A unified approach to the design of decentralized detection systems

A unified approach to the design of decentralized detection networks with arbitrary topologies is proposed and analyzed. In this approach, a decentralized detection system of arbitrary topology is represented by a communication matrix that specifies the interconnection structure of the detection network. This matrix is used to derive the general decision rule using the person-by-person-optimal (PBPO) solution methodology. It is shown that the PBPO decision rule is a likelihood ratio test for statistically independent observations. The threshold of the test is shown to be a function of the decision input vector of the detector under consideration. This unified approach is used to obtain the PBPO decision rules of decentralized detection systems with various topologies. Various results in the literature are verified. In addition, the PBPO decision rules for a decentralized detection system with peer communication are presented. Numerical examples are presented for illustration     

基于情景分析的航空集群决策规则库构建方法

针对传统的规则学习算法很难解决顶层决策，以及现阶段航空集群作为一种新兴的作战样式，没有太多现成的数据和案例可供参考，暂不具备"从战争中学习战争"条件等难题，从战争设计的角度出发，探讨性地提出了一种基于情景分析的规则库构建方法。首先，从系统演化的外部触发条件和内部驱动机制出发，提出了基于事件触发-规则驱动的自主决策机制；然后，将航空集群决策规则拆分为事件、条件、动作3部分，并采用事件-条件-动作（ECA）描述机制进行规范化表达；最后，借鉴情景分析理论的思想，通过详细分析作战过程的逻辑关系、状态变迁，实现对象、事件、行为的关联，并以无人机自主察打任务规则提取为例进行了验证分析。     

大型复杂仿真系统模型验证的有效途径

根据大型复杂仿真系统的特点,提出了利用贝叶斯(Bayes)理论对大型复杂仿真系统模型进行验证的方法,建立了检验建模与仿真(M＆S)中的复杂假设的规则及实现算法,经过部分实例证明此方法是一种准确、通用和有效的方法。     

Optimal m-ary data fusion with distributed sensors

An optimal data fusion rule is derived for an m-ary detection problem. Each detector determines a local decision using a local decision rule and transmits the local decision to the fusion center. Considering the reliability of local detectors, local decisions are combined to produce the final decision. In this study, based upon the maximum posterior probability concept, optimal decision rules for m-ary detection problems are proposed for the local detector and the data fusion center     

基于优化SPOT和D-S证据理论的测试性验证方案

针对现有基于序贯验后加权检验的测试性验证方案对测试性设计指标之间的模糊参数空间考虑不足，以及未能充分运用测试性多源先验信息的问题，提出一种优化序贯验后加权检验和D-S证据理论相结合的测试性验证方案。首先，考虑测试性设计指标之间的模糊参数空间，构建三参数空间复杂假设，并基于Bayes理论研究序贯决策规则，同时确定决策因子以及决策阈值；其次，以测试性指标构成的参数空间为辨识框架，分别构造基于专家信息以及测试性试验数据等先验信息的基本信任分配函数，建立融合多源先验信息的优化序贯验证方案；最后，结合实例进行研究，并与经典验证方案、传统Bayes验证方案、序贯概率比检验方案以及序贯验后加权检验方案进行了对比分析。结果表明，该方案由于考虑了模糊参数空间以及充分融合了多源先验信息，有效解决了模糊参数空间的处理问题，同时所确定的平均故障样本量在决策支持的参数空间均优于其他方法。     

Suboptimal joint probabilistic data association

A significant problem in multiple target tracking is the hit-to-track data association. A hit is a received signal from a target or background clutter which provides positional information. If an incorrect hit is associated with a track, that track could diverge and terminate. Prior methods for this data association problem include various optimal and suboptimal two-dimensional assignment algorithms which make hit-to-track associations. Another method is to assign a weight for the reasonable hits and use a weighted centroid of those hits to update the track. The method of weighting the hits is known as joint probabilistic data association (JPDA). The authors review the JPDA approach and a simple ad hoc approximation and then introduce a new suboptimal JPDA algorithm. Examples which compare an optimal two-dimensional assignment algorithm with the ad hoc and the new suboptimal JPDA formulation are given     

OS-CFAR thresholding in decentralized radar systems

In a decentralized detection scheme, several sensors perform a binary (hard) decision and send the resulting data to a fusion center for the final decision. If each local decision has a constant false alarm rate (CFAR), the final decision is ensured to be CFAR. We consider the case that each local decision is a threshold decision, and the threshold is proportional, through a suitable multiplier, to a linear combination of order statistics (OS) from a reference set (a generalization of the concept of OS thresholding). We address the following problem: given the fusion rule and the relevant system parameters, select each threshold multiplier and the coefficients of each linear combination so as to maximize the overall probability of detection for constrained probability of false alarm. By a Lagrangian maximization approach, we obtain a general solution to this problem and closed-form solutions for the AND and OR fusion logics. A performance assessment is carried on, showing a global superiority of the OR fusion rule in terms of detection probability (for operating conditions matching the design assumptions) and of robustness (when these do not match). We also investigate the effect of the hard quantization performed at the local sensors, by comparing the said performance to those achievable by the same fusion rule in the limiting case of no quantization     

证据推理冲突问题研究

证据推理是一种重要的人工智能方法,广泛应用于数据融合、数据挖掘和智能决策。但 Dempster组合规则对于高冲突情况的处理不是十分合理的。首先研究了几种组合规则的改进方法和造成其缺陷的机理,给出一类组合规则的改进方法,基于有无先验给出两类算法。仿真结果表明新的证据推理组合规则在处理冲突方面的性能得到了明显的改进。     

Distributed detection by a large team of sensors in tandem

The problem of decentralized binary hypothesis testing by a team consisting of N decision makers (DMs) in tandem is considered. Each DM receives an observation and transmits a binary message to its successor; the last DM has to decide which hypothesis is true. The necessary and sufficient condition for the probability of error to go asymptotically to zero as N→∞ is that the log-likelihood ratio of the observation of each DM be unbounded. The result is generalized for multiple hypotheses and multiple messages. An easily implementable suboptimal decision scheme is also considered; in this case, the necessary and sufficient condition for the probability of error to asymptotically go to zero is that the log-likelihood ratio of the observation of each DM be unbounded from both above and below. The tradeoff between the complexity of the decision rules and their performance is examined, and numerical results are presented, in order to demonstrate that the performance of both decision schemes is comparable     

Conceptual design and flight simulation of space stations

This paper focuses on the conceptual design and flight simulation of space stations. Its goal is to discern the factors which influence the configurational design of a space station system. This is done in order to define an adequate methodology with an adapted set of computer tools for early conceptual design of space stations. First we review the history of space station design in order to show what factors drove conceptual space station designs in the past. After that, a methodological design approach for space stations is introduced with special emphasis on design rules applicable to the development of the configuration of a space station. Finally, the design example of a minimum space station with growth potential demonstrates the way in which methods and tools established in this study can be applied to a conceptual design problem.     

Neural network directed Bayes decision rule for moving targetclassification

In this paper, a new neural network directed Bayes decision rule is developed for target classification exploiting the dynamic behavior of the target. The system consists of a feature extractor, a neural network directed conditional probability generator and a novel sequential Bayes classifier. The velocity and curvature sequences extracted from each track are used as the primary features. Similar to hidden Markov model scheme, several hidden states are used to train the neural network, the output of which is the conditional probability of occurring the hidden states given the observations. These conditional probabilities are then used as the inputs to the sequential Bayes classifier to make the classification. The classification results are updated recursively whenever a new scan of data is received. Simulation results on multiscan images containing heavy clutter are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods     

Fault Detection in Dynamic Systems via Decision Fusion

Due to the growing demands for system reliability and availability of large amounts of data, efficient fault detection techniques for dynamic systems are desired. In this paper, we consider fault detection in dynamic systems monitored by multiple sensors. Normal and faulty behaviors can be modeled as two hypotheses. Due to communication constraints, it is assumed that sensors can only send binary data to the fusion center. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed (1ID) observations, we propose a distributed fault detection algorithm, including local detector design and decision fusion rule design, based on state estimation via particle filtering. Illustrative examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.     

基于分解策略的SSO发射轨道遗传全局优化设计

提出了基于轨道分解优化和遗传算法（GA）的SSO发射轨道优化设计策略。针对多个轨道段相互耦合问题,基于分解优化策略,将整个发射轨道设计问题分解为两个轨道段设计问题。为了高效可靠地获得全局最优解,对基本遗传算法进行了改进。首先提出了基于多变异操作等改进措施的改进遗传算法;此外,结合遗传算法的全局搜索特性和Powell算法的局部搜索特性,设计了一种串行混合遗传算法。一个二级SSO运载火箭的计算结果表明,轨道分解优化策略确保了问题的成功求解,改进遗传算法和混合遗传算法均可稳定地获得全局最优解,但是混合算法更有效地提高了GA性能。     

Multiframe detector/tracker: optimal performance

We develop the optimal Bayes multiframe detector/tracker for rigid extended targets that move randomly in clutter. The performance of this optimal algorithm provides a bound on the performance of any other suboptimal detector/tracker. We determine by Monte Carlo simulations the optimal performance under a variety of scenarios including spatially correlated Gaussian clutter and non-Gaussian (K and Weibull) clutter. We show that, for similar tracking performance, the optimal Bayes tracker can achieve peak signal-to-noise ratio gains possibly larger than 10 dB over the commonly used combination of a spatial matched filter (spatial correlator) and a linearized Kalman-Bucy tracker. Simulations using real clutter data with a simulated target suggest similar performance gains when the clutter model parameters are unknown and estimated from the measurements     

Mutual and conditional mutual informations for optimizingdistributed Bayes detectors

This paper considers optimization of distributed detectors under the Bayes criterion. A distributed detector consists of multiple local detectors and a fusion center that combines the local decision results to obtain a final decision. Introduced first are distributional distance measures, the mutual information (MI) and the conditional mutual information (CMI), that are obtained by applying information theoretic concepts to detection problems. Error bound analyses show that these distance measures approximate the Bayesian probability of error better than the conventional ones regardless of the operational environments. Then, a new optimization technique is proposed for distributed Bayes detectors. The method uses the distributional distances instead of the original Bayes criterion to avoid the complexity barrier of the optimization problem. Numerical examples show that the proposed distance measures yield solutions far better than the existing ones     

Optimum multisensor fusion of correlated local decisions

A distributed detection system consisting of a number of local detectors and a fusion center is considered. Each detector makes a decision for the underlying binary hypothesis testing problem based on its own observation and transmits its decision to the fusion center where the global decision is derived. The local decision rules are assumed to be given, but the local decisions are correlated. The correlation is generally characterized by a finite number of conditional probabilities. The optimum decision fusion rule in the Neyman-Pearson sense is derived and analyzed. The performance of the distributed detection system versus the degree of correlation between the local decisions is analyzed for a correlation structure that can be indexed by a single parameter. System performance as well as the performance advantage of using a larger number of local detectors degrade as the degree of correlation between local decisions increases     

Association of DF Bearing Measurements with Radar Tracks

The problem of associating direction finding (DF) bearingmeasurements with radar tracks is formulated as a multiplehypothesis testing problem. A simple decision rule for associating aset of DF bearing measurements with no radar track or one of mpossible radar tracks was developed using a combination of Bayesian and Neyman-Pearson approaches. The decision algorithmwas checked using both computer simulations and experimentaldata. Finally, a multiplatform algorithm was formulated and tested,using a combination of real and synthetic data.     

Moving horizon Nash strategies for a military air operation

Dynamic game theory has recently received considerable attention as a possible technology for formulating control actions for decision makers in an extended complex enterprise that involves an adversary. Examples of such enterprises are very common in military operations. Enterprises of this type are typically modeled by a highly nonlinear discrete time dynamic system whose state is controlled by two teams of decision makers each with a different objective function and possibly with a different hierarchy of decision making. Because of the complexity of such systems, the traditional solutions from dynamic game theory that involve optimizing objective functions over the entire time horizon of the system are computationally extremely difficult, if not impossible, to derive. We discuss a solution approach where at each step the controllers limit the computation of their actions to a short time horizon that may involve only the next few time steps. This moving horizon solution, although suboptimal in the global sense, is very useful in taking into account the possible near-term control actions of the adversary. To illustrate this solution methodology, we consider an example of an extended military enterprise that involves two opposing forces engaged in a battle.     

Tracking of multiple maneuvering targets using multiscan JPDA and IMM filtering

The paper considers the problem of tracking multiple maneuvering targets in the presence of clutter using switching multiple target motion models. A novel suboptimal filtering algorithm is developed by applying the basic interacting multiple model (IMM) approach and the joint probabilistic data association (JPDA) technique. Unlike the standard single-scan JPDA approach, the authors exploit a multiscan joint probabilistic data association (mscan-JPDA) approach to solve the data association problem. The algorithm is illustrated via a simulation example involving tracking of four maneuvering targets and a multiscan data window of length two     

基于混沌变量的航空发动机模糊神经网络控制

针对模糊神经网络控制器中模糊规则的设计和神经网络权值的确定存在困难这个问题,提出了混沌优化控制方案,将混沌优化算法应用到航空发动机模糊神经网络控制中,利用混沌优化算法对模糊神经网络的参数进行优化。仿真结果表明,设计的模糊神经网络控制器具有良好的性能。