Multiple hierarchy risk assessment with hybrid model for safety enhancing of unmanned subscale BWB demonstrator flight test

To explore the low-speed characteristics of the Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) configuration for future civil aircraft, a series of unmanned subscale demonstrators have been developed and tested by our research team. During this process, specific safety risks deriving from uncertain design features, system unreliability, and insufficient personnel experience caused continuous flight test mishaps and the risk mechanism was not clear. Local and trial-and-error learning driven safety improvements took few effects on mishap prevention, so our focus was turned to look for systematic safety strategies. This paper establishes a systems theory based hybrid model to integrate the physical system reliability analysis techniques with the system dynamics method for illustrating the multiple risk interactions of the demonstrator flight test involving organizational, human resource and technical system factors. Using the prior BB-5 demonstrator as a case, the hybrid model simulation represents its historical risk evolution process, which verifies the model rationality. Derived risk control strategies reduced the mishap rate of a new demonstrator called BB-6 Sprit. The paper also shows the extended hybrid model can be applied on safety management of unmanned aerial vehicles from the initial period of vehicle development.