Superluminous supernovae: no threat from eta Carinae

Recently, Supernova 2006gy was noted as the most luminous ever recorded, with a total radiated energy of approximately 10(44) Joules. It was proposed that the progenitor may have been a massive evolved star similar to eta Carinae, which resides in our own Galaxy at a distance of about 2.3 kpc. eta Carinae appears ready to detonate. Although it is too distant to pose a serious threat as a normal supernova, and given that its rotation axis is unlikely to produce a gamma-ray burst oriented toward Earth, eta Carinae is about 30,000 times nearer than 2006gy, and we re-evaluate it as a potential superluminous supernova. We have found that, given the large ratio of emission in the optical to the X-ray, atmospheric effects are negligible. Ionization of the atmosphere and concomitant ozone depletion are unlikely to be important. Any cosmic ray effects should be spread out over approximately 10(4) y and similarly unlikely to produce any serious perturbation to the biosphere. We also discuss a new possible effect of supernovae-e-ndocrine disruption induced by blue light near the peak of the optical spectrum. This is a possibility for nearby supernovae at distances too large to be considered "dangerous" for other reasons. However, due to reddening and extinction by the interstellar medium, eta Carinae is unlikely to trigger such effects to any significant degree.     

Astrophysical ionizing radiation and Earth: a brief review and census of intermittent intense sources

Cosmic radiation backgrounds are a constraint on life, and their distribution will affect the Galactic Habitable Zone. Life on Earth has developed in the context of these backgrounds, and characterizing event rates will elaborate the important influences. This in turn can be a base for comparison with other potential life-bearing planets. In this review, we estimate the intensities and rates of occurrence of many kinds of strong radiation bursts by astrophysical entities, ranging from gamma-ray bursts at cosmological distances to the Sun itself. Many of these present potential hazards to the biosphere; on timescales long compared with human history, the probability of an event intense enough to disrupt life on the land surface or in the oceans becomes large. Both photons (e.g., X-rays) and high-energy protons and other nuclei (often called "cosmic rays") constitute hazards. For either species, one of the mechanisms that comes into play even at moderate intensities is the ionization of Earth's atmosphere, which leads through chemical changes (specifically, depletion of stratospheric ozone) to increased ultraviolet B flux from the Sun reaching the surface. UVB is extremely hazardous to most life due to its strong absorption by the genetic material DNA and subsequent breaking of chemical bonds. This often leads to mutation or cell death. It is easily lethal to the microorganisms that lie at the base of the food chain in the ocean. We enumerate the known sources of radiation and characterize their intensities at Earth and rates or upper limits on these quantities. When possible, we estimate a "lethal interval," our best estimate of how often a major extinction-level event is probable given the current state of knowledge; we base these estimates on computed or expected depletion of stratospheric ozone. In general, moderate-level events are dominated by the Sun, but the far more severe infrequent events are probably dominated by gamma-ray bursts and supernovae. We note for the first time that so-called "short-hard" gamma-ray bursts are a substantial threat, comparable in magnitude to supernovae and greater than that of the higher-luminosity long bursts considered in most past work. Given their precursors, short bursts may come with little or no warning.