基于核主成分分析的空域复杂度无监督评估

空域复杂度评估作为衡量空域运行态势、管制员工作压力的关键手段，是运行调控的基础。由于影响因素众多，不同因素间耦合关联复杂，且标定样本很难获取，空域复杂度的准确评估被公认为航空领域的一个挑战性问题。提出了一种空域复杂度的无监督评估方法。首先通过核主成分分析挖掘原始样本各维度的非线性耦合关系，准确提取能够最大化复杂度评估信息量的主成分，进一步设计了可按需定制的主成分聚类方法，实现了无监督条件下空域复杂度的准确评估，为空域划分、流量管理提供了有效的技术支撑。     

基于云模型的空管安全运行保障能力评价

空管安全运行保障能力对空管安全运营具有非常重要的影响。考虑影响空管安全运行保障能力的各种因素的模糊性和随机性,引入云模型理论对空管安全运行保障能力实现定量评价;基于空管安全运行管理的特点,构建空管安全运行保障能力的评价指标体系,应用排队理论对评价指标进行权重赋值,以克服主观因素对权重赋值的影响;通过逆向云发生器计算空管安全运行保障能力评价指标的云数字特征,得到安全运行保障能力的评价云。通过实例应用进行验证,结果表明：云模型能够对空管安全运行保障能力进行整体准确评价,并能找出影响保障能力的主要环节,有助于空管部门采取针对性措施提高保障能力。     

基于组合赋权的空管系统安全风险物元评价

空管系统的安全风险状况对航空运输安全运营有直接的影响。综合考虑空管系统安全运行管理的特点,构建空管系统安全风险的评价指标体系;应用欧几里得距离函数对空管系统安全风险评价指标进行组合赋权,确定空管系统安全风险评价指标的组合权重;引入物元分析方法建立空管系统安全风险评价物元模型,并进行实例验证。结果表明:物元分析方法能够评估空管系统整体的安全风险状况,得到了各个评价指标的安全风险状况,有助于采取针对性的有效措施提高空管部门的安全风险管理水平。     

空中交通复杂性研究进展

空中交通复杂性是空中交通态势的本质属性，是空中交通管制工作负荷的主要驱动因素。空中交通复杂性的科学评价是实现空中交通精细化管理的关键，也是当前空管领域研究热点。本文介绍了国内外空中交通复杂性的研究团队，梳理了空中交通复杂性与工作负荷、安全水平等相互之间的区别和联系，并详细分析了现有研究的具体研究路线。在分析新一代空中交通管理系统特征的基础上，对空中交通复杂性的未来研究趋势和方向进行了展望。     

基于空中交通管制运行品质的扇区容量评估

扇区容量反映的是扇区空中交通管制运行品质诸多要素综合寻优下的流量水平,目前将扇区管制员工作负荷阈值映射为扇区容量的评估方法存在片面性。为改善扇区容量评估方法,以成都进近南扇为研究实例,采集198组实际运行数据建立样本集,确立了涵盖空中交通流密度、管制运行安全性能、管制运行效率性能及管制员工作负荷等4类因子的管制运行品质量化指标,并基于主成分分析法实现了扇区管制运行品质综合评价,经函数拟合确定扇区容量为29架次/h,新方法更具科学性、客观性。     

管制员信息处理能力模糊评价

信息处理能力是管制员能力和工作负荷的重要组成部分。针对此方面缺乏系统研究的实际，详细分析了管制员信息处理能力的影响因素，给出了评价指标体系，建立了多级模糊评价模型，实现了此能力的量化评价。通过对管制员的具体评价，符合管制员的自身情况，证明了方法的有效性。     

Evaluation of conflict-resolution policies on controller taskload

In an effort to maintain safety while satisfying growing air traffic demand, air navigation service providers are considering the inclusion of advisory systems to identify potential conflicts and propose resolution commands for the air traffic controller to verify and issue to aircraft. To understand the potential workload implications of introducing advisory conflict-detection and resolution tools, this paper examines a metric of controller taskload: how many resolution commands an air traffic controller issues under the guidance of an advisory system. Through a simulation study, the research presented here evaluates how the underlying protocol of a conflict-resolution tool affects the controller taskload (system demands) associated with the conflict-resolution process, and implicitly the controller workload (physical and psychological demands). Ultimately, evidence indicates that there is significant flexibility in the design of conflict-resolution algorithms supporting an advisory system.     

中国空中交通流量管理系统的组织设计——以工作地点为基础的多层次人机组织设计的应用

描述了人机系统的基本组成：人的控制系统和技术控制系统。由于控制对象的复杂性，将其整个活动划分为多个子活动，位于不同的工作地点，在每个地点建立相应的人机系统，这就构成了以工作地点为基础的人机系统。依据工作地点之间的联系，确立人机的一现多样性：集中式、分散式、层次式。根据目前中国空中交通流量管理的现状，参考以工作地点为的人机系统设计方法，建立多层次的中国流量管理组织结构，实现有效的人机合作，以此协调各方面的活动与关系，保证空中交通安全有序。     

空中交通拥挤的识别与预测方法研究

随着航空运输业的迅猛发展,空中交通拥挤现象日益严重,空中交通拥挤研究已经成为国际民航界的一个研究热点。其中,空中交通拥挤的识别与预测是空中交通拥挤研究的主要内容之一,在此基础上综述了国内外有关空中交通拥挤识别与预测方法的研究状况。首先概述了基于不同拥挤形成因素和拥挤后果的空中交通拥挤概念的研究状况;接着依据所用交通数据时间尺度的不同,分别针对基于短期数据的阈值判别方法、基于长期数据的聚类识别方法以及基于混合数据的综合评价方法综述了空中交通拥挤的主要识别方法;然后分别基于数理算法(统计算法、交通流模型算法和智能算法)和计算机仿真模拟技术综述了空中交通拥挤的主要预测方法;最后指出了空中交通拥挤识别与预测问题的近年研究热点和未来的研究方向。     

A knowledge-based en route monitor for air traffic control

The en route monitor system (ERMS), which is a software system designed to assist human controllers, was developed as a tool for the control center. A domain-specific knowledge-based design approach was used. The system is implemented in Turbo Prolog. The problem and solution techniques are discussed in detail, and examples and simulations are demonstrated to show the potential application of the ERMS in air traffic control     

An evolutionary computational framework for capacity-safety trade-off in an air transportation network

Airspace safety and airport capacity are two key challenges to sustain the growth in Air Transportation. In this paper, we model the Air Transportation Network as two sub-networks of airspace and airports, such that the safety and capacity of the overall Air Transportation network emerge from the interaction between the two. We propose a safety-capacity trade-off approach,using a computational framework, where the two networks can inter-act and the trade-off between capacity and safety in an Air Transport Network can be established. The framework comprise of an evolutionary computation based air traffic scenario generation using a flow capacity estimation module(for capacity), Collision risk estimation module(for safety) and an air traffic simulation module(for evaluation). The proposed methodology to evolve air traffic scenarios such that it minimizes collision risk for given capacity estimation was tested on two different air transport network topologies(random and small-world) with the same number of airports. Experimental results indicate that though airspace collision risk increases almost linearly with the increasing flow(flow intensity) in the corresponding airport network, the critical flow depend on the underlying network configuration. It was also found that, in general, the capacity upper bound depends not only on the connectivity among airports and their individual performances but also the configuration of waypoints and mid-air interactions among conflicts. Results also show that airport network can accommodate more traffic in terms of capacity but the corresponding airspace network cannot accommodate the resulting traffic flow due to the bounds on collision risk.     

民用机场及附近空域空中交通流量优化

针对民航客运需求快速增长所带来的航班延误和空域拥塞问题,提出一种优化民用机场及附近空域空中交通流量的方法。通过空中交通走廊容量评估方法,对经典优化模型进行了发展和改进,建立起综合性优化模型;将机场和附近空域视为一个整体系统,根据交通需求和容量的相互关系动态调整航班流量和机场起降容量;在优化计算时,提出一种兼顾效率和准确性的新型优化算法。通过算例对所述优化方法进行了验证,该方法可以为空中交通管制人员进行流量优化分配提供参考。     

空中交通管制员疲劳检测与管理综述

我国民航事业的发展需要依靠大型运输客机的自主研发和高效的空中交通管理体系两大软硬实力的支撑。空中交通管制员作为空中交通管理的核心要素,其疲劳状态的检测与管理对于航空安全具有重要作用。本文首先从传统主观量表评定和客观评定方法两个方面详细阐述了国内外疲劳检测的研究成果,分析其优缺点;然后介绍了基于语音分析的管制员疲劳特征提取与检测算法,并且着重介绍了基于深度学习模型的语音疲劳状态识别算法;最后阐述了管制员疲劳检测成果对管制运行安全和效率提升的应用前景。研究成果可为从事管制员疲劳检测与管理的研究人员提供参考和借鉴。     

基于灰色关联聚类的空中交通复杂度评估方法

为了准确评价空中交通态势的复杂程度,进行有效的空中交通管理,提出了一种空中交通复杂度评估方法。在已有的理论研究成果及实际运行经验的基础上,归纳了定义明确、可定量分析的基础空中交通指标集,使用灰色关联聚类方法对指标集进行聚类分析,利用信息熵理论对聚类指标求解权重,加权求和获得空中交通复杂度。方法弥补了目前使用单一维度指标描述空中交通运行态势的弊端,能更好地体现空中交通复杂度。     

Communication System Architecture for Air Traffic Management and Weather Information Dissemination

The authors present the communication system architecture for air traffic management and weather information dissemination as viewed within the context of the overall National Airspace System (NAS) and the services it provides. This presents the architecture in the 2015 time frame when the final phases of transition take place from analog voice to digital data exchange of common data via integrated networks. The results of this transition are an integrated collection of systems and procedures that efficiently use the capacity of the NAS while balancing access to all user classes and maintaining the highest levels of safety. Efficient collaboration among users is built on a foundation of common data. This information base provides common situational awareness to all participants. All users are accommodated and will receive benefits commensurate with equipage level. This architecture development provides a technical framework for decision-making, research, and analysis of communication technologies     

Measuring air traffic complexity based on small samples

Air traffic complexity is an objective metric for evaluating the operational condition of the airspace.It has several applications,such as airspace design and traffic flow management.Therefore,identifying a reliable method to accurately measure traffic complexity is important.Considering that many factors correlate with traffic complexity in complicated nonlinear ways,researchers have proposed several complexity evaluation methods based on machine learning models which were trained with large samples.However,the high cost of sample collection usually results in limited training set.In this paper,an ensemble learning model is proposed for measuring air traffic complexity within a sector based on small samples.To exploit the classification information within each factor,multiple diverse factor subsets (FSSs) are generated under guidance from factor noise and independence analysis.Then,a base complexity evaluator is built corresponding to each FSS.The final complexity evaluation result is obtained by integrating all results from the base evaluators.Experimental studies using real-world air traffic operation data demonstrate the advantages of our model for small-sample-based traffic complexity evaluation over other stateof-the-art methods.     

A Statistical Evaluation of Aircraft Collision-Hazard Warning System Techniques in the Terminal Area

The rapidly increasing density of air traffic has created a demand for instrumentation to reduce the possibility of air catastrophes due to collision. The incidence of reported near-collisions is now estimated to be over 2000 per year in the United States, and represents a serious threat to the future growth of air travel. Since mid-1967, research has been conducted by NASA and the Research Triangle Institute to develop techniques for evaluation of collision warning systems and to determine the characteristics of the operational environment. Actual aircraft traffic data have been obtained by the FAA from the radar system at the Atlanta Airport. These data have been analyzed to determine encounter statistics which would result with various forms of warning criteria. This paper reviews the definition of several proposed warning criteria and presents the results of the statistical analyses of the data. Probabilities of encounter, encounter rates, and average encounter durations are determined for various definitions of the encounter.     

基于多目标帝国竞争算法的进场排序与调度

为兼顾空管、机场、航司以及民众的不同诉求,提出了基于多目标帝国竞争算法的进场排序与调度方法,达到平衡交通需求与进场管理的目的。首先,借鉴机器调度领域研究成果,梳理与精简进场排序与调度的评价指标,并结合运行约束构建多目标进场排序与调度模型。接着,引入非支配排序,设计多目标帝国竞争算法,给出衡量帕累托解集优劣的评价指标。最后,采用通用数据集与长沙黄花机场实际运行数据实施案例进行仿真与验证。结果表明：提出的多目标帝国竞争算法,相对于带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法以及多目标模拟退火算法而言,解集更占支配地位、分布更均匀、收敛性更好,求解的效率也更高;提出的算法能有效实现进场排序与调度,即便以标准间隔的1.8倍实施仿真,总延误时间、总飞行时间和最大飞行时间,相对于实际运行分别降低了41.2%、11.4%和8.6%。     

Multiple hierarchy risk assessment with hybrid model for safety enhancing of unmanned subscale BWB demonstrator flight test

To explore the low-speed characteristics of the Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) configuration for future civil aircraft, a series of unmanned subscale demonstrators have been developed and tested by our research team. During this process, specific safety risks deriving from uncertain design features, system unreliability, and insufficient personnel experience caused continuous flight test mishaps and the risk mechanism was not clear. Local and trial-and-error learning driven safety improvements took few effects on mishap prevention, so our focus was turned to look for systematic safety strategies. This paper establishes a systems theory based hybrid model to integrate the physical system reliability analysis techniques with the system dynamics method for illustrating the multiple risk interactions of the demonstrator flight test involving organizational, human resource and technical system factors. Using the prior BB-5 demonstrator as a case, the hybrid model simulation represents its historical risk evolution process, which verifies the model rationality. Derived risk control strategies reduced the mishap rate of a new demonstrator called BB-6 Sprit. The paper also shows the extended hybrid model can be applied on safety management of unmanned aerial vehicles from the initial period of vehicle development.     

某型导弹靶标研制的风险评估研究

武器装备研制过程存在各种风险，准确地对风险进行评估，可有效减少风险造成的损失。针对武器装备的研制风险，介绍了风险评估的方法，并结合风险因子、技术特征因子和实验条件因子，给出风险计算公式。最后结合某导弹靶标系统进行了风险评估。