Robustness analysis metrics for worldwide airport network: A comprehensive study

Robustness of transportation networks is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. This paper investigates the resilience of global air transportation from a complex network point of view, with focus on attacking strategies in the airport network, i.e., to remove airports from the sys-tem and see what could affect the air traffic system from a passenger's perspective. Specifically, we identify commonalities and differences between several robustness measures and attacking strate-gies, proposing a novel notion of functional robustness: unaffected passengers with rerouting. We apply twelve attacking strategies to the worldwide airport network with three weights, and eval-uate three robustness measures. We find that degree and Bonacich based attacks harm passenger weighted network most. Our evaluation is geared toward a unified view on air transportation net-work attack and serves as a foundation on how to develop effective mitigation strategies.     

Empirical analysis of airport network and critical airports

Air transport network, or airport network, is a complex network involving numerous airports. Effective management of the air transport system requires an in-depth understanding of the roles of airports in the network. Whereas knowledge on air transport network properties has been improved greatly, methods to find critical airports in the network are still lacking. In this paper, we present methods to investigate network properties and to identify critical airports in the network. A novel network model is proposed with airports as nodes and the correlations between traffic flow of airports as edges. Spectral clustering algorithm is developed to classify airports. Spatial distribution characteristics and intraclass correlation of different categories of airports are carefully analyzed. The analyses based on the fluctuation trend of distance-correlation and power spectrum of time series are performed to examine the self-organized criticality of the network. The results indicate that there is one category of airports which dominates the self-organized critical state of the network. Six airports in this category are found to be the most important ones in the Chinese air transport network. The flights delay occurred in these six airports can propagate to the other airports, having huge impact on the operation characteristics of the entire network. The methods proposed here taking traffic dynamics into account are capable of identifying critical airports in the whole air transport network.     

机场协同决策的应用历史与研究趋势综述

机场协同决策可以有效提升机场的运行效率,进而提升整个民航运输网络的运行效率。本文查阅整理了机场协同决策的相关标准、政策文件与研究论文,梳理了机场协同决策的发展历程以及国内外学界业界有关协同决策的研究及应用现状;分析讨论了机场协同决策未来的发展趋势与当前时期协同决策所面临的挑战;同时基于我国的实际情况,给出了一些机场协同决策的发展建议;总结了机场协同决策的理论与应用价值以及协同决策在我国面临的问题与挑战。本文研究可以为提升机场与整个航空交通网络的运行效率与经济效益提供理论支撑和依据。     

An evolutionary computational framework for capacity-safety trade-off in an air transportation network

Airspace safety and airport capacity are two key challenges to sustain the growth in Air Transportation. In this paper, we model the Air Transportation Network as two sub-networks of airspace and airports, such that the safety and capacity of the overall Air Transportation network emerge from the interaction between the two. We propose a safety-capacity trade-off approach,using a computational framework, where the two networks can inter-act and the trade-off between capacity and safety in an Air Transport Network can be established. The framework comprise of an evolutionary computation based air traffic scenario generation using a flow capacity estimation module(for capacity), Collision risk estimation module(for safety) and an air traffic simulation module(for evaluation). The proposed methodology to evolve air traffic scenarios such that it minimizes collision risk for given capacity estimation was tested on two different air transport network topologies(random and small-world) with the same number of airports. Experimental results indicate that though airspace collision risk increases almost linearly with the increasing flow(flow intensity) in the corresponding airport network, the critical flow depend on the underlying network configuration. It was also found that, in general, the capacity upper bound depends not only on the connectivity among airports and their individual performances but also the configuration of waypoints and mid-air interactions among conflicts. Results also show that airport network can accommodate more traffic in terms of capacity but the corresponding airspace network cannot accommodate the resulting traffic flow due to the bounds on collision risk.     

空中交通相依网络的脆弱性研究

机场、航路和管制扇区构成空中交通相依网络,节点在受到扰动时,网络运输性能下降,引发网络脆弱性。提出一种空中交通相依网络脆弱性的度量方法,首先构建机场网络、航路网络和管制扇区网络3个层网络,基于空中交通管理规则与层网络间的逻辑连接关系,建立空中交通相依网络模型。在随机扰动和蓄意扰动节点两种不同失效模式下,采用最大连通度和结构熵两个指标,并给出了相应算法,分析相依网络的结构脆弱性;创建流量熵和交通流损失比指标,设计了相应算法,研究相依网络的功能脆弱性。研究结果表明,随机扰动对空中交通相依网络影响更大;网络的结构脆弱源与功能脆弱源是机场网络;网络的脆弱性与层网络间的连接方式和层网络的交通量不匹配有关。     

空中交通网络模体识别及子图结构韧性评估

研究空中交通网络的结构特征是理解网络性质的重要手段。从局部角度出发,以构成空中交通网络的子图结构为研究对象,对其模体特性进行识别。通过对子图浓度在外界扰动下的变化情况进行分析,提出子图结构韧性概念以表征网络拓扑结构的动态演化规律。以华东地区空中交通网络为例,对低阶子图结构进行了模体特性识别,并对不同扰动下子图结构韧性的变化情况进行评估。实证结果表明,子图结构的模体特性符合空中交通网络的实际连通度需求;在网络受扰动及恢复过程中,子图相对浓度较为稳定,子图结构韧性和网络宏观结构变化之间较为一致。对于揭示节点间连接的偏好及航路结构合理性,网络受扰动及恢复过程背后的底层机制,网络整体与局部结构之间的关系等有着一定的研究意义。     

基于Agent模型的机场网络延误预测

准确可靠的机场网络航班延误预测是科学认知空中交通运行态势,动态精准实施国家空域系统容流协同调配策略的重要依据。提出了基于Agent的机场网络延误模型,表征机场网络系统中各元素及子系统间的交互作用下的延误特征涌现。针对机场节点动态容量、预计起飞时间、最小飞行与周转时间等Agent模型中的关键参数,适应性选用了贝叶斯估计、模糊k近邻等数据挖掘方法建立参数模型,并采用2015—2017年全美历史航班和气象数据进行训练学习。为综合评价模型性能及泛化能力,选取全美2018年3个不同延误程度的典型日进行测试。实验结果表明,在全美34个核心机场组成的网络中,各节点在4小时预测区间内延误最大误差不过27.9 min,其中约80%的节点误差小于5 min,验证了所提延误预测模型在时空范围内的准确性和稳健性特征。另外,通过与其他模型对比,展示了本模型优良的延误预测性能。     

Evolution of airports from a network perspective——An analytical concept

Analyzing airports' role in global air transportation and monitoring their development over time provides an additional perspective on the dynamics of network evolution. In order to understand the different roles airports can play in the network an integrated and multi-dimensional approach is needed. Therefore, an approach to airport classification through hierarchi-cal clustering considering several parameters from network theory is presented in this paper. By applying a 29 year record of global flight data and calculating the conditional transition probabil-ities the results are displayed as an evolution graph similar to a discrete-time Markov chain. With this analytical concept the meaning of airports is analyzed from a network perspective and a new airport taxonomy is established. The presented methodology allows tracking the development of airports from certain categories into others over time. Results show that airports of equal classes run through similar stages of development with a limited number of alternatives, indicating clear evolutionary patterns. Apart from giving an overview of the results the paper illustrates the exact data-driven approach and suggests an evaluation scheme. The methodology can help the public and industry sector to make informed strategy decisions when it comes to air transportation infras-tructure.     

珠三角机场群协同发展定位分析

目前我国各区域机场群内各机场功能定位趋同化严重,严重的同向定位导致各机场之间恶性竞争。尤其是地理位置相距较近的机场,旅客有多种选择。各个机场开辟相似的航线结构,都趋于构建大中型航空枢纽。以珠三角机场群为例,从旅客运力的角度构建趋同模型,提出趋同系数评价方法,对各机场进行区分定位。实行梯度定位,使该机场群内各机场之间协同发展,避免不必要的航线网络竞争,同时能够减轻空中交通管理的巨大压力,进一步促进航空运输的良性发展。     

基于地面等待策略的航班时刻规划方法

地面等待是空中交通管理中普遍应用的一种方法。根据机场实际容量的约束,从地面等待策略的思想提出了航班时刻规划专家系统,即通过修改航班时刻表中高峰时段的航班,以达到平滑交通流量的目的。最后根据全国航班时刻表,选择了10个主要的繁忙机场进行了仿真计算,验证了方法的实用性。     

亚洲10大枢纽机场运营绩效预测研究

提高机场未来运营绩效是可持续发展的关键,对其进行准确预测是改善机场运营绩效的基础。考虑到突发事件的影响,单纯定量预测存在预测失真问题,本文采用定性定量结合分析法预测亚洲 10 大枢纽机场“十四五”期间的运营绩效,对比灰色模型定量分析法和 ARIMA 模型的预测结果,并对机场运营绩效预测结果进行分析。结果表明：灰色模型定量分析法比 ARIMA 模型更适合预测机场运营绩效;与实际统计值相比,灰色模型预测的误差都小于 4%,预测精度较好;采用定性定量结合分析法得到了机场未来运营绩效预测的结果,比单纯定量预测更符合实际情况。     

飞机性能降级对民机在高原机场起飞的风险研究

我国西部地区修建了很多高原机场,飞机在高原机场会出现性能衰减,对飞行安全有影响。为提高高原机场起飞的安全性,首先,在分析影响高原机场飞机起飞性能因素的基础上,从外界环境的变化和飞机故障两个方面研究飞机性能降级对飞机在高原机场起飞的影响。其次,梳理性能降级后飞机在高原机场起飞的风险,总结高原机场起飞风险管控流程。最后,结合高原机场运行实际,制定风险管控措施,研究可知：1)飞机性能降级在高原机场安全起飞的影响更明显;2)当叠加恶劣天气后,会加深飞机性能降级的影响;3)起飞性能计算是解决飞机性能降级的重要措施;4)航空公司应制定完善的风险管控流程和措施,应对飞机性能降级后能在高原机场安全飞起,并根据实际情况持续优化流程和措施;5)做好相关运行控制团队的管理是提高工作效率的重要举措。     

基于功能脆弱性的空中交通相依网络流量分配

依据空中交通管理与航班运行规则,采用复杂网络理论构建由机场、航路与管制扇区组成的相依网络模型,建立不同扰动策略的影响规则,提出以网络流量熵和交通流损失比变化率为指标识别网络功能脆弱性。并以网络总流量熵最小为目标,建立基于改进遗传算法的网络流量协调分配策略,以降低空中交通相依网络的脆弱性。以民航华北地区空域为原型,发现了其相依网络脆弱性表现规律和脆弱源,采用遗传算法求解网络流量分配方案,优化结果降低了网络总熵值和功能脆弱性,其中机场网络流量分配后效果最为显著,验证了方法的有效性,研究结果可为空中流量管理决策提供一定的理论支撑。     

机场飞行区资源调度问题研究(三)：研究热点与挑战

全球航空运输需求的持续和迅猛增长,使得诸多大型繁忙机场正面临高频次飞行冲突、大范围空域拥堵、大面积航班延误等一系列严峻问题。本文聚焦飞行区资源调度的研究热点与挑战问题,为机场飞行区资源调度问题研究系列之三。从多维视角对飞行区资源调度问题进行详细分类,梳理近几年在容量预测、跑道配置、态势感知、空地调度、性能权衡等方面的研究热点,并对该领域目前面临的主要挑战进行综合分析。研究成果旨在为机场运行管理理论与应用的可持续发展提供科学指引。     

Percolation transition in temporal airport network

The air transportation system has a critical impact on the global economy. While the system reliability is essential for the operational management of air traffic, it remains challenging to understand the network reliability of the air transportation system. This paper focuses on how the global air traffic is integrated from local scale along with operational time. The integration process of air traffic into a temporally connected network is viewed as percolation process by increasing the integration time constantly. The critical integration time T_P which is found during the integration process can measure the global reliability of air traffic. The critical links at T_P are also identified, the delay of which will influence the global integration of the airport network. These findings may provide insights on the reliability management for the temporal airport network.     

内蒙古阿拉善盟民航客运需求分析与预测

阿拉善盟地形地貌复杂,陆路交通不便,计划建设民用机场,以拉动地区经济发展,因此,需要对阿盟航空运输需求进行预测。由于缺乏历史数据,提出横向对比建模分析方法,对阿盟未来的航空运输需求进行预测,模型可靠性已经过现有运营机场的数据验证,研究成果可为阿盟建设民用机场、开通航线的相关决策提供参考。     

Air route network optimization in fragmented airspace based on cellular automata

Air route network optimization,one of the essential parts of the airspace planning,is an effective way to optimize airspace resources,increase airspace capacity,and alleviate air traffic con gestion.However,little has been done on the optimization of air route network in the fragmented airspace caused by prohibited,restricted,and dangerous areas (PRDs).In this paper,an air route network optimization model is developed with the total operational cost as the objective function while airspace restriction,air route network capacity,and non-straight-line factors (NSLF) are taken as major constraints.A square grid cellular space,Moore neighbors,a fixed boundary,together with a set of rules for solving the route network optimization model are designed based on cellular automata.The empirical traffic of airports with the largest traffic volume in each of the 9 flight information regions in mainland China is collected as the origin-destination (OD) air port pair demands.Based on traffic patterns,the model generates 35 air routes which successfully avoids 144 PRDs.Compared with the current air route network structure,the number of nodes decreases by 41.67％,while the total length of flight segments and air routes drop by 32.03％ and 5.82％ respectively.The NSLF decreases by 5.82％ with changes in the total length of the air route network.More importantly,the total operational cost of the whole network decreases by 6.22％.The computational results show the potential benefits of the model and the advantage of the algorithm.Optimization of air route network can significantly reduce operational cost while ensuring operation safety.     

多跑道协同运行模式优化方法

繁忙机场飞行区运行能力低下导致空中交通拥堵及航班延误现象频发,机场系统亟需扩容增效与排堵保畅。为有效平衡机场容流供需,研究了多跑道协同运行模式优化方法。综合考虑机场布局、交通流特性、气象条件等因素,提出了多跑道协同运行模式分类方法;基于跑道容量包络线理论,通过引入容量损失系数客观反映模式切换特点,建立了多跑道协同运行模式优化模型;结合多目标优化及遗传算法基本理论,设计了带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法（NSGA）,对模型进行了准确求解。仿真实验表明,模型可对多跑道协同运行模式进行优化配置,有效实现机场容量与流量之间的均衡。与单一固定模式相比,多元组合模式优化效果显著,其中航班延误成本减少了38.1%,航班调整数量减少了46.4%,所提方法可显著提升多跑道协同运行能力,有效提高航班正常性。     

机场建设"一市多场"模式研究

随着“一市一场”模式下的单机场在修建若干跑道后仍不能满足城市对机场的要求,修建第2座机场势在必行。借鉴国外大都市“一市多场”建设的成功经验,结合国内机场建设的实际情况,提出了构建“一市多场”的基本标准,即地方经济指标、运量指标、容量分配指标和航空公司选择指标4项标准,基于这4项标准分析了在实行“一市多场”过程中可能出现的及要实现该模式下机场的最优化配置应注意的问题,并以上海“一市两场”的模式为案例进行实证分析。     

机场飞行区资源调度问题研究(二)：发展脉络与趋势

充分释放机场资源红利,发挥机场资源的最大效益,是空管、机场、航空公司、旅客和政府等航空运输各利益相关方的共同目标。本文聚焦机场飞行区资源调度的发展脉络与趋势问题,为飞行区资源调度问题研究系列之二。从明确资源总量、盘活资源存量、做强资源增量视角梳理飞行区资源调度的发展脉络,并对飞行区资源调度的一体化、高效化、智能化、协同化和绿色化发展趋势进行分析。研究成果旨在为机场运行管理理论与应用的可持续发展提供科学指引。