Present-Day Sea Level Change: Observations and Causes

We investigate climate-related processes causing variations of the global mean sea level on interannual to decadal time scale. We focus on thermal expansion of the oceans and continental water mass balance. We show that during the 1990s where global mean sea level change has been measured by Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry, thermal expansion is the dominant contribution to the observed 2.5 mm/yr sea level rise. For the past decades, exchange of water between continental reservoirs and oceans had a small, but not totally negligible contribution (about 0.2 mm/yr) to sea level rise. For the last four decades, thermal contribution is estimated to about 0.5 mm/yr, with a possible accelerated rate of thermosteric rise during the 1990s. Topex/Poseidon shows an increase in mean sea level of 2.5 mm/yr over the last decade, a value about two times larger than reported by historical tide gauges. This would suggest that there has been significant acceleration of sea level rise in the recent past, possibly related to ocean warming. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.     

Rio de la Plata estuarine system: Relationship between river flow and frontal variability

This paper deals with the application of SeaWIFS images to characterize spatial and temporal variability of fronts in the Rio de la Plata estuarine system over the period 2000–2003. We aim to depict the relationship between river outflow and variability of fronts’ loci on monthly to ENSO-related timescales and the influence of the winds along Rio de la Plata (axial winds) on the abrupt changes in frontal dynamics over synoptic timescales. During the studied period both La Niña (July 1999–June 2000) and El Niño (April 2002–May 2003) events induced significant displacements of fronts. Three distinct fronts were analyzed between river, estuarine, coastal and marine waters of the Rio de la Plata: Main Turbidity Front, Main Marine Front, and Secondary Marine Front. Their number, location and separation seem to be mainly related to river outflow and second, to fresh (>8 m/s) axial winds. During low discharge periods (i.e. summer time and/or La Niña events) these winds induce abrupt changes in the location of fronts (100–200 km) and greater separation between them over synoptic timescale, whereas during high river discharge or ENSO years some of the variability of fronts location is explained by the river’s outflow fluctuations, especially by the high variability of the River Uruguay discharge.     

An inter-comparison of zenith tropospheric delays derived from DORIS and GPS data

Doppler Orbitography Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) and Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques are similarly affected by propagation delays in the neutral atmosphere (troposphere) and hence make use of similar data processing strategies for reducing this effect. We compare Zenith Tropospheric Delays (ZTDs) estimated from 52 DORIS and GPS station pairs co-located at 35 sites over the 2005–2008 period. We find an overall systematic negative mean bias of −4 mm and a median bias of −2 mm, with a large site-to-site scatter and especially stronger biases over South America, potentially linked to remaining problems related to the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) in the current DORIS data processing. The standard deviation of ZTD differences is in the range 4–12 mm over the globe (8 mm on average), with larger values located in the southern hemisphere. The spatial variability of differences is consistent with previous work but remains largely unexplained. DORIS is shown to be much less sensitive to instrumental changes than GPS (only the switch from Alcatel to Starec antenna at Toulouse is detected as an offset of −4 mm in the ZTD time series). On the opposite, discontinuities and spurious annual signals are found in the GPS ZTD solutions. A discontinuity of +5 mm is found on 5 November 2006, linked to the switch from relative to absolute GPS antenna models used in the data processing. The use of modified GPS antennas (e.g. at GODE) or improved antenna models is shown to reduce the spurious annual signal (e.g. from 5 mm to 2 mm at METS). Overall, the agreement between both techniques is good, though DORIS shows a significantly larger random scatter. The high stability and good spatial and temporal coverage make DORIS a potential candidate technique for meteorology and climate studies as long as reasonable time averaging can be applied (e.g. differences are reduced from 8.6 to 2.4 mm with 5-day averages) and no real-time application is considered. This technique could be considered as a potential contributor to Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) for climatology.     

The Lunar Terrestrial Observatory: Observing the Earth using photometers on the Moon’s surface

The Earth’s albedo is one of the least studied fundamental climate parameters. The albedo is a bi-directional variable, and there is a high degree of anisotropy in the light reflected from a given terrestrial surface. However, simultaneously observing from all points on Earth at all reflecting angles is a practical impossibility. Therefore, all measurements from which albedo can be inferred require assumptions and/or modeling to derive a good estimate. Nowadays, albedo measurements are taken regularly either from low Earth orbit satellite platforms or from ground-based measurements of the earthshine from the dark side of the Moon. But the results from these different measurements are not in satisfactory agreement. Clearly, the availability of different albedo databases and their inter-comparisons can help to constrain the assumptions necessary to reduce the uncertainty of the albedo estimates. In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the development of robotic and manned exploration missions to the Moon. Returning to the Moon will enable diverse exploration and scientific opportunities. Here we discuss the possibility of a lunar-based Earth radiation budget monitoring experiment, the Lunar Terrestrial Observatory, and evaluate its scientific and practical advantages compared to the other, more standard, observing platforms. We conclude that a lunar-based terrestrial observatory can enable advances in Earth sciences, complementary to the present efforts, and to our understanding of the Earth’s climate.     

The Big Pine Creek watershed and climate change: A trend analysis of Landsat surface reflectance and PRISM datasets over the last 3 decades

Recent variations in normal meteorological conditions indicate the earth’s climate is changing in ways that may impact delicate ecological balances in sensitive regions. Identifying how those changes are affecting the biosphere is essential if we are going to be able to adapt to those changes and to potentially mitigate their harmful consequences. This paper presents a time series study of an alpine ecosystem in the Big Pine Creek watershed in California’s Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain’s. Raw Landsat data covering the years 1984 through 2011 is converted to observed surface reflectance and analyzed for trends that would indicate a change in the ecosystem. We found that over the time period of the study, observed surface reflectance shows a general decline across the spectrum while our analysis of environmental data demonstrates statistically significant increases in temperatures. While declining reflectance in the visible and short wave bands are indicators of increased surface cover, the fact that the IR band also shows declines is consistent with a decline in tree density. This study provides a useful insight into the ecological response of the Big Pine Creek watershed to recent climate change. These findings suggest that alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to increasing temperatures. If these results are replicated in other alpine watersheds it will demonstrate that the biosphere is already showing the effects of a warmer environment.     

太阳活动与全球气候变化

太阳不断向地球辐射电磁波和粒子, 太阳辐射是地球气候系统最主要的能量来源. 地球气候系统对太阳活动的响应是一个复杂的过程, 包括辐射过程、动力学过程以及微观物理过程等. 根据太阳辐射的卫星观测结果和重建结果, 例举了古气候、温度、大气环流和云量等方面太阳影响气候的观测证据, 论述了太阳影响气候的三种可能机制, 即太阳总辐射变化可以影响地表温度, 并通过海-气耦合改变大气环流; 太阳紫外辐射通过调制平流层的温度和风场影响下面的对流层; 太阳通过行星际磁场调制银河宇宙线, 而银河宇宙线通过电离大气影响云量, 进而改变地球的能量收支.      

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

Solar rhythms in the characteristics of the Arctic frontal zone in the North Atlantic

Long-term changes of the Arctic frontal zone characteristics near the south-eastern coasts of Greenland were considered, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data being used. It was found that in the cold half of the year the temperature gradients in the layer 1000–500 hPa in the region under study reveal strong ∼10-yr and ∼22-yr periodicities that seem to be related to solar activity cycles. The results obtained suggest the influence of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the structure of the temperature field of the troposphere resulting in the changes of the temperature contrasts in the Arctic frontal zone that, in turn, may affect the intensity of cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. The detected effects seem to indicate an important part of frontal zones in the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray variation influence on the development of extratropical baric systems. It is suggested that the variations of the temperature gradients revealed in the Arctic frontal zone are due to the radiative forcing of cloudiness changes which may be associated with geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray variations.     

九寨机场航务代理工作浅谈

在分析了九寨机场的气象特点以及环境因素对航空器造成的影响的基础上,就如何做好九寨机场的航务代理工作提出了合理建议和措施,这对提高航班正常率非常重要.