Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.     

Time-Variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with two cloud transitions, within the past 10,000 years and a second one 20,000–30,000 years ago, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.     

Hard rock cosmic ray archaeology

Recent examinations of extraterrestrial materials exposed to cosmic rays for different intervals of time during the geological history of the solar system have generated a wealth of new information on the history of cosmic radiation. This information relates to the temporal variations in

1. the flux and energy spectrum of low energy (solar) protons of ? 10 MeV kinetic energy;
2. the flux and energy spectrum of (solar) heavy nuclei of Z > 20 of kinetic energy, 0.5–10 MeV/n;
3. the integrated flux of protons and heavier nuclei of ? 0.5 GeV kinetic energy, and
4. the flux and energy spectrum of nuclei of Z > 20 of medium energy — 100–2000 MeV/n kinetic energy.

The above studies are entirely based on the natural detector method which utilises two principal cosmogenic effects observed in rocks, (i) isotopic changes and (ii) changes in the crystalline structure of rock constituents, due to cosmogenic interactions. The information available to date in the field of hard rock cosmic ray archaeology refers to meteorites and lunar rocks/soil. Additional information based on study of cosmogenic effects in man-made materials exposed to cosmic radiation in space is also discussed. It is shown that the natural detectors inspite of their extreme simplicity have begun to provide cosmic ray information in a very quantitative and precise manner comparable to the most sophisticated electronic particle detectors. The single handicap in using the hard rock detectors is however the uncertainty regarding their manner of exposure, geometry etc. At present, a variety of techniques are being used to study the evolutionary history of extraterrestrial materials and as this field grows, uncertainties in cosmic ray archaeology will correspondingly decrease.     

10Be Production in the Atmosphere by Galactic Cosmic Rays

Galactic cosmic ray nuclei and energetic protons produced in solar flares and accelerated by coronal mass ejections are the main sources of high-energy particles of extraterrestrial origin in near-Earth space and inside the Earth’s atmosphere. The intensity of galactic cosmic rays inside the heliosphere is strongly influenced by the modulation of the interstellar source particles on their way through interplanetary space. Among others, this modulation depends on the activity of the Sun, and the resulting intensity of the energetic particles in the atmosphere is an indicator of the solar activity. Therefore, rare isotopes found in historical archives and produced by spallation reactions of primary and secondary hadrons of cosmic origin in the atmosphere, so-called cosmogenic nuclides, can be used to reconstruct the solar activity in the past. The production rate of ¹⁰Be, one of the cosmogenic nuclides most adequate to study the solar activity, is presented showing its variations with geographic latitude and altitude and the dependence on different production cross-sections present in literature. In addition, estimates for altitude integrated production rates of ¹⁰Be at different locations since the early nineteen sixties are shown.     

Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Requirements for Future Observations

Since the publication of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere in 1998 there has been great progress in understanding how and why cosmic rays vary in space and time. This paper discusses measurements that are needed to continue advances in relating cosmic ray variations to changes in solar and interplanetary activity and variations in the local interstellar environment. Cosmic ray acceleration and transport is an important discipline in space physics and astrophysics, but it also plays a critical role in defining the radiation environment for humans and hardware in space, and is critical to efforts to unravel the history of solar activity. Cosmic rays are measured directly by balloon-borne and space instruments, and indirectly by ground-based neutron, muon and neutrino detectors, and by measurements of cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores, tree-rings, sediments, and meteorites. The topics covered here include: what we can learn from the deep 2008–2009 solar minimum, when cosmic rays reached the highest intensities of the space era; the implications of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C isotope archives for past and future solar activity; the effects of variations in the size of the heliosphere; opportunities provided by the Voyagers for discovering the origin of anomalous cosmic rays and measuring cosmic-ray spectra in interstellar space; and future space missions that can continue the exciting exploration of the heliosphere that has occurred over the past 50 years.     

Cosmic Rays,Clouds, and Climate

A correlation between a global average of low cloud cover and the flux of cosmic rays incident in the atmosphere has been observed during the last solar cycle. The ionising potential of Earth bound cosmic rays are modulated by the state of the heliosphere, while clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget through trapping outgoing radiation and reflecting incoming radiation. If a physical link between these two features can be established, it would provide a mechanism linking solar activity and Earth's climate. Recent satellite observations have further revealed a correlation between cosmic ray flux and low cloud top temperature. The temperature of a cloud depends on the radiation properties determined by its droplet distribution. Low clouds are warm (>273K) and therefore consist of liquid water droplets. At typical atmospheric supersaturations (1%) a liquid cloud drop will only form in the presence of an aerosol, which acts as a condensation site. The droplet distribution of a cloud will then depend on the number of aerosols activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the level of super saturation. Based on observational evidence it is argued that a mechanism to explain the cosmic ray-cloud link might be found through the role of atmospheric ionisation in aerosol production and/or growth. Observations of local aerosol increases in low cloud due to ship exhaust indicate that a small perturbation in atmospheric aerosol can have a major impact on low cloud radiative properties. Thus, a moderate influence on atmospheric aerosol distributions from cosmic ray ionisation would have a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget. Historical evidence over the past 1000 years indicates that changes in climate have occurred in accord with variability in cosmic ray intensities. Such changes are in agreement with the sign of cloud radiative forcing associated with cosmic ray variability as estimated from satellite observations.     

Solar Variability and Clouds – Discussion Session 3c

Satellite observations have recently revealed a surprising imprint of the 11-year solar cycle on global low cloud cover. The cloud data suggest a correlation with the intensity of galactic cosmic rays. If this apparent connection between cosmic rays and clouds is real, variations of the cosmic ray flux caused by long-term changes in the solar wind could have a significant influence on the global energy radiation budget and the climate. However a direct link between cosmic rays and clouds has not been unambiguously established and, moreover, the microphysical mechanism is poorly understood. New experiments are being planned to find out whether cosmic rays can affect cloud formation, and if so how.     

What do Cosmogenic Isotopes Tell us About Past Solar Forcing of Climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth's atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.     

Cosmogenic Radionuclides as an Extension of the Neutron Monitor Era into the Past: Potential and Limitations

The cosmogenic radionuclides, ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C and others, provide a record of the paleo-cosmic radiation that extends >10,000 years into the past. They are the only quantitative means at our disposal to study the heliosphere prior to the commencement of routine sunspot observations in the 17th century. The cosmogenic radionuclides are primarily produced by secondary neutrons generated by the galactic cosmic radiation, and can be regarded, in a sense, as providing an extrapolation of the neutron monitor era into the past. However, their characteristics are quite different from the man-made neutron monitor in several important respects: (1) they are sensitive to somewhat lower cosmic ray energies; (2) their temporal resolution is ～1 to 2 years, being determined by the rapidity with which they are sequestered in ice, biological, or other archives; (3) the statistical precision for annual data is very poor (～19%); however it is quite adequate (～5% for 22-year averages) to study the large variations (±40%) that have occurred in the paleo-cosmic ray record in the past between grand solar minima and maxima. The data contains “noise” caused by local meteorological effects, and longer-term climate effects, and the use of principal component analysis to separate these “system” effects from production effects is outlined. The concentrations of ¹⁰Be decreased by a factor of two at the commencement of Holocene, the present-day “interglacial”, due to a 100% increase in the ice accumulation rates in polar regions. The use of the ¹⁰Be flux to study heliospheric properties during the last glacial is discussed briefly.     

Observations of Variability in Cosmic Rays

Cosmic rays are the main source of ionization in the atmosphere at altitudes below 55–60km. This circumstance, together with the fact that cosmic ray flux modulation closely mirrors the solar activity time history, makes cosmic rays a good candidate as a possible mediator in the solar variability – climate relationship. The observed cosmic ray flux variations are described with the aim of emphasizing the features which may be useful in the search of correlation between cosmic rays and atmospheric phenomena.     

Cosmic Rays and Earth's Climate

During the last solar cycle the Earth's cloud cover underwent a modulation in phase with the cosmic ray flux. Assuming that there is a causal relationship between the two, it is expected and found that the Earth's temperature follows more closely decade variations in cosmic ray flux than other solar activity parameters. If the relationship is real the state of the Heliosphere affects the Earth's climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An Overview of the Origin of Galactic Cosmic Rays as Inferred from Observations of Heavy Ion Composition and Spectra

The galactic cosmic rays arriving near Earth, which include both stable and long-lived nuclides from throughout the periodic table, consist of a mix of stellar nucleosynthesis products accelerated by shocks in the interstellar medium (ISM) and fragmentation products made by high-energy collisions during propagation through the ISM. Through the study of the composition and spectra of a variety of elements and isotopes in this diverse sample, models have been developed for the origin, acceleration, and transport of galactic cosmic rays. We present an overview of the current understanding of these topics emphasizing the insights that have been gained through investigations in the charge and energy ranges Z≲30 and E/M≲1 GeV/nuc, and particularly those using data obtained from the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer on NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer mission.     

Solar Influence on Earth's Climate

An increasing number of studies indicate that variations in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency is influenced by changing cloud properties via cosmic ray ionisation (the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (<3.2 km). GCR are responsible for nearly all ionisation in the atmosphere below 35 km. One mechanism could involve ion-induced formation of aerosol particles (diameter range, 0.001–1.0 μm) that can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A systematic variation in the properties of CCN will affect the cloud droplet distribution and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment, could influence Earth's radiation budget. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Topological defects and highest energy cosmic and gamma rays

In this paper we review the hypothesis that a substantial part of the cosmic ray flux observed above about 10¹⁹ eV may be produced by decaying or annihilating topological defects left over from phase transitions in the early universe at grand unification energy scales ( 10¹⁶ GeV). Possible signatures of cosmic ray producing defect models are discussed which could be tested experimentally in the near future. We thereby focus on model independent universal spectral properties of the predicted particle fluxes.     

Large Scale Modulation: View From the Earth

The current knowledge and ideas, obtained from groundlevel observations and concerning the solar modulation of cosmic rays, are reviewed. The following topics are discussed: observations of the cosmic ray modulation at the Earth and main characteristics of the accumulated experimental data; manifestations of the solar magnetic cycle in cosmic rays; the effect of hysteresis and its relation to the size of the heliosphere; the rigidity spectrum of long-term cosmic ray variations; the influence of the sporadic effects on long-term modulation; long-term variations of cosmic ray anisotropy and gradients; the place of groundlevel observations in current studies of cosmic ray modulation and their future prospects. Particular consideration is given to the correlation of long-term cosmic ray variations with different solar-heliospheric parameters, and to empirical models of cosmic ray modulation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Solar and Cosmic-Ray Synodic Periodicity (1969–1998)

The synodic recurrence of the Mt. Wilson plage index (MPSI) and the Calgary cosmic ray (CR) intensity is investigated, using the wavelet power spectra in the range of 18–38 days, during the last three solar cycles. The unique temporal coincidence between the quasi–synodic MPSI and the CR periods is detected in 1978–1982 (the 21st solar cycle). In the 22nd cycle there is a very strong MPSI synodic recurrence, from 1989.5 to 1990.5, but it is absent in the CR data. In 1992.5–1993.5 the MPSI and CR recurrence phenomenon is in good accordance with the solar wind speed and cosmic ray modulation as measured during the first Ulysses passage around the Sun. The Gnevyshev gap is present in the 27-day recurrence of CR, in agreement with Kudela et al. (1999). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmic ray Implications for Human Health

There appears to be concern among some people about the possible effects of cosmic radiation on everyday life. The amount of cosmic radiation that reaches the Earth and its environment is a function of solar cycle, altitude and latitude. The possible effect of naturally occurring cosmic radiation on airplane crews and space flight personal is a subject of current study. This paper discusses the variables controlling the cosmic ray flux in the atmosphere and describes models and software that have been developed that provide quantitative information about the cosmic radiation exposure at flight altitudes. The discussion is extended to include the cosmic radiation exposure to manned spacecraft. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity over the Past 106–109 Years as Recorded by Cosmogenic Nuclides in Meteorites and Terrestrial Samples

Concentrations of stable and radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray particles in meteorites allow us to track the long term average of the primary flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). During the past ～10 Ma, the average GCR flux remained constant over timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years, and, if corrected for known variations in solar modulation, also during the past several years to hundreds of years. Because the cosmic ray concentrations in meteorites represent integral signals, it is difficult to assess the limits of uncertainty of this statement, but they are larger than the often quoted analytical and model uncertainties of some 30%. Time series of concentrations of the radionuclide ¹⁰Be in terrestrial samples strengthen the conclusions drawn from meteorite studies, indicating that the GCR intensity on a ～0.5 million year scale has remained constant within some ±10% during the past ～10 million years. The very long-lived radioactive nuclide ⁴⁰K allows to assess the GCR flux over about the past one billion years. The flux over the past few million years has been the same as the longer-term average in the past 0.5–1 billion years within a factor of ～1.5. However, newer data do not confirm a long-held belief that the flux in the past few million years has been higher by some 30–50% than the very long term average. Neither does our analysis confirm a hypothesis that the iron meteorite data indicate a ～150 million year periodicity in the cosmic ray flux, possibly related to variations in the long-term terrestrial climate.     

Grad-Shafranov Reconstruction of Magnetic Flux Ropes in the Near-Earth Space

Electric currents permeate space plasmas and often have a significant component along the magnetic field to form magnetic flux ropes. A larger spatial perspective of these structures than from the direct observation along the satellite path is crucial in visualizing their role in plasma dynamics. For magnetic flux ropes that are approximately two-dimensional equilibrium structures on a certain plane, Grad-Shafranov reconstruction technique, developed by Bengt Sonnerup and his colleagues (see Sonnerup et al. in J. Geophys. Res. 111:A09204, 2006), can be used to reveal two-dimensional maps of associated plasma and field parameters. This review gives a brief account of the technique and its application to magnetic flux ropes near the Earth’s magnetopause, in the solar wind, and in the magnetotail. From this brief survey, the ranges of the total field-aligned current and the total magnetic flux content for these magnetic flux ropes are assessed. The total field-aligned current is found to range from ∼0.14 to ∼9.7×10⁴ MA, a range of nearly six orders of magnitude. The total magnetic flux content is found to range from ∼0.25 to ∼2.3×10⁶ MWb, a range of nearly seven orders of magnitude. To the best of our knowledge, this review reports the largest range of both the total field-aligned current and the total magnetic flux content for magnetic flux ropes in space plasmas.     

Cosmic Rays in Relation to Space Weather

A review of selected experimental results relevant for the use of cosmic ray records in Space Weather research is presented. Interplanetary perturbations, initiated in the solar atmosphere, affect galactic cosmic rays. In some cases their influence on the cosmic ray intensity results in data signatures that can possibly be used to predict geomagnetic storm onsets. Case studies illustrating the complexity of the cosmic ray effects and related geomagnetic activity precursors are discussed. It is shown that some indices for cosmic ray activity are good tools for testing the reliability of cosmic ray characteristics for Space Weather forecasts. A brief summary of the influence of cosmic rays on the ozone layer is also given. The use of cosmic ray data for Space Weather purposes is still in its infant stage, but suggestions for both case and statistical studies are made. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.