Forecasting the geomagnetic activity of the Dst index using multiscale radial basis function networks

The Dst index is a key parameter which characterises the disturbance of the geomagnetic field in magnetic storms. Modelling of the Dst index is thus very important for the analysis of the geomagnetic field. A data-based modelling approach, aimed at obtaining efficient models from limited input–output observational data, provides a powerful tool for analysing and forecasting geomagnetic activities including the prediction of the Dst index. In this study, the process of the Dst index is treated to be a structure-unknown system, where the solar wind parameter (VBs) and the solar wind dynamic pressure (P) are the system inputs, and the Dst index is the system output. A novel multiscale RBF (MSRBF) network is introduced to represent such a two-input and single-output system, where the Dst index is related to the solar wind parameter and the dynamic pressure, via a hybrid network model consisting of two submodels: a linear part that reflects the linear relationship between the output and the inputs, and a nonlinear part that captures the effect of the interacting contribution of past observations of the inputs and the output, on the current output. The proposed MSRBF network can easily be converted into a linear-in-the-parameters form and the training of the linear network model can easily be implemented using a forward orthogonal regression (FOR) algorithm. One advantage of the new MSRBF network, compared with traditional single scale RBF networks, is that the new network is more flexible for describing complex nonlinear dynamical systems.     

The ion energy spectra in the ring current during the geomagnetic storm of February, 1986

Using data from the CHEM instrument on the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft, we follow the development of the ring current energy spectra (1–300 keV/e) of the ion species H⁺, O⁺, He⁺, and He⁺⁺ in the post-noon and pre-noon local time sectors during the geomagnetic storm of February 1986. By comparing displays of phase space density, f, vs. magnetic moment, μ, we can distinguish between enhancements due to newly injected ions and those due to adiabatic energization of a pre-existing population. In both the local time sectors, the initial drop in Dst is associated with enhanced phase space densities of all species. The spectra observed during the pass when the Dst dropped to a minimem of −312 nT show a strong local time asymmetry. In the post-noon sector, the spectra showed the influx of a new population of ions, rich in O⁺ and He⁺⁺. In the pre-noon sector, the flux increase was consistent with adiabatic energization of the ion population injected earlier in the storm. This local time difference is consistent with a greatly enhanced convection electric field which brings a new population from the magnetotail to the post-noon, but not the pre-noon local time sector.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

Numerical simulations of the radiance from the comet 46P/Wirtanen in the various configurations of the measurements during “Rosetta” mission

The work we present deals with the spectrometric measurements of VIRTIS instrument of the Comet P/Wirtanen planned for the Rosetta mission. This spectrometer can monitor (VIRTIS M channel: 0.250μm – 0.980μm; Δκ=20cm⁻¹; 0.980 – 5.0 μm; Δκ = 5cm⁻¹; VIRTIS H channel: 2.0 μm – 5.0 μm; Δκ=2cm⁻¹) the nucleus and the coma in order to provide a general picture of coma's composition, the production of gas and dust, the relationship of coma production to surface composition and the structure and variation of mineralogy of the nucleus surface. During the mission the observation conditions of the spectroscopic investigation change due to different relative positions spacecraft/comet, and to the different illumination conditions of the surface at various distances of the comet to the Sun. The nucleus surface is continuously modified by the ice sublimation accompanied by gas and dust emission. Consequently the surface also its spectrophotometric properties changes and their monitoring can give a new insight. The important role of simulations is to predict the results of measurements in various experimental condition what, in the future, can help in interpretation of the measured data.

In this paper the first results of our simulation the radiance from the comet in the 0.25–5.0μm spectral range at two distances from the Sun (1AU and 3AU) are shown. The distance between the Rosetta orbiter and the nucleus surface as well as the sun zenith angles are taken into account according to the Rosetta mission phases. In fact the surface and coma properties vary along the comet orbit, and should be taken into account in our calculations. The optical parameters of the dust on the surface (e.g. reflectance) and in the coma (e.g. Q_ext) were calculated from optical constants of possible comet analogues. The thermodynamic parameters of the comet are taken from the models of comet evolution. Through this kind of modelling it is possible to identify the surface characteristics in spectra of the radiation from the surface of nucleus transmitted through the coma loaded with dust and gases.

Even if the “Rosetta mission” is postponed, with the consequence of a target change, we think that our idea and the method used for the simulations can be useful also for the new Rosetta target - the comet 67P/Churyumov Gerasimenko.     

Modeling of artificial plasma “bubble” in ionosphere

Results of a combination of radio-crossing and in situ measurements of plasma density in an artificial plasma “bubble” in the ionosphere are presented. Shaped — charge barium injection was made at short distance (≤50 m) to plasma diagnostics on the rocket. After injection the rocket passed through expanding plasma shell. Plasma density depletion inside was more than one order and plasma enhancements on the boundary about 3–5 times that of background. When the rocket passed the shell and went away by 2.1 km an abrupt drop of telemetry signal level (≤ 65 dB) was registered though plasma density was not more than 3×10³sm⁻³. An estimation of high frequency signal refraction on the plasma shell is in good accordance with refraction data of geostationary satellite signals on equatorial bubbles.     

The dark matter halo structure of “fossil” groups candidates

We investigated properties of four isolated giant elliptical galaxies with extended X-ray halo using ASCA data. The derived size of X-ray halo, X-ray luminosity, and gravitational mass of the dark halo are unusually large those of X-ray halo of a single galaxy, but are typical for X-ray halos of groups and poor clusters of galaxies. The measured temperatures and abundances of the X-ray halo gas in these galaxies are also similar to those of the groups and poor clusters. Based on these results we identified these galaxies as “isolated X-ray overluminous elliptical galaxy” (IOLEG). The radial profiles of dark halo in these objects were derived from X-ray data. It is found that some are similar to those of compact groups while others are the same as those of normal ellipticals. The dark halos of lOLEGs are thus indistinguishable from those of groups (and poor clusters), which appears to be consistent with a widely believed idea that lOLEGs are a product of dynamical evolution of a compact group. However, mass-to-light ratios of IOLEGs (M₂₀₀/L_B  100–1000) are far greater than those of Hickson compact groups M₂₀₀/L_B  40–60). Since it is hard to consider that total optical luminosity of a compact group decreases by an order of magnitude in the course of dynamical evolution, such difference in the observed mass-to-light ratio between IOLEGs and Hickson compact groups strongly suggests that most IOLEGs have not evolved from compact groups which are observed at present.     

Type I supernovae origin: “Dualistic” hypothesis

Stars that explode as Type I Supernovae (SNI) are white dwarfs with masses practically equal to the Chandrasekhar limit M_ch. These white dwarfs forme either as a result of gas overflow onto a degenerate component in a binary system or due to the evolution of nuclei of the stars whose mass, on the main sequence, was 3 to 7 M_o. The masses of their nuclei are quite close to M_ch. It is convenient to consider three types of stellar evolution 1) “hyperbolic”: masses of nuclei formed as a result of evolution are > M_ch; such evolution ends in a Type II Supernova (SNII) outburst; 2) “parabolic” - masses of nuclei ≈ M_ch, with the evolution ending in an SNI outburst; 3) “elliptical” with nuclei masses < M_ch. The latter type of evolution leads to the formation of planetary nebulae and white dwarfs. A new hypothesis is suggested that explains more frequent occurrence of SNI in irregular galaxies by flashes of star formation.     

Results of cosmic radiation dose field measurements aboard the “Salyut-6” orbital station

During the 3rd main expedition on board the “Salyut-6” orbital station in 1979 the integral characteristics of cosmic radiation were measured in various positions inside the manned modules (experiment “Integral”). Measurements were performed with thermoluminescent dosimeters, photographic films and solid state plastic detectors supplied for the experiment by specialists of the USSR, Bulgaria, Hungary, GDR and Romania. The dose gradient inside the manned modules of the station amounted to 70 % for long intervals of time. During the experimental period the dose rate inside the station was 15 to 30 mrad per day. The mean flux of particles with z 6 and LET 200 keV/μm was found to be 0.22 cm⁻² day⁻¹.     

Classification of solar wind structures and intense geomagnetic storm alarms with self-organizing maps

Intense geomagnetic storms (D_st < −100 nT) usually occur when a large interplanetary duskward-electric field (with Ey > 5 mV m⁻¹) lasts for more than 3 h. In this article, a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network is used to recognize different patterns in the temporal variation of hourly averaged Ey data and to predict intense storms. The input parameters of SOM are the hourly averaged Ey data over 3 h. The output layer of the SOM has a total of 400 neurons. The hourly Ey data are calculated from solar wind data, which are provided by NSSDC OMNIWeb and ACE spacecraft and contain information on 143 intense storms and a fair number of moderate storms, weak storms and quiet periods between September 3, 1966 and June 30, 2002. Our results show that SOM is able to classify solar wind structures and therefore to give timely intense storm alarms. In our SOM, 21 neurons out of 400 are identified to be closely associated with the intense storms and they successfully predict 134 intense storms out of the 143 ones selected. In particular, there are 14 neurons for which, if one or more of them are present, the occurrence probability of intense storms is about 90%. In addition, several of these 14 neurons can predict big magnetic storm (D_st  −180 nT). In summary, our method achieves high accuracy in predicting intense geomagnetic storms and could be applied in space environment prediction.     

Solar wind dependence of the Pc1 wave activity

There are a host of factors influencing the excitation of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations, which are ULF waves in the frequency range between 0.2 and 5 Hz. We have studied carefully the dependence of the pearl-type Pc1 activity at Sodankylä, Finland (L = 5.1) on the plasma density N in front of the magnetosphere, the bulk velocity V of the solar wind, and the intensity B of the IMF. The result is as follows: high values of N and reduced values of V are favorable to appearance of Pc1, whereas the dependence of Pc1 activity on B is practically absent. We also show that the probability of Pc1 occurrence decreases with the interplanetary electric field, and increases with solar wind impact pressure and with the plasma to magnetic pressure ratio “beta”.     

Opacity effects in soft X-ray spectral lines of the solar corona

Current literature suggests that several lines in the soft X-ray portion of the coronal spectrum may not be optically thin. Here, we confirm the results of Schmelz et al. (1996) who find no significant opacity effects for three of the brightest non-iron resonance lines in this part of the spectrum — O VIII at 18.97Å, Ne IX at 13.45Å, and Mg XI at 9.17Å. A comparison is made between each of these lines and an optically thin “reference” line produced by the same element in the same ionization state — O VIII at 15.18Å, Ne IX at 13.55Å, and Mg XI at 9.23Å. In the latter two cases, the comparison line is the intersystem line of the He-like triplet. 33 spectra from the Solar Maximum Mission Flat Crystal Spectrometer are analyzed, all of which were obtained from non-flaring, quasi-stable active regions.     

Space radiation quality factor investigations with “NAUSICAA”-device on board the “MIR” space station

The estimation of radiation quality factor in space flights is a serious problem of space dosimetry. The solution of this problem is based on LET-spectra measurements. The “NAUSICAA”-device installed on the “MIR” station has a detector with a large geometric factor, that gives the possibility of measuring LET-spectra with sufficient statistic in relatively short time interval and hence the corresponding Q. LET-spectra are accumulated through 24 hour periods and equivalent dose (H), absorbed dose (D), quality factor and flux (F) are measured every 10 minutes. The obtained data permit the estimate of the diurnal Q and Q in South Atlantic Anomaly. These values vary in the range of 1.4 – 2.2. The analysis of these values including their comparison with the calculated results is given in this paper.     

Evaluation of gravity-dependent membrane potential shift in Paramecium.

It is still debated whether or not gravity can stimulate unicellular organisms. This question may be settled by revealing changes in the membrane potential in a manner depending on the gravitational forces imposed on the cell. We estimated the gravity-dependent membrane potential shift to be about 1 mV G⁻¹ for Paramecium showing gravikinesis at 1–5 G, on the basis of measurements of gravity-induced changes in active propulsion and those of propulsive velocity in solutions, in which the membrane potential has been measured electrophysiologically. The shift in membrane potential to this extent may occur from mechanoreceptive changes in K⁺ or Ca²⁺ conductance by about 1% and might be at the limit of electrophysiological measurement using membrane potential-sensitive dyes. Our measurements of propulsive velocity vs membrane potential also suggested that the reported propulsive force of Paramecium measured in a solution of graded densities with the aid of a video centrifuge microscope at 350 G was 11 times as large as that for −29 mV, i.e., the resting membrane potential at [K⁺]_o = 1 mM and [Ca²⁺]_o = 1 mM, and, by extrapolation, that Paramecium was hyperpolarized to −60 mV by gravity stimulation of 100- G equivalent, the value corrected by considering the reduction of density difference between the interior and exterior of the cell in the graded density solution. The estimated shift of the membrane potential from −29 mV to −60 mV by 100- G equivalent stimulation, i.e., 0.3 mV G⁻¹, could reach the magnitude entirely feasible to be measured more directly.     

Modeling of “gradual” solar energeticparticle events using a stochastic differential equation method

We have modeled “gradual” solar energetic particle events through numerical simulations using a StochasticDifferential Equation (SDE) method. We consider that energetic particle events are roughly divided into two groups: (1) where the shock was driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with large solar flares, and (2) where they have no related solar events apart from the CMEs. (The detailed classification of energetic particle events was discussed in our previous paper.) What we call “gradual” solar energetic particle events belong to the former group. Particles with energies greater than 10 MeV are observed within several hours after the occurrence of flares and CMEs in many gradual events. By applying the SDE method coupled with particle splitting to diffusive acceleration, we found that an injection of high energy particles is necessary for early enhancement of such a high-energy proton flux and that it should not be presumed that the solar wind particles act as the seed population.     

Measurements of high-energy neutron and proton fluxes on-board “Mir-Spectr” orbital complex

The measurements of high-energy neutron (with energies 30–300 MeV) and proton (with energies 1–200 MeV) fluxes are being conducted on-board “Mir-Spectr” orbital complex. Neutrons are detected by the undirected (FOV 4π sr) scintillator spectrometer, consisting of 4 identical CsI(Tl) detector units (the effective area for neutrons 30 cm²). The gamma-quanta, which can be also detected by this instrument, are separated from neutrons by the analysis of the scintillator output pulse shape. To exclude registration of charged particles an anticoincidence plastic scintillator shield is realized in each detector unit. The proton fluxes are measured by the telescope based on 3 semiconductor detectors with small geometry factor (1 cm²×sr). As the first result of the experiment the upper limit of the integral flux of local and albedo neutrons in the equatorial region (L<1.1) was estimated. The results of this measurements can be useful for the radiation security. Also, the neutrons of solar flares can be detected in this experiment.     

Experimental investigations of quasistable radiation belts formed after solar proton events in September–October 1989 and March 1991 based on measurements made by “Liulin” dosimeter-radiometer on board the “MIR” space station

Since 1988 high sensitivity dosimeter-radiometer “Liulin” has been installed on board the MIR space station. Device measured absorbed dose rate and flux of penetrating particles. Results of measurements showed that after powerful solar proton events (SPE) September–October, 1989 and March, 1991 additional quasistable radiation belts were formed in the near earth space within the interval L=1.8−3.0. These “new” belts were observed as an additional maximums in flux (and sometimes dose) channels when crossing the SAA region. “New” belts were quasi stable and existed at least several months, decaying slightly after SPE. Dose to flux ratio analysis showed that major components of these belts were energetic electrons and protons arising in connection with preceding SPEs.     

MIRAX: a Brazilian X-ray astronomy satellite mission

We describe the “Monitor e Imageador de Raios-X” (MIRAX), an X-ray astronomy satellite mission proposed by the high-energy astrophysics group at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) in Brazil to the Brazilian Space Agency. MIRAX is an international collaboration that includes, besides INPE, the University of California San Diego, the University of Tübingen in Germany, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Space Research Organization Netherlands. The payload of MIRAX will consist of two identical hard X-ray cameras (10–200 keV) and one soft X-ray camera (2–28 keV), both with angular resolution of 5–7^′. The basic objective of MIRAX is to carry out continuous broadband imaging spectroscopy observations of a large source sample (9 months/yr) in the central Galactic plane region. This will allow the detection, localization, possible identification, and spectral/temporal study of the entire history of transient phenomena to be carried out in one single mission. MIRAX will have sensitivities of 5 mCrab/day in the 2–10 keV band (2 times better than the All Sky Monitor on Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer) and 2.6 mCrab/day in the 10–100 keV band (40 times better than the Earth Occultation technique of the Burst and Transient Source Experiment on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory). The MIRAX spacecraft will weigh about 200 kg and is expected to be launched in a low-altitude (600 km) circular equatorial orbit around 2007/2008.     

Analysis of the nucleus and circumnuclear area of comet Halley with the “I.K.S.” infrared sounder from the “Vega” flyby probes

The “Vega” Soviet flyby probes to comet Halley will carry a French infrared sounder, called “I.K.S.”. In order to assess its observing capabilities, a theoretical model of the comet infrared emission was constructed. We show how the experiment results will be used to derive the nucleus size and radiative properties, and to study the distribution of gas and dust in the inner coma and circumnuclear area. A preliminary discussion is made of the relevance of the data in instances where the cometary phenomena would be more complex than assumed in the model.     

Response of the ionospheric F-region in the Brazilian sector during the super geomagnetic storm in April 2000 observed by GPS

The response of the ionospheric F-region in the equatorial and low latitude regions in the Brazilian sector during the super geomagnetic storm on 06–07 April 2000 has been studied in the present investigation. The geomagnetic storm reached a minimum D_st of −288 nT at 0100 UT on 07 April. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from GPS observations obtained at Imperatriz (5.5°S, 47.5°W; IMPZ), Brasília (15.9°S, 47.9°W; BRAZ), Presidente Prudente (22.12°S, 51.4°W; UEPP), and Porto Alegre (30.1°S, 51.1°W; POAL) during the period 05–08 April. Also, several GPS-based TEC maps are presented from the global GPS network, showing widespread and drastic TEC changes during the different phases of the geomagnetic storm. In addition, ion density measurements on-board the satellite Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F15 orbiting at an altitude of 840 km and the first Republic of China satellite (ROCSAT-1) orbiting at an altitude of 600 km are presented. The observations indicate that one of the orbits of the DMSP satellite is fairly close to the 4 GPS stations and both the DMSP F15 ion-density plots and the phase fluctuations from GPS observations show no ionospheric irregularities in the Brazilian sector before 2358 UT on the night of 06–07 April 2000. During the fast decrease of D_st on 06 April, there is a prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin resulting in decrease of VTEC at IMPZ, an equatorial station and large increase in VTEC at POAL, a low latitude station. This resulted in strong phase fluctuations on the night of 06–07 April, up to POAL. During the daytime on 07 April during the recovery phase, the VTEC observations show positive ionospheric storm at all the GPS stations, from IMPZ to POAL, and the effect increasing from IMPZ to POAL. This is possibly linked to the equatorward directed meridional wind. During the daytime on 08 April (the recovery phase continues), the VTEC observations show very small negative ionospheric storm at IMPZ but the positive ionospheric storm effect is observed from BRAZ to POAL possibly linked to enhancement of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly.     

Global characteristics of ionospheric electric fields and disturbances during the first hours of magnetic storms

The ionospheric plasma density can be significantly disturbed during magnetic storms. In the conventional scenario of ionospheric storms, the negative storm phases with plasma density decreases are caused by neutral composition changes, and the positive storm phases with plasma density increases are often related to atmospheric gravity waves. However, recent studies show that the global redistribution of the ionospheric plasma is dominated primarily by electric fields during the first hours of magnetic storms. In this paper, we present the measurements of ionospheric disturbances by the DMSP satellites and GPS network during the magnetic storm on 6 April 2000. The DMSP measurements include the F region ion velocity and density at the altitude of ∼840 km, and the GPS receiver network provides total electron content (TEC) measurements. The storm-time ionospheric disturbances show the following characteristics. The plasma density is deeply depleted in a latitudinal range of ∼20° over the equatorial region in the evening sector, and the depletions represent plasma bubbles. The ionospheric plasma density at middle latitudes (20°–40° magnetic latitudes) is significantly increased. The dayside TEC is increased simultaneously over a large latitudinal range. An enhanced TEC band forms in the afternoon sector, goes through the cusp region, and enters the polar cap. All the observed ionospheric disturbances occur within 1–5 h from the storm sudden commencement. The observations suggest that penetration electric fields play a major role in the rapid generation of equatorial plasma bubbles and the simultaneous increases of the dayside TEC within the first 2 h during the storm main phase. The ionospheric disturbances at later times may be caused by the combination of penetration electric fields and neutral wind dynamo process.