Early Data from Aura and Continuity from Uars and Toms

Aura, the last of the large EOS observatories, was launched on July~15, 2004. Aura is designed to make comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric composition measurements from its four instruments, HIRDLS, MLS, OMI and TES. These four instruments work in synergy to provide data on ozone trends, air quality and climate change. The instruments observe in the nadir and limb and provide the best horizontal and vertical resolution ever achieved from space. After over one year in orbit the instruments are nearly operational and providing data to the scientific community. We summarize the mission, instruments, and initial results and give examples of how Aura will provide continuity to earlier chemistry missions.     

Neutron Monitor Records in Broader Historical Context

Man-made neutron monitors have provided a continuous detailed record of the cosmic-ray flux over only about the last 5 decades. Fortunately, nature operates its own detectors and offers the opportunity to extend the cosmic-ray records over much longer time scales. Two different types of `natural detectors' can be distinguished. The first is based on long lived radionuclides that are produced by cosmic-ray interactions in the atmosphere and subsequently become stored in archives such as ice sheets or tree rings. The second type are rocks that are exposed to cosmic-rays at a certain time and from then on integrate the production of cosmogenic nuclides over the whole exposure time. The analysis of ¹⁰Be in polar ice cores and ¹⁴C in tree rings clearly reveals solar and geomagnetic modulation of the cosmic-ray flux on different time scales ranging from decades (11-year Schwabe cycle) to millennia. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity over the Past 106–109 Years as Recorded by Cosmogenic Nuclides in Meteorites and Terrestrial Samples

Concentrations of stable and radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray particles in meteorites allow us to track the long term average of the primary flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). During the past ～10 Ma, the average GCR flux remained constant over timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years, and, if corrected for known variations in solar modulation, also during the past several years to hundreds of years. Because the cosmic ray concentrations in meteorites represent integral signals, it is difficult to assess the limits of uncertainty of this statement, but they are larger than the often quoted analytical and model uncertainties of some 30%. Time series of concentrations of the radionuclide ¹⁰Be in terrestrial samples strengthen the conclusions drawn from meteorite studies, indicating that the GCR intensity on a ～0.5 million year scale has remained constant within some ±10% during the past ～10 million years. The very long-lived radioactive nuclide ⁴⁰K allows to assess the GCR flux over about the past one billion years. The flux over the past few million years has been the same as the longer-term average in the past 0.5–1 billion years within a factor of ～1.5. However, newer data do not confirm a long-held belief that the flux in the past few million years has been higher by some 30–50% than the very long term average. Neither does our analysis confirm a hypothesis that the iron meteorite data indicate a ～150 million year periodicity in the cosmic ray flux, possibly related to variations in the long-term terrestrial climate.     

Long-term indirect indices of solar variability

Continuous direct records of solar variability are limited to the telescopic era covering approximately the past four centuries. For longer records one has to rely on indirect indices such as cosmogenic radionuclides. Their production rate is modulated by magnetic properties of the solar wind. Using a parameterisation of the solar activity and a Monte Carlo simulation model describing the interaction of the cosmic rays with the atmosphere, the production rate for each cosmogenic nuclide of interest can be calculated as a function of solar activity. Analysis of appropriate well-dated natural archives such as ice cores or tree rings offers the possibility to reconstruct the solar activity over many millennia. However, the interpretation of the cosmogenic nuclide records from these archives is difficult. The measured concentrations contain not only information on solar activity but also on changes in the geomagnetic field intensity and the transport from the atmosphere into the archive where, under ideal conditions, no further processes take place. Comparison of different nuclides (e.g. ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C) that are produced in a very similar way but exhibit a completely different geochemical behaviour, allows us to separate production effects from system effects.The presently available data show cyclic variability ranging from 11-year to millennial time scale periodicities with changing amplitudes, as well as irregularly distributed intervals of very low solar activity (so called minima, e.g. Maunder minimum) lasting typically 100 years.     

Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate

In recent years the variability of the cosmic ray flux has become one of the main issues interpreting cosmogenic elements and especially their connection with climate. In this review, an interdisciplinary team of scientists brings together our knowledge of the evolution and modulation of the cosmic ray flux from its origin in the Milky Way, during its propagation through the heliosphere, up to its interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere, resulting, finally, in the production of cosmogenic isotopes in the Earth’ atmosphere. The interpretation of the cosmogenic isotopes and the cosmic ray – cloud connection are also intensively discussed. Finally, we discuss some open questions.     

10Be in Ice Cores and 14C in Tree Rings: Separation of Production and Climate Effects

Cosmogenic radionuclides are more and more used in solar activity reconstructions. However, the cosmogenic radionuclide signal also contains a climate component. It is therefore crucial to eliminate the climate information to allow a better interpretation of the reconstructed solar activity indices. In this paper the method of principal components is applied to ¹⁰Be data from two ice cores from opposite hemispheres as well as to ¹⁴C data from tree rings. The analysis shows that these records are dominated by a common signal which explains about 80% of the variance on multi decadal to multi millennial time scales, reflecting their common production rate. The second and third components are significantly different for ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be. They are interpreted as system effects introduced by the transport of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C from the atmosphere where they are produced to the respective natural archives where they are stored. Principal component analysis improves significantly extraction of the production signal from the cosmogenic isotope data series, which is more appropriate for astrophysical and terrestrial studies.     

Cosmogenic Radionuclides as an Extension of the Neutron Monitor Era into the Past: Potential and Limitations

The cosmogenic radionuclides, ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C and others, provide a record of the paleo-cosmic radiation that extends >10,000 years into the past. They are the only quantitative means at our disposal to study the heliosphere prior to the commencement of routine sunspot observations in the 17th century. The cosmogenic radionuclides are primarily produced by secondary neutrons generated by the galactic cosmic radiation, and can be regarded, in a sense, as providing an extrapolation of the neutron monitor era into the past. However, their characteristics are quite different from the man-made neutron monitor in several important respects: (1) they are sensitive to somewhat lower cosmic ray energies; (2) their temporal resolution is ～1 to 2 years, being determined by the rapidity with which they are sequestered in ice, biological, or other archives; (3) the statistical precision for annual data is very poor (～19%); however it is quite adequate (～5% for 22-year averages) to study the large variations (±40%) that have occurred in the paleo-cosmic ray record in the past between grand solar minima and maxima. The data contains “noise” caused by local meteorological effects, and longer-term climate effects, and the use of principal component analysis to separate these “system” effects from production effects is outlined. The concentrations of ¹⁰Be decreased by a factor of two at the commencement of Holocene, the present-day “interglacial”, due to a 100% increase in the ice accumulation rates in polar regions. The use of the ¹⁰Be flux to study heliospheric properties during the last glacial is discussed briefly.     

The Heliosphere in Time

The paleo-cosmic ray records are used to study the properties of the heliosphere and solar processes over the past 9300 years. They show that both varied greatly over that time, ranging from ～26 “Grand Minima” of duration 50–100 yr when the Sun was inactive, to periods similar to the past 50 years of strong solar activity. This shows that the detailed information regarding the heliosphere gained during the “space era” represents an extreme case, and is not representative of the majority of the past 9300 yr. The data confirm that the 11 and 22-year cycles of solar activity continued through the Spoerer and Maunder Grand Minima. Throughout the 9300 yr interval, “Grand Minima” usually occurred in groups of 2 to 4, similar to the group of four that occurred in the interval 1000–1800 AD. The groups are separated by ～1000 yr intervals without Grand Minima. Frequency spectra of the full 9300 yr record show that the heliospheric and solar phenomena exhibit >10 well-defined and persistent periodicities. We speculate that the solar dynamo exhibits a 2300 yr periodicity, wherein it alternates between two different states of activity. In the first (～800 yr duration) solar activity weakens greatly every 100–200 yr resulting in a sequence of Grand Minima, while in the other, the solar dynamo suffers smaller changes; the centenary scale solar and heliospheric changes are smaller, being similar to those that occurred in the interval 1890–1910. The paleo-cosmic ray evidence suggests that the Sun has now entered this more uniform period of activity, following the sequence of Grand Minima (Wolf, Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton) that occurred between 1000 and 1800 AD.     

The radiation situation in space and its modification by geomagnetic field and shielding.

The fluxes of the nuclear component of the galactic cosmic radiation are discussed in terms of energy spectra for the different elements. Influences of shielding by the earth's magnetic field on these spectra are described. Then energy spectra behind absorbing matter are calculated considering energy loss and fragmentation. Based on these energy spectra LET-spectra are calculated. The form of the LET-spectra and their dependence on the composition of the shielding material are discussed. For LET-spectra measured by different detectors the restricted energy losses are converted to LETinfinity. in water. After this it is possible to compare the results of different experiments with each other and with calculated LET-spectra.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.