Modeling the solar cosmic ray event of 13 December 2006 using ground level neutron monitor data

In order to understand the physics under extreme solar conditions such as those producing ground level enhancements of solar cosmic rays, it is important to use accurate and reliable models. The NM-BANGLE Model is a new cosmic ray model which couples primary solar cosmic rays at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere with the secondary ones detected at ground level by neutron monitors during GLEs. This model calculates the evolution of several GLE parameters such as the solar cosmic ray spectrum, anisotropy and particle flux distribution, revealing crucial information on the energetic particle propagation and distribution. The total output of the NM-BANGLE Model is a multi-dimensional GLE picture that gives an important contribution to revealing the characteristics of solar energetic particle events recorded at ground level. In this work, the results of the NM-BANGLE Model application to the recent GLE of 13 December 2006 are presented and discussed. Moreover, a comparison with the extreme event of 20 January 2005 (GLE69) has been realized.     

Identification of high energy solar particle signals on the Mexico City neutron monitor database

We performed a search for ground level solar cosmic ray enhancements on the full five minute database of the Mexico City neutron monitor using wavelet filters and two different statistical tests. We present a detailed analysis of the time series of November 2, 1992, where we found a previously unreported increment matching the onset time of the impulsive phase of GLE 54, thus providing evidence of an effective detection of high energy solar cosmic rays.     

Computation of radiation environment during ground level enhancements 65, 69 and 70 at equatorial region and flight altitudes

The radiation environment in the troposphere of the Earth is governed by cosmic rays of galactic and solar origin. During major solar energetic particles events the radiation environment changes dramatically. As a results the risk of biological effects due to exposure to ionizing radiation of aircrew increases. Here we present a numerical model for computation of absorbed dose in air due to cosmic rays of galactic and solar origin. It is applied for computation of radiation environment at flight altitude in the equatorial region during several major ground level enhancements, namely GLE65 on 28 October 2003, GLE69 on 20 January 2005 and GLE70 on 13 December 2006. The model is based on a full Monte Carlo simulation of cosmic ray induced atmospheric cascade. The cascade simulation is carried out with CORSIKA 6.990 code with corresponding hadron generators FLUKA 2011 and QGSJET II. The contribution of different cascade components, namely electromagnetic, hadron and muon is explicitly obtained. The spectra of arriving solar energetic particles are calculated from ground level measurements with neutron monitors and satellite data from GOES. The obtained results are discussed.     

A study of the ground level enhancement of 23 February 1956

One of the greatest and most famous increase of solar cosmic rays over the neutron monitor epoch is the ground level enhancement in 1956. All future proton events are inevitable when compared with this one and therefore it is necessary to provide the efficiency of such a comparison derived from the existing data. In this paper, we return to the analysis of ground level observations on 23 February 1956 in order to model more precisely the solar cosmic ray behaviour. The extremely high magnitude of this effect allowed various spectral characteristics of solar cosmic rays, their anisotropy, differential and integral proton fluxes, and angular distribution of the source of solar particle anisotropy to be obtained with sufficient accuracy on the basis of available data from 13 neutron monitors. The most outstanding feature of this event was a narrow and extremely intensive beam of ultra relativistic particles arriving at Earth at the beginning of the event. This unique beam was not long and its width did not exceed 30–40°, thus, its contribution to solar particle density was not significant. Many features of this GLE are apparently explained by the peculiarity of particle interplanetary propagation from a remote (limb or behind of limb) source.     

Neutron monitor asymptotic directions of viewing during the event of 13 December 2006

During the recent ground level enhancement of 13 December 2006, also known as GLE70, solar cosmic ray particles of energy bigger that ∼500 MeV/nucleon propagated inside the Earth’s magnetosphere and finally accessed low-altitude satellites and ground level neutron monitors. The magnitude and the characteristics of this event registered at different neutron monitor stations of the worldwide network can be interpreted adequately on the basis of an estimation of the solar particle trajectories in the near Earth interplanetary space. In this work, an extended representation of the Earth’s magnetic field was realized applying the Tsyganenko 1989 model. Using a numerical back-tracing technique the solar proton trajectories inside the magnetospheric field of the Earth were calculated for a variety of particles, initializing their travel at different locations, covering a wide range of energies. In this way, the asymptotic directions of viewing were calculated for a significant number of neutron monitor stations, providing crucial information on the Earth’s “magnetospheric optics” for primary solar cosmic rays, on the top of the atmosphere, during the big solar event of December 2006. The neutron monitor network has been treated, therefore, as a multidimensional tool that gives insights into the arrival directions of solar cosmic ray particles as well as their spatial and energy distributions during extreme solar events.     

On transmissivity of low energy cosmic rays in disturbed magnetosphere

Access of low energy cosmic rays to any position on the Earth depends on the state of the magnetosphere. Anisotropy of cosmic rays, deduced from the neutron monitor network, must assume the variable transmissivity of the magnetosphere especially during the geomagnetic disturbances. We illustrate that computations based on different available models of geomagnetic field during selected strong geomagnetic disturbances in 2003 and 2004 imply different profiles of cut-off rigidities in time, different transmissivity functions and different asymptotic directions. Using of cosmic ray records by neutron monitors at middle and low latitudes during geomagnetically active periods, in addition to cosmic ray anisotropy in interplanetary space deduced from high and low energy cosmic ray ground based measurements, may be used for checking validity of geomagnetic field models.     

Test alert service against very large SEP Events

The Aragats Solar Environment Center provides real time monitoring of different components of secondary cosmic ray fluxes. We plan to use this information to establish an early warning alert system against extreme, very large solar particle events with hard spectra, dangerous for satellite electronics and for the crew of the Space Station. Neutron monitors operating at altitude 2000 and 3200 m are continuously gathering data to detect possible abrupt variations of the particle count rates. Additional high precision detectors measuring muon and electron fluxes, along with directional information are under construction on Mt. Aragats. Registered ground level enhancements, in neutron and muon fluxes along with correlations between different species of secondary cosmic rays are analyzed to reveal possible correlations with expected times of arrival of dangerous solar energetic particles.     

Applications and usage of the real-time Neutron Monitor Database

A high-time resolution Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) has started to be realized in the frame of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission. This database will include cosmic ray data from at least 18 neutron monitors distributed around the world and operated in real-time. The implementation of the NMDB will provide the opportunity for several research applications most of which will be realized in real-time mode. An important one will be the establishment of an Alert signal when dangerous solar cosmic ray particles are heading to the Earth, resulting into ground level enhancements effects registered by neutron monitors. Furthermore, on the basis of these events analysis, the mapping of all ground level enhancement features in near real-time mode will provide an overall picture of these phenomena and will be used as an input for the calculation of the ionization of the atmosphere. The latter will be useful together with other contributions to radiation dose calculations within the atmosphere at several altitudes and will reveal the absorbed doses during flights. Moreover, special algorithms for anisotropy and pitch angle distribution of solar cosmic rays, which have been developed over the years, will also be set online offering the advantage to give information about the conditions of the interplanetary space. All of the applications will serve the needs of the modern world which relies at space environment and will use the extensive network of neutron monitors as a multi-directional spectrographic detector. On top of which, the decreases of the cosmic ray intensity – known as Forbush decreases – will also be analyzed and a number of important parameters such as galactic cosmic ray anisotropy will be made available to the users of NMDB. A part of the NMDB project is also dedicated to the creation of a public outreach website with the scope to inform about cosmic rays and their possible effects on humans, technological systems and space-terrestrial environment. Therefore, NMDB will also stand as an informative gate on space research through neutron monitor’s data usage.     

The scaler mode in the Pierre Auger Observatory to study heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays

The impact of the solar activity on the heliosphere has a strong influence on the modulation of the flux of low energy galactic cosmic rays arriving at Earth. Different instruments, such as neutron monitors or muon detectors, have been recording the variability of the cosmic ray flux at ground level for several decades. Although the Pierre Auger Observatory was designed to observe cosmic rays at the highest energies, it also records the count rates of low energy secondary particles (the scaler mode) for the self-calibration of its surface detector array. From observations using the scaler mode at the Pierre Auger Observatory, modulation of galactic cosmic rays due to solar transient activity has been observed (e.g., Forbush decreases). Due to the high total count rate coming from the combined area of its detectors, the Pierre Auger Observatory (its detectors have a total area greater than 16,000 m²) detects a flux of secondary particles of the order of ∼10⁸ counts per minute. Time variations of the cosmic ray flux related to the activity of the heliosphere can be determined with high accuracy. In this paper we briefly describe the scaler mode and analyze a Forbush decrease together with the interplanetary coronal mass ejection that originated it. The Auger scaler data are now publicly available.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and IMF in the vicinity of interplanetary shocks

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and interplanetary magnetic field upstream of interplanetary shocks are studied using data of ground-based polar neutron monitors as well as measurements of energetic particles and solar wind plasma parameters aboard the ACE spacecraft. It is shown that coherent cosmic ray fluctuations in the energy range from 10 keV to 1 GeV are often observed at the Earth’s orbit before the arrival of interplanetary shocks. This corresponds to an increase of solar wind turbulence level by more than the order of magnitude upstream of the shock. We suggest a scenario where the cosmic ray fluctuation spectrum is modulated by fast magnetosonic waves generated by flux of low-energy cosmic rays which are reflected and/or accelerated by an interplanetary shock.     

The solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements on 20 January 2005 and 13 December 2006

Close to the current solar activity minimum, two large solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements (GLE) were recorded by the worldwide network of neutron monitors (NM). The enormous GLE on 20 January 2005 is the largest increase observed since the famous GLE in 1956, and the solar cosmic-ray event recorded on 13 December 2006 is among the largest in solar cycle 23. From the recordings of the NMs during the two GLEs, we determined the characteristics of the solar particle flux near Earth.     

Interactive database of cosmic ray anisotropy (DB-A10)

The worldwide neutron monitor network is a unique tool for obtaining with high accuracy the information on density variations, energy spectrum and anisotropy of comic rays at the Earth, outside its atmosphere and magnetosphere. These hourly averaged parameters were obtained over the whole period of cosmic ray monitoring by the ground level neutron monitor network (from 1957 till present) and are collected within the MySQL database. The Internet-project has developed for free access and supplying of cosmic ray density and anisotropy data in different formats.     

Statistical study of the detection of solar protons of highest energies at 20 January 2005

On January 20, 2005, 7:02–7:04 UT the Aragats Multichannel Muon Monitor (AMMM) registered enhancement of the high energy secondary muon flux (energy threshold ∼5 GeV). The enhancement, lasting 3 min, has statistical significance of ∼4σ and is related to the X7.1 flare seen by the GOES satellite and the ground level enhancement detected by the world-wide network of neutron monitors and by muon detectors. The most probable proton energy corresponding to the measured 5 GeV muon flux is within 23–30 GeV. Due to upmost importance of the detection of solar particles of highest energies in presented paper we perform detailed statistical analysis of the detected peak. The statistical technique introduced in the paper is also appropriate for the searches of sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays.     

Flight safety implications of the extreme solar proton event of 23 February 1956

There is considerable speculation about the effects at aircraft altitudes resulting from extreme solar proton events. The ground level event (GLE) of 23 February 1956 (GLE 5), remains the largest solar proton event of the neutron monitor era in terms of its influence on count rates at monitors near sea level. During this GLE the count rate was increased by as much as 4760% (15-min average) at the Leeds monitor relative to the count rate from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Two modern models of the event cumulative solar proton spectrum for this event, a 6-parameter fit in energy and a 4-parameter Band fit in rigidity, are compared with 1-h of GCR at solar minimum. While effective doses calculated with CARI-7A for both models at low geomagnetic cutoff rigidities are indeed high when compared with GCR and can exceed recommended exposure limits, both GLE spectra exhibit a much stronger dependence on cutoff rigidity than GCR, and a larger fraction of the dose from neutrons. At locations with cutoff rigidities above 4.2 and 6.4?GV, respectively, the GLE effective doses are smaller than the GCR hourly dose. At locations with cutoff rigidities above about 4?GV, GCR was the dominant source of exposure in 10?h or less at all altitudes examined. This suggests that if a similar event occurs in the future, low- and mid-latitude flights at modern jet flight altitudes could be well-protected by Earth’s magnetic field.     

On the early phase of relativistic solar particle events: Are there signatures of acceleration mechanism?

Many physical processes precede and accompany the solar energetic particles (SEP) occurrence on the Earth’s orbit. Explosive energy release on the Sun gives rise to a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME). X-ray and gamma emissions are believed to be connected with flares. Radio emission is signature of disturbances traveling through the corona and interplanetary space. Particles can gain energy both in the flare and the accompanying wave processes. The beginning of the SEP events has the advantage of being the phase most close to the time of acceleration. Influence of interplanetary transport is minimal in the case of first arriving relativistic solar protons recorded by ground based neutron monitors in so called ground-level enhancements (GLE). The early phase of the SEP events attracts attention of many scientists searching for the understanding of particle acceleration. However, they come to the opposite conclusions. While some authors find arguments for coronal mass ejections as a sole accelerator of SEPs, others prove a flare to be the SEP origin. Here, the circumstances of SEP generation for several GLEs of the 23rd solar cycle are considered. Timing of X-ray, CME, and radio emissions shows a great variety from event to event. However, the time of particle ejection from the Sun is closer to maximum of X-ray emission than to any other phenomena considered. No correlation is found between the particle fluxes and the CME characteristics.     

Calculated cosmic rays dynamics before the geomagnetic storms onset caused by the interplanetary shocks

Dynamics of the galactic cosmic ray intensity caused by their interactions with a shock front in the September 9, 1992 event has been determined. Corresponding variations of the cosmic ray intensity have been calculated for different stations of the world network of neutron monitors and muon telescopes of stations Nagoya and Sakashita. Comparison calculated results with observational data shows, in general, satisfactory consensus both on amplitude and in time. The developed method can be used for investigation dynamics of the solar wind disturbances precursors in the cosmic rays.     

Ionization effect of solar protons in the Earth atmosphere – Case study of the 20 January 2005 SEP event

The cosmic ray ground level enhancement on January 20, 2005 is among the largest recorded events in the history of cosmic ray measurements. The solar protons of MeV energies cause an excess of ionization in the atmosphere, specifically over polar caps following major solar disturbances. The ionization effect in the Earth atmosphere is obtained for various latitudes on the basis of solar proton energy spectra, reconstructed from GOES 11 measurements and subsequent full Monte Carlo simulation of cosmic ray induced atmospheric cascade. The estimation of ionization rates is based on a numerical model for cosmic ray induced ionization. The evolution of atmospheric cascade is performed with the CORSIKA 6.52 code using FLUKA 2006b and QGSJET II hadron interaction models. The atmospheric ion rate ionization is explicitly obtained for 40°N, 60°N and 80°N latitudes. The time evolution of obtained ion rates is presented. It is demonstrated that ionization effect is negative for 40°N and small for 60°N, because of accompanying Forbush decrease. The ionization effect is significant only in sub-polar and polar atmosphere during the major ground level enhancement of 20 January 2005.     

Change in the rigidity dependence of the galactic cosmic ray modulation in 2008–2009

Observations of charged particle fluxes in the stratosphere of the polar regions represent the cosmic rays variations with energy above 100 MeV. At the end of 2009 these fluxes reached the highest level for the time of observations from mid 1957 and were by 17% higher than the previous extremum value of May 1965. In the mean time the ground-based neutron monitors showed the remarkably less count rate enhancement. These results argue for the significant change in the energy spectrum of incoming particles in 2008–2009 in the energy range of ∼100–1500 MeV/n.     

1989年9月29日GLE事件的特征

1989年9月29日发生了30多年来最大的地面宇宙线增强事件(即GLE事件)。本文描述这次世界范围内的大事件的主要特征,包括强度时间变化、能谱、各向异性以及地理位置上的分布特征,并简述了这次事件对地球环境产生的影响。