Redefining safety in commercial space: Understanding debates over the safety of private human spaceflight initiatives in the United States

In 2009 President Obama proposed a budget for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that canceled the Constellation program and included the development of commercial crew transportation systems into low Earth orbit. This significant move to shift human spaceflight into the private sector sparked political debate, but much of the discourse has focused on impacts to “safety.” Although no one disputes the importance of keeping astronauts safe, strategies for defining safety reveal contrasting visions for the space program and opposing values regarding the privatization of U.S. space exploration. In other words, the debate over commercial control has largely become encoded in arguments over safety. Specifically, proponents of using commercial options for transporting astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) argue that commercial vehicles would be safe for astronauts, while proponents of NASA control argue that commercial vehicles would be unsafe, or at least not as safe as NASA vehicles. The cost of the spaceflight program, the technical requirements for designing a vehicle, the track record of the launch vehicle, and the experience of the launch provider are all incorporated into what defines safety in human spaceflight. This paper analyzes these contested criteria through conceptual lenses provided by fields of science and technology policy (STP) and science, technology, and society (STS). We ultimately contend that these differences in definition result not merely from ambiguous understandings of safety, but from intentional and strategic choices guided by normative positions on the commercialization of human spaceflight. The debate over safety is better considered a proxy debate for the partisan preferences embedded within the dispute over public or private spaceflight.     

Mars Direct: Humans to the red planet by 1999

“Mars Direct”, is an approach to the space Exploration Initiative that allows for the rapid initiation of manned Mars exploration, possibly as early as 1999. The approach does not require any on-orbit assembly or refueling or any support from the Space Station or other orbital infrastructure. Furthermore, the Mars Direct plan is not merely a “flags and footprints” one-shot expedition, but puts into place immediately an economical method of Earth-Mars transportation, real surface exploratory mobility, and significant base capabilities that can evolve into a mostly self-sufficient Mars settlement. This paper presents both the initial and evolutionary phases of the Mars Direct plan. In the initial phase, only chemical propulsion is used, sendig 4 persons on conjunction class Mars exploratory missions. Two heavy lift booster launches are required to support each mission. The first launch delivers an unfueled Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) to the martian surface, where it fills itself with methane/oxygen bipropellant manufactured primarily out of indigenous resources. After propellant production is completed, a second launch delivers the crew to the prepared site, where they conduct regional exploration for 1.5 years and then return directly to Earth in the ERV. In the second phase of Mars Direct, nuclear thermal propulsion is used to cut crew transit times in half, increase cargo delivery capacity, and to create the potential for true global mobility through the use of CO₂ propelled ballistic hopping vehicles (“NIMFs”). In this paper we present both phases of the Mars Direct plan, including mission architecture, vehicle designs, and exploratory strategy leading to the establishment of a 48 person permanent Mars base. Some speculative thoughts on the possibility of actually colonizing Mars are also presented.     

长征三号甲系列运载火箭高适应性发展——从总体与导航制导控制的视角

从总体与导航制导控制的视角,对长征三号甲系列运载火箭发展与成就进行了分析和小结。长征三号甲系列运载火箭,在长征三号运载火箭解决我国发射高轨道卫星有无问题的基础上,历经基本能力、适应能力、高适应能力的发展,具备了高轨道大型卫星运载能力,突破了从单一轨道面到三维空间各种轨道发射、从高轨卫星转移轨道到工作轨道发射、从地球轨道到地月轨道发射以及从航天技术试验到高可靠工程应用发射等关键技术,使我国运载火箭整体能力取得了地球全轨道发射、星际轨道发射等跨越发展。航天重大工程和国际商业发射表明,该系列运载火箭已进入世界高轨道航天器发射的运载火箭前列,并奠定了进一步开拓发展的基础。     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs,a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

烃类推进剂航天动力技术进展与展望未来

为研究烃类推进剂航天动力技术在中国的后续发展和未来应用方向,对比分析煤油、甲烷和丙烷等典型烃类推进剂的物理化学性质和应用特性,简要介绍烃类推进剂航天动力在一次性运载火箭、可重复使用运载器、高性能上面级推进、无毒空间推进和吸气式推进领域的发展动态及应用状况。当前国内外航天动力系统的发展和应用情况表明,以液氧煤油发动机和液氧甲烷发动机为代表的烃类推进剂航天动力将引领未来高性能低成本航天推进系统的发展趋势,依照中国液氧/烃火箭发动机的研制进展和技术水平,以其为核心的新型动力体系在中国未来的天地往返、载人登月和深空探测等多任务适应性方面具有良好应用前景。     

Aeroshell design techniques for aerocapture entry vehicles

A major goal of NASA's In-Space Propulsion Program is to shorten trip times for scientific planetary missions. To meet this challenge arrival speeds will increase, requiring significant braking for orbit insertion, and thus increased deceleration propellant mass that may exceed launch lift capabilities. A technology called aerocapture has been developed to expand the mission potential of exploratory probes destined for planets with suitable atmospheres. Aerocapture inserts a probe into planetary orbit via a single pass through the atmosphere using the probe's aeroshell drag to reduce velocity. The benefit of an aerocapture maneuver is a large reduction in propellant mass that may result in smaller, less costly missions and reduced mission cruise times. The methodology used to design rigid aerocapture aeroshells will be presented with an emphasis on a new systems tool under development. Current methods for fast, efficient evaluations of structural systems for exploratory vehicles to planets and moons within our solar system have been under development within NASA having limited success. Many systems tools that have been attempted applied structural mass estimation techniques based on historical data and curve fitting techniques that are difficult and cumbersome to apply to new vehicle concepts and missions. The resulting vehicle aeroshell mass may be incorrectly estimated or have high margins included to account for uncertainty. This new tool will reduce the guesswork previously found in conceptual aeroshell mass estimations.     

A Delphi-Based Framework for systems architecting of in-orbit exploration infrastructure for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit

The current debate in the U.S. Human Spaceflight Program focuses on the development of the next generation of man-rated heavy lift launch vehicles. While launch vehicle systems are of critical importance for future exploration, a comprehensive analysis of the entire exploration infrastructure is required to avoid costly pitfalls at early stages of the design process. This paper addresses this need by presenting a Delphi-Based Systems Architecting Framework for integrated architectural analysis of future in-orbit infrastructure for human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit. The paper is structured in two parts.     

北斗工程IGSO/MEO/GEO发射轨道设计

随着我国航天事业的蓬勃发展，运载火箭发射要求也呈现多样化。北斗卫星导航系统是我国自行研制的全球卫星导航系统，经历三步跨越式发展，目前已经全面建成。CZ-3A系列火箭承担了北斗工程全部发射任务，该工程对火箭倾斜同步转移轨道（IGTO）、中圆转移轨道（MTO）、地球同步转移轨道（GTO）新类型轨道要求。介绍了该类轨道特点，讨论了火箭发射方案、发射轨道设计及高空风双向补偿方法。实际飞行考核充分证明了发射轨道设计的正确性，设计方法确保了北斗工程全部发射任务取得圆满成功，为北斗工程顺利实施奠定了基础。     

The Development Characteristics and Trends of Heavy Launch Vehicles

Heavy launch vehicles represent the ability of a country to enter space and utilize space resources. In re-cent years, with the growth in human space exploration, the major aerospace powers and companies in the world areplanning to develop heavy launch vehicles. This study analyzes the development of heavy launch vehicles in the world,reviews the characteristics of China's heavy launch vehicle serial configuration, and then proposes common points anddevelopment trends of future heavy launch vehicles in the world.     

LM-11——The Main Force in China's Small Launch Vehicles for Commercial Launch

The Long March 11 launch vehicle(LM-11) is the only solid launch vehicle within China's new-generation launch vehicle series, enabling a full spectrum of Chinese launch vehicles. Compared with other China's LM series launch vehicles, it has the shortest launch preparation time. With the characteristics of appropriate launch capability, quick response, easy-to-use, flexible operation, universal interface and strong task adaptability, LM-11 can better meet the launch requirements for various small networking satellite, replacement and for emergency use. After four successful launches, LM-11 has become the main Chinese launch vehicle oriented to the international small satellite commercial launch market.     

Human exploration of near earth asteroids: Mission analysis for chemical and electric propulsion

This paper presents a mission analysis comparison of human missions to asteroids using two distinct architectures. The objective is to determine if either architecture can reduce launch mass with respect to the other, while not sacrificing other performance metrics such as mission duration. One architecture relies on chemical propulsion, the traditional workhorse of space exploration. The second combines chemical and electric propulsion into a hybrid architecture that attempts to utilize the strengths of each, namely the short flight times of chemical propulsion and the propellant efficiency of electric propulsion. The architectures are thoroughly detailed, and accessibility of the known asteroid population is determined for both. The most accessible asteroids are discussed in detail. Aspects such as mission abort scenarios and vehicle reusability are also discussed. Ultimately, it is determined that launch mass can be greatly reduced with the hybrid architecture, without a notable increase in mission duration. This demonstrates that significant performance improvements can be introduced to the next step of human space exploration with realistic electric propulsion system capabilities. This leads to immediate cost savings for human exploration and simultaneously opens a path of technology development that leads to technologies enabling access to even further destinations in the future.     

中国运载火箭技术发展

中国航天运输系统建设起步于20世纪60年代,经过近50年的发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就,建设了布局合理、覆盖全面的空间运输系统体系,能够将不同有效载荷发射到低、中、高不同轨道。国际合作方面,在搭载发射、商业卫星发射服务和在轨交付3个方面也取得了一定成绩。对中国航天运输系统发展成就进行了总结,对航天运输系统未来发展特别是人工智能技术应用进行了展望。     

A Ticket pricing strategy for an oligopolistic space tourism market

It is important for any new launch system to develop a successful pricing strategy and to optimize launch system parameters to receive a high economic profit. A question arises, what will happen when an existing suborbital flight market (the first likely to be established in space) is interfered with by a new established orbital flight market for space tourism. There is a risk that the suborbital space tourism market could be almost instantly displaced when a product capable of reaching orbit was introduced. This is best discussed using the following three cases whose results are presented in this paper. Case A presents a ticket pricing strategy for a suborbital and orbital vehicle if the two vehicles do not compete in the same market. Case B shows the necessary ticket pricing strategy for a suborbital vehicle if there is competition from an orbital flight operator. However, the suborbital vehicle would not be able to keep up with a drop in ticket prices due to its obsolete characteristics. Thus, the suborbital vehicle would be forced to stop operation in the year when flight costs became higher than flight receipts as shown in case C.     

Private space exploration: A new way for starting a spacefaring society?

Since the beginning space was an exclusive domain of public organizations, the role of privates is becoming more and more important, and not only in commercial activities. However, the main international treaties dealing with this subject are still based on the assumption that space activities are mostly reserved to states. In the last decade the idea that the role of privates could include the management of space infrastructures and launch vehicles gained support and now private launch services are a reality. An even wider role of privates is now advocated and private exploration and exploitation missions are discussed. This requires that space activity in general can generate an attractive return and those business models are identified.     

Future spacelift projection

In 1996 the NASA Advisory Council asked for a comprehensive look at future launch projections out to the year 2030 and beyond. In response to this request NASA sponsored a study at The Aerospace Corporation to develop long-range space transportation models for future commercial and government applications, and to analyze the design considerations and desired characteristics for future space transportation systems. Follow-ons to present space missions as well as a wide array of potential new space applications are considered in the study. This paper summarizes the space transportation system characteristics required to enable various classes of future missions. High reliability and the ability to achieve high flight rates per vehicle are shown to be key attributes for achieving more economical launch systems. Technical, economic and policy implications are also discussed.     

Future spacelift projections

In 1996 the NASA Advisory Council asked for a comprehensive look at future launch projections out to the year 2030 and beyond. In response to this request NASA sponsored a study at The Aerospace Corporation to develop long-range space transportation models for future commercial and government applications, and to analyze the design considerations and desired characteristics for future space transportation systems. Follow-ons to present space missions as well as a wide array of potential new space applications are considered in the study. This paper summarizes the space transportation system characteristics required to enable various classes of future missions. High reliability and the ability to achieve high flight rates per vehicle are shown to be key attributes for achieving more economical launch systems. Technical, economic and policy implications are also discussed.     

载人深空探测进入/再入走廊设计方法研究

载人航天器的进入/再入走廊刻画了进入地外天体或再入返回地球时允许的进入/再入角范围。载人深空探测进入/再入过程中,载人航天器必须满足进入/再入走廊约束,以避免经历过大的过载、热流和总加热量等力/热环境,威胁进入/再入飞行安全。文章研究载人深空探测进入/再入走廊的设计方法,通过融合载人航天器进入/再入预测校正制导,验证进入/再入走廊的可行性,并采用基于安全系数的偏差因素影响分析方法,获取进入/再入走廊的设计裕度。最后,以载人月地再入返回为例,具体阐明了再入走廊的设计方法,并通过数学仿真验证了设计方法的有效性。研究结果将为载人深空探测进入/再入走廊设计以及进入/再入返回总体设计提供技术参考。     

The future of space medicine.

In November 2000, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and its partners in the International Space Station (ISS) ushered in a new era of space flight: permanent human presence in low-Earth orbit. As the culmination of the last four decades of human space flight activities. the ISS focuses our attention on what we have learned to date. and what still must be learned before we can embark on future exploration endeavors. Space medicine has been a primary part of our past success in human space flight, and will continue to play a critical role in future ventures. To prepare for the day when crews may leave low-Earth orbit for long-duration exploratory missions, space medicine practitioners must develop a thorough understanding of the effects of microgravity on the human body, as well as ways to limit or prevent them. In order to gain a complete understanding and create the tools and technologies needed to enable successful exploration. space medicine will become even more of a highly collaborative discipline. Future missions will require the partnership of physicians, biomedical scientists, engineers, and mission planners. This paper will examine the future of space medicine as it relates to human space exploration: what is necessary to keep a crew alive in space, how we do it today, how we will accomplish this in the future, and how the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to achieve future goals.     

Rebuilding US launch capabilities

Attempts to rebuild US commercial launch capabilities through stimulating private industry will be constrained by the fact that free-market competition does not really exist in the space industry. As the worldwide supply of launch vehicles grows, the policy now offered by the US government is only likely to fragment the US space launch vehicle industry. The author argues in favour of a proposal to establish a quasi-governmental corporation for space launches which would both safeguard the interests of government and commercial users and ensure that business acumen was applied.