安全评估中的置信度与存活率匹配研究

研究了指数分布和正态分布的安全下限估计中置信度β、名义存活率p、子样容量n及实际存活率r之间的定量关系，讨论了（β，p）的合理匹配问题，并给出了匹配曲线。计算与分析表明：对于指数分布，工程中常用的β（90％或95％）与p匹配是足够的；对于正态分布，当标准差σ已知时，90％或95％的置信度β与p的匹配在一般n≥3的工程情况中是合理的；在σ未知时，当n较小、β与p搭配不当时，将出现r小于p的不合理情况，此时名义存活率p将会过高地表示了安全性而使人盲目乐观。本文提出了新的（β，p）合理匹配建议。     

锡青铜与钢的扩散连接

研究了ＱＳｎ４－４－２．５锡青铜与４５＾＃钢的扩散连接,以及工艺参数对接头性能的影响,确定了锡青铜与钢扩散连接的最佳工艺参数：连接温度Ｔ＝８２０℃－８５０℃,连接压力Ｐ＝１．０ＭＰａ－２．０ＭＰａ,连接时间ｔ＝２０ｍｉｎ,接头抗拉强度可达１８０Ｍａ以上,并运用金相,扫描电镜对接头进行了微观分析。     

SiMnMoV钢板材强度δb与其表面硬度HRC的关系

本文研究了容器用ＳｉＭｎＭｏＶ钢表面脱碳板材（淬火＋３００℃回火），强度δｂ与其表面硬度ＨＲＣ的关系。研究结果表明：该钢表面脱碳曲线为直线，其斜率ρ＝７０。在表面脱碳与无脱碳板材的强度之间，发现了一个强度佃界值δｏ；δｏ值随板厚α减小而下降；α一定时，δｏ为定值，不受含碳量影响。δｂ与ＨＲＣ的关系符合δｊ＝δｏ［１－（ａ＋ｂ）（４８－ＨＲＣ）／３５ａｂ］。δｏ值和δｊ式，为容器壁厚与强度匹配优化设     

TiAl合金PST晶体中Ti3Al片层取向对其蠕变性能的影响

 对２种硬取向（＝９０°和０°,为外力轴与片层界面的夹角）的ＴｉＡｌ合金ＰＳＴ晶体试样的高温压缩性能及蠕变性能进行了测试,并对其蠕变组织进行了观察。结果表明：２种取向试样的屈服强度及蠕变性能存在明显的差异;在Ｔ＝８００℃,σ＝３５０ＭＰａ蠕变条件下,＝９０°试样过早出现蠕变失稳阶段,这与该取向试样片层组织中α２相在蠕变过程中发生球化及剪切带的形成有关。     

固体火箭发动机实际燃速常数的计算

根据试车数据，对全尺寸发机和标准发机瞬时燃速进行了计算，利用参数辨识技术，确定了维也里燃公式（ｒ＝ａｐ＾ｎ）里的常数，计算结果表明：对应用在不同发动机中的同一种推进剂来说，其燃速系数α和压强指数ｎ是不同的。探讨了不同发动机燃速常数变化的原因以及规律性，提供了分析全尺寸发动机，标准发动机之间燃速相关性的新方法。     

再入(返回)测量的自校准α-β-γ滤波

在导弹、航天器试验任务的实时数据处理中,α-β-γ滤波已得到应用。由于外测系统的观测数据中,除含有随机误差外,还含有系统误差,而且系统误差经常大于随机误差。随着对实时处理测量精度要求的日益提高,应用α-β-γ滤波解算弹道参数,必须考虑外测系统误差的修正,否则,在较长测量弧段利用其滤波时,系统误差会造成弹道参数的滤波“发散”。本文基于“EMBET”自校准原理,将其推广到α-β-γ滤波中,完成了具有自校准α-β-γ滤波公式的推导,并给出再入(返回)测量弧段时的常用测量元素下的相应公式。     

P—S—N曲线的测定及数据处理

根据３０ＣｒＭｎＳｉＮｉ２Ａ高强度钢的疲劳试验结果，系统地介绍了该材料Ｐ－Ｓ－Ｎ曲线的测定、绘制、数据处理方法，并阐述了Ｋｔ＝５时的材料疲劳特征。还附有数据处理用表。     

Ru对铸造Ti—47Al合金显微组织的影响

研究了铸造Ｔｉ－４７Ａｌ－ＸＲｕ（ａｔ％）（Ｘ＝０．５,１,３）合金的显微组织。结果表明,Ｒｕ与Ｃｒ相似,是很强的β稳定元素,促进β２相形成。β２相是含Ｒｕ量高达１０ａｔ％的富Ｒｕ相。含１ａｔ％Ｒｕ的合金在１１６０～１２００℃温度范围热处理时不断析出粒状次生β２相,破坏了γ＋α２片状组织,同时形成了新的γ晶粒。经１２００℃,４８ｈ处理后可得到平均晶粒尺寸小于６０μｍ的γ晶,因此,Ｔｉ－４７Ａｌ－１Ｒｕ合金是可热处理细化晶粒的铸造合金。当Ｒｕ量增加至３ａｔ％时,合金难于热处理细化晶粒,而且合金明显脆化。     

燃烧室壁冲击冷却换热的实验研究

对９种不同几何尺寸的冲击孔板及其换热靶板,在冷流压力损失控制在１０％以下时,测量其换热的平均努氏数,并依据结果分析冲击换热的影响和影响程度,最后采用多元线性回归法,将结果数据整理成换热的准则关系式。实验结果表明：（１）冲击换热的平均努氏数Ｎｕｄ随冲击孔的雷诺数Ｒｅｄ的增加呈上升趋势,（２）冲击换热的平均努氏数Ｎｕｄ在冲击间距Ｚｎ＝０．８ｍｍ～４．８ｍｍ内,随Ｘｎ／ｄ的增加呈下降趋势,（３）冲击间距Ｚｎ＝０．８ｍｍ～４．８ｍｍ内,冲击换热随冲击间距与冲击孔孔径之比Ｚｎ／ｄ增加而微弱上升,（４）在实验范围内冲击换热的平均努氏数可用下式表示：Ｎｕｄ＝０．２８１（Ｚｎ／ｄ）０．０７１（Ｘｎ／ｄ）－１．２９Ｒｅ０．７６ｄ,式中１５００≤Ｒｅｄ≤１００００,６．２５≤Ｘｎ／ｄ≤８．３３,０．５３≤Ｚｎ／ｄ≤３．００。     

逃逸飞行器喷流影响试验研究

本文介绍了在跨超声速风洞中进行的逃逸飞行器模型气动特性、载荷分布及流场结构试验研究,提供了Ｍ＝０．６～４．０,α＝－２°～２０°范围内的试验结果。试验结果和流动图象表明：由逃逸飞行器头部喷射出的喷流严重影响逃逸飞行器的气动特性和载荷分布。     

二维单侧容限系数方法

给出了一种二维单侧容限系数公式,并提出确定高自由度的子样均值和标准差方法。从而能充分利用以往的数据和经验,大大减少了试件个数。与国际上常用的(一维)单侧容限系数法相比,可节省大量试件;而在试件个数相同的情况下,则可得到更接近于母体百分位值的置信限(如安全寿命、安全强度或安全载荷等)。文中还给出了可靠度置信下限公式。     

Efficient adaptive Kriging for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes under random and interval hybrid uncertainty

In the field of the system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes, the advances mainly involve only random uncertainty. The upper bound of the system failure probability with multiple failure modes is usually employed to quantify the safety level under Random and Interval Hybrid Uncertainty(RI-HU). At present, there is a lack of an efficient and accurate method for estimating the upper bound of the system failure probability. This paper proposed an efficient Kriging model based on nume...     

高温合金松弛过程回归分析方法

基于线性过程回归分析理论,建立了高温合金应力松弛过程回归分析方法,给出了松弛过程的回归方程和高置信水平、高可靠度的单侧置信下限曲线.高温合金松弛过程回归分析方法可以将应力松弛过程作为一个整体进行回归分析,充分利用了不同时刻剩余应力试验数据间的纵向信息,具有信息量大、精度高的特点.而且当试样数量较少时,传统方法得到的剩余应力置信下限曲线可能会发生畸变,而该方法则可以避免这一现象的发生.工程应用表明,在试样数相同的情况下,该方法比传统方法具有更高的精度,而在精度相同的情况下,则可减少大量试样.      

Neural Networks Combined with Importance Sampling Techniques for Reliability Evaluation of Explosive Initiating Device

Concerning the issue of high-dimensions and low-failure probabilities including implicit and highly nonlinear limit state function, reliability analysis based on the directional importance sampling in combination with the radial basis function (RBF) neural network is used, and the RBF neural network based on first-order reliability method (FORM) is to approximate the unknown implicit limit state functions and calculate the most probable point (MPP) with iterative algorithm. For good efficiency, based on the ideas that directional sampling reduces dimensionality and importance sampling focuses on the domain contributing to failure probability, the joint probability density function of importance sampling is constructed, and the sampling center is moved to MPP to ensure that more random sample points draw belong to the failure domain and the simulation efficiency is improved. Then the numerical example of initiating explosive devices for rocket booster explosive bolts demonstrates the applicability, versatility and accuracy of the approach compared with other reliability simulation algorithm.     

Gray bootstrap method for estimating frequency-varying random vibration signals with small samples

During environment testing, the estimation of random vibration signals （RVS） is an important technique for the airborne platform safety and reliability. However, the available meth- ods including extreme value envelope method （EVEM）, statistical tolerances method （STM） and improved statistical tolerance method （ISTM） require large samples and typical probability distri- bution. Moreover, the frequency-varying characteristic of RVS is usually not taken into account. Gray bootstrap method （GBM） is proposed to solve the problem of estimating frequency-varying RVS with small samples. Firstly, the estimated indexes are obtained including the estimated inter- val, the estimated uncertainty, the estimated value, the estimated error and estimated reliability. In addition, GBM is applied to estimating the single flight testing of certain aircraft. At last, in order to evaluate the estimated performance, GBM is compared with bootstrap method （BM） and gray method （GM） in testing analysis. The result shows that GBM has superiority for estimating dynamic signals with small samples and estimated reliability is proved to be 100% at the given confidence level.     

主副梁式机翼结构破坏危险性分析

 本文在综合考虑裂纹检出概率、检查间隔、初始裂纹尺寸分布,裂纹扩展、剩余强度分布等因素的条件下,提出了基于概率断裂力学原理的主副梁式机翼结构的破坏危险性分析方法。并以某型飞机机翼为例,进行了数值计算。结果表明:副梁疲劳寿命对主梁的破坏危险性有显著影响。     

Reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis of structure by combining adaptive linked importance sampling and Kriging reliability method

The application of reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis methods to complicated structures faces two main challenges: small failure probability (typical less than 10⁻⁵) and time-demanding mechanical models. This paper proposes an improved active learning surrogate model method, which combines the advantages of the classical Active Kriging – Monte Carlo Simulation (AK-MCS) procedure and the Adaptive Linked Importance Sampling (ALIS) procedure. The proposed procedure can, on the one hand, adaptively produce a series of intermediate sampling density approaching the quasi-optimal Importance Sampling (IS) density, on the other hand, adaptively generate a set of intermediate surrogate models approaching the true failure surface of the rare failure event. Then, the small failure probability and the corresponding reliability sensitivity indices are efficiently estimated by their IS estimators based on the quasi-optimal IS density and the surrogate models. Compared with the classical AK-MCS and Active Kriging – Importance Sampling (AK-IS) procedure, the proposed method neither need to build very large sample pool even when the failure probability is extremely small, nor need to estimate the Most Probable Points (MPPs), thus it is computationally more efficient and more applicable especially for problems with multiple MPPs. The effectiveness and engineering applicability of the proposed method are demonstrated by one numerical test example and two engineering applications.     

液态碳氢燃料热辐射物性参数反演方法

基于光线跟踪法建立了玻璃-液态碳氢燃料-玻璃3层平板总透射比的正问题模型,给出了反演液态碳氢燃料热辐射物性参数(光谱吸收指数 k 和光谱折射指数 n)的反问题模型,采用Monte-Carlo(M-C)法结合区间逼近法求解.通过将已知文献中庚烷的热辐射物性参数作为“真实值”,采用正问题模型计算总透射比作为“实验测量值”,然后利用反问题模型计算 n 和 k ,并分析实验偏差对反演计算的影响.研究结果表明:①模型反演 k 计算误差的标准差小于0.003%,而 n 的标准差高于21%.②实验偏差对反演计算影响较大,且偏差达到1.0%时个别反演数据明显“失真”.③ k 反演计算误 差的标准差 y 与实验偏差 γ 满足 y =2285.2 γ2- 10.484 γ +0.0037的关系式; n 反演计算误差的标准差受实验偏差影响较小,但偏差导致反演 n 误差均超过20%.      

Asymptotic Performance of Sparse Signal Detection Using Convex Programming Method

The detection of sparse signals against background noise is considered. Detecting signals of such kind is difficult since only a small portion of the signal carries information. Prior knowledge is usually assumed to ease detection. In this paper, we consider the general unknown and arbitrary sparse signal detection problem when no prior knowledge is available. Under a Neyman-Pearson hypothesis-testing framework, a new detection scheme is proposed by combining a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT)-like test statistic and convex programming methods which directly exploit sparsity in an underdetermined system of linear equations. We characterize large sample behavior of the proposed method by analyzing its asymptotic performance. Specifically, we give the condition for the Chernoff-consistent detection which shows that the proposed method is very sensitive to the 2 norm energy of the sparse signals. Both the false alarm rate and the miss rate tend to zero at vanishing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), as long as the signal energy grows at least logarithmically with the problem dimension. Next we give a large deviation analysis to characterize the error exponent for the Neyman-Pearson detection. We derive the oracle error exponent assuming signal knowledge. Then we explicitly derive the error exponent of the proposed scheme and compare it with the oracle exponent. We complement our study with numerical experiments, showing that the proposed method performs in the vicinity of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) method in the finite sample scenario and the error probability degrades exponentially with the number of observations.     

定位于材料基因组计划的镍基高温合金互扩散系数矩阵的高通量测定

寻找新一代镍基单晶高温合金中Re的替代元素以实现少Re甚至无Re化是当前高温合金领域的研究热点。从扩散系数角度出发寻找具有与Re相当或者更低扩散系数的元素是有效的研究策略之一。在多元合金中,互扩散系数矩阵可全面表征任一合金元素的扩散能力。因此,精确测定不同合金元素在镍基高温合金γ和γ'相中随成分和温度变化的互扩散系数矩阵是当务之急。首先,概述当前镍基高温合金互扩散系数矩阵测定的现状,以及用于多元合金互扩散系数测定的传统Matano-Kirkaldy方法和新型数值回归方法。由于传统Matano-Kirkaldy方法效率低,文献中鲜有镍基高温合金三元及更高组元体系互扩散系数矩阵的报道。本研究小组最近基于Fick第二定律和原子移动性概念发展起来的新型数值回归方法,可用于任意组元合金精准互扩散系数矩阵的高通量测定。随后以Ni-Al-Ta三元合金γ相为例详细阐述新型数值回归法用于合金互扩散系数矩阵高通量测定以及测定结果的可靠性验证过程。之后,简述本研究小组关于镍基高温合金γ和γ'相互扩散系数矩阵测定的最新进展。目前已经完成了核心三元合金体系Ni-Al-X(X=Rh,Ta,W,Re,Os和Ir)γ及γ'相互扩散系数矩阵的高通量测定,并对结果可靠性进行了细致的验证。通过对比不同元素在镍基高温合金中的互扩散系数,初步提出新一代镍基高温合金中Re的可能替代元素及合金成分设计的关键。最后,指出镍基高温合金互扩散系数矩阵测定的下一步工作和互扩散系数矩阵高通量测定的发展方向。