Influence of the Solar Cycle on the General Circulation of the Stratosphere and Upper Troposphere

The record of dynamical structure reveals a systematic variation that operates coherently with the 11-yr variation of UV irradiance. Involving periods shorter than 5 years, the systematic variation reflects the influence of the QBO on the polar-night vortex. It has the same basic structure as interannual changes associated with the residual mean circulation of the stratosphere. A signature of the solar cycle also appears in the direct correlation to solar flux, as recovered through regression of the entire monthly record. That signature, however, is sharply enhanced around solstice, when the residual circulation is active, and during extremal phases of the QBO. In the tropics, the solar signature follows, throughout the year, from a decadal modulation in the frequency of the QBO. The modulation is manifested to either side of the QBO’s mean frequency, in two spectral peaks where the QBO dwells: one at (24 months)⁻¹, reflecting a Biennial Oscillation (BO), and another at (36 months)^-1. Intrinsic to the QBO, those peaks are separated from its mean frequency by ∼11 years⁻¹.Through the QBO’s residual circulation, the decadal modulation introduces anomalies in the subtropics, with symmetry about the equator. Accompanying anomalous temperature in the subtropics is a stronger signature over the winter pole. Discovered by Labitzke and van Loon 1988, that solar signature reflects anomalous downwelling of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. It is shown to follow through the BO, which is intrinsic to the QBO and its modulation of the polar-night vortex.     

The Role of Dynamics in Solar Forcing

This paper reviews the solar influence on climate through stratospheric dynamical processes. There are two possible processes, both being a consequence of the wave-mean flow interaction in the upper stratosphere. One involves changes in the vertical propagation of planetary waves and the resultant tropospheric circulation change in the extratropics of the winter hemisphere. The other involves change in the global meridional circulation in the stratosphere and associated convective activity change in the tropics. These processes have been discussed on an 11-year solar cycle, but they are also applicable for centennial-scale solar influence on climate.     

Solar Variation and Stratospheric Response

We have shown in several recent publications that it is necessary to group the meteorological data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) throughout the year, in order to find a clear signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle (SSC). This work is summarized here. It is the purpose of this paper (1) to update earlier results of the solar cycle – QBO relationship for the northern winter, (2) to stress the interaction between the hemispheres and (3) to summarize the influence of the QBO on the solar variability signal, as well as the influence of the solar variability signal on the QBO throughout the year. For this, the constructed annual mean of the solar cycle – QBO relationship is introduced.     

Equatorial and Low Latitude Ionospheric Effects During Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

There are several external sources of ionospheric forcing, including these are solar wind-magnetospheric processes and lower atmospheric winds and waves. In this work we review the observed ion-neutral coupling effects at equatorial and low latitudes during large meteorological events called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Research in this direction has been accelerated in recent years mainly due to: (1) extensive observing campaigns, and (2) solar minimum conditions. The former has been instrumental to capture the events before, during, and after the peak SSW temperatures and wind perturbations. The latter has permitted a reduced forcing contribution from solar wind-magnetospheric processes. The main ionospheric effects are clearly observed in the zonal electric fields (or vertical E×B drifts), total electron content, and electron and neutral densities. We include results from different ground- and satellite-based observations, covering different longitudes and years. We also present and discuss the modeling efforts that support most of the observations. Given that SSW can be forecasted with a few days in advance, there is potential for using the connection with the ionosphere for forecasting the occurrence and evolution of electrodynamic perturbations at low latitudes, and sometimes also mid latitudes, during arctic winter warmings.     

The Effect of Solar UV Irradiance Variations on the Earth's Atmosphere

The response of the lower and middle atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance typical of those observed to take place over the 11-year activity cycle has been investigated. The effects on radiative heating rates of changing total solar irradiance, solar spectral irradiance and two different assumptions concerning stratospheric ozone have been studied with a radiative transfer code. The response in the stratosphere depends on the changes specified in the ozone distribution which is not well known. A general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere up to 0.1 mbar (about 65 km) has been used to study the impacts of these changes on the thermodynamical structure. The results in the troposphere are very similar to those reported by Haigh99 using a quite different GCM. In the middle atmosphere the model is able to reproduce quite well the observed seasonal evolution of temperature and wind anomalies. Calculations of radiative forcing due to solar variation are presented. These show that the thermal infrared component of the forcing, due to warming of the stratosphere, is important but suggest a near balance between the longwave and shortwave effects of the increased ozone so that ozone change may not be important for net radiative forcing. However, the structure of the ozone change does affect the detailed temperature response and the spectral composition of the radiation entering the troposphere.     

Recent work correlating the 11-year solar cycle with atmospheric elements grouped according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Atmospheric elements at all levels from the surface to the Middle Atmosphere show a probable association with the 11-year solar cycle in northern winter, which can be observed only if the data are grouped according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. As the correlations are often of opposite sign in the East and West phase of the QBO, the correlation coefficients are mostly small when one uses as full time series of an atmospheric element. The spatial patterns of the correlations resemble well-known teleconnection patterns. The sparse data and short series on the Southern Hemisphere permit only a limited investigation. Good relationships are found in the antarctic stratosphere in spring and at sea level in winter.Statistical tests suggest that our results did not occur by chance, but since we cannot examine data from before 1952 because we do not know the phase of the QBO before then, and since there is no physical explanation for the large correlation coefficients, we cannot yet exclude the possibility that the results are due to sample variation.Affiliate Scientist at NCAR.Visiting Scientist, Freie Universität Berlin.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Amplification of the influence of solar flux variations on the winter stratosphere by planetary waves

Recent observational evidence has suggested that variations in solar activity may affect winter stratospheric polar ozone and temperature levels. The paucity of direct sunlight available during this season points strongly to a dynamical mechanism. We have carried out several large ensemble experiments within the middle atmosphere and the coupled middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere to simulate the radiative/dynamical coupling via planetary waves for a range of solar fluxes. In the former case, the model response in the winter stratosphere was linear and of the order of the summer stratopause forcing, whilst in the latter, the level of correlation in the winter stratosphere remained high, but was diluted over a wider volume. The inclusion of the upper atmosphere enhanced the winter polar stratospheric response by a factor of three.     

Wave motions in the atmosphere and related ionospheric phenomena

We review important studies in the field of stratosphere-ionosphere coupling, including recent studies of wave motions of planetary waves, atmospheric tides and internal gravity waves in the atmosphere. The interrelation between stratospheric sudden warmings and winter anomaly of radio absorption, a dynamical model of stratospheric sudden warmings and some production mechanisms of intensified electron density in the D region are discussed. Other topics presented are atmospheric tides in the lower thermosphere including dynamo action, and internal gravity waves, by which we intend to explain travelling ionospheric disturbances in the F ₂ region and sporadic E layer at midlatitude (wave-enhanced sporadic E). Thermospheric winds are also reviewed and wind effects on the F ₂ layer are discussed. For each atmospheric event systematic observations of suitable physical quantities with proper time and spatial intervals are desirable.     

The Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar Cycle Forcing in the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere

This paper studies the response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle. The study is based on numerical simulations with the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), a chemistry climate model that resolves the atmosphere from the Earth’s surface up to about 250 km. Results presented here are obtained in two multi-year time-slice runs for solar maximum and minimum conditions, respectively. The magnitude of the simulated annual and zonal mean stratospheric response in temperature and ozone corresponds well to observations. The dynamical model response is studied for northern hemisphere winter. Here, the zonal mean wind change differs substantially from observations. The statistical significance of the model’s dynamical response is, however, poor for most regions of the atmosphere. Finally, we discuss several issues that render the evaluation of model results with available analyses of observational data of the stratosphere and mesosphere difficult. This includes the possibility that the atmospheric response to solar variability may depend strongly on longitude.     

The Influence of the 11-year Solar Cycle on the Stratosphere Below 30 km: a Review

The NCEP/NCAR re-analyses of the global data as high as 10hPa have made it possible to examine the influence of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the lower stratosphere over the entire globe. Previously, the signal of the solar cycle had been detected in the temperatures and heights of the stratosphere at 30hPa and below on the Northern Hemisphere by means of a data set from the Freie Universität Berlin. The global re-analyses show that the signal exists on the Southern Hemisphere too, and that it is almost a mirror image of that on the Northern Hemisphere. The largest temperature correlations with the solar cycle move from one summer hemisphere to the other, and the largest height correlations move poleward within each hemisphere from winter to summer.The correlations are weakest over the whole globe in the northern winter. If, however, one divides the data into the winters when the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation was easterly or westerly, the arctic correlations become positive and large in the west years, but insignificantly small over the rest of the earth. The correlations in the east years are negative in the Arctic but positive in the subtropics and tropics on both hemispheres.The difference between the east and west years in January-February can be ascribed to the fact that the dominant stratospheric teleconnection and the solar influence work in the same direction in the east years but oppose each other in the west years.NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Signature of the 11-Year Cycle in the Upper Atmosphere

In the last 45 years I have studied the thermal structure of the atmosphere from the thermosphere down to the stratosphere, and found evidence of its variability in relationship with the change of solar irradiation during the 11-year solar cycle. I would review, in the light of recent model results, the measurements which I had made since the 1960s and which, for some of them, did not find any explanation at the time of their publication. The data were obtained by two different techniques, rockets and lidars and correspond to different regions of the atmosphere from the upper thermosphere to the stratosphere. The expectation was until recently that the atmosphere should be warmed by an increase of solar flux in the course of the solar cycle due to the increase of UV flux. It has been shown to be the case in the tropical stratosphere and at all latitudes in the upper thermosphere. But, at high and mid latitudes and at other altitudes, the reverse situation was found to exist and, until recently, this cooling observed in parts of the atmosphere with increasing solar flux had never been simulated by models. In addition to reviewing our own data, the paper will present recent results using other dataset which support our observations. It is only recently that we succeeded with a model able to tune the forcing by planetary waves at the tropopause level and thus reproduce such behaviour.     

Modulation of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere From Solar Minimum to Maximum: a Theoretical Perspective

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere seems to be dominated by four major mechanisms: convection, diffusion, drifts (gradient, curvature and current sheet), and adiabatic energy losses. In this regard the global structure of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), the current sheet (HCS), and that of the heliosphere itself play major roles. Individually, the four mechanisms are well understood, but in combination, the complexity increases significantly especially their evolvement with time - as a function of solar activity. The Ulysses observations contributed significantly during the past solar minimum modulation period to establish the relative importance of these major mechanisms, leading to renewed interest in developing more sophisticated numerical models, and in the underlying physics, e.g., what determines the diffusion tensor. With increased solar activity, the relative contributions of the mentioned mechanisms change, but how they change and what causes these changes over an 11-year solar cycle is not well understood. It can therefore be expected that present and forthcoming observations during solar maximum activity will again produce very important insights into the causes of long-term modulation. In this paper the basic theory of solar modulation is reviewed for galactic cosmic rays. The influence of the Ulysses observations on the development of the basic theory and numerical models are discussed, especially those that have challenged the theory and models. Model-based predictions are shown for what might be encountered during the next solar minimum. Lastly, modulation theory and modelling are discussed for periods of maximum solar activity when a global reorganization of the HMF, and the HCS, occurs. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impact of Solar Activity on Stratospheric Ozone and NO2 Observed by Gomos/Envisat

Energetic proton precipitation occurring during solar events can increase the production of odd nitrogen in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. A very intense solar proton event (SPE) occurred on 28 October 2003. Its impact on the composition of the middle atmosphere was observed in details due to the availability of several space instruments. Here we present GOMOS observations of a strong NO₂increase and a related ozone decrease in the upper stratosphere at north polar latitude. The perturbation of the chemical composition of the stratosphere was observed until the middle of December 2003. A strong NO₂ increase was also observed in the south polar vortex in June-July 2003. It is tentatively attributed to the effect of an SPE with protons of moderate energy occurring on 29 May 2003. If this hypothesis is confirmed, it will imply that the global effect of SPEs on the composition of the stratosphere is underestimated when only strong energy SPEs are considered.     

Cosmic-Ray Modulation in the Heliosphere A Phenomenological Study

The heliospheric cosmic-ray network–Pioneer 10/11, Voyager 1/2, Ulysses and IMP 8 have provided detailed observations of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays over a period of time that now exceeds 25 years and extends to heliocentric distances beyond 65 AU. These data, when compared over consecutive 11 year solar cycles, clearly establishes the existence of a 22-year cosmic ray modulation cycle that is dominated by the 11-year solar activity cycle but is strongly influenced by gradient and curvature drifts in association with the tilt of the heliospheric neutral current sheet as well as the mediation of the enhanced magnetic turbulence above the solar poles. Over successive solar minima these effects manifest themselves in the remarkable differences in the energetic particle time histories, in the magnitude and sign of the radial and latitudinal intensity gradients and in the changes in the energy spectra of anomalous cosmic rays as a function of heliocentric distance.From solar minimum to solar maximum the long term modulation is principally a combination of two solar related phenomena, the cumulative effect of long-lived global merged interaction regions (GMIRs) and gradient and curvature drifts in the interplanetary magnetic field. For the periods when positive ions flow in over the solar poles and out along the heliospheric current sheet, the modulation of ions is dominated by GMIRs. When this flow pattern is reversed it is found that drifts are an important but not dominant factor for cosmic ray modulation with the current sheet related drift effects decreasing with increasing rigidity R, heliolatitude and heliocentric distance. Over a single solar cycle these conclusions are confirmed at 1 AU by comparing the relative modulation of cosmic-ray helium nuclei and electrons.     

The Stratospheric and Mesospheric NOy in the 2002–2004 Polar Winters as measured by MIPAS/ENVISAT

The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on board ENVISAT, provided global (pole-to-pole, the polar night winter regions) measurements of nearly all constituents of the NO_y family (including NO, NO₂, HNO₃ and H₂O₅) from July 2002 to the end of March 2004 from the upper stratosphere up to the middle mesosphere. The inter-annual variability of the NO₂ and HNO₃ abundances in the Arctic and Antarctic winters from September 2002 through March 2004 was enormous with tremendous hemispheric asymmetry and extraordinary values in two winters. The origin of these variations and of the extreme measured values has been analyzed on the basis of the changing atmospheric dynamics (using the CH₄ tracer) and solar activity, including the extraordinary solar protons events of Oct–Nov 2003.     

Observations of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling During Major Solar Eclipses from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Constellation

Sudden tropospheric cooling and induced stratospheric warming were found during the 22 July 2009 total solar eclipse. Can the 22 July 2009 hallmark also be seen in other major solar eclipses? Here we hypothesize that the tropospheric cooling and the stratospheric warming can be predicted to occur during a major solar eclipse event. In this work we use the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3C) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) data to construct eclipse-time temperature profiles before, during, and after the passages of major solar eclipses for the years 2006–2010. We use four times a day of meteorological analysis from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global meteorological analysis to construct non-eclipse effect temperature profiles for the same eclipse passages. The eclipse effects were calculated based on the difference between F3C and ECMWF profiles. A?total of five eclipse cases and thirteen non-eclipse cases were analyzed and compared. We found that eclipses cause direct thermal cooling in the troposphere and indirect dynamic warming in the stratosphere. These results are statistically significant. Our results show ?0.6 to ?1.2°C cooling in the troposphere and 0.4 to 1.3°C warming in the middle to lower stratosphere during the eclipses. This characteristic stratosphere-troposphere coupling in temperature profiles represent a distinctive atmospheric responses to the solar eclipses.     

Voyager 2 Solar Wind Observations in the Outer Heliosphere

We discuss the solar wind parameters measured in the distant heliosphere from the Voyager 2 spacecraft. Periodic variations in the speed of the wind observed at roughly the solar rotation period may correspond to interaction regions between slower and faster streams of wind. Since the interplanetary magnetic field is enhanced in such regions, they are important for the study of modulation of cosmic rays. Unfortunately, direct observation of the enhanced magnetic field from Voyager 2 has been made difficult by spacecraft-associated noise since 1989.     

THE SIGNAL OF THE 11-YEAR SUNSPOT CYCLE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE-LOWER STRATOSPHERE

The paper summarizes work by the authors over the past ten years on an apparent signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the lower stratosphere-upper troposphere. The signal appears as a basic, consistent pattern in correlations between heights of stratospheric constant-pressure levels, at least as high as 25 km, and the solar cycle in which the highest correlations are in the subtropics.The variation of the stratospheric heights in phase with the sunspot cycle are – in the areas of high correlations between the two – associated with temperature variations on the same time scale in the middle and upper troposphere. The spatial distribution of the correlations suggests that the year-to-year changes in tropical and subtropical vertical motions contain a component on the time scale of the solar cycle.In January and February the correlations with the sunspot cycle are smallest. The smallness of the correlations is owing to the fact that they are different in the east and west years of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratospheric winds. The correlation pattern in the east years is the same as in the other seasons and is statistically significant. In the west years the correlations are insignificant outside the arctic, and the positive correlation in the arctic in these years is related to the fact that major midwinter breakdowns of the cyclonic vortex in the west years so far have happened only at maxima in the solar cycle.Until recently reliable continuous series of analyses of the stratosphere were not available for the southern hemisphere. The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have now, however, issued a 23-year series of re-analyzed global data which has made it possible to detect the solar signal on the southern hemisphere. It turns out to be almost the same as that on the northern hemisphere.The correlations between total column ozone and the sunspot cycle are lowest in the equatorial regions, where ozone is produced, and in the subpolar regions, where the largest amounts are found. In the annual mean the largest correlations lie between 5° lat. and 30° lat. We suggest that this distribution of correlations is due to the fact that the subtropical heights of the constant-pressure surfaces in the ozone layer are higher in maximum than in minimum years of the sunspot cycle, and that the higher subtropical heights in the solar maxima depress the poleward transport of ozone through the subtropics and thus create an abundance of ozone.     

Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25–45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth’s surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possible.