Bayesian uncertainty analysis of SA turbulence model for supersonic jet interaction simulations

The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) models are still the workhorse in current engineering applications due to its high efficiency and robustness. However, the closure coefficients of RANS turbulence models are determined by model builders according to some simple fundamental flows, and the suggested values may not be applicable to complex flows, especially supersonic jet interaction flow. In this work, the Bayesian method is employed to recalibrate the closure coefficients of Spalart-Allma...     

顶杆法膨胀仪的研制及不确定度分析

研制了一套顶杆法膨胀仪,用于测试室温~500℃固体材料的平均线胀系数。利用该套膨胀仪对

SRM732 进行测试,并与美国国家标准与技术研究院提供的标准数据比较,相对误差小于2%。以SRM732 测

试结果为基础,进行不确定度分析,该套膨胀仪的测试不确定度小于3. 2%。

     

叶顶间隙偏差对叶片气动性能影响的不确定性研究

在压气机叶片加工过程中，实际加工得到的叶片外形与设计叶型不可避免会存在一些偏差。为研究叶片叶顶间隙尺寸波动对性能的影响，以Rotor37为研究对象，采用三维定常数值模拟方法，基于非嵌入式混沌多项式中二维正态分布变量产生方法，分别对叶片前缘叶顶间隙和尾缘叶顶间隙进行尺寸波动干扰，研究了叶顶间隙不确定性对气动性能和流场的不确定性影响，评估了公差带内叶顶间隙偏差与气动性能变化的相关性，并探究了叶顶间隙变化对叶片稳定裕度的影响机理。研究发现，叶顶间隙偏差对等背压条件下叶片质量流量、等熵效率和总压比的平均水平几乎不会造成影响；叶顶间隙偏差所造成的气动性能分布标准差随工况点向不稳定边界的逼近而逐渐增大。同时，叶顶间隙不确定性会导致样本稳定裕度均值有所降低，不确定性分析中稳定裕度均值相对原型叶片下降了2.42%。流场结构方面，叶顶间隙偏差主要影响80%叶高以上部分流场；叶顶间隙偏差对叶顶区域泄漏流产生的影响，导致了叶片稳定裕度的变化。     

大气层内固体火箭多约束鲁棒三维能量管理制导

针对固体运载火箭大范围精确调节终端约束的要求，提出一种新型的大气层内鲁棒三维能量管理制导方法，通过在线规划侧向速度能力曲线消耗剩余发动机能量。将终端约束表示为关于攻角和速度能力曲线参数的方程组，将闭环制导问题转化为方程组的求解。针对飞行过程中的动压、过载，以及控制变化率等过程约束，构造了攻角和速度能力曲线的可行边界。针对气动系数和发动机参数的不确定性，采用容积卡尔曼滤波器对不确定性进行辨识。仿真结果表明，与模型预测静态规划算法和改进粒子群算法相比，本算法的终端速度调节范围、鲁棒性以及计算效率大幅度提高。     

安监系统压力参数现场校准测量结果不确定度评定探讨

基于压力变送器现场压力测量、信号转换传输和压力终端显示,建立了安全监控系统(简称“安监系统”)压力参数现场测量系统。介绍了安监系统压力参数在线校准方法,建立了测量误差数学模型,分析了显示终端压力参数测量结果的不确定度来源,并进行测量结果不确定度的评定,经试验验证分析,给出了现场系统校准测量结果不确定度的主要贡献分量。     

Uncertainty analysis of measured geometric variations in turbine blades and impact on aerodynamic performance

Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines; thus, it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on performance. In this study, based on 1781 measured profiles of a typical turbine blade, the statistical characteristics of the geometric variations and the uncertainty impact are analyzed, and some commonly used uncertainty modelling methods based on PrincipalComponent Analysis(PCA)...     

Adjoint-based robust optimization design of laminar flow wing under flight condition uncertainties

It is an inherent uncertainty problem that the application of laminar flow technology to the wing of large passenger aircraft is affected by flight conditions. In order to seek a more robust natural laminar flow control effect, it is necessary to develop an effective optimization design method. Meanwhile, attention must be given to the impact of crossflow(CF) instability brought on by the sweep angle. This paper constructs a robust optimization design framework based on discrete adjoint methods ...     

Orbital error propagation considering atmospheric density uncertainty

Due to the influence of various errors, the orbital uncertainty propagation of artificial celestial objects while orbit prediction is required, especially in some applications such as conjunction analysis. In the orbital error propagation of artificial celestial objects in low Earth orbits (LEOs), atmospheric density uncertainty is one of the important factors that require special attention. In this paper, on the basis of considering the uncertainties of position and velocity, the atmospheric density uncertainty is also taken into account to further investigate the orbital error propagation of artificial celestial objects in LEOs. Artificial intelligence algorithms are introduced, the MC Dropout neural network and the heteroscedastic loss function are used to realize the correction of the empirical atmospheric density model, as well as to provide the quantification of model uncertainty and input uncertainty for the corrected atmospheric densities. It is shown that the neural network we built achieves good results in atmospheric density correction, and the uncertainty quantization obtained from the neural network is also reasonable. Moreover, using the Gaussian mixture model - unscented transform (GMM-UT) method, the atmospheric density uncertainty is taken into account in the orbital uncertainty propagation, by adding a sampled random term to the corrected atmospheric density when calculating atmospheric density. The feasibility of the GMM-UT method considering atmospheric density uncertainty is proved by the further comparison of abundant sampling points and GMM-UT results (with and without considering atmospheric density uncertainty).     

A novel robust aerodynamic optimization technique coupled with adjoint solvers and polynomial chaos expansion

Uncertainty is common in the life cycle of an aircraft, and Robust Aerodynamic Optimization (RAO) that considers uncertainty is important in aircraft design. To avoid the curse of dimensionality in surrogate-based optimization, this study proposes an adjoint RAO technique called “R-Opt”. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is coupled with the R-Opt technique to quantify uncertainty in the responses of the target (including its mean and standard deviation). Only one process of PCE model construction is required in each iteration, and the gradients of uncertainty can be inferred via chain rules. The proposed method is more efficient than prevalent methods, and avoids the problem of a disagreement over the best PCE basis from among a number of PCE models (especially in case of sparse PCE). It also supports the application of sparse PCE. Two benchmark tests and two airfoil cases were used to verify R-Opt, and the optimal solutions were deemed to be robust. It improved the mean aerodynamic performance and reduced the standard deviation of the target.