A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Local-area helioseismology as a diagnostic tool for solar variability

Dynamical and thermal variations of the internal structure of the Sun can affect the energy flow and result in variations in irradiance at the surface. Studying variations in the interior is crucial for understanding the mechanisms of the irradiance variations. “Global” helioseismology based on analysis of normal mode frequencies, has helped to reveal radial and latitudinal variations of the solar structure and dynamics associated with the solar cycle in the deep interior. A new technique, - “local-area” helioseismology or heliotomography, offers additional potentially important diagnostics by providing three-dimensional maps of the sound speed and flows in the upper convection zone. These diagnostics are based on inversion of travel times of acoustic waves which propagate between different points on the solar surface through the interior. The most significant variations in the thermodynamic structure found by this method are associated with sunspots and complexes of solar activity. The inversion results provide evidence for areas of higher sound speed beneath sunspot regions located at depths of 4–20 Mm, which may be due to accumulated heat or magnetic field concentrations. However, the physics of these structures is not yet understood. Heliotomography also provides information about large-scale stable longitudinal structures in the solar interior, which can be used in irradiance models. This new diagnostic tool for solar variability is currently under development. It will require both a substantial theoretical and modeling effort and high-resolution data to develop new capabilities for understanding mechanisms of solar variability.     

Total solar and spectral irradiance variations from solar cycles 21 to 23

Total solar and UV irradiances have been measured from various space platforms for more than two decades. More recently, observations of the “Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations” (VIRGO) experiment on SOHO provided information about spectral irradiance variations in the near-UV at 402 nm, visible at 500 nm, and near-IR at 862 nm. Analyses based on these space-borne irradiance measurements have convinced the skeptics that solar irradiance at various wavelengths and in the entire spectrum is changing with the waxing and waning solar activity. The main goal of this paper is to review the short- and long-term variations in total solar and spectral irradiances and their relation to the evolution of magnetic fields from solar cycles 21 to 23.     

An investigation of the spatial variations of the energetic trapped electrons at low altitudes

We have analyzed the trapped electron data (0.19–3.2 MeV) taken by the Japanese OHZORA satellite operated at 350–850 km altitude in polar orbit during 1984–1987 near solar minimum. The electron observations reveal all the global attributes of the quiet-time electron radiation belts, such as the South Atlantic Anomaly, the electron “slot”, and the outer radiation belt regions. The electron data are in general agreement with the NASA AE-8 electron model, but there are differences, particularly with respect to distinctive local-time variations in the slot region. In this paper, we present results from analyses of variations of the electron pitch angle distributions with local time, L-shell and altitude.     

GRB 980425, SN1998BW and the EMBH model

The EMBH model, previously developed using GRB 991216 as a prototype, is here applied to GRB 980425. We fit the luminosity observed in the 40–700 keV, 2–26 keV and 2–10 keV bands by the BeppoSAX satellite. In addition we present a novel scenario in which the supernova SN1998bw is the outcome of an “induced gravitational collapse” triggered by GRB 980425, in agreement with the GRB-Supernova Time Sequence (GSTS) paradigm [Ruffini, R., Bianco, C.L., Chardonnet, P., Fraschetti, F., Xue, S.-S. On a possible GRB-supernova time sequence. Astrophys. J. 555, L117–L120, 2001c]. A further outcome of this astrophysically exceptional sequence of events is the formation of a young neutron star generated by the SN1998bw event. A coordinated observational activity is recommended to further enlighten the underlying scenario of this most unique astrophysical system.     

On the non-occurrence of Type I X-ray bursts from the black hole candidates

It has been justifiably questioned if the black hole candidates (BHCs) have “hard surface” why Type I X-ray bursts are not seen from them [Narayan, R., Black holes in astrophysics, New J. Phys, 7, 199–218, 2005]. It is pointed out that a “physical surface” need not always be “hard” and could be “gaseous” in case the compact object is sufficiently hot [Mitra, A., The day of the reckoning: the value of the integration constant in the vacuum Schwarzschild solution, physics/0504076, p1–p6, 2005; Mitra, A., BHs or ECOs: A review of 90 years of misconceptions, in: Focus on Black Holes Research, Nova Science Pub., NY, p1–p94, 2005]. Even if a “hard surface” would be there, presence of strong intrinsic magnetic field could inhibit Type I X-ray burst from a compact object as is the case for Her X-1. Thus, non-occurrence of Type I bursts actually rules out those alternatives of BHs which are either non-magnetized or cold and, hence, is no evidence for existence of Event Horizons (EHs). On the other hand, from the first principle, we again show that the BHCs being uncharged and having finite masses cannot be BHs, because uncharged BHs have a unique mass M = 0. Thus the previous results that the so-called BHCs are actually extremely hot, ultramagnetized, Magnetospheric Eternally Collapsing Objects (ECOs) [Robertson, S., Leiter, D., Evidence for intrinsic magnetic moment in black hole candidates, Astrophys. J., 565, 447–451, (astro-ph/0102381), 2002 ; Robertson, S., Leiter, D., MECO model of galactic black hole candidates and active galactic nuclei, in: New Developments in Black Hole Research, Nova Science Pub., NY, p1–p44, astro-ph/0602453, 2005] rather than anything else get reconfirmed by non-occurrence of Type I X-ray bursts in BHCs.     

Specific features of the high-speed plasma stream cycles

The high-speed plasma streams in the solar wind are investigated during the solar cycles nos. 20–22 (1964–1996), separately on the two types of streams according to their solar origin: the HSPS produced by coronal holes (co-rotating) and the flare-generated, in keeping with the classification made in different catalogues. The analysis is performed taking into account the following high-speed stream parameters: the durations (in days), the maximum velocities, the velocity gradients and, the importance of the streams. The time variation of these parameters and the high-speed plasma streams occurrence rate show an 11-year periodicity with some differences between the solar cycles considered. A detailed analysis of the high-speed stream 11-year cycles is made by comparison with the “standard” cycles of the sunspot relative number (Wolf number). The different behaviour of the high-speed stream parameters between even and odd solar cycles could be due to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The increased activity of the high-speed plasma streams on the descendant phases of the cycles, regardless of their solar sources, proves the existence of some special local conditions of the solar plasma and the magnetic field on a large scale that allow the ejection of the high energy plasma streams. This fact has led us to the analysis the stream parameters during the different phases of the solar cycles (minimum, ascendant, maximum and, descendant) as well as during the polar magnetic field reversal intervals. The differences between the phases considered are pointed out. The solar cycles 20 and 22 reveal very similar dynamics of the flare-generated and also co-rotating stream parameters during the maximum, descendant and reversal intervals. This fact could be due to their position in a Hale Cycle (the first component of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle). The 21st solar cycle dominance of all co-rotating stream parameters against the 20th and 22nd solar cycle ones, during almost all phases, could be due to the same structure of a Hale Cycle – solar cycle 21 is the second component in a 22-year SC. During the reversal intervals, all high-speed stream parameters have comparable values with the ones of the maximum phases of the cycles even if this interval contains a small part of the descendant branch (solar cycles 20 and 22).     

The asymmetry of the solar cycle: A result of non-linearity

The paper presents a numerical analysis of Wolf sunspot numbers, with emphasis being laid on the asymmetry of the cyclic variation. To that purpose we have used the standard tables of monthly numbers and, in addition to the Fourier transform, we have done an overall analysis of the trend around each maximum. Many of these maxima present an asymmetry, and sometimes the presence of two maxima is evident. The non-linear RLC van der Pol model suggested by Polygiannakis and Moussas [Polygiannakis, J.M., Moussas, X. A nonlinear RLC solar cycle model. Solar Physics 163, 193–203, 1996] can explain many features of the observed asymmetries. Our analysis shows that a consistent deconvolution in two Gaussian curves is possible for each maximum. We may presume that the observed sunspot time series includes a hidden complex structure. This could give some hints of a behavior typical for coupled non-linear oscillators. It is a matter of further interpretations. whether such “oscillators” are just a simple approximation of a much complex phenomenon, or are a sign of another more physically based model like the dynamo model (or other models).     

Experimental investigations of quasistable radiation belts formed after solar proton events in September–October 1989 and March 1991 based on measurements made by “Liulin” dosimeter-radiometer on board the “MIR” space station

Since 1988 high sensitivity dosimeter-radiometer “Liulin” has been installed on board the MIR space station. Device measured absorbed dose rate and flux of penetrating particles. Results of measurements showed that after powerful solar proton events (SPE) September–October, 1989 and March, 1991 additional quasistable radiation belts were formed in the near earth space within the interval L=1.8−3.0. These “new” belts were observed as an additional maximums in flux (and sometimes dose) channels when crossing the SAA region. “New” belts were quasi stable and existed at least several months, decaying slightly after SPE. Dose to flux ratio analysis showed that major components of these belts were energetic electrons and protons arising in connection with preceding SPEs.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

Solar radiation variability in the last 1400 years recorded in the carbon isotope ratio of a mediterranean sea core

We present measurements and data analysis of the carbon stable isotopes (δ¹³C) in the planktonic Globigerinoides ruber extracted from the GT90/3 shallow water Ionian sea core, dated with high precision. It is commonly accepted that δ¹³C variations in symbiontic foraminifera mainly record the effects of productivity and of photosynthetic activity, varying with the ambient light level. Therefore from this time series we can deduce information on the sea surface illumination at the time of the planktonic foraminifera growth. The profile (359 points) covers the period 590–1979 AD, with a resolution of 3.87 years and it is an extension of the time series (215 points) previously published in this journal. The spectral analysis of the longer time series confirms the presence of the 11 y signal, with amplitude 0.08‰ (peak-to-trough), found in the shorter time series in phase with the sunspot solar cycle; furthermore it shows the presence of two centennial cycles of 100 and 200 years, with amplitude 0.08‰ and 0.02‰ respectively. These components are identified at high significance level by Monte Carlo singular spectrum analysis (MC-SSA). A comparison between the δ¹³C profile and the historical aurorae series (600–1500 AD) shows that the long-term δ¹³C variations are at least partially generated by the solar activity modulation and in phase with the solar output, as represented by the solar wind interaction with the magnetosphere.     

Solar terrestrial effects of two distinct types

The occurrence frequencies or fluxes of most of the solar phenomena show a 11-year cycle like that of sunspots. However, the average characteristics of these phenomena may not show a 11-year cycle. Among the terrestrial parameters, some related directly to the occurrence frequencies of solar phenomena (for example, ionospheric number densities related to solar EUV fluxes which show 11-year cycle like sunspots) show 11-year cycles, including the double-peak structures near sunspot maxima. Other terrestrial parameters related to average characteristics may not show 11-year sunspot cycles. For example, long-term geomagnetic activity (Ap or Dst indices) is related to the average interplanetary solar wind speed V and the total magnetic field B. The average values of V depend not on the occurrence frequency of ICMEs and/or CIRs as such, but on the relative proportion of slow and high-speed events in them. Hence, V values (and Ap values) in any year could be low, normal or high irrespective of the phase of the 11-year cycle, except that during sunspot minimum, V (and Ap) values are also low. However, 2–3 years after the solar minimum (well before sunspot maximum), V values increase, oscillate near a high level for several years, and may even increase further during the declining phase of sunspot activity, due to increased influence of high-speed CIRs (corotating interplanetary regions). Thus, Ap would have no fixed relationship with sunspot activity. If some terrestrial parameter shows a 11-year cycle, chances are that the solar connection is through the occurrence frequencies (and not average characteristics) of some solar parameter.     

Energetic ion observations during comet Giacobini-Zinner encounter

The Energetic Particle Anisotropy Spectrometer (EPAS) on the ICE spacecraft observed large fluxes of energetic ions (E > 65-keV) for a period of one day prior to encounter with comet Giacobini-Zinner to several days afterwards. These observations permit the study of the way in which cometary atoms and molecules are “picked-up” and accelerated by the solar wind flow, such that the flow becomes mass-loaded and slowed in the vicinity of the comet. The ion bulk flow within the mass-loaded region can also be studied together with the nature of the boundary between this region and the outer “pick-up” region. Finally it is also possible to study ion motion close to, and within, the induced magnetotail of the comet.     

Acceleration and transport of energeticparticles at CME-driven shocks

Historically, solar energetic particle (SEP) events are classified in two classes as “impulsive” and “gradual”. Whether there is a clear distinction between the two classes is still a matter of debate, but it is now commonly accepted that in large “gradual” SEP events, Fermi acceleration, also known as diffusive shock acceleration, is the underlying acceleration mechanism. At shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), particles are accelerated diffusively at the shock and often reach > MeV energies (and perhaps up to GeV energies). As a CME-driven shock propagates, expands and weakens, the accelerated particles can escape ahead of the shock into the interplanetary medium. These escaping energized particles then propagate along the interplanetary magnetic field, experiencing only weak scattering from fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In this paper, we use a Monte-Carlo approach to study the transport of energetic particles escaping from a CME-driven shock. We present particle spectra observed at 1 AU. We also discuss the particle “crossing number” at 1AU and its implication to particle anisotropy. Based on previous models of particle acceleration at CME-driven shocks, our simulation allows us to investigate various characteristics of energetic particles arriving at various distances from the sun. This provides us an excellent basis for understanding the observations of high-energy particles made at 1 AU by ACE and WIND.     

Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Phobos-Grunt: Russian sample return mission

As an important milestone in the exploration of Mars and small bodies, a new generation space vehicle “Phobos-Grunt” is planned to be launched by the Russian Aviation and Space Agency. The project is optimized around a Phobos sample return mission and follow up missions targeted to study some main asteroid belt bodies, NEOs and short period comets. The principal constraint is use of the “Soyuz-Fregat” rather than the “Proton” launcher to accomplish these challenging goals. The vehicle design incorporates innovative SEP technology involving electrojet engines that allowed us to increase significantly the mission's energetic capabilities, as well as highly autonomous on-board systems. Basic criteria underlining the “Phobos-Grunt” mission scenario, scientific objectives and rationale including Mars observations during the vehicle's insertion into Mars orbit and Phobos approach maneuvers, are discussed and an opportunity for international cooperation is suggested.     

Hydrogen coma of comet P/Halley

The main molecular processes to produce the hydrogen comae of comets are now well known: Water, the main constituent of cometary atmospheres, is photodissociated by the solar ultraviolet radiation to form the high (20 km s⁻¹) and low (8 km s⁻¹) velocity components of the atomic hydrogen. The hydrogen clouds of various fresh comets have been observed in 1216Å by a number of spacecrafts. Ultraviolet observations of short period comets are, however, rather rare. Consequently Comet P/Halley in this apparition is a good object to obtain new physics of the hydrogen coma. Strong breathing of the hydrogen coma of this comet found by “Suisei” provides just such an example. The rotational period of Comet Halley's nucleus, its activity in the form of outbursts alone, and the position of jet sources etc. are determined from the breathing phenomena. Atomic hydrogen from organic compounds with a velocity of 11 km s⁻¹ play an important role in that analysis. The time variations of the water production rate of Comet Halley during this apparition observed by various spacecrafts appear to be in agreement with each other and are about 1.5–2 times larger than the standard model. The difficulty of the calibration problem was emphasized.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

HEAO-1 and BBXRT non-source X-ray observations

A more appropriate title for this talk would have been “Measurements of Large Scale Structure from X-ray Background Fluctuations”. While it has long been recognized that the X-ray Background (XRB) is primarily of a cosmological origin (with z < a few), it has recently become apparent that surface brightness fluctuations in the surveys of the XRB can be used to trace the distribution of matter in much the same way as complete catalogs of individual objects. The distance which is probed is related to the angular resolution of the detector; for the HEAO-1 A2 experiment, which provides the best all-sky data base for the XRB in the 2–20 keV band, the effective depth is a few 100 Mpc.