Optimal assimilation for ionospheric weather – Theoretical aspect

Observation, specification and prediction of ionospheric weather are the key scientific pursuits of space physicists, which largely based on an optimal assimilation system. The optimal assimilation system, or commonly called data assimilation system, consists of dynamic process, observation system and optimal estimation procedure. We attempt to give a complete framework in this paper under which the data assimilation procedure carries through. We discuss some crucial issues of data assimilation as follows: modeling a dynamic system for ionospheric weather; state estimation for static or steady system in sense of optimization and likelihood; state and its uncertainty estimation for dynamic process. Meanwhile we also discuss briefly the observability of an observation system; system parameter identification. Some data assimilation procedures existed at present are reviewed in the framework of this paper. As an example, a second order dynamic system is discussed in more detail to illustrate the specific optimal assimilation procedure, ranging from modeling the system, state and its uncertainty calculation, to the quantitatively integration of dynamic law, measurement to significantly reduce the estimation error. The analysis shows that the optimal assimilation model, with mathematical core of optimal estimation, differs from the theoretical, empirical and semi-empirical models in assimilating measured data, being constrained by physical law and being optimized respectively. The data assimilation technique, due to its optimization and integration feature, could obtain better accurate results than those obtained by dynamic process, measurement or their statistical analysis alone. The model based on optimal assimilation meets well with the criterion of the model or algorithm assessment by ‘space weather metrics’. More attention for optimal assimilation procedure creation should be paid to transition matrix finding, which is usually not easy for practical space weather system. High performance computing hardware and software studies should be promoted further so as to meet the requirement of large storage and extensive computation in the optimal estimation. The discussion in this paper is appropriate for the static or steady state or transition process of dynamic system. Many phenomena in space environment are unstable and chaos. So space environment study should include and integrate these two branches of learning. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Space Weather Research in China

Recent progress in space weather research are briefly presented here from three aspects: establishment or improvement in observation systems, such as extra-soft X-ray detector and γ-ray detector onboard the spacecraft ‘Shen Zhou 2’, new solar radio broad-band spectrometer, magnetometer-chain, ionosonde and digisonde–chain, laser-lidar system and VHF radar; partial topic progresses included in CMEs, multi-streamer structures, evolution of interplanetary magnetic field B _z component, regional properties of traveling ionospheric disturbances, a fully-nonlinear global dynamical model for the middle and upper atmosphere, and a combined prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances; and space weather activity, such as ‘Meridian Project’ — a national major scientific project, ‘International Space Weather Meridian Circle Program’ — a suggestion of internationalization of ‘Meridian Project’, ‘Space Weather Research Plan’ — a major research plan from National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC) and other space weather activities. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

磁暴期间中低纬电离层暴形态和物理机制分析

本文利用东亚地区１２个低纬电离层台站的测高仪观测数据，对１９７８年８月２７日发生的一次曲型磁暴期间电离层峰值高度和密度的变化进行了分析。采用滑动平均区分开电离层中不同时间尺度的扰动，分析了影响中低纬度电离层暴的几种扰动形态特征，并对其物理机制进行了讨论。结果表明：伴随磁暴急始的磁层压缩，电离层中表现出峰值密度增加和峰值高度下降；磁暴主相期间热层大气暴环流及其所引起的中性大气成分变化控制着电离层的大     

磁暴期间中纬度电离层剖面结构变化的数值模拟

利用电离层理论模型模拟了磁暴期间热层大气温度、成分、中性风和电场扰动对电离层电子密度剖面结构，特别是峰值密度和峰值高度变化的影响，结果表明，热层大气温度变化所引起光化反应系数的改变对电离层剖面结构影响不大；热层大气成分特别是Ｎ２／Ｏ的变化能有效地引起密度剖面变化，Ｎ２增加足以使峰值密度产生所观测到的负相暴；由中性风和电场引起等离子体漂移是峰值高度ｈｍＦ２变化的主要原因，但对电子密度的影响不足以抵消     

广义Digisonde漂移分析原理

本文给出一种广义Ｄｉｇｉｓｏｎｄｅ漂移分析，取消了ＤＤＡ的假设限制，使Ｄｉｇｉｓｏｎｄｅ漂称测量能应用于更为复杂的运动形式，如电离层研究中的剪切、辐散或辐辏等运动形式。文中阐述了ＧＤＤＡ的原理并给出一些模拟实验结果。