针对空间碎片捕获的绕飞轨道设计

地球轨道上日益增长的碎片云已引起各个航天国家的担忧,地球轨道上可编目的空间物体数量30多年内增长了2倍多,若不实施主动清除,碎片的数量将在未来200年内快速增长,给空间系统的安全带来极大的威胁。自然椭圆绕飞轨道可在目标附近长时间绕飞,可保证碎片捕获系统具有长时间的观测、捕获时间。文章提出通过设计绕飞轨道来实现捕获碎片的方案,介绍并分别推导了基于C-W方程和轨道根数两种方式绕飞轨道设计的方法。针对假想的捕获目标,基于轨道根数方法设计了5种脉冲变轨的轨道方案,并进行了相应的轨道算例仿真。仿真结果表明:该方案可适用于任意的初始相位差,具备一定的工程实现意义。     

基于相控阵雷达波束篱笆的空间碎片数量与分布估计方法

随着载人航天与空间站等航天活动的增多,不能有效防护、也无法定期跟踪和编目的小尺寸(尤其是1～10 cm)碎片的危害越来越受到关注,这些碎片信息的获取依赖于统计采样技术.针对简化的相控阵雷达波束篱笆空间碎片探测模式,提出了一种采用统计技术估计空间碎片总数量以及高度和倾角分布的方法.将碎片穿越波束篱笆的过程用Poisson分布来建模,根据观测时段内穿越波束篱笆目标的平均到达率及测量的轨道高度和倾角数据来估计给定轨道高度范围或倾角范围内碎片的数量,进而得到碎片的总数量以及碎片数量随轨道高度或倾角的分布.在获取雷达散射截面信息时,该方法还可用于估计碎片数量随尺寸的分布.通过仿真实验验证了该方法的有效性.      

Improved orbit predictions using two-line elements

The density of orbital space debris constitutes an increasing environmental challenge. There are two ways to alleviate the problem: debris mitigation and debris removal. This paper addresses collision avoidance, a key aspect of debris mitigation. We describe a method that contributes to achieving a requisite increase in orbit prediction accuracy for objects in the publicly available two-line element (TLE) catalog. Batch least-squares differential correction is applied to the TLEs. Using a high-precision numerical propagator, we fit an orbit to state vectors derived from successive TLEs. We then propagate the fitted orbit further forward in time. These predictions are validated against precision ephemeris data derived from the international laser ranging service (ILRS) for several satellites, including objects in the congested sun-synchronous orbital region. The method leads to a predicted range error that increases at a typical rate of 100 m per day, approximately a 10-fold improvement over individual TLE’s propagated with their associated analytic propagator (SGP4). Corresponding improvements for debris trajectories could potentially provide conjunction analysis sufficiently accurate for an operationally viable collision avoidance system based on TLEs only.     

Charge exchange interactions on near-Earth proton radiation for orbit perturbation of high area-to-mass ratio objects

This novel concept expels neutral gas in the presence of geomagnetically-trapped protons in near-Earth orbit. The expelled neutral gas acts to induce charge exchange collisions with the geomagnetically-trapped protons and induce drag on objects which pass through it. The charge exchange collisions between the neutral gas and the geomagnetically-trapped protons create neutrals with similar kinetic energy that are not confined by the geomagnetic field. The charge exchange neutrals are able to collide with orbital objects and perturb their orbits. The delta-v applied by the charge exchange neutral flux is greatest on high area-to-mass objects. Numerical simulation shows charge exchange neutral impacts produce a delta-v on objects on the order of 3.8 x 10⁻¹¹ m/s at a distance of 1 km from the center of the expelled gas in a 1,000 km orbit. The impulse imparted by charge exchange neutral impacts is at least six orders of magnitude smaller than that provided by the induced drag caused by gas expulsion. The localized drag increase can force a majority of small objects into the orbit of the expelled gas cloud, even if that orbit is retrograde to the initial orbit of the objects. This new technique can be applied to the remediation of space debris.     

Bayesian linking of geosynchronous orbital debris tracks as seen by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

We describe a Bayesian sampling model for linking and constraining orbit models from angular observations of “streaks” in optical telescope images. Our algorithm is particularly suited to situations where the observation times are small fractions of the orbital periods of the observed objects or when there is significant confusion of objects in the observation field. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of multiple orbit models (up to the number of observed tracks) and parameters describing which tracks are linked with which orbit models. Using this algorithm, we forecast the constraints on geosynchronous (GEO) debris orbits achievable with the planned Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). Because of the short 15 s exposure times, preliminary orbit determinations of GEO objects from LSST will have large and degenerate errors on the orbital elements. Combined with the expected crowded fields of GEO debris it will be challenging to reliably link orbital tracks in LSST observations given the currently planned observing cadence.     

Accurate orbit predictions for debris orbit manoeuvre using ground-based lasers

Orbit manoeuvre of low Earth orbiting (LEO) debris using ground-based lasers has been proposed as a cost-effective means to avoid debris collisions. This requires the orbit of the debris object to be determined and predicted accurately so that the laser beam can be locked on the debris without the loss of valuable laser operation time. This paper presents the method and results of a short-term accurate LEO (<900 km in altitude) debris orbit prediction study using sparse laser ranging data collected by the EOS Space Debris Tracking System (SDTS). A main development is the estimation of the ballistic coefficients of the LEO objects from their archived long-term two line elements (TLE). When an object is laser tracked for two passes over about 24 h, orbit prediction (OP) accuracy of 10–20 arc seconds for the next 24–48 h can be achieved – the accuracy required for laser debris manoeuvre. The improvements in debris OP accuracy are significant in other applications such as debris conjunction analyses and the realisation of daytime debris laser tracking.     

Analysis of laser ranges and angular measurements data fusion for space debris orbit determination

In the framework of space debris, the orbit determination process is a fundamental step, both, for researchers and for satellite operators. The accurate knowledge of the orbit of space debris objects is needed to allow space debris characterization studies and to avoid unnecessary collision avoidance maneuvers.The accuracy of the results of an orbit determination process depends on several factors as the number, the accuracy, the kind of processed measurements, their distribution along the orbit, and the object-observer relative geometry. When the observation coverage of the target orbit is not homogeneous, the accuracy of the orbit determination can be improved processing different kind of observables. Recent studies showed that the satellite laser ranging technique can be successfully applied to space debris.In this paper, we will investigate the benefits of using laser ranges and angular measurements for the orbit determination process. We will analyze the influence of the number of used observations, of the covered arc of orbit, of each observable, and of the observation geometry on the estimated parameters. Finally, using data acquired on short observation arcs, we analyze the achievable accuracies for the orbital regimes with the highest space debris density, and to the consequences of the data fusion on catalog maintenance operations. The results shown are obtained using only real data (both angular and laser measurements) provided by sensors of the Swiss Optical Ground Station and Geodynamics Observatory Zimmerwald owned by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) and for some studies also using ranges provided from other stations of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS).     

The classical Laplace plane as a stable disposal orbit for geostationary satellites

The classical Laplace plane is a frozen orbit, or equilibrium solution for the averaged dynamics arising from Earth oblateness and lunisolar gravitational perturbations. The pole of the orbital plane of uncontrolled GEO satellites regress around the pole of the Laplace plane at nearly constant inclination and rate. In accordance with Friesen et al. (1993), we show how this stable plane can be used as a robust long-term disposal orbit. The current graveyard regions for end-of-life retirement of GEO payloads, which is several hundred kilometers above GEO depending on the spacecraft characteristics, cannot contain the newly discovered high area-to-mass ratio debris population. Such objects are highly susceptible to the effects of solar radiation pressure exhibiting dramatic variations in eccentricity and inclination over short periods of time. The Laplace plane graveyard, on the contrary, would trap this debris and would not allow these objects to rain down through GEO. Since placing a satellite in this inclined orbit can be expensive, we discuss some alternative disposal schemes that have acceptable cost-to-benefit ratios.     

Apparent rotation properties of space debris extracted from photometric measurements

Knowledge about the rotation properties of space debris objects is essential for the active debris removal missions, accurate re-entry predictions and to investigate the long-term effects of the space environment on the attitude motion change. Different orbital regions and object’s physical properties lead to different attitude states and their change over time.Since 2007 the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) performs photometric measurements of space debris objects. To June 2016 almost 2000 light curves of more than 400 individual objects have been acquired and processed. These objects are situated in all orbital regions, from low Earth orbit (LEO), via global navigation systems orbits and high eccentricity orbit (HEO), to geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). All types of objects were observed including the non-functional spacecraft, rocket bodies, fragmentation debris and uncorrelated objects discovered during dedicated surveys. For data acquisition, we used the 1-meter Zimmerwald Laser and Astrometry Telescope (ZIMLAT) at the Swiss Optical Ground Station and Geodynamics Observatory Zimmerwald, Switzerland. We applied our own method of phase-diagram reconstruction to extract the apparent rotation period from the light curve. Presented is the AIUB’s light curve database and the obtained rotation properties of space debris as a function of object type and orbit.     

Properties of the high area-to-mass ratio space debris population at high altitudes

In the framework of its space debris research activities ESA established an optical survey program to study the space debris environment at high altitudes, in particular in the geostationary ring and in the geostationary transfer orbit region. The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) performs these surveys on behalf of ESA using ESA’s 1-m telescope in Tenerife. Regular observations were started in 1999 and are continued during about 120–140 nights per year. Results from these surveys revealed a substantial amount of space debris at high altitudes in the size range from 0.1 to 1 m. Several space debris populations with different dynamical properties were identified in the geostationary ring. During the searches for debris in the geostationary transfer orbit region a new population of objects in unexpected orbits, where no potential progenitors exist, was found. The orbital periods of these objects are clustered around one revolution per day; the eccentricities, however, are scattered between 0 and 0.6. By following-up some of these objects using the ESA telescope and AIUB’s 1-m telescope in Zimmerwald, Switzerland, it was possible to study the properties of this new population. One spectacular finding from monitoring the orbits over time spans of days to months is the fact that these objects must have extreme area-to-mass ratios, which are by several orders of magnitudes higher than for ‘normal-type’ debris. This in turn supports the hypothesis that the new population actually is debris generated in or near the geostationary ring and which is in orbits with periodically varying eccentricity and inclination due to perturbations by solar radiation pressure. In order to further study the nature of these debris, multi-color and temporal photometry (light curves) were acquired with the Zimmerwald telescope. The light curves show strong variations over short time intervals, including signals typical for specular reflections. Some objects exhibit distinct periodic variations with periods ranging from 10 to several 100 s. All this is indicative for objects with complicated shapes and some highly reflective surfaces.     

Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach to prioritization of space debris for removal

As private companies and government space agencies begin to seriously consider the task of active space debris removal, it is becoming increasingly more important to determine the highest priority objects to deorbit. This work sets forth an approach for prioritization of space debris through the utilization of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making methodologies and fuzzy logic, as well as both quantitative and qualitative criteria. The proposed debris prioritization approach considers various criteria including the orbit, size, mass, pairwise and total collision probabilities, and decay timeframe of each debris object. The means of assigning attributes to each assessment criterion is discussed in detail. To determine the weighting scheme for the criteria, a questionnaire was prepared and shared with experts in the field of space situational awareness. The work examines over two thousand critical debris objects selected from the existing debris catalog with respect to these criteria. The quantified attributes for each debris object are then aggregated through the fuzzy versions of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The results of the analysis identify high-priority debris objects for removal from Earth-bound orbits.     

Debris flux comparisons from the Goldstone Radar,Haystack Radar,and Hax Radar prior,during, and after the last solar maximum

The continual monitoring of the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment using highly sensitive radars is essential for an accurate characterization of these dynamic populations. Debris populations are continually evolving since there are new debris sources, previously unrecognized debris sources, and debris loss mechanisms that are dependent on the dynamic space environment. Such radar data are used to supplement, update, and validate existing orbital debris models. NASA has been utilizing radar observations of the debris environment for over a decade from three complementary radars: the NASA JPL Goldstone radar, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) Long Range Imaging Radar (known as the Haystack radar), and the MIT/LL Haystack Auxiliary radar (HAX). All of these systems are highly sensitive radars that operate in a fixed staring mode to statistically sample orbital debris in the LEO environment. Each of these radars is ideally suited to measure debris within a specific size region. The Goldstone radar generally observes objects with sizes from 2 mm to 1 cm. The Haystack radar generally measures from 5 mm to several meters. The HAX radar generally measures from 2 cm to several meters. These overlapping size regions allow a continuous measurement of cumulative debris flux versus diameter from 2 mm to several meters for a given altitude window. This is demonstrated for all three radars by comparing the debris flux versus diameter over 200 km altitude windows for 3 nonconsecutive years from 1998 to 2003. These years correspond to periods before, during, and after the peak of the last solar cycle. Comparing the year to year flux from Haystack for each of these altitude regions indicate statistically significant changes in subsets of the debris populations. Potential causes of these changes are discussed. These analysis results include error bars that represent statistical sampling errors.     

地基设备布站对空间碎片观测能力的影响分析

建立空间碎片地面观测站时,需要用数值仿真工具对其观测能力进行评估和分析.评估观测站能力的重要指标是测站设备对空间碎片的观测量和可观测频度.先进的设备指标和合适的测站位置能够大大提高观测能力.本文使用STK,PROOF等软件,对不同测站雷达和光学设备的观测能力(过境率和探测率)进行了数值仿真和比较分析,得到了一些初步结论,对于空间碎片监测网的设计有一定的参考作用.      

Feasibility of performing space surveillance tasks with a proposed space-based optical architecture

Under ESA contract an industrial consortium including Aboa Space Research Oy (ASRO), the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), and the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), proposed the observation concept, developed a suitable sensor architecture, and assessed the performance of a space-based optical (SBO) telescope in 2005. The goal of the SBO study was to analyse how the existing knowledge gap in the space debris population in the millimetre and centimetre regime may be closed by means of a passive optical instrument. The SBO instrument was requested to provide statistical information on the space debris population in terms of number of objects and size distribution. The SBO instrument was considered to be a cost-efficient with 20 cm aperture and 6° field-of-view and having flexible integration requirements. It should be possible to integrate the SBO instrument easily as a secondary payload on satellites launched into low-Earth orbits (LEO), or into geostationary orbit (GEO). Thus the selected mission concept only allowed for fix-mounted telescopes, and the pointing direction could be requested freely. Since 2007 ESA focuses space surveillance and tracking activities in the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) preparatory program. Ground-based radars and optical telescopes are studied for the build-up and maintenance of a catalogue of objects. In this paper we analyse how the proposed SBO architecture could contribute to the space surveillance tasks survey and tracking. We assume that the SBO instrumentation is placed into a circular sun-synchronous orbit at 800 km altitude. We discuss the observation conditions of objects at higher altitude, and select an orbit close to the terminator plane. A pointing of the sensor orthogonal to the orbital plane with optimal elevation slightly in positive direction (0° and +5°) is found optimal for accessing the entire GEO regime within one day, implying a very good coverage of controlled objects in GEO, too. Simulations using ESA’s Program for Radar and Optical Observation Forecasting (PROOF) in the version 2005 and a GEO reference population extracted from DISCOS revealed that the proposed pointing scenario provides low phase angles together with low angular velocities of the objects crossing the field-of-view. Radiometric simulations show that the optimal exposure time is 1–2 s, and that spherical objects in GEO with a diameter of below 1 m can be detected. The GEO population can be covered under proper illumination nearly completely, but seasonal drops of the coverage are possible. Subsequent observations of objects are on average at least every 1.5 days, not exceeding 3 days at maximum. A single observation arc spans 3° to 5° on average. Using a simulation environment that connects PROOF to AIUB’s program system CelMech we verify the consistency of the initial orbit determination for five selected test objects on subsequent days as a function of realistic astrometric noise levels. The initial orbit determination is possible. We define requirements for a correlator process essential for catalogue build-up and maintenance. Each single observation should provide an astrometric accuracy of at least 1”–1.5” so that the initially determined orbits are consistent within a few hundred kilometres for the semi-major axis, 0.01 for the eccentricity, and 0.1° for the inclination.     

Debris swarms seen by SMEI

The large 3° × 60° fields-of-view of the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) instruments are oriented on the stabilized Coriolis satellite to image most of the sky each Sun-synchronous orbit. Besides observing coronal mass ejections, the SMEI mission objective, SMEI also has detected a plethora of Earth-orbiting satellites (resident space objects or RSOs) brighter than ∼8th magnitude at a rate of about 1 per minute. Occasionally, SMEI sees an RSO swarm: a sudden onset of a large number of RSOs, many more than the nominal rate, upto dozens detected in a 4-s frame. These swarms usually last for a few minutes. A sample of six such RSO ensembles is analyzed in this paper in which the distance and the direction of the velocity vector for individual objects are estimated. We present the observational evidence indicating that the swarms must be near-field objects traveling in orbits near that of Coriolis, and that the relatively speeds between the objects and Coriolis are low. Further, analyses indicate that the RSOs are quite close (<20 m) and are generally moving radially away from the satellite. The predicted encounter geometries for Coriolis passing through or near a small debris cloud is, generally, quite inconsistent with the observations. The most likely explanation consistent with the observations is that SMEI is seeing debris being ejected from the Coriolis spacecraft itself. An analysis of distance and brightness for a subset of the RSOs indicates that the median diameter of the debris particles is ∼80 μm.     

雷达波束驻留模式下空间碎片数量的置信区间估计

碎片数量估计是空间碎片环境统计特征描述的重要内容之一,对于空间碎片环境模型验证、航天器碰撞风险分析以及碎片数量增长趋势预测有重要意义.针对波束指向正东、正南任意仰角的雷达波束驻留(Beam-park)模式(天顶指向是波束指向仰角为90°时的特例),给出了一种估计碎片数量置信区间的方法.对于给定轨道高度范围内一个具有穿越雷达波束可能性(即雷达散射截面足够大,且轨道倾角相对测站纬度足够大)的碎片,将其是否真正穿越波束这一随机事件用(0-1)分布来建模,根据所采集的轨道高度和倾角数据,计算出该轨道高度范围内碎片穿越波束的平均概率,进而采用中心极限定理来估计碎片数量的置信区间.仿真结果表明了方法的有效性.      

A deorbiter CubeSat for active orbital debris removal

This paper introduces a mission concept for active removal of orbital debris based on the utilization of the CubeSat form factor. The CubeSat is deployed from a carrier spacecraft, known as a mothership, and is equipped with orbital and attitude control actuators to attach to the target debris, stabilize its attitude, and subsequently move the debris to a lower orbit where atmospheric drag is high enough for the bodies to burn up. The mass and orbit altitude of debris objects that are within the realms of the CubeSat’s propulsion capabilities are identified. The attitude control schemes for the detumbling and deorbiting phases of the mission are specified. The objective of the deorbiting maneuver is to decrease the semi-major axis of the debris orbit, at the fastest rate, from its initial value to a final value of about 6471?km (i.e., 100?km above Earth considering a circular orbit) via a continuous low-thrust orbital transfer. Two case studies are investigated to verify the performance of the deorbiter CubeSat during the detumbling and deorbiting phases of the mission. The baseline target debris used in the study are the decommissioned KOMPSAT-1 satellite and the Pegasus rocket body. The results show that the deorbiting times for the target debris are reduced significantly, from several decades to one or two years.     

Orbital debris–debris collision avoidance

We focus on preventing collisions between debris and debris, for which there is no current, effective mitigation strategy. We investigate the feasibility of using a medium-powered (5 kW) ground-based laser combined with a ground-based telescope to prevent collisions between debris objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO). The scheme utilizes photon pressure alone as a means to perturb the orbit of a debris object. Applied over multiple engagements, this alters the debris orbit sufficiently to reduce the risk of an upcoming conjunction. We employ standard assumptions for atmospheric conditions and the resulting beam propagation. Using case studies designed to represent the properties (e.g. area and mass) of the current debris population, we show that one could significantly reduce the risk of nearly half of all catastrophic collisions involving debris using only one such laser/telescope facility. We speculate on whether this could mitigate the debris fragmentation rate such that it falls below the natural debris re-entry rate due to atmospheric drag, and thus whether continuous long-term operation could entirely mitigate the Kessler syndrome in LEO, without need for relatively expensive active debris removal.     

Characterizing space debris longitude-dependent distribution based on RAAN perturbation rate

The space debris environment is one of the major threats against payloads. Space debris orbital distribution is of great importance for space debris environment modeling. Due to perturbation factors, the Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) of space objects changes consistently, causing regular rotation of the orbit plane around Earth’s axis. Based on the investigation of the RAAN perturbation rate of concerned objects, this paper proposes a RAAN discretization method in order to present the space debris longitude-dependent distribution. Combined with two line element (TLE) data provided by the US Space Surveillance Network, the estimated value from RAAN discretization method is compared with the real case. The results suggest that using only the initial orbital data at the beginning of the time interval of interest, the RAAN discretization method is able to provide reliable longitude distribution of concerned targets in the next following period. Furthermore, spacecraft cumulative flux against space debris is calculated in this paper. The results suggest that the relevance between spacecraft RAAN setup and flux output is much smaller for LEO targets than MEO targets, which corresponds with the theory analysis. Since the nonspherical perturbation is the major factor for RAAN variation, the RAAN perturbation rate has little connection with the size of orbital objects. In other words, the RAAN discretization method introduced in this paper also applies to space debris of different size range, proposing a possible suggestion for the improvement of space debris environment engineering models.     

Removing orbital debris with lasers

Orbital debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) are now sufficiently dense that the use of LEO space is threatened by runaway collision cascading. A problem predicted more than thirty years ago, the threat from debris larger than about 1 cm demands serious attention. A promising proposed solution uses a high power pulsed laser system on the Earth to make plasma jets on the objects, slowing them slightly, and causing them to re-enter and burn up in the atmosphere. In this paper, we reassess this approach in light of recent advances in low-cost, light-weight modular design for large mirrors, calculations of laser-induced orbit changes and in design of repetitive, multi-kilojoules lasers, that build on inertial fusion research. These advances now suggest that laser orbital debris removal (LODR) is the most cost-effective way to mitigate the debris problem. No other solutions have been proposed that address the whole problem of large and small debris. A LODR system will have multiple uses beyond debris removal. International cooperation will be essential for building and operating such a system.