太阳10.7 cm射电辐射流量预报方法初探

引进“相似周”方法,通过两种方式对第23周太阳10.7cm辐射流量（F10.7）月均值进行预报和预报,由“相似周”方法得到的第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑预测值来预测F10.7月均值和直接采用“相似周”方法对F10.7月均平滑值进行预测,通过对两种预报试验结果分析,得到以下结论。（1）两种预测结果与实际都比较吻合,都得到双峰结构。（2）直接通过相似周预测的F10.7的月均值结果较间接通过太阳黑子数的预测结果所推断的F10.7预测结果更接近实际观测结果。（3）使用“相似周”,预报方法,可以给出F10.7比较精细的剖面结构,这是其他普通预报方法很难做到的。     

2007-2009谷年期间高热层大气密度的变化

在第23至第24太阳活动周的峰年之间,太阳活动谷年具有持续时间长,极低F_10.7太阳辐射通量（低至65）和超长期的零太阳黑子数记录等特点,因此是观测和研究在这种特殊背景下热层大气变化的极好机会.尤其是能充分理解和掌握在宁静环境下热层大气密度对弱太阳活动和小地磁扰动的响应特性.本文利用高度650 km以上星载大气密度探测器2007—2009年的连续探测数据进行分析,结果表明,在太阳辐射通量F_10.7极低值期间,较高热层大气密度对F_10.7的起伏具有更显著的响应变化.当F_10.7由70降至65时,日均大气密度会有4～5倍的显著降变,远大于通常大气模式中的降变值.同样在F_10.7极低值期间,较高热层大气密度对小地磁扰动也具有显著的响应增变,当日K_p指数之和由23增至30时,较高热层大气密度则会有80%～160%的强增变.     

太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅰ)

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。     

E10.7指数在软X射线谱段的修正应用

表征EUV辐射通量的E10.7指数在越来越多的研究和应用中被用来代替传统的F10.7指数.X射线对地球D层和E层的电离起着重要作用,但由于D层观测数据的不足和E层电离源的多样性,难以被用来考虑X射线对电离层的影响.火星电离层下层的电离源几乎是单一的软X射线,这为研究X射线对电离层的作用提供了可能性.通过研究火星电离层下层的峰值电子浓度对E10.7的依赖关系,发现即便经过必要的修正,这种关系对不同的观测时段并不具备一致性.通过理论推导和数据分析,得到了一种特别用于描述太阳软X射线辐射通量的新指数,即Xs指数,用来替代E10.7指数.Xs指数在描述火星电离层下层对太阳辐射的依赖关系时,不同的观测时段有很好的一致性,表明Xs指数在表征太阳软X射线辐射强度方面比E10.7指数更加合适.      

Monthly mean foF2 model for an African low-latitude station and comparison with IRI

We have employed the hourly values of the ionospheric F-region critical frequency (foF2) obtained from Ouagadougou ionosonde, Burkina Faso (geographic coordinates 12° N, 1.8° W) during the interval of 1985–1995 (solar cycle 22) and solar radio flux of 10 cm wavelength (F10.7) to develop a local model (LM) for the African low-latitude station. The model was developed from regression analysis method, using the two-segmented regression analysis. We validated LM with foF2 data from Korhogo observatory, Cote d’Ivorie (geographical coordinates 9.3° N, 5.4° W). LM as well as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) agrees well with observations. LM gave some improvement on the IRI-predicted foF2 values at the sunrise (06 LT) at all solar flux levels and in all seasons except June solstice. The performance of the models at the representing the salient features of the equatorial foF2 was presented. Considering daytime and nighttime performances, LM and IRI are comparable in low solar activity (LSA), LM performed better than IRI in moderate solar activity (MSA), while IRI performed better than LM in high solar activity (HSA). CCIR has a root mean square error (r.m.s.e), which is only 0.10 MHz lower than that of LM while LM has r.m.s.e, which is about 0.05 MHz lower than that of URSI. In general, our result shows that performance of IRI, especially the CCIR option of the IRI, is quite comparable with the LM. The improved performance of IRI is a reflection of the numerous contributions of ionospheric physicists in the African region, larger volume of data for the IRI and the diversity of data sources, as well as the successes of the IRI task force activities.     

Dynamics of global electron content in 1998–2005 derived from global GPS data and IRI modeling

We analyzed the dynamics of global electron content (GEC) for the period 1998–2005 and compared the estimated GEC with variations of the 10.7-cm solar radio emission and with and with GEC values obtained with IRI-2001. We found a strong resemblance between the curves’ shapes for the experimental and modeled GEC: strong semiannual variations are discernible in these series and both curves tend to increase the absolute GEC value during the period of maximum of solar activity. However, there are some significant distinctions, such as absence of 27-day fluctuations in the series of GEC computed by the IRI-2001. On the contrary, observational GEC reflects well dynamics of solar activity: 27-day variations of GEC are very similar to the ones of the index F10.7, but GEC undergoes a lagging of about of 30–60 h as compared to value of the F10.7 index. The relative amplitude of 27-day variations decreases from 8% at the rising and falling solar activity to 2% at the period of its maximum.     

电离层N_mF_2的准27天变化

利用1969-1980年期间东亚和澳大利亚扇区不同地磁纬度11个台站的电离层垂直探测数据,采用带通滤波的方法,分析了白天NmF2的准27天变化特征及其与太阳活动指数F10.7的相关关系.结果表明,在大多数年里,太阳活动指数F10.7和NmF2的短周期(2～70天)频谱中,27天周期附近都出现明显的极大值;在27天波段,F10.7和NmF2的标准偏差有逐年变化特征,F10.7的平均标准偏差为10.9%,NmF2 的标准偏差随地磁纬度变化,赤道地区最小,纬度越高标准偏差越大,11个站的平均标准偏差为8.2%;在27天波段,NmF2与F10.7存在显著的相关,在0.05的显著水平下,显著相关的概率在90%以上;NmF2相对于F10.7的准27天变化平均滞后2天左右;从总体上看,太阳EUV辐射的准27天变化是造成NmF2准27天变化的主要原因.     

奇异谱分析在太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预测中的应用

首次尝试利用信号处理技术奇异谱分析方法预测太阳活动低年未来27天太阳10．7cm射电流量．选取的预报试验时间段是2004年4月30日至5月30日,此试验期内太阳活动水平相对较低．在样本时间序列的构建上,吸取了相似周数据分析思路,采取的是23周实时观测数据与其相似周第20周下降年部分数据相结合的方式,既增加了样本长度又避开了太阳活动的活跃期．这31天的预报试验结果表明,大部分情况下,预报值基本上体现出F10．7的变化趋势,平均相对误差为10．5％;比同时期美国空军预测值的平均相对误差小,前者为11．3％,后者为14．6％;除两天外,SSA每一次27天的预报结果的平均相对误差比美国空军(AAF)的要小;对不同的时间提前量而言,AAF提前1天到提前12天的预报准确性较奇异谱分析方法要高,即AAF较短期的预报效果更好．     

Characteristics of equatorial nighttime spread F – An analysis on season-longitude,solar activity and triggering causes

To understand global variability and triggering mechanisms of ionospheric nighttime equatorial spread F (ESF), we analyzed measurements from satellite and a ground-based GPS station for the years between 2010 and 2017. In this study we present seasonal-longitudinal as well as monthly variability of ESF occurrence for solar minimum and yearly variations of ESF occurrence for solar maximum and minimum periods. One of the long standing open questions in the study of ESF is what exactly initiates the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) plasma instability growth. This question is the focus of the present work. Zonal background eastward electric field and E × B upward plasma drift speed patterns are found to be critically important in understanding plasma irregularity formation. In addition to particular patterns observed on these parameters, the background plasma density in the local evening hours just before the onset of ESF occurrence is very important. Stronger plasma densities just before the onset of irregularities resulted in stronger plasma irregularities, while relatively less dense plasma just before the onset of irregularities resulted in relatively lower plasma irregularities. Seasonal variations in ESF activity between March and September equinox seasons with comparable plasma densities can be defined in terms of the rate of change of solar flux F10.7 (dF10.7/day) index. Strongest ESF occurrence and strongest dF10.7/day are measured in the same month out of all other months in 2016 and 2017. Longitudinal variations of ESF activity in our measurements are related to longitudinal variations of plasma densities. We also found that ESF occurrence is better correlated with rate of change of F10.7 index for months in equinox seasons than for months in solstice seasons for the years between 2013 and 2016.     

LSTM神经网络在太阳F10.7射电流量中期预报中的应用

F_10.7指数作为大气密度经验模型的重要输入参量，其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.研究发现，太阳活动表现出长时间尺度上平均11年和中短时间尺度平均27天的周期性变化特征.依据这一观测事实，基于长短期记忆单元（Long Short-term Memory，LSTM）递归神经网络方法进行F_10.7指数未来27天的中期预报.利用一个连续长时段F_10.7数据作为训练数据，构建LSTM神经网络训练和预测模型，分别预测太阳活动高低年未来27天的F_10.7指数.结果表明，太阳活动高年的第27天F_10.7指数预报平均相对误差最优可达10%以内，低年最优可达2%以内.