The Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar Cycle Forcing in the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere

This paper studies the response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle. The study is based on numerical simulations with the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), a chemistry climate model that resolves the atmosphere from the Earth’s surface up to about 250 km. Results presented here are obtained in two multi-year time-slice runs for solar maximum and minimum conditions, respectively. The magnitude of the simulated annual and zonal mean stratospheric response in temperature and ozone corresponds well to observations. The dynamical model response is studied for northern hemisphere winter. Here, the zonal mean wind change differs substantially from observations. The statistical significance of the model’s dynamical response is, however, poor for most regions of the atmosphere. Finally, we discuss several issues that render the evaluation of model results with available analyses of observational data of the stratosphere and mesosphere difficult. This includes the possibility that the atmospheric response to solar variability may depend strongly on longitude.     

Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.     

The Effect of Solar UV Irradiance Variations on the Earth's Atmosphere

The response of the lower and middle atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance typical of those observed to take place over the 11-year activity cycle has been investigated. The effects on radiative heating rates of changing total solar irradiance, solar spectral irradiance and two different assumptions concerning stratospheric ozone have been studied with a radiative transfer code. The response in the stratosphere depends on the changes specified in the ozone distribution which is not well known. A general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere up to 0.1 mbar (about 65 km) has been used to study the impacts of these changes on the thermodynamical structure. The results in the troposphere are very similar to those reported by Haigh99 using a quite different GCM. In the middle atmosphere the model is able to reproduce quite well the observed seasonal evolution of temperature and wind anomalies. Calculations of radiative forcing due to solar variation are presented. These show that the thermal infrared component of the forcing, due to warming of the stratosphere, is important but suggest a near balance between the longwave and shortwave effects of the increased ozone so that ozone change may not be important for net radiative forcing. However, the structure of the ozone change does affect the detailed temperature response and the spectral composition of the radiation entering the troposphere.     

Amplification of the influence of solar flux variations on the winter stratosphere by planetary waves

Recent observational evidence has suggested that variations in solar activity may affect winter stratospheric polar ozone and temperature levels. The paucity of direct sunlight available during this season points strongly to a dynamical mechanism. We have carried out several large ensemble experiments within the middle atmosphere and the coupled middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere to simulate the radiative/dynamical coupling via planetary waves for a range of solar fluxes. In the former case, the model response in the winter stratosphere was linear and of the order of the summer stratopause forcing, whilst in the latter, the level of correlation in the winter stratosphere remained high, but was diluted over a wider volume. The inclusion of the upper atmosphere enhanced the winter polar stratospheric response by a factor of three.     

Influence of the Solar Cycle on the General Circulation of the Stratosphere and Upper Troposphere

The record of dynamical structure reveals a systematic variation that operates coherently with the 11-yr variation of UV irradiance. Involving periods shorter than 5 years, the systematic variation reflects the influence of the QBO on the polar-night vortex. It has the same basic structure as interannual changes associated with the residual mean circulation of the stratosphere. A signature of the solar cycle also appears in the direct correlation to solar flux, as recovered through regression of the entire monthly record. That signature, however, is sharply enhanced around solstice, when the residual circulation is active, and during extremal phases of the QBO. In the tropics, the solar signature follows, throughout the year, from a decadal modulation in the frequency of the QBO. The modulation is manifested to either side of the QBO’s mean frequency, in two spectral peaks where the QBO dwells: one at (24 months)⁻¹, reflecting a Biennial Oscillation (BO), and another at (36 months)^-1. Intrinsic to the QBO, those peaks are separated from its mean frequency by ∼11 years⁻¹.Through the QBO’s residual circulation, the decadal modulation introduces anomalies in the subtropics, with symmetry about the equator. Accompanying anomalous temperature in the subtropics is a stronger signature over the winter pole. Discovered by Labitzke and van Loon 1988, that solar signature reflects anomalous downwelling of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. It is shown to follow through the BO, which is intrinsic to the QBO and its modulation of the polar-night vortex.     

Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25–45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth’s surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possible.     

Impact of Solar Activity on Stratospheric Ozone and NO2 Observed by Gomos/Envisat

Energetic proton precipitation occurring during solar events can increase the production of odd nitrogen in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. A very intense solar proton event (SPE) occurred on 28 October 2003. Its impact on the composition of the middle atmosphere was observed in details due to the availability of several space instruments. Here we present GOMOS observations of a strong NO₂increase and a related ozone decrease in the upper stratosphere at north polar latitude. The perturbation of the chemical composition of the stratosphere was observed until the middle of December 2003. A strong NO₂ increase was also observed in the south polar vortex in June-July 2003. It is tentatively attributed to the effect of an SPE with protons of moderate energy occurring on 29 May 2003. If this hypothesis is confirmed, it will imply that the global effect of SPEs on the composition of the stratosphere is underestimated when only strong energy SPEs are considered.     

Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate

In recent years the variability of the cosmic ray flux has become one of the main issues interpreting cosmogenic elements and especially their connection with climate. In this review, an interdisciplinary team of scientists brings together our knowledge of the evolution and modulation of the cosmic ray flux from its origin in the Milky Way, during its propagation through the heliosphere, up to its interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere, resulting, finally, in the production of cosmogenic isotopes in the Earth’ atmosphere. The interpretation of the cosmogenic isotopes and the cosmic ray – cloud connection are also intensively discussed. Finally, we discuss some open questions.     

Giant Planet Ionospheres and Thermospheres: The Importance of Ion-Neutral Coupling

Planetary upper atmospheres-coexisting thermospheres and ionospheres-form an important boundary between the planet itself and interplanetary space. The solar wind and radiation from the Sun may react with the upper atmosphere directly, as in the case of Venus. If the planet has a magnetic field, however, such interactions are mediated by the magnetosphere, as in the case of the Earth. All of the Solar System’s giant planets have magnetic fields of various strengths, and interactions with their space environments are thus mediated by their respective magnetospheres. This article concentrates on the consequences of magnetosphere-atmosphere interactions for the physical conditions of the thermosphere and ionosphere. In particular, we wish to highlight important new considerations concerning the energy balance in the upper atmosphere of Jupiter and Saturn, and the role that coupling between the ionosphere and thermosphere may play in establishing and regulating energy flows and temperatures there. This article also compares the auroral activity of Earth, Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. The Earth’s behaviour is controlled, externally, by the solar wind. But Jupiter’s is determined by the co-rotation or otherwise of the equatorial plasmasheet, which is internal to the planet’s magnetosphere. Despite being rapid rotators, like Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus appear to have auroral emissions that are mainly under solar (wind) control. For Jupiter and Saturn, it is shown that Joule heating and “frictional” effects, due to ion-neutral coupling can produce large amounts of energy that may account for their high exospheric temperatures.     

Measurement of Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance

The Sun’s electromagnetic radiation powers our solar system. In the case of the Earth it heats the lands and ocean, maintains our atmosphere, generates clouds, and cycles water. For other planets and minor bodies, similar and appropriate physical processes occur, also powered by the Sun. The Sun varies on all time scales and a precise knowledge of the Sun's irradiance and its variation is essential to our understanding of environments and physical conditions throughout our solar system. Measurements of solar irradiance and its variation can only be made from space, and almost thirty years of observation have now established that the total solar irradiance (TSI) varies by only 0.1 to 0.3%, while certain portions of the solar spectrum, the ultraviolet for example, vary by orders of magnitude more. This paper provides an overview of TSI observations and of spectral irradiance observations from the ultraviolet to the near infrared.     

Solar Energetic Particle Composition, Energy Spectra, and Space Weather

Recent progress in measuring the composition and energy spectra of solar energetic particles (SEPs) accelerated by CME-driven shocks is reviewed, including a comparison of the observed charge-to-mass dependence of breaks in SEP spectra with model predictions. Also discussed is a comparison of SEP and CME kinetic energies in seventeen large SEP events, and estimates of the SEP radiation dose that astronauts would be subject to once they venture outside the protective cover of Earth’s magnetosphere.     

Observed Long-Term Variations of Solar Irradiance at the Earth’s Surface

The variation of global radiation (sum of direct solar and diffuse sky radiation) at the Earth’s surface is examined based on pyranometer measurements at about 400~sites. The period of the study covers in general the last 50 years. For Europe the study is extended to the beginning of observations in the 1920s and 1930s. Global radiation generally increased in Europe from the 1920s to the 1950s. After the late 1950s and early 1960s global radiation began to decrease in most areas of the world at a mean rate of 0.7 Wm⁻²a⁻¹ until 1980s, thereafter 75%; of the stations showed a recovery at a mean rate of 0.7 Wm⁻²a⁻¹. All stations in the Polar region, which are far from aerosol sources, also show this pattern of change. At the remaining 25% of the stations the decrease has continued to present. These regions are a part of China, most of India, and Central Africa. Both during the declining and recovering phases global radiation observed under the cloudless condition also followed the same tendency, indicating the simultaneous and parallel changes of aerosol and cloud conditions. Long-term observations of total zenith transmittance of the atmosphere indicate a decrease in transmittance to the mid 1980s and an increase after this period. Since the brighter and darker periods correspond to relatively warmer and colder periods, the present study offers the possibility to quantitatively evaluate the mutual relationships between the solar irradiance, atmospheric transmittance, cloud conditions and air temperature.     

A Comparative Study of the Influence of the Active Young Sun on the Early Atmospheres of Earth, Venus, and Mars

Because the solar radiation and particle environment plays a major role in all atmospheric processes such as ionization, dissociation, heating of the upper atmospheres, and thermal and non-thermal atmospheric loss processes, the long-time evolution of planetary atmospheres and their water inventories can only be understood within the context of the evolving Sun. We compare the effect of solar induced X-ray and EUV (XUV) heating on the upper atmospheres of Earth, Venus and Mars since the time when the Sun arrived at the Zero-Age-Main-Sequence (ZAMS) about 4.6 Gyr ago. We apply a diffusive-gravitational equilibrium and thermal balance model for studying heating of the early thermospheres by photodissociation and ionization processes, due to exothermic chemical reactions and cooling by IR-radiating molecules like CO₂, NO, OH, etc. Our model simulations result in extended thermospheres for early Earth, Venus and Mars. The exospheric temperatures obtained for all the three planets during this time period lead to diffusion-limited hydrodynamic escape of atomic hydrogen and high Jeans’ escape rates for heavier species like H₂, He, C, N, O, etc. The duration of this blow-off phase for atomic hydrogen depends essentially on the mixing ratios of CO₂, N₂ and H₂O in the atmospheres and could last from ∼100 to several hundred million years. Furthermore, we study the efficiency of various non-thermal atmospheric loss processes on Venus and Mars and investigate the possible protecting effect of the early martian magnetosphere against solar wind induced ion pick up erosion. We find that the early martian magnetic field could decrease the ion-related non-thermal escape rates by a great amount. It is possible that non-magnetized early Mars could have lost its whole atmosphere due to the combined effect of its extended upper atmosphere and a dense solar wind plasma flow of the young Sun during about 200 Myr after the Sun arrived at the ZAMS. Depending on the solar wind parameters, our model simulations for early Venus show that ion pick up by strong solar wind from a non-magnetized planet could erode up to an equivalent amount of ∼250 bar of O⁺ ions during the first several hundred million years. This accumulated loss corresponds to an equivalent mass of ∼1 terrestrial ocean (TO (1 TO ∼1.39×10²⁴ g or expressed as partial pressure, about 265 bar, which corresponds to ∼2900 m average depth)). Finally, we discuss and compare our findings with the results of preceding studies.     

Solar Influence on Earth's Climate

An increasing number of studies indicate that variations in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency is influenced by changing cloud properties via cosmic ray ionisation (the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (<3.2 km). GCR are responsible for nearly all ionisation in the atmosphere below 35 km. One mechanism could involve ion-induced formation of aerosol particles (diameter range, 0.001–1.0 μm) that can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A systematic variation in the properties of CCN will affect the cloud droplet distribution and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment, could influence Earth's radiation budget. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Rosetta Mission: Flying Towards the Origin of the Solar System

The ROSETTA Mission, the Planetary Cornerstone Mission in the European Space Agency’s long-term programme Horizon 2000, will rendezvous in 2014 with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko close to its aphelion and will study the physical and chemical properties of the nucleus, the evolution of the coma during the comet’s approach to the Sun, and the development of the interaction region of the solar wind and the comet, for more than one year until it reaches perihelion. In addition to the investigations performed by the scientific instruments on board the orbiter, the ROSETTA lander PHILAE will be deployed onto the surface of the nucleus. On its way to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, ROSETTA will fly by and study the two asteroids 2867 Steins and 21 Lutetia.     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

MESSENGER: Exploring Mercury’s Magnetosphere

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission to Mercury offers our first opportunity to explore this planet’s miniature magnetosphere since the brief flybys of Mariner 10. Mercury’s magnetosphere is unique in many respects. The magnetosphere of Mercury is among the smallest in the solar system; its magnetic field typically stands off the solar wind only ∼1000 to 2000 km above the surface. For this reason there are no closed drift paths for energetic particles and, hence, no radiation belts. Magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause may erode the subsolar magnetosphere, allowing solar wind ions to impact directly the regolith. Inductive currents in Mercury’s interior may act to modify the solar wind interaction by resisting changes due to solar wind pressure variations. Indeed, observations of these induction effects may be an important source of information on the state of Mercury’s interior. In addition, Mercury’s magnetosphere is the only one with its defining magnetic flux tubes rooted beneath the solid surface as opposed to an atmosphere with a conductive ionospheric layer. This lack of an ionosphere is probably the underlying reason for the brevity of the very intense, but short-lived, ∼1–2 min, substorm-like energetic particle events observed by Mariner 10 during its first traversal of Mercury’s magnetic tail. Because of Mercury’s proximity to the sun, 0.3–0.5 AU, this magnetosphere experiences the most extreme driving forces in the solar system. All of these factors are expected to produce complicated interactions involving the exchange and recycling of neutrals and ions among the solar wind, magnetosphere, and regolith. The electrodynamics of Mercury’s magnetosphere are expected to be equally complex, with strong forcing by the solar wind, magnetic reconnection, and pick-up of planetary ions all playing roles in the generation of field-aligned electric currents. However, these field-aligned currents do not close in an ionosphere, but in some other manner. In addition to the insights into magnetospheric physics offered by study of the solar wind–Mercury system, quantitative specification of the “external” magnetic field generated by magnetospheric currents is necessary for accurate determination of the strength and multi-polar decomposition of Mercury’s intrinsic magnetic field. MESSENGER’s highly capable instrumentation and broad orbital coverage will greatly advance our understanding of both the origin of Mercury’s magnetic field and the acceleration of charged particles in small magnetospheres. In this article, we review what is known about Mercury’s magnetosphere and describe the MESSENGER science team’s strategy for obtaining answers to the outstanding science questions surrounding the interaction of the solar wind with Mercury and its small, but dynamic, magnetosphere.     

Satellite Measurements of Middle Atmospheric Impacts by Solar Proton Events in Solar Cycle 23

Solar cycle 23 was extremely active with seven of the largest twelve solar proton events (SPEs) in the past forty years recorded. These events caused significant polar middle atmospheric changes that were observed by a number of satellites. The highly energetic protons produced ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents in the polar cap regions (>60 degrees geomagnetic latitude), which led to the production of HO_x (H, OH, HO₂) and NO_y (N, NO, NO₂, NO₃, N₂O₅, HNO₃, HO₂NO₂, BrONO₂, ClONO₂). The HO_x increases led to short-lived ozone decreases in the polar mesosphere and upper stratosphere due to the short lifetimes of the HO_x constituents. Polar middle mesospheric ozone decreases greater than 50 % were observed and computed to last for hours to days due to the enhanced HO_x. The NO_y increases led to long-lived polar stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NO_y family in this region. Upper stratospheric ozone decreases of >10 % were computed to last for several months past the solar events in the winter polar regions because of the enhanced NO_y.     

Emergence of a Habitable Planet

We address the first several hundred million years of Earth’s history. The Moon-forming impact left Earth enveloped in a hot silicate atmosphere that cooled and condensed over ∼1,000 yrs. As it cooled the Earth degassed its volatiles into the atmosphere. It took another ∼2 Myrs for the magma ocean to freeze at the surface. The cooling rate was determined by atmospheric thermal blanketing. Tidal heating by the new Moon was a major energy source to the magma ocean. After the mantle solidified geothermal heat became climatologically insignificant, which allowed the steam atmosphere to condense, and left behind a ∼100 bar, ∼500 K CO₂ atmosphere. Thereafter cooling was governed by how quickly CO₂ was removed from the atmosphere. If subduction were efficient this could have taken as little as 10 million years. In this case the faint young Sun suggests that a lifeless Earth should have been cold and its oceans white with ice. But if carbonate subduction were inefficient the CO₂ would have mostly stayed in the atmosphere, which would have kept the surface near ∼500 K for many tens of millions of years. Hydrous minerals are harder to subduct than carbonates and there is a good chance that the Hadean mantle was dry. Hadean heat flow was locally high enough to ensure that any ice cover would have been thin (<5 m) in places. Moreover hundreds or thousands of asteroid impacts would have been big enough to melt the ice triggering brief impact summers. We suggest that plate tectonics as it works now was inadequate to handle typical Hadean heat flows of 0.2–0.5 W/m². In its place we hypothesize a convecting mantle capped by a ∼100 km deep basaltic mush that was relatively permeable to heat flow. Recycling and distillation of hydrous basalts produced granitic rocks very early, which is consistent with preserved >4 Ga detrital zircons. If carbonates in oceanic crust subducted as quickly as they formed, Earth could have been habitable as early as 10–20 Myrs after the Moon-forming impact.     

The ‘Standard’ Sun Modelling and Helioseismology

The ‘standard’ solar model is based on a number of simplifying assumptions and depends on knowledge of the physical properties of matter in the Sun. Given these assumptions, the constraint that the model have the observed surface luminosity provides an estimate of the initial solar helium abundance. From helioseismic analyses further information can be obtained about the present composition, including a fairly precise measure of the envelope helium abundance and an estimate of the hydrogen profile in the radiative interior. It must be emphasized, however, that these inferences may suffer from systematic error arising from incomplete knowledge about the equation of state and opacity of the solar interior. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.