Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Ionospheric reflection of the magnetic activity described by the index η

Differences in the external part of the vertical geomagnetic component point to the existence of local inhomogeneities in the magnetosphere or the ionosphere. Usually used magnetic indices are not sufficient to express the state of ionosphere, the common used global Kp index derived in the three-hour interval does not indicate much more rapidly changes appearing in ionosphere. Magnetic index η reflects ionospheric disturbances when other indices show very quiet conditions. Data of ionospheric characteristics (foE, foEs, h’E, h’F2) during 28-day long quiet day conditions (Kp = 0–2) in 2004 were analyzed. The correlations between strong local disturbances in ionosphere during very quiet days and high values of magnetic index η were found. The most sensitive to magnetic influence – ionospheric E layer data (foE characteristic) – reaches median deviations up to (+0.8 MHz and −0.8 MHz) during very low magnetic activity (Kp = 0–1). The high peaks (2–2.7) of the magnetic index η correlate in time with large local median deviations of foE. Such local deviations can suggest local inhomogeneities (vertical drifts) in the ionosphere. The correlation in space is not trivial. The strong peak of η is situated between the positive and negative deviations of foE. Additional observation is connected with correlation in time of the high η value with the negative median deviations of h’F2 (in some cases up to −90 km). The analysis was based on one-minute data recorded at each of 20 European Magnetic Observatories working in the INTERMAGNET network and from 19 ionosondes for 2004. Ionospheric data are sparse in time and in space in opposite to the magnetic data. The map of the magnetic indices can suggest the behavior of ionospheric characteristics in the areas where we have no data.     

Magnetotail current contribution to the Dst Index Using the MT Index and the WINDMI model

In this paper, we have improved the capabilities of a low dimensional nonlinear dynamical model called WINDMI to determine the state of the global magnetosphere by employing the magnetotail (MT) index as a measurement constraint during large geomagnetic storms. The MT index is derived from particle precipitation measurements made by the NOAA/POES satellites. This index indicates the location of the nightside ion isotropic boundary, which is then used as a proxy for the strength of the magnetotail current in the magnetosphere. In Asikainen et al. (2010), the contribution of the tail current to the Dst index is estimated from an empirical relationship based on the MT index. Here the WINDMI model is used as a substitute to arrive at the tail current and ring current contribution to the Dst index, for comparison purposes. We run the WINDMI model on 7 large geomagnetic storms, while optimizing the model state variables against the Dst index, the MT index, and the AL index simultaneously. Our results show that the contribution from the geotail current produced by the WINDMI model and the MT index are strongly correlated, except during some periods when storm time substorms are observed. The inclusion of the MT index as an optimization constraint in turn increases our confidence that the ring current contribution to the Dst index calculated by the WINDMI model is correct during large geomagnetic storms.     

Fluxes and nuclear abundances of cosmic rays inside the magnetosphere using a transmission function approach

At 1 AU and outside the Earth’s magnetosphere, the relative abundances to protons for He (He/p), C (C/p) and Fe (Fe/p) nuclei were calculated using the observation data of AMS-01 (for p and He) and HEAO-3 (for C and Fe) above 0.8 GeV/nucleon. In addition, the transmission function (TF) for the GCR propagation inside the magnetosphere was evaluated using the IGRF and T96 (introduced by Tsyganenko and Stern) models to obtain permitted and forbidden trajectories inside the magnetosphere. The TF allowed one to derive the primary He-nuclei fluxes in the same geomagnetic regions of AMS-01 observations. These fluxes were found in good agreement with the observation data. Furthermore inside the magnetosphere in addition to the flux of helium, it allowed one to obtain those of the primary p, C, and Fe nuclei and the relative abundances of He, C and Fe nuclei to protons from the same observation data of AMS-01 and HEAO-3 above ≈0.8 GeV/nucleon. Up to a geomagnetic latitude of ≈45.84°, the relative isotopic abundances were found to depend on the mass number I_isot and, on average, range from a factor ≈2.31 up to ≈3.35 larger than those outside the magnetosphere at 1 AU. Thus, the magnetospheric isotopic/nuclear relative abundances differ from those inside the solar cavity and those in the interstellar space. The usage of the TF approach can allow one to determine the nuclear abundances in the magnetosphere at any geomagnetic latitude and, thus, any orbit, provided that the CR spectra are determined at 1 AU.     

A statistical analysis of substorm associated tail activity

Substorm onset timing is a critical issue in magnetotail dynamics research. Solar wind energy is accumulated in the magnetosphere and the configuration of the magnetosphere evolves toward an unstable state during the growth phase. At some point, the expansion phase begins and the stored energy is released through a variety of processes that return the magnetosphere to a lower energy state. In recovery the various processes die away. Unfortunately, the ground and magnetospheric signatures of onset, i.e. energy release, can be seen both in the growth phase prior to onset and in the expansion phase after onset. Some investigators refer to each of these events as a substorm. Tail observations suggest that most substorms have one event that differentiates the behavior of the tail field and plasma. We refer to this time as the “main substorm onset”. Each substorm associated phenomenon is timed independently and then compared with main substorm onsets. ISEE-2 tail observations are used to examine the tail lobe magnetic conditions associated with substorms because ISEE-2 orbit has a high inclination and frequently observes lobe field. Approximately 70 ∼ 75% of tail lobe B_t and B_z change are associated with the main substorm onset. If the satellite is more than 3 Re above (below) the neutral sheet, 86% (57%) of plasma pressure dropouts are associated with substorms. We interpret our results as evidence that the effect of the growth phase is to drive the magnetosphere towards instability. As it approaches global instability local regions become temporarily unstable but are rapidly quenched. Eventually one of these events develops into the global instability that releases most of the stored energy and returns the magnetosphere to a more stable configuration.     

Solar cycle and latitude dependence of high-beta suprathermal plasma conditions in interplanetary space between 1.3 and 5.4 AU

The analysis of energetic particles and magnetic field measurements from the Ulysses spacecraft has shown that in a series of events, the energy density contained in the suprathermal tail particle distribution is comparable to or larger than that of the magnetic field, creating conditions of high-beta plasma. In this work we analyze periods of high-beta suprathermal plasma occurrences (β_ep > 1) in interplanetary space, using the ratio (β_ep) of the energetic particle (20 keV to ∼5 MeV) and magnetic field energy densities from measurements covering the entire Ulysses mission lifetime (1990–2009) in order to reveal new or to reconfirm some recently defined interesting characteristics. The main key-results of the work are summarized as follows: (i) we verify that high-beta events are detected within well identified regions corresponding mainly to the vicinity of shock surfaces and magnetic structures, and associated with energetic particle intensity enhancements due to (a) reacceleration at shock-fronts and (b) unusually large magnetic field depressions. (ii) We define three considerable features for the high-beta events, concentrated on the next points: (a) there is an appreciable solar-activity influence on the high-beta events, during the maximum and middle solar-cycle phase, (b) the annual peak magnitude and the number of occurrences of high events are well correlated with the sunspot number, (c) the high-beta suprathermal plasma events present a spatial distribution in heliographic latitudes (HL) up to ∼±80°, and a specific important concentration on the low (−25° ? HL < −6°, 6° < HL ? 25°) and median (−45° ? HL < −25°, 25° < HL ? 45°) latitudes. We also reconfirm by a statistical analysis the results of Marhavilas and Sarris (2011), that the high-beta suprathermal plasma (β_ep > 1) events are characterized by a very large parameter β_ep (up to 1732.5), a great total duration (406 days) and a large percentage of the Ulysses-mission lifetime (which is equal to 6.34% of the total duration with usable measurements, and 11.3% of the duration in presence of suprathermal particles events).     

Meteoroid bombardment as a source of the lunar exosphere

The column densities of impact-produced metal atoms in the exosphere during the peaks of activity of the main meteor showers – Geminids, Quadrantids and Perseids – and during quiet periods are estimated. The Na supply rate is estimated to be 2 × 10⁴, 3 × 10³, 10⁴, and 2 × 10⁴ atoms cm⁻² s⁻¹ for sporadic meteoroids, Perseid, Geminid, and Quadrantid meteor showers, respectively. A low upper limit on Ca in the lunar exosphere is explained by the condensation of Ca into dust grains during expansion of the cooling impact-produced vapor cloud. The chemical composition of gas-phase species released to the lunar exosphere during meteoroid impacts has been estimated. Most impact-produced molecules that contain metals are destroyed by solar photons while on ballistic trajectories. Energies of Na, K, Ca, and Mg atoms produced via photolysis of the respective monoxides are estimated to be 0.4, 0.35, 0.6, and 0.45 eV, respectively. The relative content of impact-produced Na and K atoms is maximal at altitudes of about 1000–2000 km and during the main meteor showers, lunar eclipses, and passages of the Moon through the Earth’s magnetosphere.     

Study of waves in the magnetotail region with cluster and DSP

The study of the neutral sheet is of fundamental importance in understanding the dynamics of the Earth’s magnetosphere. From the earliest observation of the magnetotail, it has been found that the neutral sheet frequently appears to be in motion due to changing solar wind conditions and geomagnetic activity. Multiple crossings of the neutral sheet by spacecraft have been attributed to a flapping motion of the neutral sheet in the north–south direction, a wavy profile either along the magnetotail or the dawn–dusk direction. Cluster observations have revealed that the flapping motions of the Earth’s magnetotail are of internal origin and that kink-like waves are emitted from the central part of the tail and propagate toward the tail flanks. This flapping motion is shown here to propagate at an angle of ∼45° with x_GSM. A possible assumption that the flapping could be created by a wake travelling away from a fast flow in the current sheet is rejected. Other waves in the magnetotail are found in the ULF range. One conjunction event between Cluster and DoubleStar TC1 is presented where all spacecraft show ULF wave activity at a period of approximately 5 min during fast Earthward flow. These waves are shown to be Kelvin–Helmholtz waves on the boundaries of the flow channel. Calculations show that the conversion of flow energy into magnetic energy through the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability can contribute to a significant part of flow breaking between Cluster and DoubleStar TC1.     

Neutron monitor asymptotic directions of viewing during the event of 13 December 2006

During the recent ground level enhancement of 13 December 2006, also known as GLE70, solar cosmic ray particles of energy bigger that ∼500 MeV/nucleon propagated inside the Earth’s magnetosphere and finally accessed low-altitude satellites and ground level neutron monitors. The magnitude and the characteristics of this event registered at different neutron monitor stations of the worldwide network can be interpreted adequately on the basis of an estimation of the solar particle trajectories in the near Earth interplanetary space. In this work, an extended representation of the Earth’s magnetic field was realized applying the Tsyganenko 1989 model. Using a numerical back-tracing technique the solar proton trajectories inside the magnetospheric field of the Earth were calculated for a variety of particles, initializing their travel at different locations, covering a wide range of energies. In this way, the asymptotic directions of viewing were calculated for a significant number of neutron monitor stations, providing crucial information on the Earth’s “magnetospheric optics” for primary solar cosmic rays, on the top of the atmosphere, during the big solar event of December 2006. The neutron monitor network has been treated, therefore, as a multidimensional tool that gives insights into the arrival directions of solar cosmic ray particles as well as their spatial and energy distributions during extreme solar events.     

Magnetosphere response to the 2005 and 2006 extreme solar events as observed by the Cluster and Double Star spacecraft

The four identical Cluster spacecraft, launched in 2000, orbit the Earth in a tetrahedral configuration and on a highly eccentric polar orbit (4–19.6 R_E). This allows the crossing of critical layers that develop as a result of the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere. Since 2004 the Chinese Double Star TC-1 and TC-2 spacecraft, whose payload comprise also backup models of instruments developed by European scientists for Cluster, provided two additional points of measurement, on a larger scale: the Cluster and Double Star orbits are such that the spacecraft are almost in the same meridian, allowing conjugate studies. The Cluster and Double Star observations during the 2005 and 2006 extreme solar events are presented, showing uncommon plasma parameters values in the near-Earth solar wind and in the magnetosheath. These include solar wind velocities up to ∼900 km s⁻¹ during an ICME shock arrival, accompanied by a sudden increase in the density by a factor of ∼5 and followed by an enrichment in He⁺⁺ in the secondary front of the ICME. In the magnetosheath ion density values as high as 130 cm⁻³ were observed, and the plasma flow velocity there reached values even higher than the typical solar wind velocity. These resulted in unusual dayside magnetosphere compression, detection of penetrating high-energy particles in the magnetotail, and ring current development following several successive injections of energetic particles in the inner magnetosphere, which “washed out” the previously formed nose-like ion structures.     

Global comparison of the model results of GSM TIP with IRI for summer conditions

This paper presents the results of the numerical calculations thermosphere/ionosphere parameters which were executed with using of the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP)and comparison of these results with empirically-based model IRI-2001. Model GSM TIP was developed in West Department of IZMIRAN and solves self-consistently the time-dependent, 3-D coupled equations of the momentum, energy and continuity for neutral particles (O₂, N₂, O), ions (O⁺, H⁺), molecular ions (M⁺) and electrons and largescale eletric field of the dynamo and magnetospheric origin in the range of height from 80 km to 15 Earth’s radii. The empirically derived IRI model describes the E and F regions of the ionosphere in terms of location, time, solar activity and season. Its output provides a global specification not only of N_e but also on the ion and electron temperatures and the ion composition. These two models represent a unique set of capabilities that reflect major differences in along with a substantial approaches of the first-principles model and global database model for the mapping ionosphere parameters. We focus on global distribution of the N_e, T_i, T_e and TEC for the one moment UT and fixed altitudes: 110 km, h_mF2, 300 km and 1000 km. The calculations were executed with using of GSM TIP and IRI models for August 1999, moderate solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions. Results present as the global differences between the IRI and GSM TIP models predictions. The discrepancies between model results are discussed.     

Moderate geomagnetic storms of January 22–25, 2012 and their influences on the wave components in ionosphere and upper stratosphere-mesosphere regions

Moderate geomagnetic storms occurred during January 22–25, 2012 period. The geomagnetic storms are characterized by different indices and parameters. The SYM-H value on January 22 increased abruptly to 67 nT at sudden storm commencement (SSC), followed by a sharp decrease to −87 nT. A second SSC on January 24 followed by a shock on January 25 was also observed. These SSCs before the main storms and the short recovery periods imply the geomagnetic storms are CME  -driven. The sudden jump of solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF _Bz$B_z$ are also consistent with occurrence of CMEs. This is also reflected in the change in total electron content (TEC) during the storm relative to quiet days globally. The response of the ionospheric to geomagnetic storms can also be detected from wave components that account for the majority of TEC variance during the period. The dominant coherent modes of TEC variability are diurnal and semidiurnal signals which account upto 83% and 30% of the total TEC variance over fairly exclusive ionospheric regions respectively. Comparison of TEC anomalies attributed to diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides, as well as stationary planetary waves (SPW1) at 12 UTC shows enhancement in the positive anomalies following the storm. Moreover, the impact of the geomagnetic storms are distinctly marked in the daily time series of amplitudes of DW1, SW2 and SPW1. The abrupt changes in amplitudes of DW1 (5 TECU) and SW2 (2 TECU) are observed within 20°S–20°N latitude band and along 20°N respectively while that of SPW1 is about 3 TECU. Coherent oscillation with a period of 2.4 days between interplanetary magnetic field and TEC was detected during the storm. This oscillation is also detected in the amplitudes of DW1 over EIA regions in both hemispheres. Eventhough upward coupling of quasi two day wave (QTDWs) of the same periodicity, known to have caused such oscillation, are detected in both ionosphere and upper stratosphere, this one can likely be attributed to the geomagnetic storm as it happens after the storm commencement. Moreover, further analysis has indicated that QTDWs in the ionosphere are strengthened as a result of coherent oscillation of interplanetary magnetic field with the same frequency as QTDWs. On the otherhand, occurrences of minor SSW and geomagnetic storms in quick succession complicated clear demarcation of attribution of the respective events to variability of QTDWs amplitudes over upper stratosphere.     

Possible consequences of a disk around B0656+14 on e–e and near-1 Hz gravitational wave production

Nearby pulsars B0656+14 and Geminga were proposed in the literature as the main sources of cosmic-ray positrons observed near Earth above 10 GeV. B0656+14 has comparable distance from Earth, similar magnetic field and period of Geminga. However, observations in the R and I bands indicate the presence of a disk of approximately 10⁻⁴ M_⊙ around B0656+14. Radio and pulsed γ-ray flux observations from this pulsar are also consistent with supernova fallback material and disk entering the light cylinder and partially quenching the development of electromagnetic showers in the magnetosphere. If this is the case, B0656+14 has unlikely given any contribution to e⁺ and e⁻ observed near Earth. Absolute flux measurements and the level of anisotropy in the high energy electron and positron arrival directions above 50 GeV will help in revealing if none, one of both nearby pulsars are sources of these particles observed near Earth.     

Sawtooth substorms generated under conditions of the steadily high solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere: Relationship between PC, AL and ASYM indices

Periodicity in occurrence of magnetic disturbances in polar cap and auroral zone under conditions of steady and powerful solar wind influence on the magnetosphere is analyzed on the example of 9 storm events with distinctly expressed sawtooth substorms (N = 48). Relationships between the polar cap magnetic activity (PC-index), magnetic disturbances in the auroral zone (AL-index) and value of the ring current asymmetry (ASYM index) were examined within the intervals of the PC growth phase and the PC decline phase inherent to each substorm. It is shown that the substorm sudden onsets are always preceded by the PC growth and that the substorm development does not affect the PC growth rate. On achieving the disturbance maximum, the PC and AL indices are simultaneously fall down to the level preceding the substorm, so that the higher the substorm intensity, the larger is the AL and PC drop in the decline phase. The ASYM index increases and decreases in conformity with the PC and AL behavior, the correlation between ASYM and PC being better than between ASYM and AL. Level of the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere determines periodicity and intensity of disturbances: the higher the coupling function E_KL, the higher is substorm intensity and shorter is substorm length. Taking into account the permanently high level of auroral activity and inconsistency of aurora behavior and magnetic onsets during sawtooth substorms, the conclusion is made that auroral ionosphere conductivity is typically high and ensures an extremely high intensity of field-aligned currents in R1 FAC system. The periodicity of sawtooth substorms is determined by recurrent depletions and restorations of R1 currents, which are responsible for coordinated variations of magnetic activity in the polar cap and auroral zone.     

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.     

Dynamics of the convection in the inner magnetosphere by observations of the diffuse aurora,SAR arc and ionospheric drift

The first results of the comparison of subauroral luminosity dynamics in 557,7 and 630,0 nm emission with simultaneous measurements of the ionospheric drift in the F2 region with a digisonde DPS-4 at the Yakutsk meridian (CGMC: 55–60N, 200°E) at Kp = 2–6 are presented. It is shown from the analysis of individual events that during the magnetospheric convection intensification after the turn of the IMF B_z – component to the south the equatorward extension of diffuse aurora takes place. At the same time the westward ionospheric drift velocity increases both in the diffuse aurora region and much equatorward of it due to the occurrence of the northward polarization electric field. We suppose that the generation of polarization field can be associated with the development of the region 2 FAC during the intensification of magnetospheric convection. The comparison of ground-based observations with measurements of the plasma drift aboard the DMSP-F15 satellite has been carried out.     

Unusually strong magnetic fields in Titan’s ionosphere: T42 case study

Observations of unusually large magnetic fields in the ionosphere indicate periods of maximum stress on Titan’s ionosphere and potentially of the strongest loss rates of ionospheric plasma. During Titan flyby T42, the observed magnetic field attained a maximum value of 37 nT between an altitude of 1200 and 1600 km, about 20 nT stronger than on any other Titan pass and close to five times greater in magnetic pressure. The strong fields occurred near the corotation-flow terminator rather than at the sub-flow point, suggesting that the flow which magnetized the ionosphere was from a direction far from corotation and possibly towards Saturn. Extrapolation of solar wind plasma conditions from Earth to Saturn using the University of Michigan MHD code predicts an enhanced solar wind dynamic pressure at Saturn close to this time. Cassini’s earlier exits from Saturn’s magnetosphere support this prediction because the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer instrument saw a magnetopause crossing three hours before the strong field observation. Thus it appears that Titan’s ionosphere was magnetized when the enhanced solar wind dynamic pressure compressed the Saturnian magnetosphere, and perhaps the magnetosheath magnetic field, against Titan. The solar wind pressure then decreased, leaving a strong fossil field in the ionosphere. When observed, this strong magnetic flux tube had begun to twist, further enhancing its strength.     

Probing the method of correcting Faraday rotation in vector magnetograms

By analyzing the vector magnetograms of Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS) taken at the line center (0.0 Å) and the line wing (−0.12 Å) of FeI λ5324.19 Å, we make an estimate of the measured errors in transversal azimuths (δ?) caused by Faraday rotation. Since many factors, such as the magnetic saturation and scattered light, can affect the measurement accuracy of the longitudinal magnetic field in the umbrae of sunspots, we limit our study in the region ∣B_z∣ < 800 G. The main mean azimuth rotations are about 4°, 6°, 7° and 9°, while ∣B_z∣ are in the ranges of 400–500 G, 500–600 G, 600–700 G and 700–800 G, respectively. Moreover, we find there is also an azimuth rotation of about 8° at the wavelength offset −0.12 Å of the line compared against a previous numerical simulation.