由高能电子引发的风云二号C星跳变事件概率分析

通过对地球同步轨道高能电子监测数据(来自GOES)与风云二号卫星跳变事件的对比分析发现, 跳变事件均发生在高能电子增强事件即所谓高能电子暴期间, 因此初步断定, 跳变事件与高能电子引起的卫星介质深层充放电事件有关. 通过对不同通量高能电子增强事件期间所发生的跳变事件发生率进行量化计算, 给出跳变事件发生概率的计算方法, 为卫星在轨运行管理及防护提供参考. 

Analysis of Probability of the Upset Events on Fengyun-2C

It is widely known that satellites on geosynchronous orbit are suffering from the energetic electrons in the outer radiation belt which not only make dose effect but also cause the deep charging effect.There have been many reports on the failure of satellites that point to the deep changing effect. Although the geosynchronous orbit is not in the core region of the outer radiation belt and the flux of energetic electron is lower than that of medium Earth orbit,the satellites here always receive the bombardment of the electrons which meet the condition of deep charging effect,especially during the energetic electron storm.In recent years,as more and more sensitive electronic parts are used in the satellite,malfunctions and failures on geosynchronous satellites have become much popular, including Chinese meteorological satellites,namely Fengyun-2 satellites.According to comparison of the data of high energy electrons in geosynchronous orbit from GOES and the upset events on Fengyun-2 satellite,it is shown that all of the upset events on Fengyun-2 satellite occurred during the period of the high energy electron flux increasing,and the upset events is related with deep dielectric charging caused by high energy electrons.In this paper,statistic work that analyze the distribution of the upset events on Fengyun-2 satellite occurred from January 2005 to June 2008 was carried out.It was found that the high energy electron flux enhancement happened periodically,and a model for such distribution of the upset events with the high energy electron flux increasing events is established.The model gives a method to calculate the probability of the upset events through statistical result of the occurrence of the upset and the high energy electron flux enhancement.