GRACE products and land surface models for estimating the changes in key water storage components in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River Basin (NRB) is facing extreme demand for its water resources due to an alarming increase in population and the changing climate. The NRB is not compatible with ground-based in-situ observations owing to its large basin area size and limited hydrological data access from basin countries. Thus, it lends itself to remotely sensed approaches with high spatial resolution and extended temporal coverage. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) avails a unique opportunity to investigate the changes in key components of terrestrial water storage (TWS). GRACE TWS solutions have specific tuning parameters and processing strategies that result in regionally specific variations and error patterns. We explored the TWS time series spatiotemporal changes, trends, uncertainties, and signal-to-noise ratio among different GRACE TWS data. We had also investigated the key terrestrial water storage components such as surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater storage changes. The results show that GRACE spherical harmonic solutions' uncertainty is higher than the mass concentration (mascon) over the NRB, and the Center for Space Research-mascons had the best performance. The evapotranspiration correlation (R² = 0.85) has the highest correlation with GRACE’s TWS, whereas the normalized difference vegetation index (R² = 0.82) has the second highest correlation. Notably, significant long-term (2003–2017) negative groundwater and soil moisture trends demonstrate a potential depletion of the NRB. Despite an increase in precipitation and the TWS time series, the rate of decline increased rapidly after 2008, thereby indicating the possibility of human-induced change (e.g. for irrigation purposes). Therefore, the results of this study provide a guide for future studies related to hydro-climatic change over the NRB and similar basins.     

Remarks on “A new non-specificity measure in evidence theory based on belief intervals”

Two types of uncertainty co-exist in the theory of evidence: discord and non-specificity. From 90s, many mathematical expressions have arisen to quantify these two parts in an evidence. An important aspect of each measure presented is the verification of a coherent set of properties. About non-specificity, so far only one measure verifies an important set of those properties. Very recently, a new measure of non-specificity based on belief intervals has been presented as an alternative measure that quantifies a similar set of properties (Yang et al., 2016). It is shown that the new measure really does not verify two of those important properties. Some errors have been found in their corresponding proofs in the original publication.     

Sensor calibration impacts on dust detection based on MODIS and VIIRS thermal emissive bands

Dust detection using remotely sensed measurements has been one of the challenging problems encountered by atmospheric scientists. MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra (T) and Aqua (A) platforms have been a versatile sensor for well over 21 and 18 years respectively, and have been extremely useful in the retrieval of aerosol information over the entire globe. The MODIS radiances from the Level 1B in general are expected to be within 5% accuracy in the reflective wavelengths and within 1% in the thermal emissive wavelengths. In this paper, we evaluate the sensitivity of previously developed dust detection technique based on thermal emissive wavelengths, which correspond to MODIS bands 20, 29, 31, and 32 respectively. The Thermal Emissive Dust Index (TEDI) performed very comparably to the traditional Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) retrievals by MODIS reflective channels. Since the MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands (TEB) are well calibrated on-orbit using a BlackBody (BB) source, the calibration of these long wave infrared bands is quite robust. As A-MODIS continues to perform well beyond its designed lifetime of 6 years, the instrument has undergone various levels of degradation during its mission time. As a consequence, it is imperative to check the impacts of calibration on the higher-level retrievals. In this paper, we rigorously analyze the sensitivity of TEDI due to the impact of calibration by the afore-mentioned TEB. The perturbation of the dominant (linear) calibration term demonstrated the following: first, there was a correlation in the sensitivity of the TEDI due to the uncertainty in the linear calibration term. Based on a perturbation in the linear calibration term for all aforementioned bands over a range of ±5% yielded the TEDI sensitivity to vary from approximately ?3.2% to about ?3.6%. When considering the uncertainty in each individual band significant changes were observed. The least change was observed for the perturbation in the calibration of band 20 with the TEDI sensitivity and the largest sensitivity in TEDI was observed in the perturbation of band 31 calibration. Thus, in the case of TEDI, noticeable sensitivity due to calibration uncertainty was observed in bands 29, 31, and 32, reiterating the importance of the TEB calibration in these bands. Also, the dust detection scheme based on A-MODIS was successfully transferred to the follow-on sensors such as Suomi (SNPP) and NOAA 20 (N20) VIIRS. The results presented in this paper would be extremely helpful in understanding impacts of calibration on the higher-level products for both current and future missions based on the MODIS heritage. Finally, the work also identifies the importance of radiometric fidelity in maintaining the accuracy of the dust detection. Results presented will show drastic improvement of the Saharan dust detection after the reduction of the electronic crosstalk in the 8.5 µm channel of T-MODIS.     

基于二阶鲁棒滑模观测器的民用涡扇发动机气路故障诊断

针对状态估计器在航空发动机气路参数估计中响应迟缓、鲁棒性不强等问题,以未知输入重构的思路,提出了一种基于Super-twisting滑模观测器的航空发动机气路故障诊断方法。通过将健康参数考虑为未知输入,设计滑模切换项重构健康参数的变化量,由于避免了状态估计器设计中健康参数导数为零的假设,本文的方法在处理突变故障时拥有更快的响应速度。针对鲁棒性问题,提出了一种新的故障向量增广形式,通过将扰动项增广至健康参数向量中,观测器的重构信号能够同时估计出健康参数变化量以及扰动项的大小,实现扰动与部件故障的解耦,从而避免了不确定项对健康参数估计结果的影响。本文建立了民用涡扇发动机包线范围内的线性变参数模型,通过不同故障模式下的数值仿真,并与状态估计器比较,验证了方法的有效性。结果表明,设计的滑模观测器具有小于0.5%的估计误差,有效地提高了气路健康参数的估计速度,增强了对不确定性的鲁棒性。     

真实运行状态下叶顶间隙尺寸波动对跨声速转子气动性能的影响研究（两机专刊）

为分析跨声速转子实时波动的叶顶间隙尺寸对气动性能的影响,本文对某跨声速压气机转子真实运行状态下一个稳定工况实时波动的叶顶间隙数据进行统计分析,获得了叶顶间隙尺寸的总体水平、波动幅值和概率分布形式。以跨声速压气机转子NASA Rotor 37为研究对象,采用非嵌入式混沌多项式不确定性量化方法,对100%转速下近失速和峰值效率两个工况的施加相同叶顶间隙波动对跨声速转子气动性能的影响进行了不确定性量化分析。结果表明,真实运行状态下叶顶间隙波动对气动性能的总体水平无影响,但会缩小喘振裕度3.75%;近失速工况对叶顶间隙波动更为敏感,各参数的相对波动幅值均较峰值效率工况有所增大,等熵效率受叶顶间隙波动的影响比质量流量和总压比大;近失速工况下叶顶间隙波动在叶高方向上的影响范围和强度均大于峰值效率工况,98%叶高位置处静压系数和总压损失系数最大相对波动幅值分别可达14.84%和5%。峰值效率工况下流场中的不确定性主要由叶顶泄漏流及其与激波相互作用引起;而近失速工况下流场当中的不确定性则是由激波和吸力面分离流动起主要作用。     

真实运行状态下叶顶间隙尺寸波动对跨声速转子气动性能的影响研究

为分析跨声速转子实时波动的叶顶间隙尺寸对气动性能的影响,对跨声速压气机转子真实运行状态下一个稳定工况实时波动的叶顶间隙数据进行统计分析,获得了叶顶间隙尺寸的总体水平、波动幅值和概率分布形式。以跨声速压气机转子NASA Rotor 37为研究对象,采用非嵌入式混沌多项式不确定性量化方法,对100%转速下近失速和峰值效率两个工况施加相同叶顶间隙波动对跨声速转子气动性能的影响进行了不确定性量化分析。结果表明,真实运行状态下叶顶间隙波动对气动性能的总体水平无影响,但会缩小喘振裕度3.75%;近失速工况对叶顶间隙波动更为敏感,各参数的相对波动幅值均较峰值效率工况有所增大,等熵效率受叶顶间隙波动的影响比质量流量和总压比大;近失速工况下叶顶间隙波动在叶高方向上的影响范围和强度均大于峰值效率工况,98%叶高位置处静压系数和总压损失系数最大相对波动幅值分别可达14.84%和5%。峰值效率工况下流场中的不确定性主要由叶顶泄漏流及其与激波相互作用引起;而近失速工况下流场当中的不确定性则是由激波和吸力面分离流动起主要作用。     

测量不确定度应用分析

对测量不确定度应用问题进行了分析,并提出了一些初步的结论。     

直流电阻仪数字化检定装置

主要叙述了直流电阻仪数字化检定装置的组成、工作原理及线路分析,介绍了检定装置的技术指标、操作过程及主要特点。详细分析了检定装置的误差来源及对不确定度的评估和验证。     

Hybrid uncertainty-based design optimization and its application to hybrid rocket motors for manned lunar landing

Design reliability and robustness are getting increasingly important for the general design of aerospace systems with many inherently uncertain design parameters. This paper presents a hybrid uncertainty-based design optimization (UDO) method developed from probability theory and interval theory. Most of the uncertain design parameters which have sufficient information or experimental data are classified as random variables using probability theory, while the others are defined as interval variables with interval theory. Then a hybrid uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation and Taylor series interval analysis is developed to obtain the uncer-tainty propagation from the design parameters to system responses. Three design optimization strategies, including deterministic design optimization (DDO), probabilistic UDO and hybrid UDO, are applied to the conceptual design of a hybrid rocket motor (HRM) used as the ascent propulsion system in Apollo lunar module. By comparison, the hybrid UDO is a feasible method and can be effectively applied to the general design of aerospace systems.     

航行体垂直发射过程不确定性量化方法的探讨

在发射平台运动、海浪及海流、气水介质突变、空泡溃灭等的影响下,航行体水下垂直发射呈现出干扰因素随机性强、干扰量大、弹道参数变化剧烈等特点。在分析、辨识各种干扰因素的形成机制及组成结构的基础上,建立了描述航行体水下发射过程不确定度的数学模型;介绍了近年来国际上较为热门的不确定性量化研究中的数值方法和进展,主要讨论了基于多项式混沌理论的不确定度量化方法;最后,探讨了未来航行体水下发射过程不确定性量化研究所面临的一些挑战和亟待解决的问题。