An Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System for the detection of thermal and TEC anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan,Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake of 11 August 2012

Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (M_w = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.     

Longitudinal behaviors of the IRI-B parameters of the equatorial electron density profiles retrieved from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultation measurements

The electron density profiles in the bottomside F₂-layer ionosphere are described by the thickness parameter B0 and the shape parameter B1 in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. We collected the ionospheric electron density (N_e) profiles from the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) radio occultation measurements from DoY (day number of year) 194, 2006 to DoY 293, 2008 to investigate the daytime behaviors of IRI-B parameters (B0 and B1) in the equatorial regions. Our fittings confirm that the IRI bottomside profile function can well describe the averaged profiles in the bottomside ionosphere. Analysis of the equatorial electron density profile datasets provides unprecedented detail of the behaviors of B0 and B1 parameters in equatorial regions at low solar activity. The longitudinal averaged B1 has values comparable with IRI-2007 while it shows little seasonal variation. In contrast, the observed B0 presents semiannual variation with maxima in solstice months and minima in equinox months, which is not reproduced by IRI-2007. Moreover, there are complicated longitudinal variations of B0 with patterns varying with seasons. Peaks are distinct in the wave-like longitudinal structure of B0 in equinox months. An outstanding feature is that a stable peak appears around 100°E in four seasons. The significant longitudinal variation of B0 provides challenges for further improving the presentations of the bottomside ionosphere in IRI.     

Feasibility of developing an ionospheric E-region electron density storm model using TIMED/SABER measurements

We present a new technique for improving ionospheric models of nighttime E-region electron densities under geomagnetic storm conditions using TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 μm limb radiance. The response of E-region electron densities to geomagnetic activity is characterized by SABER-derived NO⁺(v) 4.3 μm Volume Emission Rates (VER). A storm-time E-region electron density correction factor is defined as the ratio of storm-enhanced NO⁺(v) VER to a quiet-time climatological average NO⁺(v) VER, which will be fit to a geomagnetic activity index in a future work. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of our technique in two ways. One, we compare storm-to-quiet ratios of SABER-derived NO⁺(v) VER with storm-to-quiet ratios of electron densities measured by Incoherent Scatter Radar. Two, we demonstrate that NO⁺(v) VER can be parameterized by widely available geomagnetic activity indices. The storm-time correction derived from NO⁺(v) VER is applicable at high-latitudes.     

Near real-time assimilation in IRI of auroral peak E-region density and equatorward boundary

The paper describes the method and initial results of assimilating the auroral peak E-region density (NmE) and the auroral equatorward boundary (EB) into the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The NmE and EB are obtained using a FUV based auroral model or FUV measurements in near real-time. Initial results show that the auroral NmE is often significantly larger than the NmE due to the solar EUV. This indicates the importance of including the contribution of precipitating electrons in IRI. The global equatorial boundary helps to improve the specification of the sub-auroral ionosphere trough in IRI. An IDL software package has been developed to interactively display the IRI parameters with assimilated NmE and EB. It can serve as an operational tool for space weather monitoring.     

Rare observation of daytime whistlers at very low latitude (L = 1.08)

The source region and propagation mechanism of low latitude whistlers (Geomag. lat. <30°) have puzzled scientific community for last many decades. In view of recent reports, there is consensus on the source region of low latitude whistlers in the vicinity of the conjugate point. But the plausible conditions of ionospheric medium through which they travel are still uncertain. In addition to that, the whistlers in daytime are never observed at geomagnetic latitudes less than 20°. Here, for the first time, we present a rare observations of whistlers during sunlit hours from a very low-latitude station Allahabad (Geomag. Lat: 16.79°N, L = 1.08) in India on 04 February 2011. More than 90 whistlers are recorded during 1200–1300 UT during which the whole propagation path from lightning source region to whistler observation site is under sunlit. The favorable factors that facilitated the whistlers prior to the sunset are investigated in terms of source lightning characteristics, geomagnetic and background ionospheric medium conditions. The whistler activity period was found to be geomagnetically quiet. However, a significant suppression in ionospheric total electron content (TEC) compared to its quiet day average is found. This shows that background ionospheric conditions may play a key role in low latitude whistler propagation. This study reveals that whistlers can occur under sunlit hours at latitudes as low as L = 1.08 when the source lightning and ionospheric medium characteristics are optimally favorable.     

Effects of space weather on the ionosphere and LEO satellites’ orbital trajectory in equatorial,low and middle latitude

We study the effects of space weather on the ionosphere and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites’ orbital trajectory in equatorial, low- and mid-latitude (EQL, LLT and MLT) regions during (and around) the notable storms of October/November, 2003. We briefly review space weather effects on the thermosphere and ionosphere to demonstrate that such effects are also latitude-dependent and well established. Following the review we simulate the trend in variation of satellite’s orbital radius (r), mean height (h) and orbit decay rate (ODR) during 15 October–14 November 2003 in EQL, LLT and MLT. Nominal atmospheric drag on LEO satellite is usually enhanced by space weather or solar-induced variations in thermospheric temperature and density profile. To separate nominal orbit decay from solar-induced accelerated orbit decay, we compute $r\text{,}h$ and ODR in three regimes viz. (i) excluding solar indices (or effect), where $r=r_0\text{,}h=h_0$ and $\mathit{ODR}={\mathit{ODR}}_0$ (ii) with mean value of solar indices for the interval, where $r=r_m\text{,}h=h_m$ and $\mathit{ODR}={\mathit{ODR}}_m$ and (iii) with actual daily values of solar indices for the interval ($r\text{,}h$ and ODR). For a typical LEO satellite at h?=?450?km, we show that the total decay in r during the period is about 4.20?km, 3.90?km and 3.20?km in EQL, LLT and MLT respectively; the respective nominal decay ($r_0$) is 0.40?km, 0.34?km and 0.22?km, while solar-induced orbital decay ($r_m$) is about 3.80?km, 3.55?km and 2.95?km. h also varied in like manner. The respective nominal ${\mathit{ODR}}_0$ is about 13.5?m/day, 11.2?m/day and 7.2?m/day, while solar-induced ${\mathit{ODR}}_m$ is about 124.3?m/day, 116.9?m/day and 97.3?m/day. We also show that severe geomagnetic storms can increase ODR by up to 117% (from daily mean value). However, the extent of space weather effects on LEO Satellite’s trajectory significantly depends on the ballistic co-efficient and orbit of the satellite, and phase of solar cycles, intensity and duration of driving (or influencing) solar event.     

Variation of hmF2 and NmF2 deduced from DPS-4 over Multan (Pakistan) and their comparisons with IRI-2012 & IRI-2016 during the deep solar minimum between cycles 23 & 24

We report the results of ionospheric measurements from DPS-4 installed at Multan (Geog coord. 30.18°N, 71.48°E, dip 47.4°). The variations in F2-layer maximum electron density NmF2 and its peak height hmF2 are studied during the deep solar minimum between cycles 23 & 24 i.e 2008–2009 with comparisons conducted with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) versions 2012 & 2016. We find that the hmF2 observations peak around the pre-sunrise and sunrise hours depending on the month. Seasonally, the daytime variation of NmF2 is higher in the Equinox and Summer, while daytime hmF2 are slightly higher in the Equinox and Winter. High values of hmF2 around midnight are caused by an increase of upward drifts produced by meridional winds. The ionosphere over Multan, which lies at the verge of low and mid latitude, is affected by both $E\times B$ drifts and thermospheric winds as evident from mid-night peaks and near-sunrise dips in hmF2. The results of the comparison of the observed NmF2 and hmF2 for the year 2008–2009 with the IRI-2012 (both NmF2 and hmF2) and IRI-2016 (only hmF2) estimates indicate that for NmF2, IRI-2012 with Consultative Committee International Radio (CCIR) option produces values in better agreement with observed data. Whereas, for hmF2, IRI-2016 with both International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and CCIR SHU-2015 options, predicts well for nighttime hours throughout the year. However, the IRI-2012 with CCIR option produces better agreement with data during daytime hours. Furthermore, IRI-2012 with CCIR option gives better results during Equinox months, whereas, IRI-2016 with both URSI and CCIR SHU-2015 options predict well for Winter and Summer.     

Using GPS-TEC data to calibrate VTEC computed with the IRI model over Nigeria

This paper presents the development of a Total Electron Content (TEC) map for the Nigerian ionosphere. In this work, TEC measurements obtained from the AFRL-SCINDA GPS (Air Force Research Laboratory-Scintillation Network Decision Aid, Global Positioning System) equipment installed at Nsukka (6.87°N, 7.38°E) are used to adapt the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model for the Nigerian Ionosphere. The map is being developed as a computer program (implemented in the MATLAB programming language) that shows spatial and temporal representations of TEC for the Nigerian ionosphere. The method is aimed at showing how the IRI model can be used to estimate VTEC over wide areas by incorporating GPS measurements. This method is validated by using GPS VTEC data collected from a station in Ilorin (8.50°N, 4.55°E).     

Ionospheric F-region response to geomagnetic disturbances

The F2-region reaction to geomagnetic storms usually called as an ionospheric storm is a rather complicated event. It consists of so called positive and negative phases, which have very complicated spatial and temporal behavior. The main morphological features of ionospheric storms and the main processes governing their behavior were understood at the end of the 1900s and described in a series of review papers. During the recent decade there were many publications dedicated to the problem of ionospheric storms. In this paper a concept of ionospheric storm morphology and physics formulated at the end of the 1990s is briefly summarized and the most interesting results obtained in the 2000s are described. It is shown that the main features of the studies of the previous decade were: the use of GPS TEC data for analyzing the ionospheric storm morphology, attraction of sophisticated theoretical models for studying the processes governing ionospheric behavior in disturbed conditions, and accent to analysis of ionospheric behavior during prominent events (very strong and great geomagnetic storms). Also a special attention was paid to the pre-storm enhancements in foF2 and TEC.     

Variations in the ionospheric scale height parameter at the F2 peak over Grahamstown,South Africa

The Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E) ionospheric field station operates a Lowell digital pulse ionospheric sounder (Digisonde) whose output includes scaled parameters derived from the measured ionogram. One of these output parameters is the ionospheric scale height parameter (H), and this paper presents an analysis of the seasonal, diurnal, and solar activity variations of this parameter over the Grahamstown station. Ionosonde data from three years 2002, 2003, and 2004 were used in this study. The data was subjected to a general trend analysis to remove any outliers and then the monthly median data were used to explore the different variations. The results of this analysis were found to be similar to what has already been presented in the literature for low latitude stations, and are presented as well as the correlation at this mid-latitude station between the H parameter, the IRI shape parameter (B0), and the peak electron density (NmF2).