海南地区电离层闪烁监测及初步统计分析

为开展赤道区的电离层闪烁形态特性及相关物理过程的研究,空间中心海南台站建立了一套GPS电离层闪烁监测系统．该系统是利用Plessey GPS Builder-2系统开发的,对软件的源码进行了修改,使其能以高采样率(50／s)同时并行记录11个通道GPS信号强度数据．对2003年7—12月间L-波段电离层闪烁事件的初步统计分析结果表明,电离层闪烁主要发生在日落后到午夜附近,其中9—11月较7—8月闪烁发生和结束的时间明显提前;电离层闪烁发生的频率和强度在9—11月较其他月份明显增强,其中10月达到最大;电离层闪烁的逐日变化具有很强的随机性,闪烁的发生在秋分附近9月底到10月中旬的磁静日期间达到最大;太阳和地磁活动的增强通常会抑制电离层闪烁的发生,这种情形在秋分附近尤为明显．     

1998年5月磁暴事件期间全球电离层响应形态与机制的研究

利用全球40余个电离层台站的f0F2观测数据，采取对经度进行分区处理的方法，通过计算各台站f0F2参数对其月中的偏离百分比，对1998年5月大磁爆期间的电离层扰动形态进行了分析，并对可能的扰动机制进行了探讨，结果表明本次磁暴事件中，在磁暴主要活动相期间的电离层扰动与暴环流理论所描述的电脑层扰动特征相符，但在恢复相后期欧洲扇区台站出现的正相扰动似不能用暴环流理论来解释，它可能对应期间的行星行条件（太阳风与行星际磁场）的变化有关。     

Optimal assimilation for ionospheric weather – Theoretical aspect

Observation, specification and prediction of ionospheric weather are the key scientific pursuits of space physicists, which largely based on an optimal assimilation system. The optimal assimilation system, or commonly called data assimilation system, consists of dynamic process, observation system and optimal estimation procedure. We attempt to give a complete framework in this paper under which the data assimilation procedure carries through. We discuss some crucial issues of data assimilation as follows: modeling a dynamic system for ionospheric weather; state estimation for static or steady system in sense of optimization and likelihood; state and its uncertainty estimation for dynamic process. Meanwhile we also discuss briefly the observability of an observation system; system parameter identification. Some data assimilation procedures existed at present are reviewed in the framework of this paper. As an example, a second order dynamic system is discussed in more detail to illustrate the specific optimal assimilation procedure, ranging from modeling the system, state and its uncertainty calculation, to the quantitatively integration of dynamic law, measurement to significantly reduce the estimation error. The analysis shows that the optimal assimilation model, with mathematical core of optimal estimation, differs from the theoretical, empirical and semi-empirical models in assimilating measured data, being constrained by physical law and being optimized respectively. The data assimilation technique, due to its optimization and integration feature, could obtain better accurate results than those obtained by dynamic process, measurement or their statistical analysis alone. The model based on optimal assimilation meets well with the criterion of the model or algorithm assessment by ‘space weather metrics’. More attention for optimal assimilation procedure creation should be paid to transition matrix finding, which is usually not easy for practical space weather system. High performance computing hardware and software studies should be promoted further so as to meet the requirement of large storage and extensive computation in the optimal estimation. The discussion in this paper is appropriate for the static or steady state or transition process of dynamic system. Many phenomena in space environment are unstable and chaos. So space environment study should include and integrate these two branches of learning. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

全球电离层对2000年4月6-7日磁暴事件的响应

利用分布于全球的电离层台站的测高仪观测数据,对扰动期间,foF2值与其宁静期间参考值进行比较,研究了2000年4月6—7日磁暴期间全球不同区域电离层的响应形态,并通过对比磁扰期间NmF2的变化与由MSISR90经验模式估算的中性大气浓度比(no／nN2)的变化,探讨了本次事件期间的电离层暴扰动机制．结果表明,在磁暴主相和恢复相早期,出现了全球性的电离层F2层负相暴效应．最大负相暴效应出现在磁暴恢复相早期,即电离层暴恢复相开始时间滞后于磁暴恢复相开始时间．在磁暴恢复相后期,一些台站出现正相扰动．研究结果表明,本次事件期间的电离层暴主要是由磁暴活动而诱发的热层暴环流引起的．