Creating a productive international partnership in the Vision for Space Exploration

When US President George W. Bush on 14 January 2004 announced a new US “Vision for Space Exploration”, he called for international participation in “a journey, not a race”, a call received with skepticism and concern elsewhere. But, after a slow start in implementing this directive, during 2006 NASA has increased the forward momentum of action on the program and of discussions on international cooperation in exploring “the Moon, Mars, and beyond”. There are nevertheless a number of significant top-level issues that must be addressed if a cooperative approach to human space exploration is to be pursued. These include the relationship between utilization of the ISS and the lunar exploration plans, integration of potential partners’ current and future capabilities into the exploration plans, and the evolving space-related intentions of other countries.     

Mars Direct: Humans to the red planet by 1999

“Mars Direct”, is an approach to the space Exploration Initiative that allows for the rapid initiation of manned Mars exploration, possibly as early as 1999. The approach does not require any on-orbit assembly or refueling or any support from the Space Station or other orbital infrastructure. Furthermore, the Mars Direct plan is not merely a “flags and footprints” one-shot expedition, but puts into place immediately an economical method of Earth-Mars transportation, real surface exploratory mobility, and significant base capabilities that can evolve into a mostly self-sufficient Mars settlement. This paper presents both the initial and evolutionary phases of the Mars Direct plan. In the initial phase, only chemical propulsion is used, sendig 4 persons on conjunction class Mars exploratory missions. Two heavy lift booster launches are required to support each mission. The first launch delivers an unfueled Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) to the martian surface, where it fills itself with methane/oxygen bipropellant manufactured primarily out of indigenous resources. After propellant production is completed, a second launch delivers the crew to the prepared site, where they conduct regional exploration for 1.5 years and then return directly to Earth in the ERV. In the second phase of Mars Direct, nuclear thermal propulsion is used to cut crew transit times in half, increase cargo delivery capacity, and to create the potential for true global mobility through the use of CO₂ propelled ballistic hopping vehicles (“NIMFs”). In this paper we present both phases of the Mars Direct plan, including mission architecture, vehicle designs, and exploratory strategy leading to the establishment of a 48 person permanent Mars base. Some speculative thoughts on the possibility of actually colonizing Mars are also presented.     

“Space superiority”: Wernher von Braun's campaign for a nuclear-armed space station, 1946–1956

The literature on the history of spaceflight has depicted the early 1950s Collier’s articles mostly as a forerunner to the peaceful and scientific exploration of space. Yet the centerpiece of Wernher von Braun's plan was a manned space station that would serve as reconnaissance platform and orbiting battle station for achieving “space superiority” over the USSR. One its roles could be the launching of nuclear missiles. When challenged as to the station's defensibility, von Braun even posited pre-emptive atomic strikes from space as a response to the development of a hostile anti-satellite capability.     

Dual-frequency ultrasound for detecting and sizing bubbles

ISS construction and Mars exploration require extensive extravehicular activity (EVA), exposing crewmembers to increased decompression sickness risk. Improved bubble detection technologies could help increase EVA efficiency and safety. Creare Inc. has developed a bubble detection and sizing instrument using dual-frequency ultrasound. The device emits “pump” and “image” signals at two frequencies. The low-frequency pump signal causes an appropriately-sized bubble to resonate. When the image frequency hits a resonating bubble, mixing signals are returned at the sum and difference of the two frequencies. To test the feasibility of transcutaneous intravascular detection, intravascular bubbles in anesthetized swine were produced using agitated saline and decompression stress. Ultrasonic transducers on the chest provided the two frequencies. Mixing signals were detected transthoracically in the right atrium using both methods. A histogram of estimated bubble sizes could be constructed. Bubbles can be detected and sized transthoracically in the right atrium using dual-frequency ultrasound.     

Lessons learned from Mir--a payload perspective

Among the principal objectives of the Phase 1 NASA/Mir program were for the United States to gain experience working with an international partner, to gain working experience in long-duration space flight, and to gain working experience in planning for and executing research on a long-duration space platform. The Phase 1 program was to provide the US early experience prior to the construction and operation of the International Space Station (Phase 2 and 3). While it can be argued that Mir and ISS are different platforms and that programmatically Phase 1 and ISS are organized differently, it is also clear that many aspects of operating a long-duration research program are platform independent. This can be demonstrated by a review of lessons learned from Skylab, a US space station program of the mid-1970s, many of which were again “learned” on Mir and are being “learned” on ISS. Among these are optimum crew training strategies, on-orbit crew operations, ground support, medical operations and crew psychological support, and safety certification processes.     

A new paradigm for international cooperation in space exploration

In announcing a new Vision for the US space program, President George Bush committed the USA to “a long-term human and robotic program to explore the solar system”, via a return to the Moon, leading to exploration of Mars and other destinations. He also stated that other nations would be invited to join the vision. Many other nations have, or are developing, ‘exploration visions’ of their own. The potential for international cooperation therefore exists, both at the vision and program/project levels. This paper, based on Working Group discussions as part of an AIAA space cooperation workshop,¹ presents an approach for maximizing the return on all global investments in space exploration. It proposes an international coordination mechanism through which all these various national activities could be integrated into an inherently global enterprise for space exploration, a ‘virtual program of programs’. Within the context of the coordination, individual activities would utilize the full range of cooperative mechanisms for implementation. A significant benefit of this mode of conducting cooperation is that it would not require the negotiation of complex overarching international agreements as a precondition for initiating international activity.     

Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

Spatial factors and muscle spindle input influence the generation of neuromuscular responses to stimulation of the human foot

Removal of the mechanical pressure gradient on the soles leads to physiological adaptations that ultimately result in neuromotor degradation during spaceflight. We propose that mechanical stimulation of the soles serves to partially restore the afference associated with bipedal loading and assists in attenuating the negative neuromotor consequences of spaceflight. A dynamic foot stimulus device was used to stimulate the soles in a variety of conditions with different stimulation locations, stimulation patterns and muscle spindle input. Surface electromyography revealed the lateral side of the sole elicited the greatest neuromuscular response in ankle musculature, followed by the medial side, then the heel. These responses were modified by preceding stimulation. Neuromuscular responses were also influenced by the level of muscle spindle input. These results provide important information that can be used to guide the development of a “passive” countermeasure that relies on sole stimulation and can supplement existing exercise protocols during spaceflight.     

Stepping stones toward global space exploration

Several nations are currently engaging in or planning for robotic and human space exploration programs that target the Moon, Mars and near-Earth asteroids. These ambitious plans to build new space infrastructures, transport systems and space probes will require international cooperation if they are to be sustainable and affordable. Partnerships must involve not only established space powers, but also emerging space nations and developing countries; the participation of these new space actors will provide a bottom-up support structure that will aid program continuity, generate more active members in the space community, and increase public awareness of space activities in both developed and developing countries. The integration of many stakeholders into a global space exploration program represents a crucial element securing political and programmatic stability. How can the evolving space community learn to cooperate on a truly international level while engaging emerging space nations and developing countries in a meaningful way? We propose a stepping stone approach toward a global space exploration program, featuring three major elements: (1) an international Earth-based field research program preparing for planetary exploration, (2) enhanced exploitation of the International Space Station (ISS) enabling exploration and (3) a worldwide CubeSat program supporting exploration. An international Earth-based field research program can serve as a truly global exploration testbed that allows both established and new space actors to gain valuable experience by working together to prepare for future planetary exploration missions. Securing greater exploitation of the ISS is a logical step during its prolonged lifetime; ISS experiments, partnerships and legal frameworks are valuable foundations for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. Cooperation involving small, low-cost missions could be a major stride toward exciting and meaningful participation from emerging space nations and developing countries. For each of these three proposed stepping stones, recommendations for coordination mechanisms are presented.     

Space transportation system: Upper stage possibilities

This study is concerned with STS upper stages; in particular, the question of reusability vs expendability is addressed.The main result is: reusability seems to be of economic advantage in the lower performance requirement field, and expendability seems to be the more attractive in the case of high performance requirement. The boundary between “low” and “high” performance requirement can be well defined, and is of course dependent upon the technology applied.Whereas single-stage conventional chemical rocket upper stages compatible with STS are the main focal point of this study, several less conventional possibilities are identified. So a second major result is, that in spite of many years of study by competent authors the field is not yet fully understood.Finally: Study method and some of the results are applicable to the more general question of optimum OTV design.     

New results for the space radiation environment of MIR space station obtained by Liulin dosimeter-radiometer. Comparison with LET spectrometer NAUSICAA

Since 1988 high sensitivity semiconductor dosimeter-radiometer “Liulin” worked on board of MIR space station. Device measured the absorbed dose rate and the flux of penetrating particles. The analysis of the data hows the following new results:

In October 1989 and after March 24, 1991, two additional stable maximums in flux channel were observed in the southern-eastern part of South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). These two maximums existed at least several months and seem to be due to trapped high energy electron and proton fluxes. In April 1991 additional maximums were localized in the following geographical coordinates regions: LATITUDE = (−35 °)–(−50 °) LONGITUDE = 332 ° − 16 ° and lat.(−46 °)–(−52 °) long. 360 ° − 60 °. Additional maximums diffusion occurs inside radiation belt. Appearance of these maximums seems to be closely connected with preceding powerful solar proton events and associated geomagnetic dynamics of new belt disturbances. After the series of solar proton events in June 1991 we observed significant enhancement of this new radiation belt formation. To achieve sufficient accuracy of dose rate predictions in low Earth orbits the structure and dynamics of new belt should be carefully analyzed to be included in a new environment model.

From the inter comparison of the data from “Liulin” and French developed tissue equivalent LET spectrometer NAUSICAA in the time period August–November 1992 we come to the following conclusions: Mainly there is good agreement between both data sets for absorbed dose in the region of SAA; Different situation of the instruments on the station can explain the cases when differences up to 2 times are observed; At high latitudes usually the tissue equivalent absorbed dose observations are 2 times larger than “Liulin” doses.     

Economic rhythms,Maslow Windows and the new space frontier

This paper explores the possible relationship between space exploration and long swings in the economy and socio-technical systems. We posit that the early phases of long upswings are characterized by periods of optimism and the spirit of adventure that provided a motivation for large-scale explorations and other great infrastructure projects in the past. These Maslow Windows help us understand prior eras of exploration and cultural dynamism, and offer a hopeful scenario for space exploration in the next two decades. We offer some observations as to what the exploratory thrust might look like, including a return to the lunar surface combined with other activities. Of course, we also point out that the next great wave of space exploration will almost certainly have a much more international flavor than has heretofore been the case.     

Planetary Defense From Space: Part 2 (Simple) Asteroid Deflection Law

A system of two space bases housing missiles for an efficient Planetary Defense of the Earth from asteroids and comets was firstly proposed by this author in 2002. It was then shown that the five Lagrangian points of the Earth–Moon system lead naturally to only two unmistakable locations of these two space bases within the sphere of influence of the Earth. These locations are the two Lagrangian points L1 (in between the Earth and the Moon) and L3 (in the direction opposite to the Moon from the Earth). In fact, placing missiles based at L1 and L3 would enable the missiles to deflect the trajectory of incoming asteroids by hitting them orthogonally to their impact trajectory toward the Earth, thus maximizing the deflection at best. It was also shown that confocal conics are the only class of missile trajectories fulfilling this “best orthogonal deflection” requirement.The mathematical theory developed by the author in the years 2002–2004 was just the beginning of a more expanded research program about the Planetary Defense. In fact, while those papers developed the formal Keplerian theory of the Optimal Planetary Defense achievable from the Earth–Moon Lagrangian points L1 and L3, this paper is devoted to the proof of a simple “(small) asteroid deflection law” relating directly the following variables to each other:

(1) the speed of the arriving asteroid with respect to the Earth (known from the astrometric observations);

(2) the asteroid's size and density (also supposed to be known from astronomical observations of various types);

(3) the “security radius” of the Earth, that is, the minimal sphere around the Earth outside which we must force the asteroid to fly if we want to be safe on Earth. Typically, we assume the security radius to equal about 10,000 km from the Earth center, but this number might be changed by more refined analyses, especially in the case of “rubble pile” asteroids;

(4) the distance from the Earth of the two Lagrangian points L1 and L3 where the defense missiles are to be housed;

(5) the deflecting missile's data, namely its mass and especially its “extra-boost”, that is, the extra-energy by which the missile must hit the asteroid to achieve the requested minimal deflection outside the security radius around the Earth.

This discovery of the simple “asteroid deflection law” presented in this paper was possible because:

(1) In the vicinity of the Earth, the hyperbola of the arriving asteroid is nearly the same as its own asymptote, namely, the asteroid's hyperbola is very much like a straight line. We call this approximation the line/circle approximation. Although “rough” compared to the ordinary Keplerian theory, this approximation simplifies the mathematical problem to such an extent that two simple, final equations can be derived.

(2) The confocal missile trajectory, orthogonal to this straight line, ceases then to be an ellipse to become just a circle centered at the Earth. This fact also simplifies things greatly. Our results are thus to be regarded as a good engineering approximation, valid for a preliminary astronautical design of the missiles and bases at L1 and L3.

Still, many more sophisticated refinements would be needed for a complete Planetary Defense System:

(1) taking into account many perturbation forces of all kinds acting on both the asteroids and missiles shot from L1 and L3;

(2) adding more (non-optimal) trajectories of missiles shot from either the Lagrangian points L4 and L5 of the Earth–Moon system or from the surface of the Moon itself;

(3) encompassing the full range of missiles currently available to the USA (and possibly other countries) so as to really see “which missiles could divert which asteroids”, even just within the very simplified scheme proposed in this paper.

In summary: outlined for the first time in February 2002, our Confocal Planetary Defense concept is a simplified Keplerian Theory that already proved simple enough to catch the attention of scholars, popular writers, and representatives of the US Military. These developments would hopefully mark the beginning of a general mathematical vision for building an efficient Planetary Defense System in space and in the vicinity of the Earth, although not on the surface of the Earth itself!We must make a real progress beyond academic papers, Hollywood movies and secret military plans, before asteroids like 99942 Apophis get close enough to destroy us in 2029 or a little later.     

Population inversion and gain distribution in supersonic mixed flow systems

Experimental results are reported for small signal gain distribution across a cavity of a mixed flow gasdynamic laser system at different turbulent supersonic mixing regimes. It is shown that the temperature range of the GDL generation regime can be extended up to 7000°K, and gain coefficients as high as 3.5 m⁻¹ be attained in a “double-freeze” supersonic gas flow. Basic advantages are discussed as well as the opportunity to obtain higher efficiencies in thermally pumped laser systems.     

SETI via Wormholes

The special theory of relativity rests on the assumption that in no case can the speed of light be exceeded. Rather surprisingly, however, recent advances in the general theory of relativity show that Faster-Than-Light (FTL) travel is allowed by Einstein’s gravitational theory. An explanation of this apparent contrast between special and general relativity lies in the fact that general relativity uses non-linear differential equations and non-Euclidean spacetime geometry that special relativity does not. Therefore, this larger mathematical armoury makes room for a whole new class of very subtle and unexpected relativistic phenomena to come to light. One of these is the Theory of Wormholes, more politely termed Tunnels into Space–Time. In 1988, Kip S. Thorne and Michael S. Morris published a path-breaking paper about Wormholes showing how spaceflight between two stars might be possible in a time of hours if a “tunnel” dug into space–time exists between them. However, they also showed that keeping the tunnel open for the spaceship to travel through would require a kind of matter, called “exotic” by them, that does not appear to exist in nature, because its tensional strength would have to exceed the energy density of its matter. This request is a severe constraint to the natural existence of Morris–Thorne Wormholes, or even to their artificial construction by an advanced civilization. In 1995, however, the present author sought to replace the exotic matter in a Morris–Thorne Wormhole by a very intense magnetic field. Such “Magnetic Wormholes” could indeed exist because very intense magnetic fields are already known to exist on the surface of neutron stars and pulsars. This paper discusses the consequences on SETI of the possible existence of Magnetic Wormholes. Phenomena of divergent gravitational lensing might possibly occur in the proximity of pulsars and neutron stars. These effects could help us detect signals from very far civilisations by virtue of ordinary SETI techniques already in use.     

Inflatable composite habitat structures for lunar and mars exploration

Recent advances in materials technology have improved the performance capabilities of inflatable, flexible composite structures, which have increased their potential for use in numerous space applications. Space suits, which are comprised of flexible composite components, are a good example of the successful use of inflatable composite structures in space. Space suits employ inflatables technology to provide a stand alone spacecraft for astronauts during extra-vehicular activity. A natural extension of this application of inflatables technology is in orbital or planetary habitat structures. NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is currently investigating flexible composite structures deployed via inflation for use as habitats, transfer vehicles and depots for continued exploration of the Moon and Mars.

Inflatable composite structures are being investigated because they offer significant benefits over conventional structures for aerospace applications. Inflatable structures are flexible and can be packaged in smaller and more complex shaped volumes, which result in the selection of smaller launch vehicles which dramatically reduce launch costs. Inflatable composite structures are typically manufactured from materials that have higher strength to weight ratios than conventional systems and are therefore lower in mass. Mass reductions are further realized because of the tailorability of inflatable composite structures, which allow the strength of the system to be concentrated where needed. Flexible composite structures also tend to be more damage tolerant due to their “forgiveness” as compared to rigid mechanical systems. In addition, inflatables have consistently proven to be lower in both development and manufacturing costs.

Several inflatable habitat development programs are discussed with their increasing maturation toward use on a flight mission. Selected development programs being discussed include several NASA Langley Research Center habitat programs that were conducted in the 1960s, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory inflatable space station study, the NASA JSC deployable inflatable Lunar habitat study, and the inflatable Mars TransHab study and test program currently ongoing at NASA JSC. Relevant technology developments made by ILC Dover are also presented.     

Innovations for competitiveness: European views on “better-faster-cheaper”

The paper elaborates on “ lessons learned” from two recent ESA workshops, one focussing on the role of Innovation in the competitiveness of the space sector and the second on technology and engineering aspects conducive to better, faster and cheaper space programmes. The paper focuses primarily on four major aspects, namely:

1. a) the adaptations of industrial and public organisations to the global market needs;

2. b) the understanding of the bottleneck factors limiting competitiveness;

3. c) the trends toward new system architectures and new engineering and production methods;

4. d) the understanding of the role of new technology in the future applications.

Under the pressure of market forces and the influence of many global and regional players, applications of space systems and technology are becoming more and more competitive. It is well recognised that without major effort for innovation in industrial practices, organisations, R&D, marketing and financial approaches the European space sector will stagnate and loose its competence as well as its competitiveness. It is also recognised that a programme run according to the “better, faster, cheaper” philosophy relies on much closer integration of system design, development and verification, and draws heavily on a robust and comprehensive programme of technology development, which must run in parallel and off-line with respect to flight programmes.

A company's innovation capabilities will determine its future competitive advantage (in time, cost, performance or value) and overall growth potential. Innovation must be a process that can be counted on to provide repetitive, sustainable, long-term performance improvements. As such, it needs not depend on great breakthroughs in technology and concepts (which are accidental and rare). Rather, it could be based on bold evolution through the establishment of know-how, application of best practices, process effectiveness and high standards, performance measurement, and attention to customers and professional marketing. Having a technological lead allows industry to gain a competitive advantage in performance, cost and opportunities. Instrumental to better competitiveness is an R&D effort based on the adaptation of high technology products, capable of capturing new users, increasing production, decreasing the cost and delivery time and integrating high level of intelligence, information and autonomy. New systems will have to take in to account from the start what types of technologies are being developed or are already available in other areas outside space, and design their system accordingly. The future challenge for “faster, better, cheaper” appears to concern primarily “cost-effective”, performant autonomous spacecraft, “cost-effective”, reliable launching means and intelligent data fusion technologies and robust software serving mass- market real time services, distributed via EHF bands and Internet.

In conclusion, it can be noticed that in the past few years new approaches have considerably enlarged the ways in which space missions can be implemented. They are supported by true innovations in mission concepts, system architecture, development and technologies, in particular for the development of initiatives based on multi-mission mini-satellites platforms for communication and Earth observation missions. There are also definite limits to cost cutting (such as lowering heads counts and increasing efficiency), and therefore the strategic perspective must be shifted from the present emphasis on cost-driven enhancement to revenue-driven improvements for growth. And since the product life-cycle is continuously shortening, competitiveness is linked very strongly with the capability to generate new technology products which enhance cost/benefit performance.     

The origin of the smaller, faster, cheaper approach in NASA’s solar system exploration program

The current emphasis on smaller, faster, cheaper (SFC) spacecraft in NASA’s solar system exploration program is the product of a number of interacting – even interdependent – factors. The SFC concept as applied to NASA’s solar system exploration program can be viewed as the vector sum of (1) the space science community’s desire for more frequent planetary missions to plug the data gaps, educate the next generation of scientists, provide missions to targets of opportunity, and enable programmatic flexibility in times of budgetary crisis; (2) the poor publicity garnered by NASA in the early 1990s and the resultant atmosphere of public criticism (creating an opportunity for reform); (3) The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization’s and the National Space Council community’s desire to advance the Space Exploration Initiative and their perception that the NASA culture at the time represented a barrier to the effective pursuit of space exploration; (4) the effective leadership of NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin; and (5) the diminishing budget profile for space sciences in the early 1990s. This paper provides a summary of the origin of the smaller, faster, cheaper approach in the planetary program. A more through understanding of the history behind this policy will enable analysts to assess more accurately the relative successes and failures of NASA’s new approach to solar system exploration.     

The Allen telescope array: Commensal and efficient SETI

The Allen telescope array (ATA) currently under construction affords the possibility of a dedicated and highly efficient SETI program that may be done commensally with other radio astronomy programs. This symbiosis is important in order to maintain and sustain the long-term effort that may be required in order to achieve success as a positive or null result. The technology that is being exploited is the construction of many small elements that allow large fields-of-view at high sensitivity, the use of ultra-wideband front-ends, and the use of flexible digital “intermediate frequency (IF)” systems. The project is under construction in phases, with the first 32 antennas expected to be functional in the fall of 2004, the next 173 dishes operational early 2006, with plans for 350 antennas total within this decade.