影响卫星故障的空间天气分析

基于美国国家地球物理数据中心(NGDC) 2384例和中国19颗卫星的263例卫星故障信息, 结合1963-2012年小时平均的多种空间环境数据, 定量分析了三种卫星故障发生期间的空间要素特征, 探讨单粒子锁定(SEU)、表面充电致静电放电(ESD)和内部深层充电所致电子引起的电磁脉冲(ECEMP)与空间天气事件的可能联系, 得出以下主要结论. (1)大部分SEU和ECEMP发生于空间天气平静时, 但在其前后3日内地磁活动达到了磁暴水平, 相对来说比例最大的发生在Dst_min之后第3日 (48～72h). (2) ESD受地磁活动和高能电子通量影响明显. 与磁暴、相对论电子通量增强事件的季节性相对应, 两分点附近ESD和ECEMP的发生率高; 93.6% 的 ESD发生前后72h内地磁活动达到磁暴水平, 故障发生时间均匀分布在 Dst_min前0～48h 和后0～24h; 54.9%的ESD 发生时处于地磁暴期(Dst <-30nT), 以-50～-30nT的小磁暴水平居多; 40.6%的ESD发生于高能电子通量高水平期(≥ 103pfu, 1pfu =1cm-2·s-1·sr-1), 81.9%的ESD发生前后72h 内高能电子通量峰值≥ 103pfu, 发生率最高时段为电子通量峰值前 48～72h. (3)高能电子对中国同步轨道卫星的SEU影响明显, 42.5% 故障发生 时高能电子通量≥ 103pfu, 故障在峰值前48～72h和峰值后48～72h 的发生概率相当, 约为23.0%. (4)同步轨道卫星SEU受太阳质子事件的影响相对较大, 22.5%的中国同步轨道卫星故障发生前后72h内发生了太阳质子事件, 季节性不明显.      

中地球轨道高能电子辐射环境特性分析

采用中国中地球轨道卫星在太阳活动下降相到上升相的高能电子探测数据, 首次分析研究了该轨道高能电子环境的空间分布、通量强度、时序变化以及对地磁暴活动响应的特性. 结果表明, 中地球轨道高能电子的空间分布 范围稳定, 电子通量强度随能量升高而下降; 中地球轨道高能电子环境是 一个在不同时间尺度上剧烈变化的动态系统, 该系统可能间歇性地出现27天重 现性变化, 该系统变化受地磁暴事件调制, 但其对磁暴的响应呈现出非线性特征.      

地球同步轨道高能电子增强事件预报方法

分析了地球同步轨道高能电子通量增强事件的发生规律及其与太阳风和行星际磁场参数的关系，并在此基础上建立了基于人工神经网络的高能电子增强事件模式，经实测数据检验，预报模式可以对未来1天的高能电子通量进行预报，误差为8．2％，达到了较高水平．     

由高能电子引发的风云二号C星跳变事件概率分析

通过对地球同步轨道高能电子监测数据(来自GOES)与风云二号卫星跳变事件的对比分析发现, 跳变事件均发生在高能电子增强事件即所谓高能电子暴期间, 因此初步断定, 跳变事件与高能电子引起的卫星介质深层充放电事件有关. 通过对不同通量高能电子增强事件期间所发生的跳变事件发生率进行量化计算, 给出跳变事件发生概率的计算方法, 为卫星在轨运行管理及防护提供参考.      

左旋寻常的极光千米波与辐射带高能电子相互作用的参数化研究

参数化研究了在L=4.5外辐射带区域左旋寻常（Left-hand Ordinary mode, L-O模）的极光千米波与高能电子的相互作用，定量计算了左旋寻常的极光千米波在不同峰值频率、传播角分布和纬度分布条件下的弹跳平均投掷角扩散系数、动量扩散系数和投掷角–动量交叉扩散系数。计算结果表明，动量扩散系数一般比投掷角扩散系数大100倍左右，说明动量扩散在L-O模与电子间的相互作用中起主导作用。随着传播角范围的改变，扩散系数均未发生明显变化，这说明L-O模与电子相互作用的扩散系数对传播角范围的依赖性很小。此外，扩散系数会因为L-O模纬度分布的改变而发生剧烈变化，该结果与之前得到的纬度分布对右旋奇异的极光千米波的影响是一致的。通过参数化研究结果表明，适当条件下，L-O模可能会显著影响外辐射带高能电子的动力学过程。      

地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型

地球同步轨道区域充满能量高达MeV的高能电子,其对航天器威胁极大.电子微分通量预报有助于及时有效地预警高能电子事件,降低高能电子对航天器造成的危害.本文以此为背景提出了一种基于经验正交函数（EOF）方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量预报模型.该模型利用太阳风参数及地磁指数拟合后一天的电子通量EOF系数,结合EOF基函数给出后一天中大于2MeV电子微分通量预报.对2003年1月至2006年6月的样本测试结果表明,该模型可以重构出电子微分通量的真实变化,给出较好的5min微分通量预报,其平均预报效率达到67%左右.      

上游太阳风中高能电子向同步轨道区的传输

通常认为，同步轨道区的电子通量增加是由于磁暴或者上游太阳风高速流的扰动所引起．近来的观测表明，起源于太阳活动的行星际高能电子也是引起同步轨道电子通量增加的重要原因之一．Zhao等在研究2000年7月14日太阳剧烈活动时发现，同步轨道区相对论电子通量巨幅增加时没有观察到上游太阳风高速流的扰动，并且磁暴发生在电子通量事件之后．采用解析磁场模型和实际磁场模型(T96模型)模拟来自太阳的相对论电子在磁尾中的运动特性．计算结果表明，当行星际磁场南向时，进入到磁尾的行星际相对论电子可以从较远的磁尾区域运动到同步轨道区域．这一研究结果从理论上论证了起源于太阳活动的高能电子可以对同步轨道区相对论电子通量的增加产生重要的作用．     

哨声模合声波与地球同步轨道高能电子通量增强事件事例研究

局部加速机制是磁暴期间地球外辐射带高能电子通量增强事件发生的重要原 因. 此加速机制需要两个基本条件, 一是存在种子电子, 二是存在能与种子 电子产生共振的加速波动, 包括哨声模合声波. 通过对2004-2006年 Pi1地磁脉动持续时间与种子电子通量的相关性分析, 更明确提出Pi1地磁脉 动的持续时间可以作为种子电子通量的指示剂. 通过对三个磁暴事例地球同 步轨道的种子电子通量、高能电子通量及哨声模合声波变化情况的分析, 发 现在高能电子通量较强的事例中, 均观测到较高的种子电子通量和较强的 哨声模合声波, 这在一定程度上验证了哨声模合声波对种子电子的回旋加速 机制, 且合声波强度与高能电子通量有正的相关性.      

极区顶部电离层离子上行的太阳活动依赖性研究

利用第23太阳活动周DMSP F12,F13和F15卫星数据,分别对南北半球极区顶部电离层离子上行的太阳活动依赖性进行了研究.结果表明,南北半球上行事件对太阳活动的响应特征基本一致,即高（低）太阳活动时,离子上行通量以及上行数密度较大（小）,但是上行速度及上行发生率较低（高）.以南半球高纬为例,计算得到离子上行通量、数密度、速度及发生率在高低太阳活动条件下的比值分别约为2.26,3.35,0.71,0.51.对离子上行太阳活动依赖性的可能原因进行了分析.不同太阳活动水平下,光致电离及高能粒子沉降的差异会导致电离层离子密度的不同,而电离层离子密度的变化会改变离子elax-elax中性大气之间的碰撞频率,这是影响离子上行发生率的一个重要原因.      

Ionospheric response to solar and magnetospheric protons during January 15–22, 2005: EAGLE whole atmosphere model results

We present an analysis of the ionosphere and thermosphere response to Solar Proton Events (SPE) and magnetospheric proton precipitation in January 2005, which was carried out using the model of the entire atmosphere EAGLE. The ionization rates for the considered period were acquired from the AIMOS (Atmospheric Ionization Module Osnabrück) dataset. For numerical experiments, we applied only the proton-induced ionization rates of that period, while all the other model input parameters, including the electron precipitations, corresponded to the quiet conditions. In January 2005, two major solar proton events with different energy spectra and proton fluxes occurred on January 17 and January 20. Since two geomagnetic storms and several sub-storms took place during the considered period, not only solar protons but also less energetic magnetospheric protons contributed to the calculated ionization rates. Despite the relative transparency of the thermosphere for high-energy protons, an ionospheric response to the SPE and proton precipitation from the magnetotail was obtained in numerical experiments. In the ionospheric E layer, the maximum increase in the electron concentration is localized at high latitudes, and at heights of the ionospheric F2 layer, the positive perturbations were formed in the near-equatorial region. An analysis of the model-derived results showed that changes in the ionospheric F2 layer were caused by a change in the neutral composition of the thermosphere. We found that in the recovery phase after both solar proton events and the enhancement of magnetospheric proton precipitations associated with geomagnetic disturbances, the TEC and electron density in the F region and in topside ionosphere/plasmasphere increase at low- and mid-latitudes due to an enhancement of atomic oxygen concentration. Our results demonstrate an important role of magnetospheric protons in the formation of negative F-region ionospheric storms. According to our results, the topside ionosphere/plasmasphere and bottom-side ionosphere can react to solar and magnetospheric protons both with the same sign of disturbances or in different way. The same statement is true for TEC and foF2 disturbances. Different disturbances of foF2 and TEC at high and low latitudes can be explained by topside electron temperature disturbances.     

我国空间电力线谐波辐射现象分析

研究了利用DEMETER卫星电磁场探测数据辨识电力线谐波辐射(PLHR,Power Line Harmonic Radiation)事件的方法,探讨了我国空间中PLHR事件的特点.通过采用时频分析和Welch功率谱估计法分析了2005-2010年6年我国空间中的全部卫星电场强度探测数据,共发现151例PLHR事件,给出了PLHR事件的统计分析和典型实例.结果表明我国空间PLHR事件的频率分布在1 000~4 500 Hz之间,多为50 Hz的奇数倍,间隔为50/100 Hz.PLHR事件与我国电网发展和变化有密切关系,与地磁活动水平无关,呈现出昼夜差异和季节差异.最后给出了影响PLHR事件探测的可能因素.     

Ionospheric heating due to solar flares as measured by SROSS-C2 satellite

The data on thermal fluctuations of the topside ionosphere have been measured by Retarding Potential Analyser (RPA) payload aboard the SROSS-C2 satellite over the Indian region for half of the solar cycle (1995–2000). The data on solar flare has been obtained from National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) Boulder, Colorado (USA) and other solar indices (solar radio flux and sunspot number) were download from NGDC website. The ionospheric electron and ion temperatures show a consistent enhancement during the solar flares. The enhancement in the electron temperature is 28–92% and for ion temperature it is 18–39% compared to the normal day’s average temperature. The enhancement of ionospheric temperatures due to solar flares is correlated with the variation of sunspot and solar radio flux (F10.7cm). All the events studied in the present paper fall in the category of subflare with almost same intensity. The ionospheric electron and ion temperatures enhancement have been compared with the IRI model values.     

Solar terrestrial effects of two distinct types

The occurrence frequencies or fluxes of most of the solar phenomena show a 11-year cycle like that of sunspots. However, the average characteristics of these phenomena may not show a 11-year cycle. Among the terrestrial parameters, some related directly to the occurrence frequencies of solar phenomena (for example, ionospheric number densities related to solar EUV fluxes which show 11-year cycle like sunspots) show 11-year cycles, including the double-peak structures near sunspot maxima. Other terrestrial parameters related to average characteristics may not show 11-year sunspot cycles. For example, long-term geomagnetic activity (Ap or Dst indices) is related to the average interplanetary solar wind speed V and the total magnetic field B. The average values of V depend not on the occurrence frequency of ICMEs and/or CIRs as such, but on the relative proportion of slow and high-speed events in them. Hence, V values (and Ap values) in any year could be low, normal or high irrespective of the phase of the 11-year cycle, except that during sunspot minimum, V (and Ap) values are also low. However, 2–3 years after the solar minimum (well before sunspot maximum), V values increase, oscillate near a high level for several years, and may even increase further during the declining phase of sunspot activity, due to increased influence of high-speed CIRs (corotating interplanetary regions). Thus, Ap would have no fixed relationship with sunspot activity. If some terrestrial parameter shows a 11-year cycle, chances are that the solar connection is through the occurrence frequencies (and not average characteristics) of some solar parameter.     

电离层电场对环电流变化响应的时延

本文讨论了强磁暴期间磁层环电流能量变化率与电离层电场变化之间的联系.STARE和SABRE雷达资料表明,电离层对环电流变化响应的主要特点是:(1)在磁地方时午后区,响应的时延达最大(约1—2小时),场强以指数形式增加;在其它时区内,无系统的增强过程,仅观测到较大的、有明显涨落的电场值.(2)STARE(70.2°N)和SABRE(65.8°N)测到的电场变化往往具有相反的趋势.(3)在STARE视场内,环电流能量变化达极大后,较低纬(70.2°N)上的电场值经常大于较高纬(71.8°N)上的值.分析结果表明,磁暴期间磁层-电离层耦合过程中,环电流起着重要作用.      

Analysis and improvement of ionospheric thin shell model used in SBAS for China region

The most frequently used mapping function for converting slant total electron content (STEC) to vertical total electron content (VTEC) uses a simplified ionospheric single layer model in satellite based augmentation system (SBAS). Aiming at ionospheric single layer model altitude variation, we analyzed the statistical characteristic of mapping function in systemic approach particular for the region of China, and then experimental mapping function was proposed. The experimental mapping function is used in SBAS ionospheric correction and the precision of vertical correction is compared with standard mapping function. The results show that conversion factor errors depend on latitude, time and elevation, experimental mapping function is helpful to the vertical TEC estimation and may improve the precision of SBAS ionospheric refraction correction especially for the low latitude region of China.     

Harmonic analysis of the ionospheric electron densities retrieved from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultation measurements

In order to investigate the regular variations of the ionosphere, the least-squares harmonic estimation is applied to the time series of ionospheric electron densities derived from about five years of Global Positioning System radio occultation observations by FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites. The analysis is done for different latitudes and altitudes in the region of Iran. The least-squares harmonic estimation is found to be a powerful tool for the frequency analysis of the completely unevenly spaced time series of radio occultation measurements. Although the obtained results are slightly different from the exact expected cycles (i.e. annual and diurnal components with their Fourier decompositions, and the 27-day period) due to the low horizontal resolution of radio occultation measurements, high vertical resolution of the observations enables us to detect not only the total electron content variations but also periodic patterns of electron densities at different altitudes of the ionosphere. The dominant diurnal and annual signals together with their Fourier series decompositions are obtained, which are consistent with the previous analyses on the total electron content. In the equatorial anomaly band, the annual component is weaker than its Fourier decomposition periods. In particular, the semiannual period dominates the annual component, indicating the relationship between the semiannual variation of the electron densities and the ionospheric equatorial anomaly. From detection of the phases of the components, it is revealed that the annual signal generally has its maximum value in summers at high altitudes, and in the winters at low altitudes. This is probably due to the higher [O/N₂] ratios in winter than in the summer in the lower ionosphere. Furthermore, the semiannual component mostly peaks around solstices or about a month before/after them.     

Energetic electron fluxes stimulated with pulsed injection of plasma in the ionosphere

Two active experiments have been carried out with a plasma gun on the MR-12 rocket launched from Volgograd. Plasma blobs were injected along (1 experiment) and transverse (2 experiment) the magnetic field lines. In both experiments, the increase of the energetic electron fluxes was registered: in the first experiment it was 2–3 times, and in the second one 10–40 times, larger than the background fluxes before injection. The changes of the spectrum of the energetic electron pulsations have been found also.     

电离层电场半年变化的模拟研究

利用一个中低纬电离层电场理论模式，模拟太阳活动低年、地磁活动平静情况下，中低纬地区电离层电场全年的变化情况．结果显示，单独计算南、北半球(去耦合)得到电离层电场具有明显的周年变化特征，且两个半球电场的相位相差半年左右．而同时计算南、北半球(计及耦合)时，电场则是以半年变化为主，且这种半年变化的幅度和相位随地方时和地磁纬度有变化．提出一个南、北半球耦合电路的简单物理模型给予解释．电路模型初步计算发现，即使两个半球电离层电场分别具有周年变化，只要它们变化的幅度相当，相位相差半年左右，由于跨越南北半球磁力线的耦合效果，耦合的电离层电场会产生明显的半年变化分量．由于缺少连续的电离层电场观测资料，将模拟结果与Richmond基于非相干散射雷达数据建立的经验模式(ISR Model)相比较，结果符合较好．