太阳风对流效应对CME渡越时间的影响

基于Gopalswamy预报日冕物质抛射（CME）渡越时间的经验模型,选取1996-2007年间52个与地磁效应Dst<-50nT相关的CME事件以及10个引起特大磁暴（Dst<-200nT）的CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风观测资料,分析背景太阳风对流效应对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报的影响.对于52个CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由16.5h降为11.4h,修正后的误差分布趋向于高斯分布,并且68%事件的预报误差小于15h.对于10个引起特大磁暴的CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由10.6h降低到6.5h,其中6个事件的预报误差小于5h.研究结果表明,对于CME事件,考虑背景太阳风对流效应的影响可以降低预报CME渡越时间的标准偏差,说明太阳风对流效应对预报CME事件渡越时间具有重要作用.      

CME地磁扰动事件的模糊预报方法

以1997-2003年期间的73个日冕物质抛射(CME)激波扰动事件和模糊数学为基础,提出了一种预报地磁扰动的方法.该方法以CME事件爆发的日面经纬度、相关地磁扰动事件的渡越时间、地磁扰动指数、IPS观测的太阳风速度跃变量为基础,建立了预报CME地磁扰动事件的μθ,μφ,μT,μM,μ△v从属函数,考虑了CME初始速度对激波到达时间的影响.以这5个从属函数为基础并利用模糊数学对1996-2004年期间73个经行星际闪烁(IPS)观测认证的CME激波引起的地磁扰动事件进行了预报实验.实验结果表明,磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,△Tpre/Tobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的91.78%,而△Tpre/Tobs＞30%的事件占总事件数的12.33%;磁扰幅度(∑Kp)大小的预报,其相对误差△∑Kp/∑Kpobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的60.27%,相对误差≥50%的事件占总事件数的12.33%.这表明该预报方法对空间灾害性事件地磁扰动的定量预报具有很大应用潜力.      

行星际激波传播至1AU的渡越时间预测

考虑了激波爆发源角宽度、能量、驱动时间、激波速度及其与背景太阳风之间的相互作用,利用流体力学扰动方程建立起一个激波扰动传播模型,用于研究激波从太阳传播到地球轨道附近(1 AU处)所需要的时间(渡越时间)问题.为印证扰动传播模型的适用性,利用1979-1989年间的27个激波事件,以及1997年2月到2000年1月间的68个激波事件,对激波到达地球轨道附近的渡越时间进行了预测,并将结果与STOA和ISPM预报模型结果进行了比较.实验表明,该模型在所有95个事件中,渡越时间相对误差小于10%的事件数占总事件数的25.26%;相对误差小于20%的占总事件数的50.53%;相对误差小于30%的占总事件的65.26%.      

太阳高能粒子事件上升时间统计研究

选取1997-2006年共66个较大的缓变型太阳高能粒子(SEP)事件, 分析了不同条件下太阳高能粒子通量廓线上升时间与源区日面经向分布之间的相关关系, 研究了日冕物质抛射(CME)和耀斑在SEP上升阶段的作用特点.统计结果表明,大SEP事件的源区主要分布在太阳西半球, 特别是磁足点东西两侧45°范围内; 在高速太阳风条件下, 低能通道的通量上升时间与日面相对经度有较好的相关性,即离磁足点越远, 上升时间越长,而高能通道相关性则不明显; 全晕状CME产生的SEP事件对应的上升时间与源区位置没有明显的相关性, 而部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件则与二次拟合曲线符合很好.分析表明,在缓变型SEP事件的通量上升阶段, 耀斑加速过程起着重要作用,这在部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件中尤为显著.      

基于ACE飞船观测的银河宇宙线与太阳风变化的统计研究

基于ACE飞船的资料，通过时序迭加方法统计分析了最近两个太阳活动极小年时期（2007.0-2009.0和2016.5-2019.0年）的宇宙线计数与太阳风参数的关系.结果表明，宇宙线的计数受太阳风共转流相互作用区的强烈影响，宇宙线计数变化与快慢太阳风流界面的位置密切相关，例如流界面的穿越通常伴随着宇宙线计数的下降.分析表明，第一时段的具有“雪犁”效应的宇宙线计数下降对应于流界面附近的扩散系数急剧下降，而第二时段的非“雪犁”效应的计数下降可能是由穿越流界面后的扩散系数增大引起的.日球层电流片也与宇宙线计数变化存在一定的相关性，宇宙线粒子在日球层电流片附近存在一定程度的堆积.太阳风对宇宙线的作用机制表明，宇宙线的漂移和扩散效应决定了其在1AU附近的分布变化.      

两冕流间CME事件数值模拟的改进

通过偶极子场和六极子场适当叠加，改进猜解磁场，使猜解磁场在太阳南北极符号相反，然后采用理想磁流体力学方程组(MHD)，由猜解磁场与太阳风流动相互作用计算出稳态自洽解，得到定性上与观测比较接近的具有两个冕流的背景结构．在两个冕流间采用具有同心圆磁场位形的触发模型触发CME事件，研究CME的日冕传播特征．模拟结果表明，CME被约束在两冕流间传播，CME闭磁场位形和磁云横截面磁场位形相似，可以解释1AU处观测磁云的部分特征；在CME附近，存在压力和Lorentz力起主要作用的区域，这可以为分析1AU处CME事件的观测数据提供帮助．     

行星际磁云与日球电流片相互作用的实例分析

基于1995-2007年Wind飞船观测到的105个磁云事件, 按照磁云在地球附近是否与日球电流片发生碰撞, 将其分为碰撞和未碰撞两类, 得到初步分析结果. ①可能与日球电流片发生碰撞的磁云事件有51例, 约占事件总数的49%; ②发生碰撞时, 磁云与日球电流片之间的相互作用区内呈现动力学相互作用增强的趋势, 例如多呈现局部的磁场方向间断结构(或称局域电流片结构), 伴随磁场强度下降、质子温度升高、部分质子速度分量出现跃变, Langmuir波或100~250,kHz的离子声波出现增强,这些现象可能与碰撞相互作用区域内发生的磁重联有关; 没有碰撞时这些特征一般不明显; ③至少有15个事例中, 磁云前后背景磁场的极性相反, 或磁场极性反转的位置位于磁云内部, 显示磁云可能正在跨越电流片运动; ④在几个磁云事件中发现磁云的亮环和亮核纤维结构. 这些极为初步的分析结果有利于了解磁云与日球电流片之间的相互作用过程.      

IMF北向时太阳风粒子向磁层输运的试验粒子模拟研究

以ACE卫星实时观测数据驱动的全球磁流体模拟为背景场,选取2003年10月22－24日行星际磁场（IMF）持续北向的事件,使用试验粒子方法,对太阳风粒子向磁层输运的过程进行模拟研究,分析北向IMF下太阳风粒子注入磁层过程中粒子在磁层内的空间分布和时间演化特征。IMF北向期间,进入环电流区域的粒子在晨侧区域的密度大于昏侧,且晨侧的粒子分布范围更广。背阳面磁鞘中的太阳风粒子可以通过低纬边界层进入磁层,但很难通过南北侧磁层顶进入磁层。进入磁尾的太阳风粒子聚集形成冷而密的等离子体片（CDPS）,模拟中CDPS的空间分布和密度大小与观测数据符合。在IMF长时间北向期间,磁尾的粒子数量呈现随时间增长的趋势,并存在约20 min的小幅度准周期变化和约5~6 h的较大幅度的准周期变化。      

冷而密的等离子体片及其对磁尾等离子体片分布特性的影响

地球磁尾等离子体片在太阳风-磁层耦合过程中起着重要的作用，其中冷而密的等离子体片是地磁活动平静期太阳风等离子体进入磁层的重要区域.以往的研究通常没有利用局地探测数据针对冷而密的等离子体片发生率在地心太阳磁层坐标系（GSM）中xy平面分布的统计分析.本文利用GEOTAIL卫星1996-2016年的局地测量数据，给出了等离子体片密度、温度及冷而密的等离子体片发生率的二维分布.与温度具有晨昏对称分布不同，等离子体片数密度呈现明显的晨昏不对称性，并且冷而密的等离子体片发生率在晨侧较高.      

高速太阳风条件下日侧磁层顶磁通量传输事件的全球磁流体力学模拟结果

利用全球磁流体力学模拟,研究了高速太阳风条件下日侧磁层顶的磁通量传输事件（FTE）发生率的空间分布.从模拟结果中得到了FTE信号,并且这些FTE信号的特征与观测结果基本一致.磁层顶上的10个取样点共观测到39个FTE信号.统计分析表明,越靠近翼侧则观测到的FTE信号越少.这一现象可能是磁鞘中太阳风速度分布差异导致的.      

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.     

Propagation of normal and faster CMEs in the interplanetary medium

We have analyzed 101 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events and their associated interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005 from the list given by Mujiber Rahman et al. (2012). The aim of the present work is to correlate the interplanetary parameters such as, the speeds of IP shocks and ICMEs, CME transit time and their relation with CME parameters near the Sun. Mainly, a group of 10 faster CME events (V_INT > 2200 km/s) are compared with a list of 91 normal events of Manoharan et al. (2004). From the distribution diagrams of CME, ICME and IP shock speeds, we note that a large number of events tends to narrow towards the ambient (i.e., background) solar wind speed (∼500 km/s) in agreement with the literature. Also, we found that the IP shock speed and the average ICME speed measured at 1 AU are well correlated. In addition, the IP shock speed is found to be slightly higher than the ICME speed. While the normal events show CME travel time in the range of ∼40–80 h with a mean value of 65 h, the faster events have lower transit time with a mean value of 40 h. The effect of solar wind drag is studied using the correlation of CME acceleration with interplanetary (IP) acceleration and with other parameters of ICMEs. While the mean acceleration values of normal and faster CMEs in the LASCO FOV are 1 m/s², 18 m/s², they are −1.5 m/s² and −14 m/s² in the interplanetary medium, respectively. The relation between CME speed and IP acceleration for normal and faster events are found to agree with that of  and  except slight deviations for the faster events. It is also seen that the faster events with less travel time face higher negative acceleration (>−10 m/s²) in the interplanetary medium up to 1 AU.     

子午面内Alfvén波的传播特征

本文使用由ＷＫＢ近似得到的Ａｌｆｖｅｎ波传播的张量表达式,具体计算和讨论了一种太阳子午面内含盔形－电流片磁位形的流场中Ａｌｆｖｅｎ波的传播特征,主要结果是：（１）Ａｌｆｖｅｎ波磁场起伏随日心距离的增加而衰减,其中极开区的衰减远快于赤道区,但随着距离的增大,这种纬度关系将迅速变弱,以致在较远空间,磁起伏相差很小,衰减很慢;（２）Ａｌｆｖｅｎ波的相对磁场起伏ｂ／Ｂ随着距离的增加而迅速增大,在几个太阳半径之后变化不再明显,达到所谓的＂饱和＂;在大日心距离的盔形电流片附近,Ａｌｆｖｅｎ波将成为重要的磁场组成部分;（３）Ａｌｆｖｅｎ波速度起伏纬度关系较为明显,相对速度起伏。ｕ／Ｕ随着距离增大而衰减,电流片区衰减得较快,但这种纬度差别将变弱．与黄道面内Ａｌｆｖｅｎ波传播特征的具体比较表明,磁场涨落的变化特征与背景场位形存在着十分密切的关系,但速度涨落与背景场没有这种明显关系．     

Ionospheric storm due to solar Coronal mass ejection in September 2017 over the Brazilian and African longitudes

Coronal mass ejection (CME) occurs when there is an abrupt release of a large amount of solar plasma, and this cloud of plasma released by the Sun has an intrinsic magnetic field. In addition, CMEs often follow solar flares (SF). The CME cloud travels outward from the Sun to the interplanetary medium and eventually hits the Earth’s system. One of the most significant aspects of space weather is the ionospheric response due to SF or CME. The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind speed, and the number of particles are relevant parameters of the CME when it hits the Earth’s system. A geomagnetic storm is most geo-efficient when the plasma cloud has an interplanetary magnetic field southward and it is accompanied by an increase in the solar wind speed and particle number density. We investigated the ionospheric response (F-region) in the Brazilian and African sectors during a geomagnetic storm event on September 07–10, 2017, using magnetometer and GPS-TEC networks data. Positive ionospheric disturbances are observed in the VTEC during the disturbed period (September 07–08, 2017) over the Brazilian and African sectors. Also, two latitudinal chains of GPS-TEC stations from the equatorial region to low latitudes in the East and West Brazilian sectors and another chain in the East African sector are used to investigate the storm time behavior of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). We noted that the EIA was disturbed in the American and African sectors during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Also, the Brazilian sector was more disturbed than the African sector.     

Coronal mass ejection interaction and particle acceleration during the 2001 April 14–15 events

Two successive solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with fast and wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on 2001 April 14 and 15 are compared. The weak SEP event of April 14 associated with an 830 km/s CME and an M1.0 flare was the largest impulsive event of cycle 23. The April 15 event, the largest ground level event of cycle 23, was three orders of magnitude more intense than the April 14^th event and was associated with a faster CME (1200 km/s) and an X14.4 flare. We compiled and compared all the activities (flares, CMEs, interplanetary conditions and radio bursts) associated with the two SEP events to understand the intensity difference between them. Different coronal and interplanetary environments of the two events (presence of preceding CME and seed particles ahead of the April 15 event) may explain the intensity difference.     

The onset of sunspot cycle 24 and galactic cosmic ray modulation

The annual mean sunspot number (SSN) has a minimum value in 2008, while the monthly mean SSN has a value of zero in August 2009. The galactic cosmic ray modulation for cycle 24 began at earth orbit in January 2010. We study the onset characteristics of the new modulation cycle using data from the global network of neutron monitors. They respond to time variations in different segments of the galactic cosmic ray rigidity spectrum. The corresponding temporal variations in the interplanetary magnetic field intensity (B) and solar wind velocity (V) as well as the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet are also studied. There is a lag of 3 months between a large, sharp increase of the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet and the onset of modulation. Some neutron monitors are undergoing long-term drifts of unknown origin.     

Energetic particle acceleration by coronal mass ejections

The current paradigm for the source of large, gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events is that theyare accelerated in coronal/interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Early studies established that there is a rough correlation between the logs of the CME speed and the logs of the SEP intensities. Here I review two topics challenging the basic paradigm, the recent discovery that CMEs are also associated with impulsive, high-Z rich SEP events and the search for gradual SEP sources other than CME-driven shocks. I then discuss three topics of recent interest dealing with the relationship between the shock or CME properties and the resulting SEP events. These are the roles that CME accelerations, interactions between fast and preceding slow CMEs, and widths of fast CMEs may play in SEP production.     

X级质子耀斑的特征研究

为了更加准确地判断X级耀斑是否引发质子事件,对X级质子耀斑和非质子耀斑的耀斑积分通量、源区、CME速度、CME角宽度、背景太阳风速度及背景X射线通量的分布进行了统计研究.发现非质子耀斑和质子耀斑的积分通量、经度、CME速度和CME角宽度具有明显不同的分布.非质子耀斑大多集中在东部,耀斑积分通量小于0.3J·m-2,CME速度小于1300km·s-1的区域内;质子耀斑大多集中在中部或西部,耀斑积分通量大于0.3J·m-2,CME速度大于1300km·s-1的区域内.质子耀斑伴随的CME角宽度主要集中在360°,非质子耀斑的CME角宽度分布则相对分散.两类耀斑的背景太阳风速度和背景X射线通量分布差别不大.利用两类耀斑各个参量分布上的差异,有望提高X级耀斑预报的准确率.      

North-south asymmetries of the solar magnetic field in conjunction with the location of the heliospheric current sheet on both sides of the solar equator

Reported heliospheric current-sheet displacements from the equatorial plane have been found to be in agreement with north-south asymmetries of the solar magnetic field. Mean heliospheric sector width estimations in the period 1947–1977 have shown that the heliospheric current sheet demonstrates an asymmetric placement with respect to the solar equator. This asymmetry is very prominent in the epochs of the solar cycle minima while it almost disappears in the epochs of maxima. At the same time, the sums of the maxima values of the sunspot magnetic field intensity showed in the epochs of minimum a characteristic asymmetry which implies an essential conjunction among the heliospheric current sheet, the solar cycle and the solar magnetic field. The main conclusion which could be derived of these observations is that the heliospheric current sheet has its origin on the solar surface while its location with respect to the solar equator appears to be affected by the variability of the lower layers of the solar interior.