RLV economics: fiscal evaluation of NASA''s reusable launch vehicle effort

The US RLV program aims to stimulate commercial development of a next-generation heavy-lift launcher and lower launch costs by one order of magnitude from the Space Shuttle. This paper discusses the incentives needed to encourage private investment — income tax relief, investment mitigation, financing assistance — in the venture and uses a specifically developed case study model to evaluate their effectiveness. It finds that an R&D tax credit would be the most practical incentive. Directions for future work are provided.     

天地往返可重复使用运载器再入飞行GNC系统关键技术

天地往返可重复使用运载器(RLV)在未来天战中将扮演重要角色。目前各军事大国围绕RLV的关键技术开展了广泛深入的研究。再入飞行是RLV飞行任务的重要阶段,而制导、导航与控制(GNC)系统则是RLV的核心系统之一,是RLV再入飞行的“脑系统”。本文分析了RLV在再入飞行阶段GNC系统的任务要求,明确其体系结构,分析GNC系统存在的问题,给出了深入研究GNC系统需要解决的关键技术和进一步研究的方向。     

The meaning of Japan's space commercialization efforts

The gradual commercial utilization and application of the results of government-led space development programmes is a natural development. In Japan private sector involvement goes further than this because the government budget for space development is very limited. To remain competitive in an increasingly international market Japan now needs to develop a partnership between government and private enterprise to construct a system and structure that will directly benefit the public, otherwise the necessary support for space development will not be attained.     

Launch vehicles and the commercial uses of outer space : The underlying economic issues

This article discusses the economics of the demand for and supply of launch vehicles. Demand is derived from both commercial and governmental uses of space, while the supply of launch vehicles is determined by governmental needs which are rarely based on economic criteria alone. Multipurpose launches such as the Space Shuttle should be viewed as a national resource instead of a profit-seeking venture. Because of the mixing of government and private uses for space vehicles, traditional economic analysis provides only a starting point for policy decisions.     

Commercial spaceports — a window of opportunity?

The feasibility of building commercial spaceports is being actively investigated in several countries. Potential benefits include boosting economic development and assisting the commercial launch industry. This report finds, however, that commercial spaceport development will probably not be capable of generating a large enough return on investment to attract private sector involvement without significant government assistance. It is also unlikely that the market for large launch vehicles will support spaceport development; however, small satellites may offer better prospects.     

Developing new launch vehicle technology: The case for multi-national private sector cooperation

Space is now a global business, yet the cost of getting to space is still high. Developing new launch vehicles that are cheaper, safer, and more reliable is the key to both rapid commercial growth and to more and better government uses of space. However, the R&D process leading to new launch vehicles is expensive and technically challenging; the past 50 years have seen many government development programs, but no major technological breakthroughs. Perhaps, it is therefore time to think about other ways of developing new launch vehicles. The best expertise in this field resides primarily with private companies and is spread across many actors and nations. A consortium led by space firms might be a better approach to opening up space in the 21st century. Governments will have to develop new policies treating space as though it were a commercial industry, in particular, relaxing export trade restrictions wherever possible. Issues of dual-use may be outweighed by the rapidly growing widespread availability of launch capabilities. Since new launch vehicles will require large up-front R&D expenditures, government support will continue to be needed to supplement private capital funds. Contributions to this effort should be international. However, difficult it might be in today's security conscious environment to reorient government policy, doing so may offer the most efficient and successful way to break the technological and economic barriers to more reliable access to space.     

Canadian space policy

Canada's geography made it an early leader in the development of space technology, and generated a civilian-oriented, terrestrially focused space programme with a strong focus on communications and an increasing emphasis on transferring space technology and activity from the government to the private sector. During the 1980s Canada's space programme has strengthened and broadened measurably; its now contains major projects in Earth observation and robotics as well as communications, and has diversified its international partnerships from the USA to Europe. However, persisting weaknesses in launch capability, space science and military space programmes, and the dependence of all three current major projects (Msat, Radarsat, and the International Space Station's Mobile Servicing System) on the USA represent potential vulnerabilities which require national investments and expanded international affiliations if they are to be offset.     

Organizing and managing satellite solar power

Building an organization and management structure to create, launch, utilize and protect a satellite solar power energy system will require a global policy for the beneficial use of SSP. The fundamental organizational tasks are: (1) R&D, achieved through a project organization characterized by the integrated management of applied science, development research and construction engineering; (2) investment, generated by a series of groups creating financial vehicles for public and private investment; (3) transmission and distribution, characterized by attention to an engineering and maintenance process emphasizing high reliability; and (4) crisis response, demanding readiness for instant response to potential internal or external scenarios. A differentiated global organization spanning the long timeframe of SSP will need to have a central management core representative of all parts of the organization, with the capacity for self-renewal and re-adaptation. To be successful over its long timeframe, the SSP organization will need to build continuity and public confidence through intergenerational communication, public education, and community outreach. Integrating structures must be created at all levels of the organization, and should encompass joint work tasks and information-sharing among both industrial and government members. Developmental and alliance partners who support the formation and financing of a differentiated satellite solar power organization will share commensurately in the technologies and competencies that are created.     

Space commercialization: Lessons from history

Private enterprise seeks to undertake virtually any activity that is institutionally and technologically feasible and that promises a high return on investment. Commercial activities in space would seem to be no exception. Indeed, it is reasonable to expect that, at some future date, commercial activities in space will overshadow government-sponsored research and military activities combined. But this date remains well into the future, it is highly uncertain, and it depends on government policies. Two major factors inhibiting further space commercialization are the current lack of necessary infrastructure and the lack of viable commercial activities. The necessary infrastructure is developing with the increasing operational status of the Space Shuttle and plans for a space station. It remains, however, to place increasing emphasis on the conduct of research in space to identify valid commercial uses of space.     

Between heaven and earth: The legal challenges of human space travel

Since the first space object was launched into orbit in 1957, humankind has been engaged in a constant effort to realise ever more ambitious plans for space travel. Probably the single most important element in this ongoing evolution is the development of technology capable of transporting large numbers of passengers into outer space on a commercial basis. Within the foreseeable future, space will no longer be the sole domain of professionally trained astronauts or the exceptionally wealthy.The prospects for both suborbital and orbital private human access to space give rise to some interesting and difficult legal questions. It also opens up an exciting opportunity to develop an adequate system of legal regulation to deal with these activities. The existing international legal regimes covering air and space activities are not well suited to large-scale commercial access to space, largely because they were developed at a time when such activities were not a principal consideration in the mind of the drafters. The lack of legal clarity represents a major challenge and must be addressed as soon as possible, to provide for appropriate standards and further encourage (not discourage) such activities.This article will examine some of the more pressing legal issues associated with the regulation of space transportation of passengers on a commercial basis, seen in the light of Article 1 of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which states that the ‘exploration and use of outer space […] shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries […] and shall be the province of all mankind’. An appropriate balance must be found between the commercial and technological opportunities that will arise and the principles upon which the development of international space law have thus far been based.     

Microsatellites And Improved Acquisition Of Space Systems

Traditional practices of the United States Department of Defense (DoD) in the acquisition of space systems have focused on advanced versions of proven technology, meaning large satellites. This paradigm contributes to dependence on a handful of satellites, program schedules measured in decades, and the expensive oversight and program management functions which must be applied to systems which, since there are so few assets, cannot countenance failures. The escape from this paradigm is offered by Microsatellites (Microsats). Microsats are not only useful technology, but technology which enables a different approach to acquisition. What the authors call the Microsat Acquisition Paradigm (MAP) is partly modeled on NASA's Faster, Better, Cheaper approach and takes lessons from NASA's successes and failures. Now that some space functions can be undertaken by low-cost Microsats, the advantages of mass production, reduced government oversight, and acceptance of a reasonable failure rate can be applied to space system acquisition. This paper explores the three pillars of the MAP approach: requirements, technology, and acquisition, which together support the Holy Grail of space system affordability. Understanding the military's space requirements is the first pillar of this approach. The second pillar is the ability to correlate the requirements to the current and projected state of Microsat technology and explain what space functions can be accomplished with Microsats. Finally, historical examples, as well as recent studies. demonstrate that streamlined, cost-effective acquisition is a reality for Microsats, enabling savings in time and money compared to the acquisition system used for traditional space systems.     

The USA and international competition in space transportation

This article discusses the crisis facing the USA in the formulation of its space transportation policy, within the context of its overall national space policy. The author examines developments in international space transportation from 1982 to 1992, and the failure of US policies to meet foreign commercial competition in space launches. Two goals have emerged from the US policy debate: to achieve assured access to space, and to reduce the costs of sending payloads to orbit. Both goals need to be faced within the context of a wider commitment by government and private industry to space investment.     

NASA spinoffs to bioengineering and medicine

Through the active transfer of technology, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Technology Utilization (TU) Program assists private companies, associations, and government agencies to make effective use of NASA's technological resources to improve U.S. economic competitiveness and to provide societal benefit. Aerospace technology from areas such as digital image processing, space medicine and biology, microelectronics, optics and electrooptics, and ultrasonic imaging have found many secondary applications in medicine. Examples of technology spinoffs are briefly discussed to illustrate the benefits realized through adaptation of aerospace technology to solve health care problems. Successful implementation of new technologies increasingly requires the collaboration of industry, universities, and government, and the TU Program serves as the liaison to establish such collaborations with NASA. NASA technology is an important resource to support the development of new medical products and techniques that will further advance the quality of health care available in the U.S. and worldwide.     

Implications of previous space commercialization experiences for the reusable launch vehicle

In evaluating the prospects for the development of a commercially viable RLV, it may be useful to examine ’lessons learned‘ from previous space commercialization efforts– both those that succeeded and those that did not. It can be argued that several distinct streams of market and technological development may have to converge for successful commercialization of space systems to occur. Factors influencing the prospects for commercialization include the size and growth rate of the potential customer base, the extent to which a governmental customer exists to underpin the market, the development of associated ’value-added‘ markets, the stability of governmental policies, the availability of enabling or enhancing infrastructure, the levels of technological and business risk, and the degree to which competitive markets exist. This paper examines two previous space commercialization experiences, evaluates the relative importance of the various factors that influence the prospects for success of commercialization efforts, and assesses the implications of those factors for the commercial viability of the proposed RLV.     

Commercialization of space — the investment opportunities

This report by Ray Williamson of the US Office of Technology Assessment, looks at the prospects for commercialization of space into the 21st century and discusses the relative benefits of private v government investment. The report is taken from a revised version of an article originally appearing in the October 1982 issue of Futures. A fully updated paper will appear in Michiel Schwarz and Paul Stares (eds), ‘The Exploitation of Space: Policy Trends in the Military and Commercial Uses of Space’ (Butterworths, Guildford, UK, 1985).     

The private solution to the space transportation crisis

Confused and short-sighted decisions dominated by political expediency have been made about US space policy in the past 30 years. Overly large and ambitious systems have been chosen, resulting in today's crisis in space transportation. The history of commercial aircraft development offers an alternative example of producing in a range of sizes and capabilities for a wide variety of users, and shows that the space transport industry could benefit from applying the decision-making processes used in private enterprise. The authors examine strategies for privatization of space transportation and conclude that policy support for the commercial launch industry must be continued. NASA must be reoriented towards its basic research function, and more government services should be bought from the private sector.     

Informed maintenance for next generation reusable launch systems

Perhaps the most substantial single obstacle to progress of space exploration and utilization of space for human benefit is the safety & reliability and the inherent cost of launching to, and returning from, space. The primary influence in the high costs of current launch systems (the same is true for commercial and military aircraft and most other reusable systems) is the operations, maintenance and infrastructure portion of the program's total life cycle costs. Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) maintenance and design have traditionally been two separate engineering disciplines with often conflicting objectives - maximizing ease of maintenance versus optimizing performance, size and cost. Testability analysis, an element of Informed Maintenance (IM), has been an ad hoc, manual effort, in which maintenance engineers attempt to identify an efficient method of troubleshooting for the given product, with little or no control over product design. Therefore, testability deficiencies in the design cannot be rectified. It is now widely recognized that IM must be engineered into the product at the design stage itself, so that an optimal compromise is achieved between system maintainability and performance.The elements of IM include testability analysis, diagnostics/prognostics, automated maintenance scheduling, automated logistics coordination, paperless documentation and data mining. IM derives its heritage from complimentary NASA science, space and aeronautic enterprises such as the on-board autonomous Remote Agent Architecture recently flown on NASA's Deep Space 1 Probe as well as commercial industries that employ quick turnaround operations. Commercial technologies and processes supporting NASA's IM initiatives include condition based maintenance technologies from Boeing's Commercial 777 Aircraft and Lockheed-Martin's F-22 Fighter, automotive computer diagnostics and autonomous controllers that enable 100,000 mile maintenance free operations, and locomotive monitoring system software.This paper will summarize NASA's long-term strategy, development, and implementation plans for Informed Maintenance for next generation RLVs. This will be done through a convergence into a single IM vision the work being performed throughout NASA, industry and academia. Additionally, a current status of IM development throughout NASA programs such as the Space Shuttle, X-33, X-34 and X-37 will be provided and will conclude with an overview of near-term work that is being initiated in FY00 to support NASA's 2^nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program.     

我国可重复使用液体火箭发动机发展的思考

重复使用是降低航天发射成本的重要途径之一,是液体火箭发动机未来发展的重要方向。本文分析了可重复使用液体发动机的发展趋势,针对可重复使用运载器对发动机功能的需求,探讨了动力系统方案;对比了液氧煤油和液氧甲烷等推进剂组合和不同循环方式,认为几种发动机方案均可满足重复使用运载器的需求;研究了重复使用发动机的关键技术,提出应重点研究可重复使用液体火箭发动机高温组件热结构疲劳寿命评估及延寿技术、运动组件摩擦磨损技术、结构动载荷控制与评估技术、快速检测评估与维修维护技术、健康监控与故障诊断技术、二次或多次起动技术与大范围推力调节技术等。     

Space and modernity: 50 years on

As we celebrate the 50th anniversary of the start of spaceflight and of the initiation of European integration, both these symbols of modernity seem to have stalled. We have learnt that some forms of modernity bore a heavy price, such as environmental issues. The social value of ‘progress’ has changed; this affects the types of programme that publics support. Although prestige may still be important to new spacefaring nations, it is the utility of space technology in solving terrestrial problems that is most important, while economic changes, which have made government funding tighter, have opened the door to private initiatives. As we enter the 21st century, we can still be proud of our achievements in space, but we must understand that the reasons we pursue such activity has changed.     

Projecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems management

Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy.Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories.In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system.This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.