Space Weather Research in China

Recent progress in space weather research are briefly presented here from three aspects: establishment or improvement in observation systems, such as extra-soft X-ray detector and γ-ray detector onboard the spacecraft ‘Shen Zhou 2’, new solar radio broad-band spectrometer, magnetometer-chain, ionosonde and digisonde–chain, laser-lidar system and VHF radar; partial topic progresses included in CMEs, multi-streamer structures, evolution of interplanetary magnetic field B _z component, regional properties of traveling ionospheric disturbances, a fully-nonlinear global dynamical model for the middle and upper atmosphere, and a combined prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances; and space weather activity, such as ‘Meridian Project’ — a national major scientific project, ‘International Space Weather Meridian Circle Program’ — a suggestion of internationalization of ‘Meridian Project’, ‘Space Weather Research Plan’ — a major research plan from National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC) and other space weather activities. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Interplanetary Origin of Intense,Superintense and Extreme Geomagnetic Storms

We present a review on the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−100 nT), that occurred during solar cycle 23 (1997–2005). It was reported that the most common interplanetary structures leading to the development of intense storms were: magnetic clouds, sheath fields, sheath fields followed by a magnetic cloud and corotating interaction regions at the leading fronts of high speed streams. However, the relative importance of each of those driving structures has been shown to vary with the solar cycle phase. Superintense storms (Dst≤−250 nT) have been also studied in more detail for solar cycle 23, confirming initial studies done about their main interplanetary causes. The storms are associated with magnetic clouds and sheath fields following interplanetary shocks, although they frequently involve consecutive and complex ICME structures. Concerning extreme storms (Dst≤−400 nT), due to the poor statistics of their occurrence during the space era, only some indications about their main interplanetary causes are known. For the most extreme events, we review the Carrington event and also discuss the distribution of historical and space era extreme events in the context of the sunspot and Gleissberg solar activity cycles, highlighting a discussion about the eventual occurrence of more Carrington-type storms.     

Magnetic Field Observations of Transient Events at Ulysses, 1996–2000

During the years 1996–2000 solar activity has been gradually rising and is now close to maximum. At the same time the Ulysses spacecraft has performed a north to south traverse of the low latitude regions of the heliosphere and is now once again travelling through high southerly latitudes. We show some examples and report on the occurence rates of transient solar wind disturbances which have been identified by their magnetic field signatures. ‘Magnetic clouds’ remain more common at low (compared to high) latitudes despite the rise in solar activity. However, more events were observed at high latitudes than at solar minimum. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Observation of the interstellar helium cone by the NOZOMI spacecraft

‘The Japanese Mars probe, NOZOMI, is staying in the interplanetary space (1–1.5 AU) until its Mars’ orbit insertion scheduled in early 2004. Every 16 months on this interplanetary orbit the spacecraft crosses around 1 AU the ‘gravitational focusing cone’ of the interstellar helium, which are penetrating into the inner heliosphere under the solar gravity. During the first crossing of the cone in the season of March–May 2000, we observed these helium particles after the solar wind pickup process with an E/q type ion detector aboard NOZOMI. We have estimated the original temperature of the interstellar helium as 11 000 K. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Towards Synthesis of Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Scaling Exponents: A Fractional Lévy Motion Model

Mandelbrot introduced the concept of fractals to describe the non-Euclidean shape of many aspects of the natural world. In the time series context, he proposed the use of fractional Brownian motion (fBm) to model non-negligible temporal persistence, the ‘Joseph Effect’; and Lévy flights to quantify large discontinuities, the ‘Noah Effect’. In space physics, both effects are manifested in the intermittency and long-range correlation which are by now well-established features of geomagnetic indices and their solar wind drivers. In order to capture and quantify the Noah and Joseph effects in one compact model, we propose the application of the ‘bridging’ fractional Lévy motion (fLm) to space physics. We perform an initial evaluation of some previous scaling results in this paradigm, and show how fLm can model the previously observed exponents. We suggest some new directions for the future.     

Evolution of the Sunspot Number and Solar Wind $$ Time Series

The past two decades have witnessed significant changes in our knowledge of long-term solar and solar wind activity. The sunspot number time series (1700-present) developed by Rudolf Wolf during the second half of the 19th century was revised and extended by the group sunspot number series (1610–1995) of Hoyt and Schatten during the 1990s. The group sunspot number is significantly lower than the Wolf series before ～1885. An effort from 2011–2015 to understand and remove differences between these two series via a series of workshops had the unintended consequence of prompting several alternative constructions of the sunspot number. Thus it has been necessary to expand and extend the sunspot number reconciliation process. On the solar wind side, after a decade of controversy, an ISSI International Team used geomagnetic and sunspot data to obtain a high-confidence time series of the solar wind magnetic field strength (\(B\)) from 1750-present that can be compared with two independent long-term (> ～600 year) series of annual \(B\)-values based on cosmogenic nuclides. In this paper, we trace the twists and turns leading to our current understanding of long-term solar and solar wind activity.     

New Insights on Geomagnetic Storms from Model Simulations Using Multi-Spacecraft Data

The forecast of the terrestrial ring current as a major contributor to the stormtime Dst index and a predictor of geomagnetic storms is of central interest to ‘space weather’ programs. We thus discuss the dynamical coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere during several geomagnetic storms using our ring current-atmosphere interactions model and coordinated space-borne data sets. Our model calculates the temporal and spatial evolution of H⁺, O⁺, and He⁺ ion distribution functions considering time-dependent inflow from the magnetotail, adiabatic drifts, and outflow from the dayside magnetopause. Losses due to charge exchange, Coulomb collisions, and scattering by EMIC waves are included as well. As initial and boundary conditions we use complementary data sets from spacecraft located at key regions in the inner magnetosphere, Polar and the geosynchronous LANL satellites. We present recent model simulations of the stormtime ring current energization due to the enhanced large-scale convection electric field, which show the transition from an asymmetric to a symmetric ring current during the storm and challenge the standard theories of (a) substorm-driven, and (b) symmetric ring current. Near minimum Dst there is a factor of ∼ 10 variation in the intensity of the dominant ring current ion specie with magnetic local time, its energy density reaching maximum in the premidnight to postmidnight region. We find that the O⁺ content of the ring current increases after interplanetary shocks and reaches largest values near Dst minimum; ∼ 60% of the total ring current energy was carried by O⁺ during the main phase of the 15 July 2000 storm. The effects of magnetospheric convection and losses due to collisions and wave-particle interactions on the global ring current energy balance are calculated during different storm phases and intercompared. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A New Morphology of Solar Activity and Recurrent Geomagnetic Disturbances: The Late-Declining Phase of the Sunspot Cycle

Certain aspects of the Sun and resulting geomagnetic disturbances can be studied better on the source surface, an imaginary spherical surface of 3.5 solar radii, than on the photospheric surface. This paper presents evidence that the Sun exhibits one of the most fundamental aspects of activities most clearly during the late-declining phase of the sunspot cycle. It is the period when 27-day average values of the solar wind speed and of geomagnetic disturbances tend to be highest during the sunspot cycle. Important findings of this study on the late-declining phase of the sunspot cycle are the following:

1. By introducing a new coordinate system, modifying the Carrington coordinates, it is shown that various solar activity phenomena, solar flares, the brightest coronal regions, and also the lowest solar wind speed region, tend to concentrate in two quadrants, one around 90^° in longitude in the northern hemisphere (NE) and the other around 270^° in longitude in the southern hemisphere (SW). For this reason, the new coordinate system is referred to as the NESW coordinate system.
2. It is shown that the above results are closely related to the fact that the neutral line exhibits a single wave (sinusoidal or rectangular) in both the Carrington coordinates and the NESW coordinate system during the late-declining phase. The shift of the neutral line configuration during successive solar rotations during the late-declining phase causes longitudinal scatter of the location of solar flares with respect to the neutral line in a statistical study. The NESW coordinate system is designed to suppress the shift, so that the single wave location is fixed and thus a ‘nest’ of solar flares emerges in the NE and SW quadrants.
3. It is also shown that the single wave is the source of the double peak of the solar wind speed and two series of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances in each solar rotation, making the 27-day average solar wind and geomagnetic disturbances highest during the sunspot cycle. The double peak is a basic feature during the late-declining phase, but is obscured by several complexities which we identified in this paper; see item 8.
4. The single wave of the neutral line configuration can be approximated by three dipole fields, one which can be represented by a central dipole (parallel or anti-parallel to the rotation axis) and two hypothetical dipoles on the photosphere. This configuration is referred to as the triple dipole model.
5. The location of the two hypothetical photospheric dipoles coincide with the two active regions (solar flares, the brightest coronal region) and also the lowest solar wind speed region in the NESW coordinate system; the lowest solar wind regions are the cause of the valleys of the double peak of the solar wind speed.
6. The two hypothetical dipole fields actually do exist at the location of the two active regions in a coarse magnetic map (5 × 5^°). The two dipoles follow the Hale–Nicholson polarity law. Thus, they are real physical entities.
7. The apparent meridional rotation of the dipolar field on the source surface during the sunspot cycle results from combined changes of both the central dipole field and of the two photospheric dipoles, although the central dipole remains axially parallel or anti-parallel. Thus, the Sun has a general field that can be represented by an axially aligned dipole located at the center of the Sun throughout the sunspot cycle, except for the sunspot maximum period when the polarization reversal occurs.
8. The complexity of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances can also be understood by having the NESW coordinate system for various solar phenomena and the relative location of the earth with respect to the solar equatorial plane.
9. As the intensity of the two dipoles decreases toward the end of the sunspot cycle, the amplitude of the single wave decreases, and the neutral line tends to align with the heliographic equator.
10. The neutral line shows a double wave structure during certain epochs of the sunspot cycle. In such a situation, it can be considered that two NESW coordinate systems are present in one Carrington coordinate, resulting in four active regions.
11. The so-called classical “sector boundary” arises when the peaks (top and bottom) of the single wave reached 90^° in latitude in both hemispheres.
12. In summary: A study of the late-declining period of the sunspot cycle is very important compared with the sunspot maximum period. In the late-declining period, the Sun shows its activities in the simplest form. It is suggested that some of the basic features of solar activities and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances that have been studied by many researchers in the past can be synthesized in a simplest way by introducing the NESW coordinate system and the triple dipole model. There is a possibility that the basic results we learned during the late phase of the sunspot cycle can be applicable to the rest of the sunspot cycle.

     

Solar Variation and Stratospheric Response

We have shown in several recent publications that it is necessary to group the meteorological data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) throughout the year, in order to find a clear signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle (SSC). This work is summarized here. It is the purpose of this paper (1) to update earlier results of the solar cycle – QBO relationship for the northern winter, (2) to stress the interaction between the hemispheres and (3) to summarize the influence of the QBO on the solar variability signal, as well as the influence of the solar variability signal on the QBO throughout the year. For this, the constructed annual mean of the solar cycle – QBO relationship is introduced.     

Simultaneous Observations of Solar Energetic Particle Events by imp 8 and the Ulysses Cospin High Energy Telescope at High Solar Latitudes

With Ulysses approaching the south solar polar latitudes during a period of high solar activity, it is for the first time possible to study the distribution of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in solar latitude as well as in radius and longitude. From July 1997 to August 2000, Ulysses moved from near the solar equator at ∼5 AU to ∼67° S latitude at ∼3 AU. Using observations of >∼30 MeV protons from Ulysses and IMP-8 at Earth we find good correlation between large SEP increases observed at IMP and Ulysses, almost regardless of the relative locations of the spacecraft. The observations show that within a few days after injection of SEPs, the flux in the inner heliosphere is often almost uniform, depending only weakly on the position of the observer. No clear effect of the increasing solar latitude of Ulysses is evident. Since the typical latitudinal extent of CMEs, which most likely accelerate the SEPs, is only ∼30°, this suggests that the enhanced cross-field propagation for cosmic rays and CIR-accelerated particles deduced from Ulysses’ high latitude studies near solar minimum is also true for SEPs near solar maximum. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Sun–Earth Connection in Time Scales from Years to Decades and Centuries

The Sun–Earth connection is studied using long-term measurements from the Sun and from the Earth. The auroral activity is shown to correlate to high accuracy with the smoothed sunspot numbers. Similarly, both geomagnetic activity and global surface temperature anomaly can be linked to cyclic changes in the solar activity. The interlinked variations in the solar magnetic activity and in the solar irradiance cause effects that can be observed both in the Earth's biosphere and in the electromagnetic environment. The long-term data sets suggest that the increase in geomagnetic activity and surface temperatures are related (at least partially) to longer-term solar variations, which probably include an increasing trend superposed with a cyclic behavior with a period of about 90 years.     

26-day Analysis of Energetic Ion Observations at High and Low Heliolatitudes: Ulysses and ACE

We present observations of energetic (0.34–8 MeV) ions from the Ulysses spacecraft during its second ascent to southern high latitude regions of the heliosphere. We cover the period from January 1999 until mid-2000 as Ulysses moved from 5.2 AU and 18° S to 3.5 AU and 55° S. In contrast to the long-lived and well-defined ∼26-day recurrences that were observed throughout Ulysses‘ first southern pass, energetic ion fluxes during the first portion of the Ulysses’ second polar orbit are highly irregular. Although corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are clearly present in solar wind and magnetic field data throughout the first half of 1999, their effects on energetic ion intensities are quite different from what they were in 1992–1993. No dominant strictly recurrent ion flux increases are observed in association with the arrival of these CIRs. Correspondingly, there is no stable structure of large polar coronal holes during the same period. Isolated transient solar energetic particle (SEP) events are observed at low and high latitudes. We compare energetic ion observations from the ACE and Ulysses spacecraft during the first half of 1999 to determine the influence of these SEP events in the observed recurrent CIR structure. Such SEP events occurred only occasionally during 1992–1993, but when they occurred, they obscured the recurrences in a manner similar to that observed in 1999–2000. We therefore conclude that the basic differences in the behavior of energetic ion events between the first and second southern passes are due to the short life of the corotating structure and the higher frequency of SEP events occurring in 1999–2000. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

WIND Observations of Suprathermal Electrons in the Interplanetary Medium

We review some of the new results for suprathermal electrons obtained with the 3-D Plasma and Energetic Particle Instrument on the WIND spacecraft, which provides high sensitivity electron and ion measurements from solar wind thermal plasma up to ≳MeV energies. These results include: (1) the observation of solar impulsive electron events extending down to ∼0.5 keV energy; (2) the observation of a turnover at ∼12 keV for electrons in a gradual large solar energetic particle (LSEP) event; (3) the detection of a quiet-time population (the ‘superhalo’) of electrons extending up to ∼100 keV energy; and (4) the probing of the magnetic topology and source region for magnetic clouds, using electrons. These unique WIND measurements are highly complementary to the particle composition measurements which will be made by ACE. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Survey of Field-Aligned Mach Number and Plasma Beta in the Solar Wind

We have surveyed solar wind plasma beta and field-aligned Alfvénic Mach number using Ulysses and Wind data. We show the characteristic timescale and occurrence frequency of ‘magnetically dominated’ solar wind, whose interaction with a planetary magnetosphere may produce a bow shock with multiple shock fronts. We discuss radial, latitudinal, and solar cycle effects. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Ring Current Dynamics

This chapter reviews the current understanding of ring current dynamics. The terrestrial ring current is an electric current flowing toroidally around the Earth, centered at the equatorial plane and at altitudes of ∼10,000 to 60,000 km. Enhancements in this current are responsible for global decreases in the Earth’s surface magnetic field, which have been used to define geomagnetic storms. Intense geospace magnetic storms have severe effects on technological systems, such as disturbances or even permanent damage of telecommunication and navigation satellites, telecommunication cables, and power grids. The main carriers of the ring current are positive ions, with energies from ∼1 keV to a few hundred keV, which are trapped by the geomagnetic field and undergo an azimuthal drift. The ring current is formed by the injection of ions originating in the solar wind and the terrestrial ionosphere into the inner magnetosphere. The injection process involves electric fields, associated with enhanced magnetospheric convection and/or magnetospheric substorms. The quiescent ring current is carried mainly by protons of predominantly solar wind origin, while active processes in geospace tend to increase the abundance (both absolute and relative) of O⁺ ions, which are of ionospheric origin. During intense geospace magnetic storms, the O⁺ abundance increases dramatically. This increase has been observed to occur concurrently with the rapid intensification of the ring current in the storm main phase and to result in O⁺ dominance around storm maximum. This compositional change can affect several dynamic processes, such as species-and energy-dependent charge-exchange and wave-particle scattering loss.     

Remote Sensing of H from Ulysses and Galileo

We model interplanetary H Lyman-α (Lα) observations from Galileo UVS (Ultraviolet Spectrometer) and EUVS (Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer) (Hord et al., 1992) and the Ulysses interstellar neutral gas (GAS) instrument (Witte et al., 1992). EUVS measurements near solar maximum (max) in 1990–1992 have a peaked brightness maximum upwind due to a rather isotropic solar wind charge-exchange ionization pattern (A=0–0.25). GAS measurements from solar minimum (min) in 1997 have a plateau in the upwind direction that we model using Ulysses SWOOPS (solar wind plasma experiment) solar min data on solar wind density and velocity at different heliographic latitudes. The isotropic ionization pattern deduced from EUVS at solar max may be consistent with recent SWOOPS results (McComas et al., 2000b, c) that high speed solar wind is absent at high latitudes during solar max. Galileo and Ulysses Lα data favor higher H temperatures (15 000–18 000 K) than previous models. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Complexity,Forced and/or Self-Organized Criticality,and Topological Phase Transitions in Space Plasmas

The first definitive observation that provided convincing evidence indicating certain turbulent space plasma processes are in states of ‘complexity’ was the discovery of the apparent power-law probability distribution of solar flare intensities. Recent statistical studies of complexity in space plasmas came from the AE index, UVI auroral imagery, and in-situ measurements related to the dynamics of the plasma sheet in the Earth's magnetotail and the auroral zone. In this review, we describe a theory of dynamical ‘complexity’ for space plasma systems far from equilibrium. We demonstrate that the sporadic and localized interactions of magnetic coherent structures are the origin of ‘complexity’ in space plasmas. Such interactions generate the anomalous diffusion, transport, acceleration, and evolution of the macroscopic states of the overall dynamical systems. Several illustrative examples are considered. These include: the dynamical multi- and cross-scale interactions of the macro-and kinetic coherent structures in a sheared magnetic field geometry, the preferential acceleration of the bursty bulk flows in the plasma sheet, and the onset of ‘fluctuation induced nonlinear instabilities’ that can lead to magnetic reconfigurations. The technique of dynamical renormalization group is introduced and applied to the study of two-dimensional intermittent MHD fluctuations and an analogous modified forest-fire model exhibiting forced and/or self-organized criticality [FSOC] and other types of topological phase transitions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evidence for a Two-Stage Acceleration Process in Large Solar Energetic Particle Events

Using high-resolution mass spectrometers on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we surveyed the event-averaged ∼0.1–60 MeV/nuc heavy ion elemental composition in 64 large solar energetic particle (LSEP) events of cycle 23. Our results show the following: (1) The Fe/O ratio decreases with increasing energy up to ∼10 MeV/nuc in ∼92% of the events and up to ∼60 MeV/nuc in ∼64% of the events. (2) The rare isotope ³He is greatly enhanced over the corona or the solar wind values in 46% of the events. (3) The heavy ion abundances are not systematically organized by the ion’s M/Q ratio when compared with the solar wind values. (4) Heavy ion abundances from C–Fe exhibit systematic M/Q-dependent enhancements that are remarkably similar to those seen in ³He-rich SEP events and CME-driven interplanetary (IP) shock events. Taken together, these results confirm the role of shocks in energizing particles up to ∼60 MeV/nuc in the majority of large SEP events of cycle 23, but also show that the seed population is not dominated by ions originating from the ambient corona or the thermal solar wind, as previously believed. Rather, it appears that the source material for CME-associated large SEP events originates predominantly from a suprathermal population with a heavy ion enrichment pattern that is organized according to the ion’s mass-per-charge ratio. These new results indicate that current LSEP models must include the routine production of this dynamic suprathermal seed population as a critical pre-cursor to the CME shock acceleration process.     

The Sun as an inconstant star

It has been thought for a long time that the luminosity of the Sun has remained constant since the Sun evolved into the Main Sequence stage almost 4.5 billion yr ago. However, many of recent data obtained from the isotopic analyses in the tree rings, meteoritic and lunar samples have shown that the luminosity and the activity of the Sun must have been varied for such long years. It seems that the one of the most important discoveries on the variability of the Sun is that of the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), during which the solar activity had been extremely weak so that no sunspot had been observed for almost seventy years. Furthermore, this minimum was almost coincident with the severest period of the Little Ice Age having covered the Earth from the early 14th to the middle 19th centuries. These results suggest a possible connection between the long-term variation of the Earth's climate and that of the solar activity.The Sun shines as emitting continuously the nuclear energy as light quanta. As well known, this energy is almost constantly being released from the thermonuclear reactions taking place in the central core of the Sun. Whenever the efficiency of these reactions changes due to some mechanisms to occur inside the Sun, the light emissivity from the Sun, namely, the Sun's luminosity, would change accordingly. Thus some change in the physical processes inside the Sun may always induce various kinds of variability as related to the rearrangement of the internal structure of the Sun. As a result of this kind of change, the Earth's climatic condition also seems to be critically influenced in association with the variation of the Sun's luminosity. Since it seems that the mean level of the solar activity for a long time, say, 100 yr, is dependent on the long-term change in the physical processes inside the Sun as related to the variation of the solar luminosity, the Earth's climatic condition may be necessarily changeable as dependent on the long-term variation of the solar activity. Some evidence is here shown by reviewing the historical records on the climatic change.A brief account is finally given on the possible origin of the inconstancy in the solar luminosity and activity.     

The new radiation belt of the earth from trapped anomalous cosmic rays

In this review we briefly present the observational results on the new radiation belt of the Earth originating from the anomalous cosmic rays (ACR) and their implications. Firstly, a brief historical account of the development of our knowledge and ideas on the trapped particles in the geomagnetic field is presented. We then discuss briefly the first observations of the anomalous cosmic rays inside the magnetosphere in theSkylab experiment in 1973–1974 (Biswaset al., 1975). This showed that the measured ACR oxygen flux was at least 25 times higher than the calculated flux from the interplanetary value, indicating the presence of trapped ACR component originating from the Blake-Freisen mechanism (Biswas and Durgaprasad, 1980). In the Cosmos experiment of the USSR, the presence of trapped ACR oxygen was indicated from the observations of double peaked angular distributution (Grigorovet al., 1990). In the recent satellite experiment, MAST-SAMPEX the new results were obtained which confirmed the earlier indications and established the presence of the trapped ACR component in the geomagnetic field from the spatially separated components of the ACR (Cummingset al., 1993). The properties of the trapped ACR ions as measured in the SAMPEX are briefly discussed. The theoretical model of trapped ACR oxygen by Blake and Preisen are briefly summarised. The implications of the new observations are noted.