The hidden costs of reliability and failure in launch systems

In comparing the costs of different launch vehicles, the possibility of the risk of failure is assumed to be accounted for by the cost of insurance. The satellite may be insured against loss during launch, and the launch services provider may offer a “free relaunch.” However, actual costs of reliability and failure extend beyond this. Each failure necessitates an investigation and a “get well” programme by the operating agency, while putting the operations team “on hold” until services can resume. A commercial operator may also lose customer revenue and actual customers through loss of confidence or unavailability. Such costs tend to be hidden, and not evaluated in assessing the effectiveness of a system, but count towards total costs. Failure investigations help to improve system reliability, but this could equally have been achieved by expenditure in development and qualification. Reusable launch vehicles will have different costs associated with reliability and failure. The relationship between reliability and cost, properly assessed, ought to influence the design of both expendable and reusable launch systems.     

The impact of launch vehicle type and size on development cost

The technical development trend of future launch vehicle systems is towards fully reusable systems, in order to reduce space transportation cost. However, different types of launch vehicles are feasible, as there are

• —winged two-stage systems (WTS)

• —ballistic single-stage vehicles (BSS)

• —ballistic two-stage vehicles (BTS)

The performance of those systems is compared according to the present state of the art as well as the development cost, based on the “TRANSCOST-Model”. The development costs are shown versus launch mass (GLOW) and pay-load for the three types of reusable systems mentioned above.It is shown that performance optimization and cost minimization lead to different results. It is more economic to increase the vehicle size for achieving higher performance, instead of increasing technical complexity.Finally it is described that due to the essentially lower launch cost of reusable vehicles it will be feasible to recover the development cost by an amortization charge on the launch cost. This possibility, however, would allow commercial funding of future launch vehicle developments.     

火箭结构估重与总体优化设计的数字化实现及应用

火箭新型号总体方案论证时,一般借鉴国内外相近规模和相同推进剂火箭的结构系数进行类比确定子级结构系数,按照比例系数分配贮箱和壳段等部段的质量,但该质量分配不能反映载荷对结构设计的影响,在细化迭代设计中易造成方案无法闭环,导致设计工作反复。为了加快总体方案论证,提出一种基于载荷的箭体结构快速估重方法,开发形成结构估重数字化模块并嵌入总体设计平台。应用案例表明,提出的数字化估重平台能够有效提高估重精度,同时显著缩短论证周期,兼具总体方案比较和优化、全箭质量管理等功能,能有效降低方案推翻重新设计的风险,在新型号总体方案论证中发挥了重要作用。     

Mars Direct: Humans to the red planet by 1999

“Mars Direct”, is an approach to the space Exploration Initiative that allows for the rapid initiation of manned Mars exploration, possibly as early as 1999. The approach does not require any on-orbit assembly or refueling or any support from the Space Station or other orbital infrastructure. Furthermore, the Mars Direct plan is not merely a “flags and footprints” one-shot expedition, but puts into place immediately an economical method of Earth-Mars transportation, real surface exploratory mobility, and significant base capabilities that can evolve into a mostly self-sufficient Mars settlement. This paper presents both the initial and evolutionary phases of the Mars Direct plan. In the initial phase, only chemical propulsion is used, sendig 4 persons on conjunction class Mars exploratory missions. Two heavy lift booster launches are required to support each mission. The first launch delivers an unfueled Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) to the martian surface, where it fills itself with methane/oxygen bipropellant manufactured primarily out of indigenous resources. After propellant production is completed, a second launch delivers the crew to the prepared site, where they conduct regional exploration for 1.5 years and then return directly to Earth in the ERV. In the second phase of Mars Direct, nuclear thermal propulsion is used to cut crew transit times in half, increase cargo delivery capacity, and to create the potential for true global mobility through the use of CO₂ propelled ballistic hopping vehicles (“NIMFs”). In this paper we present both phases of the Mars Direct plan, including mission architecture, vehicle designs, and exploratory strategy leading to the establishment of a 48 person permanent Mars base. Some speculative thoughts on the possibility of actually colonizing Mars are also presented.     

运载火箭多体动力学建模与仿真技术研究

针对新一代运载火箭结构动力学与控制系统耦合强烈、严重影响火箭的飞行稳定问题,提出一种基于多体动力学虚拟样机建模与仿真的方法,有效解决运载火箭姿态动力学模型地面难以验证的困难.首先阐述了在运载火箭姿态动力学分析中应用多体虚拟样机的基本思路;然后对多体动力学模型与传统火箭姿态动力学模型在建模原理上的差异进行分析,指出引入多...     

运载火箭尾段防热/承载一体化热防护系统设计及性能分析

先进热防护技术是可重复使用运载火箭研制的关键技术之一,具有高结构效率的防热/承载一体化热防护系统是运载火箭极具潜力的备选热防护方案。本文系统地总结了可重复使用运载火箭尾舱段防热和承载两方面的设计要求,设计了一种全复合材料防隔热/承载一体化热防护系统。开展了运载火箭尾段一体化热防护系统设计,进行了代表性单胞结构的高温环境地面试验,揭示了复合材料一体化热防护系统的防隔热机理。同时施加力学和热流载荷,利用有限元方法对运载火箭尾段进行了热力耦合分析,获得了尾段结构的温度场、应变场和应力场。结果表明:在典型载荷工况下一体化热防护系统内壁温度保持在89.2℃以下,内部最大应力不超过9.53 MPa,安全系数达到1.89。     

基于序列近似优化算法的固体运载火箭弹道设计

采用打靶法研究固体运载火箭弹道优化设计问题。针对打靶法中智能优化算法效率、优化问题中约束条件提法等方面的不足,引入序列近似优化算法,提出算法中径向基函数高斯核宽度的高效确定方法。数值仿真实验表明,提出的方法可在基本不带来计算量增加的前提下,显著提高代理模型精度,使序列近似优化算法得到改进,提高优化效率。设计固体运载火箭飞行程序。建立弹道优化设计问题数学模型,并将模型中相关等式约束合理转化为不等式约束,降低优化问题求解难度;基于改进后的序列近似优化算法完成某固体运载火箭弹道优化,原始计算模型调用308次之后便搜索到最优解,较传统智能优化算法显著提高了优化效率,优化方案末助推级液体推进剂消耗比原方案减少25.7%。     

固体运载火箭的技术特点与研制规律分析（英文）

Solid-propellant and liquid-propellant launch vehicles have their own characteristics, both playing an important role in space transportation systems of space powers. This paper reviews and summarizes the development history of solid-propellant launch vehicles, and analyzes their technical characteristics including multiple stages, large payloads, complex separation, diverse operation modes, fast response, and mission adaptability as well as unique advantages in launch activities. This paper analyzes and proposes four development laws for solid-propellant launch vehicles, including improving comprehensive performance, infusing heritage with innovation, unitization and seriation, and optimizing power systems. Finally, this paper proposes the opportunities and challenges faced by solid-propellant launch vehicles based on market demands.     

北斗工程IGSO/MEO/GEO发射轨道设计

随着我国航天事业的蓬勃发展，运载火箭发射要求也呈现多样化。北斗卫星导航系统是我国自行研制的全球卫星导航系统，经历三步跨越式发展，目前已经全面建成。CZ-3A系列火箭承担了北斗工程全部发射任务，该工程对火箭倾斜同步转移轨道（IGTO）、中圆转移轨道（MTO）、地球同步转移轨道（GTO）新类型轨道要求。介绍了该类轨道特点，讨论了火箭发射方案、发射轨道设计及高空风双向补偿方法。实际飞行考核充分证明了发射轨道设计的正确性，设计方法确保了北斗工程全部发射任务取得圆满成功，为北斗工程顺利实施奠定了基础。     

Low Cost and Reusability of Launch Vehicle

This paper analyzes the launch price of the launch vehicles, domestic and abroad, studies the status and trend of the low cost launch vehicles, and introduces two measures to reduce the cost by means of evolved and disruptive technologies, utilizing the concept of low cost manufacturing and operating modes as well. This paper also analyzes the launch strategies for small satellites such as piggyback, networking launch, and single launch with a small launch vehicle(SLV). Finally, the development trend of reusable launch vehicles is discussed as well as the development prospects for China's reusable launch vehicle.     

Tracing the evolutionary path for space technologies

Proliferation and pace of advancing technologies warrant policy and strategic decision-making. Without thinking ahead, companies can loose marketshare and countries can yield comparative advantage. The rate at which burgeoning technologies progress, however, can make it difficult for corporations and governments alike to discern or better anticipate critical junctures in technology developments. This paper presents a conceptual, multidimensional framework, the “evolutionary path”, for understanding the stages of technological development in the civil space area. The analysis draws from three case studies — communications satellites, computers, and launch vehicles — and shows how the implications and developments of new, breakthrough technologies differ from the incremental technology upgrades or the later emergence of interconnected systems and infrastructures.     

长征三号甲系列运载火箭高适应性发展——从总体与导航制导控制的视角

从总体与导航制导控制的视角,对长征三号甲系列运载火箭发展与成就进行了分析和小结。长征三号甲系列运载火箭,在长征三号运载火箭解决我国发射高轨道卫星有无问题的基础上,历经基本能力、适应能力、高适应能力的发展,具备了高轨道大型卫星运载能力,突破了从单一轨道面到三维空间各种轨道发射、从高轨卫星转移轨道到工作轨道发射、从地球轨道到地月轨道发射以及从航天技术试验到高可靠工程应用发射等关键技术,使我国运载火箭整体能力取得了地球全轨道发射、星际轨道发射等跨越发展。航天重大工程和国际商业发射表明,该系列运载火箭已进入世界高轨道航天器发射的运载火箭前列,并奠定了进一步开拓发展的基础。     

基于冲击响应谱变换的星箭力学环境等效频谱影响因素分析

介绍基于冲击响应谱变换和稳态放大系数的星箭力学环境等效频谱工程计算方法,给出冲击响应谱相对于正弦基础激励的瞬态放大系数近似解析公式,并结合典型星箭界面加速度时域响应数据分析力学环境等效频谱的影响因素。数值计算和理论分析结果表明:发射段低频力学环境瞬态效应明显,采用工程计算方法确定星箭力学环境等效频谱的结果受稳态放大系数取值影响较大——该系数取值的增大将使等效频谱幅值在整体上明显减小,频率分布特性也会发生变化。可见,目前工程上所采用的星箭力学环境等效频谱计算方法尚有不合理之处,后续应探索新的星箭力学环境等效频谱确定方法。     

基于PXI总线技术的运载火箭测试发射控制系统研究

简要介绍了PXI总线技术的发展情况,阐明了PXI技术的优越性及其在军事航天领域应用的重要意义。参考现有产品资料,设计了基于PXI总线技术的运载火箭测试发射控制系统的硬件组成和软件框架。该技术的应用将进一步推动运载火箭测试发射系统的智能化、通用化和小型化,从而提高运载火箭的整体性能。     

基于TmNS的运载火箭天地一体化测控网络研究

为满足运载火箭日益增长的测控需求，网络化测控成为未来运载火箭测控的必然趋势。通过研究IRIG 106-20国际遥测标准中TmNS标准特性、协议栈以及系统架构，提出了基于TmNS的运载火箭天地一体化测控网络的新概念，给出了测控网络系统架构、各部分组成及功能，并对其中涉及的TmNS数据消息传输协议、RF网络接入层协议、TMoIP协议、数据包遥测技术等关键技术进行研究，提出了可行的实现方案，为今后我国新一代运载火箭天地一体化测控通信奠定技术基础。     

The Development Characteristics and Trends of Heavy Launch Vehicles

Heavy launch vehicles represent the ability of a country to enter space and utilize space resources. In re-cent years, with the growth in human space exploration, the major aerospace powers and companies in the world areplanning to develop heavy launch vehicles. This study analyzes the development of heavy launch vehicles in the world,reviews the characteristics of China's heavy launch vehicle serial configuration, and then proposes common points anddevelopment trends of future heavy launch vehicles in the world.     

一种可兼容多型号运载火箭的可重构式活动发射平台（英文）

A launch pad is an important part of the launch vehicle system. It bears the weight of launch vehicles and payloads, and is burnt due to the high-temperature and high-pressure gas flow during launch. This study analyzes the development of launch pads in the world, reviews a reconfigurable mobile launch pad for multiple launchers, then proposes common points and development trends of future launch pads in the world.     

两级运载火箭回收方案设想

文章通过对K—1运载火箭的回收方案进行分析研究,提出回收质量分别为10t和20t的两级运载火箭的回收方案设想。文章指出,根据现有的回收技术水平,对运载火箭的回收是完全可行的。     

Developing new launch vehicle technology: The case for multi-national private sector cooperation

Space is now a global business, yet the cost of getting to space is still high. Developing new launch vehicles that are cheaper, safer, and more reliable is the key to both rapid commercial growth and to more and better government uses of space. However, the R&D process leading to new launch vehicles is expensive and technically challenging; the past 50 years have seen many government development programs, but no major technological breakthroughs. Perhaps, it is therefore time to think about other ways of developing new launch vehicles. The best expertise in this field resides primarily with private companies and is spread across many actors and nations. A consortium led by space firms might be a better approach to opening up space in the 21st century. Governments will have to develop new policies treating space as though it were a commercial industry, in particular, relaxing export trade restrictions wherever possible. Issues of dual-use may be outweighed by the rapidly growing widespread availability of launch capabilities. Since new launch vehicles will require large up-front R&D expenditures, government support will continue to be needed to supplement private capital funds. Contributions to this effort should be international. However, difficult it might be in today's security conscious environment to reorient government policy, doing so may offer the most efficient and successful way to break the technological and economic barriers to more reliable access to space.     

LM-11——The Main Force in China's Small Launch Vehicles for Commercial Launch

The Long March 11 launch vehicle(LM-11) is the only solid launch vehicle within China's new-generation launch vehicle series, enabling a full spectrum of Chinese launch vehicles. Compared with other China's LM series launch vehicles, it has the shortest launch preparation time. With the characteristics of appropriate launch capability, quick response, easy-to-use, flexible operation, universal interface and strong task adaptability, LM-11 can better meet the launch requirements for various small networking satellite, replacement and for emergency use. After four successful launches, LM-11 has become the main Chinese launch vehicle oriented to the international small satellite commercial launch market.