Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

基于SAMPEX卫星观测的南大西洋异常区高能质子动态分布特征

利用SAMPEX卫星1992年7月至2004年6月19～27MeV高能质子数据对南大西洋异常区的分布特征进行研究, 发现南大西洋异常区高能质子分布随高度及F_10.7的变化十分显著. 在540±25km高度上, 地磁较为平静时期南大西洋异常区高能质子微分通量随着F_10.7的增大而减小, 同时在F_10.7≥115sfu时减小趋势较为平缓. 对中等及以上磁暴进行统计分析发现, 磁暴期间南大西洋异常区高能质子微分通量和SYM-H指数的绝对值存在明显的反相关关系, 且地磁暴对南大西洋异常区高能质子微分通量存在明显的持续影响效应. 磁暴发生期间高能质子微分通量明显减少. 磁暴恢复相及其之后高能质子微分通量呈现较为显著的恢复过程.      

A Prediction Method for△f0F2min of a Single Station From Interplanetary Parameters Based on Statistical Study

Using 86 CME-interplanetary shock events,the correlation between the peak values of （a） the solar wind parameters(B_z,E_y,P_dyn) and the geomagnetic indices（SYM-H,ASY-H,Kp）, （b） the coupling functions（Borovsky,Akasofu,Newell） and the geomagnetic indices,（c） the solar wind parameters/coupling functions/geomagnetic indices and the ionospheric parameter(Δf₀F_2min), are investigated.The statistical results show that in group（a）,B_{z min} and SYM-H_min have the best correlation,that in group（b）,the best correlation is between the peak values of Akasofu function (A_min) and SYM-H_min,and that in group（c）,the best correlation is between K_pmax andΔf₀F_2min. Based on the statistical results,a method for predicting f₀F₂ of a single station is attempted to be set up.The input is modified B_{z min} and the outputs are SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.Then 25 CME-IPS events that caused geomagnetic storms in 1998 and 2009 are used to check the prediction method. The results show that our method can be used to predict SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.     

辐射带高能电子通量波动与地磁暴警报

地球磁场捕获带电粒子形成辐射带,地磁场的扰动将导致带电粒子通量的变化.根据磁暴期间外辐射带高能电子通量起伏和波动的特点及规律,利用GOES卫星实时发布的5min分辨率高能电子微分通量数据,构建了高能电子通量波动指数,并分析了该指数与地磁活动的关系.结果表明,所提出的高能电子通量波动指数与地磁事件有很好的相关性,能起到地磁暴发生的指示剂作用,相对于目前空间环境业务化预报过程中广泛使用的3hKp指数,高能电子通量波动指数能更早地警报地磁暴的发生,是潜在有效的地磁暴警报辅助手段,能为空间环境预报中的地磁暴实时警报提供重要参考.      

Magnetic Field Fluctuations in the Solar Wind, Foreshock and Magnetosheath： Cluster Data Analysis

46 magnetosheath crossing events from the two years (2001.2-2003.1) of Cluster magnetic field measurements are identified and used to investigate the characters of the magnetic field fluctuations in the regions of undisturbed solar wind, foreshock, magnetosheath. The preliminary results indicate the properties of the plasma turbulence in the magnetosheath are strongly controlled by IMF orientation with respect to the bow shock normal. The amplitude of the magnetic field magnitude and direction variations behind quasi-parallel bow shock are larger than those behind quasi-perpendicular bow shock. Almost purely compressional waves are found in quasi-perpendicular magnetosheath.     

Formation and characteristics of low latitude boundary layer

Characteristics of low latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of the Earth’s magnetosphere are investigated using data of Interball/Tail probe observations. The role of different processes of LLBL formation is discussed. The high level of magnetosheath turbulence is taken into account. It is shown that the turbulent nature of magnetic field and plasma fluctuations in the magnetosheath is one of the main factors determining the structure of LLBL. The results of Interball/Tail probe observations of the event 9 March 1996 are analyzed. The thickness of LLBL is determined for the number of cases. The change of LLBL thickness under the influence of the changes of solar wind parameters is investigated. It is shown that variability of solar wind conditions can be the important factor controlling LLBL thickness. Results of observations are compared with the theory which explains the value of LLBL thickness as the result of plasma transport inside the magnetosphere. It is shown that the theory gives the qualitative explanation of the observed dependence of LLBL thickness on solar wind parameters.     

A new approach to solar wind monitoring

The monitoring of solar wind parameters is a key problem of the space weather program. We are presenting a new solution of plasma parameter determination suitable for small and fast solar wind monitors. The first version will be launched during the SPECTR-R project into a highly elongated orbit with apogee ∼350,000 km. The method is based on simultaneous measurements of the total ion flux and ion integral energy spectrum by six identical Faraday cups. Three of them are dedicated to determination of the ion flow direction, the other three (equipped with control grids supplied by a retarding potential) are used for determination of the density, temperature, and speed of the plasma flow. The version under development is primarily designed for the measurements in the solar wind and tail magnetosheath, thus for velocities range from 270 to 750 km/s, temperatures from 1 to 30 eV, and densities up to 200 cm⁻³. However, the instrument design can be simply modified for measurements in other regions with a substantial portion of low-energy plasma as a subsolar magnetosheath, cusp or low-latitude boundary layer. Testing of the engineering model shows that the proposed method can provide reliable plasma parameters with a high time resolution (up to 8 Hz). The paper presents not only the method and its technical realization but it documents all advantages and peculiarities of the suggested approach.     

磁层氧离子向磁鞘泄漏的机制和效应

１９９７年 １月 １０日磁暴期间， Ｇｅｏｔａｉｌ卫星在向阳侧的磁鞘中观测到了磁层氧离子突增事件．这些氧离子的出现和磁鞘中存在很强的南向行星际磁场有关．事件期间向阳面发生了准静态的磁重联，氧离子流存在由北向南的速度分量．通量突增过程具有逆向和正向能量色散现象，磁层内部只有氧离子有可能被梯度漂移输送到重联区，所以只有氧离子在磁鞘中持续地被观测到．估计氧离子的逃逸速率为 ０．６１× １０２３／ｓ，大约为环电流氧离子输入率的 ３３％．大量的环电流氧离子由磁层跑到了磁鞘，导致环电流指数 ＡＳＹ－Ｈ呈现明显的非对称性．     

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

MMS星座对磁层顶磁通量绳内离子惯性尺度结构的观测

利用MMS观测数据,对磁层顶通量绳内离子惯性尺度（d_i）的结构进行分析研究.结果发现,许多不同尺度（约1d_i至数十d_i）的通量绳内都存在具有d_i尺度的电流 j _m,其方向在磁层顶局地坐标系的-M方向,即与磁层顶查普曼-费拉罗电流同向,由电子在+M方向的运动（ v _em）携带.这些电流结构具有以下特征:磁鞘与磁层成分混合,磁场为开放形态;离子去磁化,电子与磁场冻结;N方向（即垂直于磁层顶电流片方向）的电场 E _n显著增大,幅度达到约20mV·m-1,并伴有明显的尖峰状起伏,该增强和尖峰状起伏的电场对应于霍尔电场.分析表明,电流、电子与离子运动的偏离以及霍尔电场之间遵从广义欧姆定律,三者密切关联.进一步对磁层顶磁重联的探测数据进行分析发现,在很多重联区内也存在与通量绳内相似的结构,其尺度约为d_i量级,其中霍尔电场 E _N、电流 j _M和电子速度 v _eM均与通量绳内对应物理量的方向相同且幅度相近.基于上述观测事实,采用经典FTE通量绳模型,对通量绳内电流、电子运动和霍尔电场的起源进行了初步探讨,认为其来源于磁层顶无碰撞磁重联区内的相应结构,并且后者在离子尺度通量绳的形成过程中起到重要作用.      

Solar wind low-energy energetic ion enhancements: A tool to forecast large geomagnetic storms

Predicting the occurrence of large geomagnetic storms more than an hour in advance is an important, yet difficult task. Energetic ion data show enhancements in flux that herald the approach of interplanetary shocks, usually for many hours before the shock arrival. We present a technique for predicting large geomagnetic storms (Kp  7) following the arrival of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU, using low-energy energetic ions (47–65 keV) and solar wind data measured at the L1 libration point. It is based on a study of the relationship between energetic ion enhancements (EIEs) and large geomagnetic storms by Smith et al. [Smith, Z., Murtagh, W., Smithtro, C. Relationship between solar wind low-energy energetic ion enhancements and large geomagnetic storms. J. Geophys. Res. 109, A01110, 2004. doi:10.1029/ 2003JA010044] using data in the rise and maximum of solar cycle 23 (February 1998–December 2000). An excellent correlation was found between storms with Kp  7 and the peak flux of large energetic ion enhancements that almost always (93% of time in our time period) accompany the arrival of interplanetary shocks at L1. However, as there are many more large EIEs than large geomagnetic storms, other characteristics were investigated to help determine which EIEs are likely to be followed by large storms. An additional parameter, the magnitude of the post-shock total magnetic field at the L1 Lagrangian point, is introduced here. This improves the identification of the EIEs that are likely to be followed by large storms. A forecasting technique is developed and tested on the time period of the original study (the training data set). The lead times, defined as the times from the arrival of the shock to the start of the 3-h interval of maximum Kp, are also presented. They range from minutes to more than a day; the average for large storms is 7 h. These times do not include the extra warning time given when the EI flux cross the high thresholds ahead of the shock. Because the data-stream used in the original study is no longer available, we extended the original study (1998–2000) to 2001, in order to: (a) investigate EIEs in 2001; (b) present a validation of the technique on an independent data set; (c) compare the results based on the original (P1) energy channel to those of the replacement (P1′) and (d), determine new EIE thresholds for forecasting geomagnetic storms using P1′ data. The verification of this P1′ training data set is also presented, together with lead times.     

Geomagnetic storm effects on the occurrences of ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region

The study investigated the effects of intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 on the occurrences of large scale ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region. Four major/intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 were analyzed for this study. These storms occurred on 17th March 2015 (?229?nT), 22nd June 2015 (?204?nT), 7th October 2015 (?124?nT), and 20th December 2015 (?170?nT). Total Electron Content (TEC) data obtained from five African Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) stations, grouped into eastern and western sectors were used to derive the ionospheric irregularities proxy indices, e.g., rate of change of TEC (ROT), ROT index (ROTI) and ROTI daily average (ROTI_AVE). These indices were characterized alongside with the disturbance storm time (Dst), the Y component of the Interplanetary Electric Field (IEFy), polar cap (PC) index and the H component of the Earth’s magnetic field from ground-based magnetometers. Irregularities manifested in the form of fluctuations in TEC. Prompt penetration of electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF) modulated the behaviour of irregularities during the main and recovery phases of the geomagnetic storms. The effect of electric field over both sectors depends on the local time of southward turning of IMF Bz. Consequently, westward electric field inhibited irregularities during the main phase of March and October 2015 geomagnetic storms, while for the June 2015 storm, eastward electric field triggered weak irregularities over the eastern sector. The effect of electric field on irregularities during December 2015 storm was insignificant. During the recovery phase of the storms, westward DDEF suppressed irregularities.     

Effect of geomagnetic disturbances on physiological parameters: An investigation on aviators

Over the last years the potential effect that the geomagnetic activity may have on human physiological parameters (such as heart rate, arterial diastolic and systolic pressure) is being widely investigated with irrefutable results. As it is suggested, human health can be affected by solar activity and related geophysical changes. In this study a group of 4018 Slovak aviators was examined from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2002, covering periods with high solar and geomagnetic activity. Specifically, medical data of mean values of arterial diastolic and systolic blood pressure, which were registered during the medical examinations of the Slovak aviators, were related to daily variations of Dst and Ap geomagnetic indices. All subjects were men (from 18 to 60 years old) in good health. Statistical significance levels (p-values) of the effect of geomagnetic activity on the aforementioned parameters up to three days before and three days after the geomagnetic event were established using the statistical method ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA). Statistical analysis of the arterial blood pressure variations for different levels of geomagnetic activity revealed that geomagnetic changes are connected to variations of the human physiological parameters.     

Spatial distribution of the magnetosheath ion flux

The magnetosheath plays a crucial role in solar wind-magnetosphere interaction because it is the magnetosheath magnetic field and plasma that interact with the magnetopause and magnetosphere, not the unshocked solar wind. We are presenting ion flux measurement statistics at both the dawn and dusk flanks of the magnetosheath and their comparison with a gasdynamic magnetosheath model. The study is based on three years of INTERBALL-1 measurements supported by simultaneous WIND solar wind and magnetic field observations. Statistical processing has shown (1) the limitations of the gasdynamic model, (2) the conditions favorable for the creation of a plasma depletion layer adjacent to the flank magnetopause, (3) strong dawn-dusk asymmetry of the ion fluxes, and (4) an evidence for the presence of a slow mode front adjacent to the magnetopause.     

Furthering our understanding of electrostatic solitary waves through Cluster multispacecraft observations and theory

Nonlinear isolated electrostatic solitary waves (ESWs) are observed routinely at many of Earth’s major boundaries by the Wideband Data (WBD) plasma wave receivers that are mounted on the four Cluster satellites. The current study discusses two aspects of ESWs: their characteristics in the magnetosheath, and their propagation in the magnetosheath and in the auroral acceleration (upward current) region. The characteristics (amplitude and time duration) of ESWs detected in the magnetosheath are presented for one case in which special mutual impedance tests were conducted allowing for the determination of the density and temperature of the hot and cold electrons. These electron parameters, together with those from the ion experiment, were used as inputs to an electron acoustic soliton model as a consideration for the generation of the observed ESWs. The results from this model showed that negative potential ESWs of a few Debye lengths (10–50 m) could be generated in this plasma. Other models of ESW generation are discussed, including beam instabilities and spontaneous generation out of turbulence. The results of two types of ESW propagation (in situ and remote sensing) studies are also presented. The first involves the propagation of bipolar type ESWs from one Cluster spacecraft to another in the magnetosheath, thus obtaining the velocity and size of the solitary structures. The structures were found to be very flat, with large scale perpendicular to the magnetic field (>40 km) and small scale parallel to the field (<1 km). These results were then discussed in terms of various models which predict such flat structures to be generated. The second type of propagation study uses striated Auroral Kilometric Radiation (SAKR) bursts, observed on multiple Cluster satellites, as tracers of ion solitary waves in the upward current region. The results of all studies discussed here (pulse characteristics and ESW velocity, lifetime, and size) are compared to in situ measurements previously made on one spacecraft and to theoretical predictions for these quantities, where available. The primary conclusion drawn from the propagation studies is that the multiple spacecraft technique allows us to better assess the stability (lifetime) of ESWs, which can be as large as a few seconds, than can be achieved with single satellites.     

强磁暴、能量粒子暴与热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系

利用1997-2007年由GOES8, GOES11和GOES12星载高能粒子探测器在地球同步轨道高度上所探测到的高能质子和高能电子通量探测数据以及高度560km左右星载大气密度探测器所得的热层大气密度探测数据, 统计分析了强地磁扰动、高能粒子通量跃变和热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系, 初步获得强地磁扰动期间, 地球同步轨道(外辐射带外环)均出现了增幅大于三个数量级的高能质子通量(尤其是E>1MeV)强增强现象, 随后热 层大气密度强烈上涨, 表明三者之间是正相关关系. 在时间上地球同步轨道高能质子通量强增强现象先于日均Ap值(地磁活动程度)上涨约一天左右, 而热层大气密度强涨落现象又明显滞后于强地磁扰动事件.      

Long-term changes in indices of geomagnetic activity at the auroral station Sodankylä

Here we compare the traditional analog measure of geomagnetic activity, Ak, with the more recent digital indices of IHV and Ah based on hourly mean data, and their derivatives at the auroral station Sodankylä. By this selection of indices we study the effects of (i) analog vs. digital technique, and (ii) full local-time vs. local night-time coverage on quantifying local geomagnetic activity. We find that all other indices are stronger than Ak during the low-activity cycles 15–16 suggesting an excess of very low scalings in Ak at this time. The full-day indices consistently depict stronger correlation with the interplanetary magnetic field strength, while the night-time indices have higher correlation with solar wind speed. The Ak index correlates better with the digital indices of full-day coverage than with any night-time index. However, Ak depicts somewhat higher activity levels than the digital full-day indices in the declining phase of the solar cycle, indicating that, due to their different sampling rates, the latter indices are less sensitive to high-frequency variations driven by the Alfvén waves in high-speed streams. On the other hand, the night-time indices have an even stronger response to solar wind speed than Ak. The results strongly indicate that at auroral latitudes, geomagnetic indices with different local time coverage reflect different current systems, which, by an appropriate choice of indices, allows studying the century-scale dynamics of these currents separately.     

Contribution of geometry of interaction between interplanetary and terrestrial magnetic fields into global magnetospheric state and geomagnetic activity

The paper presents results of our study of dependence of geomagnetic activity from geoeffective parameters taking into account mutual orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field, electric field of the solar wind and geomagnetic moment. We attract a reconnection model elaborated by us made allowance for changes of geometry of the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction during annual and diurnal motions of the Earth. We take as our data base the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind velocity measured at 1 a.u. at ecliptic plane for the period of 1963–2005 and K_p, D_st, a_m indices. Taken as a whole a geoeffective parameter suggested by us explains 95% of observed variations of the indices. Changes of the geometric factor determined by mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment explain larger than 75% of observed statistical variations of D_st and a_m indices. Based on our results we suggest a new explanation of semi-annual and UT variation of geomagnetic activity.     

由太阳爆发事件特征预报地磁暴方法研究

CME是非重现性地磁暴的诱因,通过对太阳耀斑爆发活动的特征与可能引起地磁活动的CME进行统计分析,发现太阳耀斑的强度、位置、持续时间以及耀斑所伴随的太阳质子事件和行星际高能质子通量的增长与CME的特征及可能产生的地磁扰动有着密切的关系.在对数据分析的基础上,建立了基于人工神经网络的预报模式,对太阳耀斑爆发活动所引起的地磁扰动的发生及Ap指数进行了预报,取得了较好的结果.