基于太阳黑子群数据的多模态太阳耀斑预报模型

当前的太阳耀斑预报模型主要通过统计关系建立,直接将从太阳黑子群磁图中提取的特征参量作为模型输入,系统的自主性低,导致图像数据中包含的与太阳耀斑相关的高阶抽象信息难以被充分利用,进而限制模型预报的精度。为解决当前太阳耀斑预报中数据利用不充分的问题,文章将海量太阳观测数据与先进的人工智能技术结合,综合利用太阳活动区磁场观测图、磁场特征参量和对应的耀斑事件标签,并借助全连接神经网络高精确率以及卷积神经网络高召回率和可有效提取高层语义信息的优点,构建基于深度学习的多模态太阳耀斑预报模型。实验证明该模型的主要评价指标结果比其他模型至少提高7.8%。     

太阳高能粒子在行星际中的扩散过程

当太阳活动频繁,特别是有耀斑爆发或者日冕物质抛射驱动的激波时,经常能够观察到高能粒子(能量从几十keV到几十MeV)通量突然增加,这种由太阳活动产生的高能粒子事件被称为太阳高能粒子事件。文章研究了耀斑和日冕物质抛射产生的两类高能粒子事件,重点讨论了高能粒子横越磁力线的扩散对粒子在行星际空间传播过程中所起到的作用,给出了对于不同扩散系数条件的数值模拟结果。     

风云二号卫星空间环境监测器准确预报太阳质子事件

风云二号卫星空间环境监测器准确预报太阳质子事件中科院空间科学与应用研究中心日前通过安装在风云二号气象卫星上的空间环境监测器，成功地监测到太阳的两次最高量级大耀斑，对其引起的太阳质子事件进行了预报，并向各种航天器的用户发出了灾害预防警报。从１９９７年１...     

众眼看宇宙

2012年伊始,NASA就将这幅高清的X级太阳耀斑照片赠予世人欣赏。太阳耀斑（又称色球爆发）是太阳表面突然释放能量,喷射出高能带电粒子而形成的壮观场面,其寿命仅有几分钟至几个小时。     

世界最先进的太阳观测卫星升空

太阳对地球气候和空间天气影响十分巨大,太阳耀斑爆发时可将宇宙粒子喷射抵达地球而中断卫星通信,甚至导致地面供电中断。最新的研究也表明,地球气候为宇宙星体相互作用所致,而太阳对其影响首当其冲,所以监控和研究太阳的活动性十分重要。     

遥感卫星载荷海洋耀斑观测几何模型研究

为研究遥感卫星观测海洋耀斑时耀斑观测角度及耀斑长度的变化规律,为遥感载荷视场设计提供基础参考数据,文章在假设海洋表面完全反射的基础上,建立了卫星载荷海洋耀斑观测的完全几何模型,确定了卫星观测海洋耀斑的镜面反射极限位置,并建立方程组求取耀斑观测边缘视场指向角,以此获取耀斑观测角和耀斑长度。结合轨道仿真软件(Satellite Tools Kit,STK),以夏至日和冬至日的太阳同步轨道为算例,完成边缘视场耀斑观测指向角、耀斑观测角、耀斑长度的计算。结果表明,耀斑观测参数呈现明显的轨道周期特性,两个耀斑观测边缘指向角在冬至日和夏至日变化趋势相似,但变化范围不同;耀斑观测角呈类正弦变化,最大约为0.43°;耀斑长度夏至日时在0~29.2km范围内变化,冬至日时在0~29.7km范围内变化。通过STK软件生成的耀斑观测指向角与文章模型生成的耀斑观测边缘视场指向角进行对比验证,表明耀斑观测几何模型正确、合理,可为卫星遥感载荷的海洋耀斑观测或规避提供理论依据和边界条件。     

科技成果

NASA太阳动力观测卫星发回首批图片NASA的太阳动力观测卫星（Solar Dynamics Observatory,SD0）近日发回有关太阳活动的首批图片,可以帮助科学家更好地了解太阳动态过程。发回的图片显示了以前从没见过的物质流离开太阳黑子的详细过程。一些图片还详细刻画了太阳表面的活动。除此以外,卫星还在超紫外波长范围内对太阳耀斑进行了首次高清晰测量。     

一种实现太阳阵峰值功率跟踪的智能控制方法

首先讨论了峰值功率跟踪的一般概念及原理,然后提出了一种采用模糊自寻优智能控制原理来实现太阳阵峰值功率跟踪的具体方法。该方法先由模糊自寻优控制器的输出计算出下一时刻太阳阵电压的参考值,然后将此参考值与太阳阵的实际输出电压相比较,得出的误差信号去控制一个串联开关调节器PWM输出的占空比,以使太阳阵的输出电压达到此参考值。由于参考电压值的算法充分考虑了太阳阵峰值功率的逼近问题,因此,上述过程多次进行,就能使得太阳阵的工作点逐步向峰值功率点靠近。     

一种基于星载多核处理器的耀斑位置计算优化方法

空间相机的数据处理单元在轨求解太阳耀斑位置方程时,通常采用数值迭代法进行求解,相机扫描机构根据计算结果确定指向目标的位置。由于该数值迭代方程存在一定解算时间,会使扫描机构指向耀斑目标时滞后于卫星平台传递给空间相机的瞬时轨道参数,从而带来指向位置的误差。减小该误差的一种方法就是缩短耀斑位置方程的求解时间。文章从多CPU核并行计算目标方程的角度出发,构建一种可并行化求解的数值迭代算法对耀斑方程进行求解。相比于以往的单核CPU数据处理单元,采用多核CPU结构的并行数据处理单元可以在原有的主频和硬件条件下实现计算速度的提升,从而一定程度上减小扫描机构指向耀斑目标时的位置误差。文章对耀斑位置的迭代求解方程进行了分析,进行了并行化迭代方程的构建,并在某模拟硬件计算平台上对一组耀斑观测卫星的实时轨道参数进行了仿真计算。相比于常用的单核算法,并行化耀斑位置计算方法在原有主频条件下达到了更高的精度和计算速度。     

日地L4/L5点太阳立体探测任务初步设计

太阳耀斑和日冕物质抛射不仅是太阳物理研究中的重要课题，也是空间环境探测研究的重要对象。文章提出了一种在日地L4/L5点布置一颗探测器开展太阳立体探测的技术构想，相较于目前国际上在地球轨道或日地L1点布置探测器只能沿日地连线方向获取正对地球的太阳活动信息而言，该构想具有更大的优势，能够从侧面对整个日地连线上的日冕物质传播和演化规律进行立体监测，获取单点探测无法得到的立体信息，从而大大丰富太阳磁场、太阳活动等信息。文章在国外相关任务调研的基础上，对达到L5点的轨道转移方式和代价进行了初步计算，提出了探测器总体方案设想，并对我国开展L4/L5点太阳立体探测给出了未来发展建议。     

Features of solar wind streams on June 21–28, 2015 as a result of interactions between coronal mass ejections and recurrent streams from coronal holes

Coronal sources and parameters of solar wind streams during a strong and prolonged geomagnetic disturbance in June 2015 have been considered. Сorrespondence between coronal sources and solar wind streams at 1 AU has been determined using an analysis of solar images, catalogs of flares and coronal mass ejections, solar wind parameters including the ionic composition. The sources of disturbances in the considered period were a sequence of five coronal mass ejections that propagated along the recurrent solar wind streams from coronal holes. The observed differences from typical in magnetic and kinetic parameters of solar wind streams have been associated with the interactions of different types of solar wind. The ionic composition has proved to be a good additional marker for highlighting components in a mixture of solar wind streams, which can be associated with different coronal sources.     

激光频率波动对内差相干通信载波恢复性能的影响分析

搭建内差相干激光通信系统频率波动模型,对比分析BPSK和QPSK两种信号在不同频率波动条件下和Viterbi-Viterbi滤波器长度时的载波恢复性能。结果表明,当系统的工作状态稳定后,在激光频率波动幅度和波动频率较小时,两种信号的光信噪比损失平均值均小于0.5dB;随着波动幅度和波动频率的逐渐增大,Viterbi-Viterbi滤波器的长度越大,光信噪比损失就越严重。当Viterbi-Viterbi滤波器长度分别为7和11时,两种信号载波恢复性能良好。此时,BPSK信号由波动幅度引起的光信噪比损失平均值分别为0.11dB和0.16dB,由波动频率引起的光信噪比损失平均值均为0.15dB。而QPSK信号由波动幅度引起的光信噪比损失平均值分别为1.7dB和2.9dB,由波动频率引起的光信噪比损失平均值均为0.8dB。因此,对于相同的Viterbi-Viterbi滤波器长度、波动幅度和波动频率,BPSK信号的抑制激光频率波动能力优于QPSK信号。     

Ionospheric response to solar flares of C and M classes in January–February 2010

The ionospheric response to solar flares is analyzed for the case of the beginning of solar activity growth, when the background ionization of the ionosphere is still low enough. It is shown that the algorithms and methods of averaging variations and derivative of the total electron content (TEC) over the entire sunlit ionosphere almost always make it possible to identify the ionospheric response even to close in time weak solar flares of the C class. It is found that the response to a solar flare rather intense in the X-ray range can have almost no manifestations, which is caused by the fact that the flare does not reveal itself in the ultraviolet part of the spectrum. A map of the TEC derivative over the Japan territory with an average resolution of ～18 km is drawn for the M6.4 flare (February 7, 2010). Before the flare maximum, the TEC derivatives are synchronously increasing over the entire Japan, while after the flare maximum the values of the TEC derivative vary not so synchronously, and local differences are seen.     

Space weather forecast: Principles of the construction and boundaries of the implementation (experience of three cycles)

All significant short-term disturbances of the near-Earth space are caused exclusively by solar flare events and regions in the solar corona with the magnetic field open into the interplanetary space (coronal holes). Flare processes occur as a consequence of the interactions of new emerging magnetic fluxes within (flares) and outside (filament ejections) the active regions with already existing magnetic fields. The observation of emerging new magnetic fluxes and the estimate of their magnitude and the emerging rate allow one to forecast solar flares and filament ejections and estimate their degree of geoeffectiveness. The main agents that visualize the propagation of disturbance from solar flares and filaments in the solar corona and the interplanetary space are coronal mass ejections, the characteristics of which ideally allow one to estimate the possible disturbance of the geomagnetic field, the possible growth of high-energy charged particle fluxes in the near-Earth space. For successful forecast of geoeffective active phenomena on the Sun and their consequences in the near-Earth space, it is necessary to know the situation on the Sun for the last 3 days taking into account the development and characteristics of the current cycle and the epoch of solar activity.     

Proton Events and X-ray Flares in the Last Three Solar Cycles

A database joining the available information about proton enhancements near the Earth and their possible solar sources is organized on the basis of proton measurements of the GOES and IMP-8 satellites, the data of neutron monitors, and GOES X-ray measurements. One thousand one hundred and forty-four proton events with energy > 10 MeV have been selected in the period from 1975 to 2003. More than a half of these events can be reliably related to X-ray solar flares. A statistical analysis shows the probability of observing solar protons near the Earth and their maximum flux value to be strongly dependent on the importance of a flare and its heliolongitude. Proton events are recorded after all suitably located (western) flares with X-ray importance > X5. The heliolongitude of a flare predetermines the character of the time profile of proton events in many respects. The relationship of proton events with the other characteristics of flares is established. The flares associated with proton enhancements are characterized by longer duration, slower rise to the X-ray maximum, smaller temperature, and larger length of the X-ray loops.__________Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2005, pp. 171–185.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Belov, Garcia, Kurt, Mavromichalaki.     

Spectral analysis of ionospheric disturbances in the phase delay and radio signal amplitude at limb paths according to the <Emphasis Type="Italic">COSMIC</Emphasis> data in periods of solar activity

Based on more than 4500 sessions of radio transillumination of Earth’s atmosphere along the satellite–atmosphere–satellite path obtained in the COSMIC experiment, the distribution along latitude and over local time of the spatial spectra of variations in the ionospheric phase delay and signal amplitude has been analyzed. The spatial spectra have been calculated for two height ranges, i.e., 60–80 and 80–100 km. In the phase signal spectrum within the height range 80–100 km, the second maximum in the vicinity of a frequency of 7–8 rad/km is clearly seen. Its diurnal and latitudinal behavior and its decrease towards high latitudes in both hemispheres can also be seen. In the height range of 60–80 km, this maximum is hardly observed. Although solar flares can lead to substantial local changes in the electron concentration, no substantial difference in the behavior of the spectral densities of the amplitude and phase delay at long limb paths was observed within these two height ranges on days of active and quiet sun. The latter fact makes it possible to develop a united algorithm of optimal ionospheric correction of the radio occultation data independent of solar activity.     

空间站对日定向装置半物理试验台关键技术

为有效模拟空间站对日定向装置驱动性能受柔性太阳翼的扰动，验证对日定向装置驱动控制性能，采用半物理试验技术对对日定向装置进行地面试验考核。设计超高刚度及运动误差无附加力自适应的半物理试验台，对支撑连接机构和加载单元进行有限元分析与刚度测试；建立大尺度柔性太阳翼的动力学模型，并采用Wilson θ法进行动力学模型的实时数值求解；运用跟踪微分法对对日定向装置低速运行下的角速度和角加速度进行估计；最后通过对半物理试验台的响应精度、加载有效性进行仿真和试验考核，结果表明试验台加载力矩幅值为 0~ 85 Nm、频率为0.01~3 Hz时，绝对精度优于0.85 Nm，相对精度优于1%，从而验证了半物理试验台对太阳翼扰动载荷模拟的真实有效性，可实现对日定向装置的性能测试。     

Coronal mass ejections in July 2005 and an unusual heliospheric event

Using the events in July 2005 as an example, the causes and peculiarities of Forbush effects produced by solar sources remote from the central zone are discussed. The event in question differs from other effects observed at the periphery of interplanetary disturbances by strong variations in cosmic rays on the background of weak disturbances in the solar wind and magnetic field of the Earth. The cloud of magnetized plasma ejected from the Sun was large and fast, but it passed to the west from the Sun-Earth line. According to performed estimates, the mass of the ejected substance was close to the upper boundary of mass for coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Anomalous parameters and high modulation capability of the formed solar wind disturbance are explained, in particular, by the fact that it combined several CMEs and that the last fast disturbance was prepared by a series of impulsive events in the active region of the Sun. Usually, such a great mass is ejected directly after the main energy release in strong solar flares. In the given case, a powerful MHD disturbance occurred approximately half an hour after a maximum of hard X-ray burst under the conditions when gas pressure in the flare loops became close to magnetic pressure, which was just a premise of the largescale ejection.     

Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances, 1976–2000: 2

In this paper we continue the analysis of the influence of solar and interplanetary events on magnetospheric storms that was started in [1]. Two data sets are additionally analyzed in the present study: solar flares of importance M5 and greater in 1976–2000 and halo CMEs observed by the SOHO spacecraft during the period of 1996–2000. It is demonstrated that the statistical characteristics of the new set of flares and of that analyzed before in [1] differ little, while the geoeffectiveness of the halo CMEs turned out to be much less than that of the previously published CMEs.     

集中式多输入多输出雷达信号盲分离算法研究

在电子对抗领域,对集中式多输入多输出（Multiple Input Multiple Output, MIMO）雷达的信号侦察和分选是一个难点。提出采用盲分离（Blind Source Separation, BSS）算法中的非圆复信号快速独立分量分析（Noncircular Complex Fast ICA, NC FastICA）对MIMO雷达进行信号分选。为了满足盲分离算法的应用条件,提出一种在多视角观测位置采集雷达信号的侦察方法来构建可分离的满秩混合矩阵。仿真结果表明,对相位编码、离散频率编码等典型正交波形进行等角度间隔采样和盲分离时,无论是否存在幅度起伏,在信噪比为10dB时均可以达到低于-14dB的正交波形分离度,对分离后的波形进行相关性对比和时频分析的结果也验证了本文方法的有效性。