DebrisWatch I: A survey of faint geosynchronous debris

Recent anomalies exhibited by satellites and rocket bodies have highlighted that a population of faint debris exists at geosynchronous (GEO) altitudes, where there are no natural removal mechanisms. Despite previous optical surveys probing to around 10–20 cm in size, regular monitoring of faint sources at GEO is challenging, thus our knowledge remains sparse. It is essential that we continue to explore the faint debris population using large telescopes to better understand the risk posed to active GEO satellites. To this end, we present photometric results from a survey of the GEO region carried out with the 2.54 m Isaac Newton Telescope in La Palma, Canary Islands. We probe to 21st visual magnitude (around 10 cm, assuming Lambertian spheres with an albedo of 0.1), uncovering 129 orbital tracks with GEO-like motion across the eight nights of dark-grey time comprising the survey. The faint end of our brightness distribution continues to rise until the sensitivity limit of the sensor is reached, suggesting that the modal brightness could be even fainter. We uncover a number of faint, uncatalogued objects that show photometric signatures of rapid tumbling, many of which straddle the limiting magnitude of our survey over the course of a single exposure, posing a complex issue when estimating object size. This work presents the first instalment of DebrisWatch, an ongoing collaboration between the University of Warwick and the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (UK) investigating the faint population of GEO debris.     

Bayesian linking of geosynchronous orbital debris tracks as seen by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

We describe a Bayesian sampling model for linking and constraining orbit models from angular observations of “streaks” in optical telescope images. Our algorithm is particularly suited to situations where the observation times are small fractions of the orbital periods of the observed objects or when there is significant confusion of objects in the observation field. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of multiple orbit models (up to the number of observed tracks) and parameters describing which tracks are linked with which orbit models. Using this algorithm, we forecast the constraints on geosynchronous (GEO) debris orbits achievable with the planned Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). Because of the short 15 s exposure times, preliminary orbit determinations of GEO objects from LSST will have large and degenerate errors on the orbital elements. Combined with the expected crowded fields of GEO debris it will be challenging to reliably link orbital tracks in LSST observations given the currently planned observing cadence.     

International scientific optical network for space debris research

A joint team of researchers under the auspices of the Center for Space Debris Information Collection, Processing and Analysis of the Russian Academy of Sciences collaborates with 15 observatories around the world to perform observations of space debris. For this purpose, 14 telescopes were equipped with charge-coupled device (CCD) cameras, Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, CCD frame processing and ephemeris computation software, with the support of the European and Russian grants. Many of the observation campaigns were carried out in collaboration with the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) team operating at the Zimmerwald observatory and conducting research for the European Space Agency (ESA), using the Tenerife/Teide telescope for searching and tracking of unknown objects in the geostationary region (GEO). More than 130,000 measurements of space objects along a GEO arc of 340.9°, collected and processed at Space Debris Data Base in the Ballistic Center of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (KIAM) in 2005–2006, allowed us to find 288 GEO objects that are absent in the public orbital databases and to determine their orbital elements. Methods of discovering and tracking small space debris fragments at high orbits were developed and tested. About 40 of 150 detected unknown objects of magnitudes 15–20.5 were tracked during many months. A series of dedicated 22-cm telescopes with large field of view for GEO survey tasks is in process of construction. 7 60-cm telescopes will be modernized in 2007.     

Feasibility analysis of LEO and GEO large space debris de/re-orbiting taking into account launch mass of spacecraft-collector and its configuration layout

Analysis of the efficiency of two basic strategies for de/re-orbiting large space debris objects to disposal orbits (DO) is given. Large objects in LEO are classified into groups with similar orbital inclinations and comprise primarily last stages of launch vehicles, in GEO vicinity the paper studies upper stages. Under the first de/re-orbiting variant, it is assumed a spacecraft-collector is equipped with several thruster de/re-orbiting kits (TDKs); one of them can be fixed on an object and is capable of de/re-orbiting an object to a DO independently of the collector. In the second variant, a collector operates as a space tug: transfers objects to a DO and then returns to the next objects in line. The authors study possible configuration layouts of collectors in LEO and near GEO. The available analogous projects are analyzed. The efficiency of both de/re-orbiting variants can be properly compared using the estimations of collector's dry mass and having at one's disposal the parameters of the maneuvers required for transfers between all objects in the group. As reasonable criteria of effectiveness, one can consider (separately or jointly) the launch mass of an equipped collector, its ΔV budget, and the required number of such active spacecraft. Two de/re-orbiting variants are compared in terms of these criteria via mass-energy diagrams constructed for each group of objects in both altitude regions. Analysis of these diagrams shows that low Earth orbits can be more efficiently cleaned under the first de-orbiting variant by using a two-stage space system consisting of an active spacecraft carrying TDKs. For GEO, it is expedient to choose the second re-orbiting variant using a single-stage spacecraft. Our analysis shows that LEO cleaning is an order of magnitude more expensive than that for GEO, hence the problem of LEO population should be given increased attention.     

A debris image tracking using optical flow algorithm

This study proposes a motion detection and object tracking technique for GEO debris in a sequence of images. A couple of techniques (called the “stacking method” and “line-identifying technique”) were recently proposed to address the same problem. Although these techniques are effective at detecting the debris position and motion in the image sequences, there are some issues concerned with computational load and assumed debris motion. This study derives a method to estimate motion vectors of objects in image sequence and finally detect the debris locations by using a computer vision technique called an optical flow algorithm. The new method detects these parameters in low computational time in a serial manner, which implies that it has an advantage to track not only linear but also nonlinear motion of GEO debris more easily than the previous methods. The feasibility of the proposed methods is validated using real and synthesized image sequences which contain some typical debris motions.     

Strategy to search fragments from breakups in GEO

This paper proposes a strategy to search fragments from breakups in the Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) region based upon population prediction and motion prediction by means of ground-based optical observations. Breakup fragments have uncertainties in the states such as their position and motion, or even in their existence. Population prediction and motion prediction resolve those uncertainties. Population prediction evaluates the time-averaged distribution of fragments, whose position at a given time is unknown, in the celestial sphere. Motion prediction evaluates the expected motion of fragments appeared in image series acquired by a telescope’s CCD camera. This paper logically describes procedures of the search strategy, and provides mathematical expressions of population prediction and motion prediction. This paper also validates the search strategy via actual observations, in which a confirmed breakup in the GEO region is selected as a target. It is concluded that the proposed strategy is valid even for searching uncataloged fragments from breakups in the GEO region.     

Track detection of high-velocity resident space objects in Low Earth Orbit

The world’s economy has become heavily dependent on the services provided by satellites. With the exponential increase in satellite launches, the population of defunct or inactive hardware in space has grown substantially. This is especially true in sensitive orbits such as the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) regimes. These objects, collectively known as orbital debris, can reach speeds of up to 28 000km h^?1 in LEO. At these orbital speeds, even the smallest of objects can pose a considerable threat to operational satellites or astronauts. This makes the monitoring, and detection, of these objects of the utmost importance. This work describes the latest detection strategy used in one of Europe’s largest Space Situational Awareness (SSA) installation; the BIstatic RAdar for LEo Survey (BIRALES) space debris radar. We present a novel bottom-up approach that makes use of single-linkage clustering to identify faint radar streaks in spectrogram data. Tests on synthetic data have shown that the detection strategy presented in this study obtains a higher detection rate when it is compared against existing methods. Unlike other approaches, this detection strategy, using the Multi-beam streak detection strategy (MSDS) algorithm, was still able to recall 90% of the track information at an Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of 2dB.     

Local orbital debris flux study in the geostationary ring

A local orbital debris flux analysis is performed in the geostationary (GEO) ring to investigate how frequently near-miss events occur for each longitude slot in the GEO ring. The current resident space object (RSO) environment at GEO is evaluated, and publicly-available two-line element (TLE) data are utilized in tandem with a geostationary torus configuration to simulate near-miss events incurred by the trackable RSO population at GEO. Methodology for determining near-miss events with this formulation is introduced, and the results of the analysis for a one-year time frame are provided to illustrate the need for active GEO remediation.     

Apparent rotation properties of space debris extracted from photometric measurements

Knowledge about the rotation properties of space debris objects is essential for the active debris removal missions, accurate re-entry predictions and to investigate the long-term effects of the space environment on the attitude motion change. Different orbital regions and object’s physical properties lead to different attitude states and their change over time.Since 2007 the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) performs photometric measurements of space debris objects. To June 2016 almost 2000 light curves of more than 400 individual objects have been acquired and processed. These objects are situated in all orbital regions, from low Earth orbit (LEO), via global navigation systems orbits and high eccentricity orbit (HEO), to geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). All types of objects were observed including the non-functional spacecraft, rocket bodies, fragmentation debris and uncorrelated objects discovered during dedicated surveys. For data acquisition, we used the 1-meter Zimmerwald Laser and Astrometry Telescope (ZIMLAT) at the Swiss Optical Ground Station and Geodynamics Observatory Zimmerwald, Switzerland. We applied our own method of phase-diagram reconstruction to extract the apparent rotation period from the light curve. Presented is the AIUB’s light curve database and the obtained rotation properties of space debris as a function of object type and orbit.     

Feasibility of performing space surveillance tasks with a proposed space-based optical architecture

Under ESA contract an industrial consortium including Aboa Space Research Oy (ASRO), the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), and the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), proposed the observation concept, developed a suitable sensor architecture, and assessed the performance of a space-based optical (SBO) telescope in 2005. The goal of the SBO study was to analyse how the existing knowledge gap in the space debris population in the millimetre and centimetre regime may be closed by means of a passive optical instrument. The SBO instrument was requested to provide statistical information on the space debris population in terms of number of objects and size distribution. The SBO instrument was considered to be a cost-efficient with 20 cm aperture and 6° field-of-view and having flexible integration requirements. It should be possible to integrate the SBO instrument easily as a secondary payload on satellites launched into low-Earth orbits (LEO), or into geostationary orbit (GEO). Thus the selected mission concept only allowed for fix-mounted telescopes, and the pointing direction could be requested freely. Since 2007 ESA focuses space surveillance and tracking activities in the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) preparatory program. Ground-based radars and optical telescopes are studied for the build-up and maintenance of a catalogue of objects. In this paper we analyse how the proposed SBO architecture could contribute to the space surveillance tasks survey and tracking. We assume that the SBO instrumentation is placed into a circular sun-synchronous orbit at 800 km altitude. We discuss the observation conditions of objects at higher altitude, and select an orbit close to the terminator plane. A pointing of the sensor orthogonal to the orbital plane with optimal elevation slightly in positive direction (0° and +5°) is found optimal for accessing the entire GEO regime within one day, implying a very good coverage of controlled objects in GEO, too. Simulations using ESA’s Program for Radar and Optical Observation Forecasting (PROOF) in the version 2005 and a GEO reference population extracted from DISCOS revealed that the proposed pointing scenario provides low phase angles together with low angular velocities of the objects crossing the field-of-view. Radiometric simulations show that the optimal exposure time is 1–2 s, and that spherical objects in GEO with a diameter of below 1 m can be detected. The GEO population can be covered under proper illumination nearly completely, but seasonal drops of the coverage are possible. Subsequent observations of objects are on average at least every 1.5 days, not exceeding 3 days at maximum. A single observation arc spans 3° to 5° on average. Using a simulation environment that connects PROOF to AIUB’s program system CelMech we verify the consistency of the initial orbit determination for five selected test objects on subsequent days as a function of realistic astrometric noise levels. The initial orbit determination is possible. We define requirements for a correlator process essential for catalogue build-up and maintenance. Each single observation should provide an astrometric accuracy of at least 1”–1.5” so that the initially determined orbits are consistent within a few hundred kilometres for the semi-major axis, 0.01 for the eccentricity, and 0.1° for the inclination.     

Orbit improvement for GTO objects using follow-up observations

The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern was and is conducting several search campaigns for space debris in the geostationary ring (GEO) and the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). First tests to build up a catalogue of satellites and space debris were performed recently. As the discovery observations of an object usually cover a time interval of a few minutes only, the first orbits determined are assumed to be circular. For GEO objects a circular orbit is a rather good approximation. This is certainly not the case for GTO objects. Nevertheless, a circular orbit seems to be an acceptable approximation for a short time interval around the observations. The first orbits can be used to acquire follow-up observations, which allow the determination of elliptical orbits. The maximum allowed time span between the detection and the follow-up for a successful recovery is found using simulated GTO orbits and observations. Further follow-up observations are simulated in order to study the orbit improvement process and the required force model. The accuracy of orbits needed to build up a catalogue is studied. The simulations are compared to the results achieved with observations acquired by the 1 m telescope on Tenerife.     

Ariane 5 GTO debris mitigation using natural perturbations

GTO objects can potentially collide with operative satellites in LEO and GEO protected regions. Internationally accepted debris mitigation guidelines require that these objects exit these protected regions within 25?years, e.g. by re-entering and burning up in Earth’s atmosphere. In this paper, an inventory of the GTO debris generated from Ariane 5 launches in the period 2012–2017 is provided, and it is expected that none of these objects will re-enter within 25?years. For future launches, natural perturbations can be exploited to increase compliance with mitigation guidelines without the use of extra propellant or complex de-orbiting systems, which is attractive from an economic point of view. The lifetime of GTO objects is very sensitive to initial conditions and some environmental and body-related parameters, mainly due to the effect of solar gravity on the perigee altitude. As a consequence, the lifetime of a specific GTO object cannot be predicted accurately, but its probability of re-entering in less than 25?years can be estimated with proper accuracy by following a statistical approach. By propagating the orbits of over 800,000 simulated Ariane 5 GTO objects, it was found that the launch time leading to the highest probability of compliance with debris mitigation guidelines for GEO launches from Kourou corresponds to about 2 PM local time, regardless of the date of launch, which leads to compliance rates ranging from 60 to 100%. Current practice is to launch at around 5–9?PM, so a change in procedures would be required in order to reach a higher degree of compliance with debris mitigation guidelines, which was predicted to be on average below 20% for the objects generated in the period 2012–2017.     

Evolution of the orbital elements for objects with high area-to-mass ratios in geostationary transfer orbits

A new population of uncatalogued objects in geosynchronous Earth orbits (GEO), with a mean motion of about 1 rev/day and eccentricities up to 0.6, has been identified recently. The first observations of this new type of objects were acquired in the framework of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) search for space debris in GEO and the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) using the ESA 1-m telescope on Tenerife. Earlier studies have postulated that the perturbations due to the solar radiation pressure can lead to such large eccentricities for GEO objects with a high area-to-mass ratio (A/M). The simulations showed that the eccentricities of GEO objects with large A/M exhibit periodic variations with periods of about one year and amplitudes depending on the value of A/M. The findings of these studies could be confirmed by observations from the ESA 1-m telescope on Tenerife.     

A Partially Orthogonal EnKF approach to atmospheric density estimation using orbital debris

A key requirement for accurate trajectory prediction and space situational awareness is knowledge of how non-conservative forces affect space object motion. These forces vary temporally and spatially, and are driven by the underlying behavior of space weather particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Existing trajectory prediction algorithms adjust space weather models based on calibration satellite observations. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction, especially for uncontrolled debris objects. The uncontrolled nature of debris objects makes them particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by utilizing observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters influencing their motion.The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize debris objects as passive, indirect sensors of the space environment. We focus on estimating atmospheric density and its spatial variability to allow for more precise prediction of LEO object motion. The estimated density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth at a fixed altitude of 400 km. The position and velocity of each debris object are also estimated. A Partially Orthogonal Ensemble Kalman Filter (POEnKF) is used for assimilation of space object measurements to estimate density.For performance comparison, the scenario characteristics (number of objects, measurement cadence, etc.) are based on a sensor tasking campaign executed for the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model project. The POEnKF analysis details spatial comparisons between the true and estimated density fields, and quantifies the improved accuracy in debris object motion predictions due to more accurate drag force models from density estimates. It is shown that there is an advantage to utilizing multiple debris objects instead of just one object. Although the work presented here explores the POEnKF performance when using information from only 16 debris objects, the research vision is to utilize information from all routinely observed debris objects. Overall, the filter demonstrates the ability to estimate density to within a threshold of accuracy dependent on measurement/sensor error. In the case of a geomagnetic storm, the filter is able to track the storm and provide more accurate density estimates than would be achieved using a simple exponential atmospheric density model or MSIS Atmospheric Model (when calm conditions are assumed).     

Improved detection of faint streaks based on a streak-like spatial filter

This paper presents an algorithm to detect very faint object streaks on CCD images acquired with an optical system. The proposed detection method uses image filters simulating the geometrical form and orientation of possible streaks on the CCD image. The method searches for a matching between streak and filter evaluating the convolutions of the image with all possible filters. Based on the statistics of the image background a threshold is applied in order to accept, respectively reject, the possible streak candidates. The detection probabilities and the effect of different parameter settings are estimated with tests on simulated images, while subframes of real images are used to evaluate the applicability of the algorithm to real cases. The detection probability of this method depends on the length and on the signal-to-noise ratio of the streak. For long streaks, a detection for signal-to-noise values around 0.5 is achieved. The further characterization of the detected streak (e.g. centroid and length), which is not performed in the current algorithm, and the reduction of the computation time, which is relatively high for full acquired frames, as well as possible improvements are briefly addressed.     

The classical Laplace plane as a stable disposal orbit for geostationary satellites

The classical Laplace plane is a frozen orbit, or equilibrium solution for the averaged dynamics arising from Earth oblateness and lunisolar gravitational perturbations. The pole of the orbital plane of uncontrolled GEO satellites regress around the pole of the Laplace plane at nearly constant inclination and rate. In accordance with Friesen et al. (1993), we show how this stable plane can be used as a robust long-term disposal orbit. The current graveyard regions for end-of-life retirement of GEO payloads, which is several hundred kilometers above GEO depending on the spacecraft characteristics, cannot contain the newly discovered high area-to-mass ratio debris population. Such objects are highly susceptible to the effects of solar radiation pressure exhibiting dramatic variations in eccentricity and inclination over short periods of time. The Laplace plane graveyard, on the contrary, would trap this debris and would not allow these objects to rain down through GEO. Since placing a satellite in this inclined orbit can be expensive, we discuss some alternative disposal schemes that have acceptable cost-to-benefit ratios.     

基于仅光学观测的短弧关联分析方法

初始轨道确定是空间目标编目的一个重要部分，尤其在光学仅角度观测下是极具挑战性的。光学观测在短弧的情况下很难进行有效的初轨确定，解决短弧问题的一个重要手段是将不同时刻获取到的短弧数据进行关联匹配，找到属于同一个目标的观测数据。以容许域的方法为基础，通过找到拟合多组观测数据的最优轨道的方式来确定角度预测值和角度测量真实值之间的最小误差。其次，根据对观测误差统计特性的研究，从理论上验证了线性化误差传播方式在短弧数据应用上的可行性，并给出合理的误差限，通过卡方检验的方式确定弧段之间的关联性。同时，给出了所提出的短弧关联分析方法应用于LEO，HEO，MEO，GEO轨道的结果，并描述了应用于长间隔低轨道目标观测数据上的困难，提出了用角度预报值的误差特性规律对低轨目标关联进行改进的方法，结果表明对于LEO观测短弧的关联性识别的成功率由原来的87%提升到99%。     

Active space debris charging for contactless electrostatic disposal maneuvers

The remote charging of a passive object using an electron beam enables touchless re-orbiting of large space debris from geosynchronous orbit (GEO) using electrostatic forces. The advantage of this method is that it can operate with a separation distance of multiple craft radii, thus reducing the risk of collision. The charging of the tug–debris system to high potentials is achieved by active charge transfer using a directed electron beam. Optimal potential distributions using isolated- and coupled-sphere models are discussed. A simple charging model takes into account the primary electron beam current, ultra-violet radiation induced photoelectron emission, collection of plasma particles, secondary electron emission and the recapture of emitted particles. The results show that through active charging in a GEO space environment high potentials can be both achieved and maintained with about a 75% transfer efficiency. Further, the maximum electrostatic tractor force is shown to be insensitive to beam current levels. This latter later result is important when considering debris with unknown properties.     

Debris swarms seen by SMEI

The large 3° × 60° fields-of-view of the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) instruments are oriented on the stabilized Coriolis satellite to image most of the sky each Sun-synchronous orbit. Besides observing coronal mass ejections, the SMEI mission objective, SMEI also has detected a plethora of Earth-orbiting satellites (resident space objects or RSOs) brighter than ∼8th magnitude at a rate of about 1 per minute. Occasionally, SMEI sees an RSO swarm: a sudden onset of a large number of RSOs, many more than the nominal rate, upto dozens detected in a 4-s frame. These swarms usually last for a few minutes. A sample of six such RSO ensembles is analyzed in this paper in which the distance and the direction of the velocity vector for individual objects are estimated. We present the observational evidence indicating that the swarms must be near-field objects traveling in orbits near that of Coriolis, and that the relatively speeds between the objects and Coriolis are low. Further, analyses indicate that the RSOs are quite close (<20 m) and are generally moving radially away from the satellite. The predicted encounter geometries for Coriolis passing through or near a small debris cloud is, generally, quite inconsistent with the observations. The most likely explanation consistent with the observations is that SMEI is seeing debris being ejected from the Coriolis spacecraft itself. An analysis of distance and brightness for a subset of the RSOs indicates that the median diameter of the debris particles is ∼80 μm.