A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Comparison of ≳40 keV Electron Events at High and Low Heliolatitudes: Ulysses/HI-SCALE and ACE/EPAM

We have performed a joint survey of anisotropic ≳40 keV electron events from August 1997 to September 2000 using the matched detectors on the Ulysses (ULS)/HI-SCALE and the ACE/EPAM instruments. A computer algorithm selected events with strong, statistically significant pitch-angle anisotropies. Electron pitch-angle distributions at ACE (∼1 AU) are often ‘beams’ that are strongly collimated along the local interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). These flare-associated impulsive injections can display rapid rise times (∼15 min) and slower decays, or more irregular intensity histories. At ULS, the electron intensities are lower and the time histories smoother, but strong anisotropies are still observable, indicating direct, nearly field-aligned propagation outward from the Sun. We focus on four event periods, selected from the survey, during times when the angle between the footpoints of the IMF lines intersecting ACE and ULS is small. These events span three full years and cover a wide range of distances and heliographic latitudes. We found one reasonably good association between impulsive electron events at ACE and ULS, and two events with small field-aligned gradients. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An Introduction to CMEs and Energetic Particles

Energetic particle observations in the interplanetary medium provide fundamental information about the origin, development and structure of coronal mass ejections. This paper reviews the status of our understanding of the ways in which particles are energised at the Sun in association with CMEs. This understanding will remain incomplete until the relationship between CMEs and flares is determined and we know the topology of the associated magnetic fields. The paper also discusses the characteristics of interplanetary CMEs that may be probed using particle observations.     

The influence of in situ pitch-angle cosine coverage on the derivation of solar energetic particle injection and interplanetary transport conditions

Modelization of solar energetic particle (SEP) events aims at revealing the general scenario of SEP injection and interplanetary propagation and relies on in situ measurements of SEP distributions. In this paper, we study to what extent the LEFS60 and LEMS30 electron telescopes of the Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM) on board the Advanced Composition Explorer are able to scan pitch-angle distributions during near-relativistic electron events. We estimate the percentage of the pitch-angle cosine range scanned by both telescopes for a given magnetic field configuration. We obtain that the pitch-angle coverage is always higher for LEFS60 than for LEMS30. Therefore, LEFS60 provides more information of the directional distribution of the observed particles. The aim of the paper is to study the relevance of the coverage when fitting LEFS60 particle measurements in order to infer the solar injection and the interplanetary transport conditions. By studying synthetic electron events, we obtain that at least 70% of the pitch-angle cosine range needs to be scanned by the telescope. Otherwise, multiple scenarios can explain the data.     

Joint Ulysses and ACE observations of a magnetic cloud and the associated solar energetic particle event

On day 49 of 1999 a strong interplanetary shock was observed by the ACE spacecraft located at 1 AU from the Sun. This shock was followed 10 hours later by a magnetic cloud (MC). A large solar energetic particle (SEP) event was observed in association with the arrival of the shock and the MC at ACE. The Ulysses spacecraft, located at 22° S heliolatitude and nearly the same ecliptic longitude as ACE, observed a large SEP event beginning on day 54 that peaked with the arrival of a solar wind and magnetic field disturbance on day 61. A magnetic cloud was observed by Ulysses on days 63–64. We suggest a scenario in which both spacecraft intercepted the same MC, although sampling different regions of it. We describe the effects that the MC produced on the streaming of energetic particles at both spacecraft. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Onset study of impulsive solar energetic particleevents

Impulsive solar energetic particle (SEP) events are associated with impulsive X-ray flares, energetic electrons,and enhanced heavy ion abundances. Using instruments on ACE, we have examined the composition and origin of twelve impulsive SEP events from November 1997 to June 2000. All selected impulsive SEP events have enhanced ³He/⁴He ratios compared with the solar wind values. The range of ³He/⁴He ratios varies from 0.01 to 7.8. By assuming scatter-free propagation at zero degree pitch-angle, we fitted the minimum particle path lengths (from 1.2 to 1.4 AU, as expected), and estimated the ion event release time back at the Sun to within better than 30 minutes in most cases. We found only four events in which the release times agree for both 38–50 keV electrons and <1 MeV/nucleon ions. Five of our events have significant differences (>40 minutes) between the electron and ion onset times, all with ions injected later. Three impulsive ion events have no association with any impulsive electron event. Seven events have associated solar electromagnetic signatures (Type III radio bursts and/or X-ray flares).     

26-day Analysis of Energetic Ion Observations at High and Low Heliolatitudes: Ulysses and ACE

We present observations of energetic (0.34–8 MeV) ions from the Ulysses spacecraft during its second ascent to southern high latitude regions of the heliosphere. We cover the period from January 1999 until mid-2000 as Ulysses moved from 5.2 AU and 18° S to 3.5 AU and 55° S. In contrast to the long-lived and well-defined ∼26-day recurrences that were observed throughout Ulysses‘ first southern pass, energetic ion fluxes during the first portion of the Ulysses’ second polar orbit are highly irregular. Although corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are clearly present in solar wind and magnetic field data throughout the first half of 1999, their effects on energetic ion intensities are quite different from what they were in 1992–1993. No dominant strictly recurrent ion flux increases are observed in association with the arrival of these CIRs. Correspondingly, there is no stable structure of large polar coronal holes during the same period. Isolated transient solar energetic particle (SEP) events are observed at low and high latitudes. We compare energetic ion observations from the ACE and Ulysses spacecraft during the first half of 1999 to determine the influence of these SEP events in the observed recurrent CIR structure. Such SEP events occurred only occasionally during 1992–1993, but when they occurred, they obscured the recurrences in a manner similar to that observed in 1999–2000. We therefore conclude that the basic differences in the behavior of energetic ion events between the first and second southern passes are due to the short life of the corotating structure and the higher frequency of SEP events occurring in 1999–2000. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

ICMEs at High Latitudes and in the Outer Heliosphere

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) propagate into the outer heliosphere, where they can have a significant effect on the structure, evolution, and morphology of the solar wind, particularly during times of high solar activity. They are known to play an important role in cosmic ray modulation and the acceleration of energetic particles. ICMEs are also believed to be associated with the large global transient events that swept through the heliosphere during the declining phases of solar cycles 21 and 22. But until recently, little was known about the actual behavior of ICMEs at large heliographic latitudes and large distances from the Sun. Over the past decade, the Ulysses spacecraft has provided in situ observations of ICMEs at moderate heliographic distances over a broad range of heliographic latitudes. More recently, observations of alpha particle enhancements, proton temperature depressions, and magnetic clouds at the Voyager and Pioneer spacecraft have begun to provide comparable information regarding the behavior of ICMEs at extremely large heliocentric distances. At the same time, advances in modeling have provided new insights into the dynamics and evolution of ICMEs and their effects on cosmic rays and energetic particles.     

Advances in modeling gradual solar energetic particle events

Solar energetic particles pose one of the most serious hazards to space probes, satellites and astronauts. The most intense and largest solar energetic particle events are closely associated with fast coronal mass ejections able to drive interplanetary shock waves as they propagate through interplanetary space. The simulation of these particle events requires knowledge of how particles and shocks propagate through the interplanetary medium, and how shocks accelerate and inject particles into interplanetary space. Several models have appeared in the literature that attempt to model these energetic particle events. Each model presents its own simplifying assumptions in order to tackle the series of complex phenomena occurring during the development of such events. The accuracy of these models depends upon the approximations used to describe the physical processes involved in the events. We review the current models used to describe gradual solar energetic particle events, their advances and shortcomings, and their possible applications to space weather forecasting.     

Energetic Particle Observations

The characteristics of solar energetic particles (SEP) as observed in interplanetary space provide fundamental information about the origin of these particles, and the acceleration and propagation processes at the Sun and in interplanetary space. Furthermore, energetic particles provide information on the development and structure of coronal mass ejections as they propagate from the solar corona into the interplanetary medium. In this paper we review the measurements of energetic particles in interplanetary space and discuss their implication for our understanding of the sources, and of acceleration and propagation processes.