Effects on winter circulation of short and long term solar wind changes

Indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation show correlations on the day-to-day timescale with the solar wind speed (SWS). Minima in the indices were found on days of SWS minima during years of high stratospheric aerosol loading. The spatial distribution of surface pressure changes during 1963–2011 with day-to-day changes in SWS shows a pattern resembling the NAO. Such a pattern was noted for year-to-year variations by Boberg and Lundstedt (2002), who compared NAO variations with the geo-effective solar wind electric field (the monthly average SWS multiplied by the average southward component, i.e., negative Bz component, of the interplanetary magnetic field). The spatial distribution of the correlations of geopotential height changes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the SWS; the geo-effective electric field (SWS∗Bz); and the solar 10.7 cm flux suggests that solar wind inputs connected to the troposphere via the global electric circuit, together with solar ultraviolet irradiance acting on the stratosphere, affect regional atmospheric dynamics.     

A working hypothesis for connections between electrically-induced changes in cloud microphysics and storm vorticity,with possible effects on circulation

This paper outlines, and explores the uncertainties in, hypothesized connections between a series of processes that could explain two long-standing puzzles; those of (1) the observed winter storm vorticity responses to atmospheric energy inputs that change the ionosphere–earth current density, J_z, that appear to involve storm invigoration, and (2) changes in anti-cyclonic blocking and circulation that include the observed colder winters in Great Britain and western Europe at solar minima, and especially at extended solar minima. A working hypothesis for the mechanism responsible for (1) is that the flow of J_z through conductivity gradients, as in stratified cloud layers and fog, especially with sea-salt aerosol haze over the high latitude winter oceans, deposits electric changes on droplets and aerosol particles; most importantly on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). These electric charges modulate scavenging of the particles in clouds and haze layers, increasing the concentration of small CCN and decreasing the concentration of large CCN. When further cloud formation occurs there is increased concentration of small droplets and decreased concentration of large ones, reducing coalescence and the production of rain. Thus updrafts carry more liquid water above the freezing level, and there the increased production of ice releases more latent heat and invigorates the updraft (the Rosenfeld mechanism), leading to increased vorticity. Here we explore the major uncertainties for the reality of the above chain of physical processes. A consequence of cumulative cyclonic vorticity increases is increases in downstream anti-cyclonic blocking. A further working hypothesis for (2) is that the invigoration may be large enough to contribute to the observed increases in blocking in winters at solar minima (high J_z) in the North Atlantic, that result in colder winters in the UK and northern Europe.     

The role of volcanic aerosols and relativistic electrons in modulating winter storm vorticity

Small changes in the vorticity of winter storms, responding to solar wind variations, are found in winters from 1957 to 2011, and are greater for winters with higher levels of stratospheric volcanic aerosols. Using 1993–2011 data, the response of the vorticity area index (VAI) is shown to be of larger amplitude when the days of minima in the relativistic electron flux (REF) precipitating from the radiation belts are used, instead of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings, as key days in superposed epoch analyses. The HCS crossings mostly occur within a few days of the REF minima. The VAI is an objective measure of the area of high cyclonic vorticity, and for the present work is derived from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses of global meteorological data. The VAI dependencies on the stratospheric aerosol content (SAC) and the REF are consistent with a model in which the ionosphere-earth current density (J_z) affects cloud microphysics. One of the ways in which J_z is modulated is by changes in stratospheric column resistance (S), which is increased by stratospheric aerosols. Because S is in series with the tropospheric column resistance (T), J_z modulation by REF requires that S be not negligible with respect to T. So the J_z modulation and the VAI response appear when the SAC is very high, or the REF reductions (which also increase S) are very deep, and when the product of the SAC and the reciprocal of the REF exceeds a threshold value dependent on T.     

Global electric circuit modulation of winter cyclone vorticity in the northern high latitudes

Small changes in extended winter (November–March) 500 hPa vorticity area index (VAI) values for the 60–80°N latitude band are shown to be positively correlated with changes in a proxy for the high latitude ionosphere-to-surface current density _Jz$J_z$.     

The links between atmospheric vorticity,radiation belt electrons,and the solar wind

The links between winter storm intensity and solar wind variations associated with Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) crossings are shown to be present in 1997 through 2002 data without the necessity of high stratospheric aerosol loading.     

Influence of Solar Wind on the Global Electric Circuit,and Inferred Effects on Cloud Microphysics,Temperature, and Dynamics in the Troposphere

There are at least three independent ways in which the solar wind modulates the flow of current density (Jz) in the global electric circuit. These are (A) changes in the galactic cosmic ray energy spectrum, (B) changes in the precipitation of relativistic electrons from the magnetosphere, and (C) changes in the ionospheric potential distribution in the polar caps due to magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. The current density J _z flows between the ionosphere and the surface, and as it passes through conductivity gradients it generates space charge concentrations dependent on J _z and the conductivity gradient. The gradients are large at the surfaces of clouds and space charge concentrations of order 1000 to 10,000 elementary charges per cm³ can be generated at cloud tops. The charge transfers to droplets, many of which are evaporating at the cloud-clear air interface. The charge remains on the residual evaporation nuclei with a lifetime against leakage of order 1000 sec, and for a longer period the nuclei also retain coatings of sulfate and organic compounds adsorbed by the droplet while in the cloud.The charged evaporation nuclei become well mixed with more droplets in many types of clouds with penetrative mixing. The processes of entrainment and evaporation are also efficient for these clouds. The collection of such nuclei by nearby droplets is greatly increased by the electrical attraction between the charge on the particle and the image charge that it creates on the droplet. This process is called electroscavenging. Because the charge on the evaporation nuclei is derived from the original space charge, it depends on J _z, giving a rate of electroscavenging responsive to the solar wind inputs.There may be a number of ways in which the electroscavenging has consequences for weather and climate. One possibility is enhanced production of ice. The charged evaporation nuclei have been found to be good ice forming nuclei because of their coatings, and so in supercooled clouds droplet freezing can occur by contact ice nucleation, as the evaporation nuclei are electroscavenged. Although quantitative models for the all the cloud microphysical processes that may be involved have not yet been produced, we show that for many clouds, especially those with broad droplet size distributions, relatively high droplet concentrations, and cloud top temperatures just below freezing, this process is likely to dominate over other primary ice nucleation processes. In these cases there are likely to be effects on cloud albedo and rates of sedimentation of ice, and these will depend on J _z.For an increase in ice production in thin clouds such as altocumulus or stratocumulus the main effect is a decrease in albedo to incoming solar radiation, and in opacity to outgoing longwave radiation. At low latitudes the surface and troposphere heat, and at high latitudes in winter they cool. The change in meridional temperature gradient affects the rate of cyclogenesis, and the amplitude of planetary waves. For storm clouds, as in winter cyclones, the effect of increased ice formation is mainly to increase the rate of glaciation of lower level clouds by the seeder-feeder process. The increase in precipitation efficiency increases the rate of transfer of latent heat between the air mass and the surface. In most cyclones this is likely to result in intensification, producing changes in the vorticity area index as observed. Cyclone intensification also increases the amplitude of planetary waves, and shifts storm tracks, as observed.In this paper we first describe the production of space charge and the way in which it may influence the rate of ice nucleation. Then we review theory and observations of the solar wind modulation of J _z, and the correlated changes in atmospheric temperature and dynamics in the troposphere. The correlations are present for each input, (A, B, and C), and the detailed patterns of responses provide support for the inferred electrical effects on the physics of clouds, affecting precipitation, temperature and dynamics.     

Time dependent charging of layer clouds in the global electric circuit

There is much observational data consistent with the hypothesis that the ionosphere-earth current density (J_z) in the global electric circuit, which is modulated by both solar activity and thunderstorm activity, affects atmospheric dynamics and cloud cover. One candidate mechanism involves J_z causing the accumulation of space charge on droplets and aerosol particles, that affects the rate of scavenging of the latter, notably those of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and Ice Forming Nuclei (IFN) (  and ). Space charge is the difference, per unit volume, between total positive and total negative electrical charge that is on droplets, aerosol particles (including the CCN and IFN) and air ions. The cumulative effects of the scavenging in stratiform clouds and aerosol layers in an air mass over the lifetime of the aerosol particles of 1–10 days affects the concentration and size distribution of the CCN, so that in subsequent episodes of cloud formation (including deep convective clouds) there can be effects on droplet size distribution, coagulation, precipitation processes, and even storm dynamics.