美、俄航天器与"国际空间站"交会的轨道分析

发射航天器与"国际空间站"进行交会对接是美国和俄罗斯两国常规性的航天活动,在每次这类飞行的全过程中因特网的有关网站都将北美航天防空司令部(NORAD)追踪测量得到的航天器的轨道根数予以公布。据此对2005年7月美国航天飞机与"国际空间站"的交会对接以及2006年3-4月俄罗斯的联盟TMA-8载人飞船与"国际空间站"的交会对接过程的轨道进行了分析。     

Estimation of ballistic coefficients of low altitude debris objects from historical two line elements

This paper presents a new method for estimating ballistic coefficients (BCs) of low perigee debris objects from their historical two line elements (TLEs). The method uses the drag perturbation equation of the semi-major axis of the orbit. For an object with perigee altitude below 700 km, the variation in the mean semi-major axis derived from the TLE is mainly caused by the atmospheric drag effect, and therefore is used as the source in the estimation of the ballistic coefficient. The method is tested using the GRACE satellites, and a number of debris objects with external ballistic coefficient values, and agreements of about 10% are achieved.     

Estimation of ballistic coefficients of space debris using the ratios between different objects

This paper proposes a new method to estimate the ballistic coefficient (BC) of low earth orbit space debris.The data sources are the historical two-line elements (TLEs).Since the secular variation of semi-major axes is mainly caused by the drag perturbation for space objects with perigee altitude below 600 km,the ballistic coefficients are estimated based on variation of the mean semi-major axes derived from the TLEs.However,the approximate parameters used in the calcu lation have error,especially when the upper atmosphere densities are difficult to obtain and always estimated by empirical model.The proportional errors of the approximate parameters are cancelled out in the form of ratios,greatly mitigating the effects of model error.This method has been also been validated for space objects with perigee altitude higher than 600 km.The relative errors of esti mated BC values from the new method are significantly smaller than those from the direct estimation methods used in numerical experiments.The estimated BC values are used for the prediction of the semi-major axes,and good performance is obtained.This process is also a feasible method for prediction over a long period of time without an orbital propagator model.     

Accurate orbit predictions for debris orbit manoeuvre using ground-based lasers

Orbit manoeuvre of low Earth orbiting (LEO) debris using ground-based lasers has been proposed as a cost-effective means to avoid debris collisions. This requires the orbit of the debris object to be determined and predicted accurately so that the laser beam can be locked on the debris without the loss of valuable laser operation time. This paper presents the method and results of a short-term accurate LEO (<900 km in altitude) debris orbit prediction study using sparse laser ranging data collected by the EOS Space Debris Tracking System (SDTS). A main development is the estimation of the ballistic coefficients of the LEO objects from their archived long-term two line elements (TLE). When an object is laser tracked for two passes over about 24 h, orbit prediction (OP) accuracy of 10–20 arc seconds for the next 24–48 h can be achieved – the accuracy required for laser debris manoeuvre. The improvements in debris OP accuracy are significant in other applications such as debris conjunction analyses and the realisation of daytime debris laser tracking.     

Nonlinear interval analysis of rotor response with joints under uncertainties

The dynamic influence of joints in aero-engine rotor systems is investigated in this paper. Firstly, the tangential stiffness and loss factor are obtained from an isolated lap joint setup with dynamic excitation experiments. Also, the influence of the normal contact pressure and the excitation level are examined, which revel the uncertainty in joints. Then, the updated Thin Layer Elements (TLEs) method with fitted parameters based on the experiments is established to simulate the dynamic properties of joints on the interface. The response of the rotor subjected to unbalance excitation is calculated, and the results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Meanwhile, using the Chebyshev inclusion function and a direct iteration algorithm, a nonlinear interval analysis method is established to consider the uncertainty of parameters in joints. The accuracy is proved by comparison with results obtained using the Monte-Carlo method. Combined with the updated TLEs, the nonlinear Chebyshev method is successfully applied on a finite model of a rotor. The study shows that substantial attention should be paid to the dynamical design for the joint in rotor systems, the dynamic properties of joints under complex loading and the corresponding interval analysis method need to be intensively studied.     

Optimising filtering of two-line element sets to increase re-entry prediction accuracy for GTO objects

Predicting re-entry epoch of space objects enables managing the risk to ground population. Predictions are particularly difficult for objects in highly-elliptical orbits, and important for objects with components that can survive re-entry, e.g. rocket bodies (R/Bs). This paper presents a methodology to filter two-line element sets (TLEs) to facilitate accurate re-entry prediction of such objects. Difficulties in using TLEs for precise analyses are highlighted and a set of filters that identifies erroneous element sets is developed. The filter settings are optimised using an artificially generated TLE time series. Optimisation results are verified on real TLEs by analysing the automatically found outliers for exemplar R/Bs. Based on a study of 96 historical re-entries, it is shown that TLE filtering is necessary on all orbital elements that are being used in a given analysis in order to avoid considerably inaccurate results.     

平均轨道根数与密切轨道根数的互换

基于双行轨道根数和简化普适摄动算法,提出平均轨道根数与密切轨道根数的互换算法。以在轨Tan-DEM-X编队的双星为例进行仿真。与传统的只考虑J2项摄动短周期影响的转换算法相比,本文提出的互换算法精度更高：由平均轨道根数转换的密切轨道根数与STK 8软件给出的结果一致;由密切轨道根数转换的平均轨道根数与北美防空司令部公布的双行轨道根数一致。仿真结果表明该互换方法具有科学性和工程应用价值。     

TLE数据误差与基于TLE数据的交会预报分析

目前普遍使用TLE数据进行在轨物体的危险交会预报. TLE数据误差不仅会影响交会预报的准确性, 还是计算碰撞概率的必要参数, 因此, 只有准确估计TLE数据误差, 才能得到可信的碰撞概率数值. 本文采用两种方法, 即TLE数据自比和与高精度轨道预报数据相比较的方法, 计算TLE数据误差, 并分别利用TLE数据和高精度数据计算同一交会, 比较两种数据预报的交会结果差异. 结果表明, 采用TLE根数自比方法的计算误差偏小, 而使用精轨数据作为校准数据所得到的TLE误差更接近真实误差, 计算碰撞概率更为合理, 有利于减少虚警.      

一种LSTM模型预测BC值的空间碎片无控再入预报方法

提出一种利用长短周期记忆(LSTM)神经网络模型动态预测无控再入过程中弹道系数(BC)值实现空间碎片高精度再入时刻预报。通过利用空间碎片两行根数(TLE)、简化通用摄动模型(SGP4)与公开的物体陨落时间作为实测数据样本,利用迭代修正BC值方法构建预测模型的训练集,由此构造用于预测BC值的LSTM模型预测BC,再采用高精度轨道外推动力学模型配合预测BC值预报再入时刻,结果表明基于LSTM模型预测BC的空间碎片再入时刻预报方法是可行的,在95%的置信度内,90天以上的再入时刻预报精度小于10%,30天预报精度小于8%。