the geoid error budgets of forthcoming space gravity missions. Despite some differences in the assumptions made, the inverse modeling calculations all point to significant improvements in estimates of oceanic fluxes. These improvements, measured in terms of reductions of uncertainties, are expected to be as large as a factor of 2. New developments in autonomous ocean observing systems will complement the developments expected from space gravity missions. The synergies of in situ and satellite observing systems are considered in the conclusion of this paper. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Present-Day Sea Level Change: Observations and Causes

We investigate climate-related processes causing variations of the global mean sea level on interannual to decadal time scale. We focus on thermal expansion of the oceans and continental water mass balance. We show that during the 1990s where global mean sea level change has been measured by Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry, thermal expansion is the dominant contribution to the observed 2.5 mm/yr sea level rise. For the past decades, exchange of water between continental reservoirs and oceans had a small, but not totally negligible contribution (about 0.2 mm/yr) to sea level rise. For the last four decades, thermal contribution is estimated to about 0.5 mm/yr, with a possible accelerated rate of thermosteric rise during the 1990s. Topex/Poseidon shows an increase in mean sea level of 2.5 mm/yr over the last decade, a value about two times larger than reported by historical tide gauges. This would suggest that there has been significant acceleration of sea level rise in the recent past, possibly related to ocean warming. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Complexity,Forced and/or Self-Organized Criticality,and Topological Phase Transitions in Space Plasmas

The first definitive observation that provided convincing evidence indicating certain turbulent space plasma processes are in states of ‘complexity’ was the discovery of the apparent power-law probability distribution of solar flare intensities. Recent statistical studies of complexity in space plasmas came from the AE index, UVI auroral imagery, and in-situ measurements related to the dynamics of the plasma sheet in the Earth's magnetotail and the auroral zone. In this review, we describe a theory of dynamical ‘complexity’ for space plasma systems far from equilibrium. We demonstrate that the sporadic and localized interactions of magnetic coherent structures are the origin of ‘complexity’ in space plasmas. Such interactions generate the anomalous diffusion, transport, acceleration, and evolution of the macroscopic states of the overall dynamical systems. Several illustrative examples are considered. These include: the dynamical multi- and cross-scale interactions of the macro-and kinetic coherent structures in a sheared magnetic field geometry, the preferential acceleration of the bursty bulk flows in the plasma sheet, and the onset of ‘fluctuation induced nonlinear instabilities’ that can lead to magnetic reconfigurations. The technique of dynamical renormalization group is introduced and applied to the study of two-dimensional intermittent MHD fluctuations and an analogous modified forest-fire model exhibiting forced and/or self-organized criticality [FSOC] and other types of topological phase transitions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Observations of Extended Radio Emission in Clusters

We review observations of extended regions of radio emission in clusters; these include diffuse emission in ‘relics’, and the large central regions commonly referred to as ‘halos’. The spectral observations, as well as Faraday rotation measurements of background and cluster radio sources, provide the main evidence for large-scale intracluster magnetic fields and significant densities of relativistic electrons. Implications from these observations on acceleration mechanisms of these electrons are reviewed, including turbulent and shock acceleration, and also the origin of some of the electrons in collisions of relativistic protons by ambient protons in the (thermal) gas. Improved knowledge of non-thermal phenomena in clusters requires more extensive and detailed radio measurements; we briefly review prospects for future observations.     

Resolution Needed for an Adequate Determination of the Mean Ocean Circulation from Altimetry and an Improved Geoid

The sea surface topography observed by satellite altimetry is a combination of the geoid and of the ocean dynamic topography. Satellite altimetry has thus the potential to supply quasi-global maps of mean sea surface heights from which the mean geostrophic surface ocean currents can be derived, provided that the geoid is known with a sufficient absolute accuracy. At present, however, given the limited accuracy of the best available geoid, altimetric mean sea surface topographies have been derived only up to degree 15 or so, i.e. for wavelengths of approximately 2000 km and larger. CHAMP, GRACE, and the future GOCE missions are dedicated to the improvement of the Earth's gravity field from space. Several studies have recently investigated the impact of these improvements for oceanography, concluding to reductions of uncertainties on the oceanic flux estimates as large as a factor of 2 in the regions of intense an narrow currents. The aim of this paper is to focus on what are the typical horizontal scales of the mean dynamic topography of the ocean, and to compare their characteristics to the error estimates expected from altimetry and these future geoids. It gives also an illustration of the oceanic features that will be resolved by the combination of altimetry and the GRACE and GOCE geoids. It further reassesses the very demanding requirements in term of accuracy and resolution agreed in the design of these new gravity missions for ocean science applications. The present study relies on recent very high-resolution numerical Ocean General Circulation Model simulations. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Combined Use of Altimetry and In Situ Gravity Data for Coastal Dynamics Studies

Accurate local geoids derived from in situ gravity data will be valuable in the validation of GOCE results. In addition it will be a challenge to use GOCE data in an optimal way, in combination with in situ gravity, to produce better local geoid solutions. This paper discusses the derivation of a new geoid over the NW European shelf, and its comparison with both tide gauge and altimetric sea level data, and with data from ocean models. It is hoped that over the next few years local geoid methods such as these can be extended to cover larger areas and to incorporate both in situ and satellite measured gravity data. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Data Grids and High Energy Physics: A Melbourne Perspective

The University of Melbourne, Experimental Particle Physics group recognises that the future of computing is an important issue for the scientific community. It is in the nature of research for the questions posed to become more complex, requiring larger computing resources for each generation of experiment. As institutes and universities around the world increasingly pool their resources and work together to solve these questions, the need arises for more sophisticated computing techniques. One such technique, grid computing, is under investigation by many institutes across many disciplines and is the focus of much development in the computing community. ‘The Grid’, as it is commonly named, is heralded as the future of computing for research, education, and industry alike. This paper will introduce the basic concepts of grid technologies including the Globus toolkit and data grids as of July 2002. It will highlight the challenges faced in developing appropriate resource brokers and schedulers, and will look at the future of grids within high energy physics. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

III: OCEAN CIRCULATION: Global Ocean Data Assimilation and Geoid Measurements

Parts of geodesy and physical oceanography are about to mature into a single modeling problem involving the simultaneous estimation of the marine geoid and the general circulation. Both fields will benefit. To this end, we present an ocean state estimation (data assimilation) framework which is designed to obtain a dynamically consistent picture of the changing ocean circulation by combining global ocean data sets of arbitrary type with a general circulation model (GCM). The impact of geoid measurements on such estimates of the ocean circulation are numerous. For the mean circulation, a precise geoid describes the reference frame for dynamical signals in altimetric sea surface height observations. For the time-varying ocean signal, changing geoid information might be a valuable new information about correcting the changing flow field on time scales from a few month to a year, but the quantitative utility of such information has not yet been demonstrated. For a consistent estimate, some knowledge of the prior error covariances of all data fields is required. The final result must be consistent with prior error estimates for the data. State estimation is thus one of the few quantitative consistency checks for new geoid measurements anticipated from forthcoming space missions. Practical quantitative methods will yield a best possible estimate of the dynamical sea surface which, when combined with satellite altimetric surfaces, will produce a best-estimate marine geoid. The anticipated accuracy and precision of such estimates raises some novel modeling error issues which have not conventionally been of concern (the Boussinesq approximation, self-attraction and loading). Model skill at very high frequencies is a major concern because of the need to de-alias the data obtained by the inevitable oceanic temporal undersampling dictated by realistic satellite orbit configurations. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

II: SOLID EARTH PHYSICS: Long Wavelength Sea Level and Solid Surface Perturbations Driven by Polar Ice Mass Variations: Fingerprinting Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet Flux

Rapid ice mass variations within the large polar ice sheets lead to distinct and highly non-uniform sea-level changes that have come to be known as ‘sea-level fingerprints’. We explore in detail the physics of these fingerprints by decomposing the total sea-level change into contributions from radial perturbations in the two bounding surfaces: the geoid (or sea surface) and the solid surface. In the case of a melting event, the sea-level fingerprint is characterized by a sea-level fall in the near-field of the ice complex and a gradually increasing sea-level rise (from 0.0 to 1.3 times the eustatic value) as one considers sites at progressively greater distances (up to ≈ 90° or so) from the ice sheet. The far-field redistribution is largely driven by the relaxation of the sea-surface as the gravitational pull of the ablating ice sheet weakens. The near-field sea-level fall is a consequence of both this relaxation and ocean-plus-ice unloading of the solid surface. We argue that the fingerprints provide a natural explanation for geographic variations in sea-level (e.g., tide gauge, satellite) observations. Therefore, they furnish a methodology for extending traditional analyses of these observations to estimate not only the globally averaged sea-level rate but also the individual contributions to this rate (i.e., the sources). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A geopause satellite system concept

The forthcoming 10 cm range tracking accuracy capability holds much promise in connection with a number of Earth and ocean dynamics investigations. These include a set of earthquake-related studies of fault motions and the Earth's tidal, polar and rotational motions, as well as studies of the gravity field and the sea surface topography which should furnish basic information about mass and heat flow in the oceans. The state of the orbit analysis art is presently at about the 10 m level, or about two orders of magnitude away from the 10 cm range accuracy capability expected in the next couple of years or so. The realization of a 10 cm orbit analysis capability awaits the solution of four kinds of problems, namely, those involving orbit determination and the lack of sufficient knowledge of tracking system biases, the gravity field, and tracking station locations. The Geopause satellite system concept offers promising approaches in connection with all of these areas. A typical Geopause satellite orbit has a 14 hour period, a mean height of about 4.6 Earth radii, and is nearly circular, polar, and normal to the ecliptic. At this height only a relatively few gravity terms have uncertainties corresponding to orbital perturbations above the decimeter level. The orbit s, in this sense, at the geopotential boundary, i.e., the geopause. The few remaining environmental quantities which may be significant can be determined by means of orbit analyses and accelerometers. The Geopause satellite system also provides the tracking geometery and coverage needed for determining the orbit, the tracking system biases and the station locations. Studies indicate that the Geopause satellite, tracked with a 2 cm ranging system from nine NASA affiliated sites, can yield decimeter station location accuracies. Five or more fundamental stations well distributed in longitude can view Geopause over the North Pole. This means not only that redundant data are available for determining tracking system biases, but also that both components of the polar motion can be observed frequently. When tracking Geopause, the NASA sites become a two-hemisphere configuration which is ideal for a number of Earth physics applications such as the observation of the polar motion with a time resolution of a fraction of a day. Geopause also provides the basic capability for satellite-to-satellite tracking of drag-free satellites for mapping the gravity field and altimeter satellites for surveying the sea surface topography. Geopause tracking a coplanar, drag-free satellite for two months to 0.03 mm per second accuracy can yield the geoid over the entire Earth to decimeter accuracy with 2.5° spatial resolution. Two Geopause satellites tracking a coplanar altimeter satellite can then yield ocean surface heights above the geoid with 7° spatial resolution every two weeks. These data will furnish basic boundary condition information about mass and heat flows in the oceans which are important in shaping weather and climate.     

Critical phenomenon,crisis and transition to spatiotemporal chaos in plasmas

In a driven/damped drift-wave system a steady wave induces nonlinear variation of the dispersion of a perturbation wave (PW). Competition between the nonlinear dispersion with self-nonlinearity of the PW results in rich wave dynamic behaviors. In particular, a steady wave at the negative tangency slope of a hysteresis becomes unstable due to a saddle instability. It is found that such saddle steady wave (SSW) plays an important role in the discontinuous transition from a spatially coherent state to spatiotemporal chaos (STC). The transition is caused by a crisis due to a collision of the PW attactor to an unstable orbit of the SSW. In the time evolution, it is a ‘pattern resonance’ of the realized wave with the virtual SSW that triggers the crisis. The transition also displays as a critical phenomenon in parameter space, which is related to the change in the symmetry property of the motion of master mode (k = 1) of the PW with respect to that of SSW. In the spatially coherent state the former is trapped by the SSW partial wave, while in the STC it can become free from the latter, its trajectory crosses two unstable orbits of the SSW frequently, causing very turbulent behavior. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Survey of Field-Aligned Mach Number and Plasma Beta in the Solar Wind

We have surveyed solar wind plasma beta and field-aligned Alfvénic Mach number using Ulysses and Wind data. We show the characteristic timescale and occurrence frequency of ‘magnetically dominated’ solar wind, whose interaction with a planetary magnetosphere may produce a bow shock with multiple shock fronts. We discuss radial, latitudinal, and solar cycle effects. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.