航天可靠性工程技术体系及关键技术研究

航天装备具有高性能、高价值、小批量、组成复杂、高速飞行、环境严酷、多次分离等显著特点,要实现高可靠具有很大难度。总结了航天可靠性工程的3个基本问题,在此基础上研究提出了中国航天可靠性工程技术体系框架,并对体系框架中的各种可靠性工程技术及其在航天工程实践中的最早应用情况进行了简介。最后,面向未来一段时期航天装备体系建设的需求,初步提出了航天可靠性工程关键技术,供后续研究工作参考。     

长征运载火箭飞行控制技术的发展

介绍了新一代长征运载火箭(LMLVs)的型谱,并从四个方面对运载火箭控制系统的发展进行了综述。制导技术从开环制导发展到迭代制导,并针对大推力直接入轨和终端姿态约束要求,进一步发展了迭代制导算法,入轨精度大幅提升;姿态控制仍以PID技术为基础,采用空间模态和等效摆角的建模方法解决助推飞行段多个舱段发动机联合摇摆问题,结合自抗扰技术(ARDC)进行主动减载控制;自载人航天工程起开展系统性的可靠性设计研究,逐渐形成了以设备冗余、算法容错和系统在线重构等为特点的技术体系,促进了长征火箭控制系统可靠性的整体提升;电子系统从分立的集中式体系架构,发展为集成化的分布式数字控制系统。针对当前飞行控制技术的研究热点,本文最后总结了长征运载火箭在这方面的最新实践与发展趋势。     

An efficient algorithm for calculating Profust failure probability

For efficiently estimating the Profust failure probability based on probability input variables and fuzzy-state assumption, a General Performance Function(GPF) expression is established under the strict mathematical derivation for the Profust reliability model. By constructing the GPF,the calculation of the Profust failure probability can be transformed into the calculation of the traditional failure probability. Then various existing methods for the traditional failure probability can be used to estimate the Profust failure probability. Due to the high efficiency of the Adaptive Kriging(AK) model and the universality of the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS), AK inserted MCS(abbreviated as AK-MCS) has been proven to be an efficient method for estimating the failure probability. Therefore, the AK-MCS combined with the GPF(abbreviated as AK-MCS + GPF)is proposed for estimating Profust failure probability. The proposed method greatly reduces the computational cost while ensuring the accuracy. Finally, four examples are given to validate the proposed AK-MCS + GPF. The results of the examples show the rationality and the efficiency of the proposed AK-MCS + GPF.     

某型飞机局部机身结构可靠性分析

阐述了利用有限元分析结果进行结构静强度可靠性分析的一种方法。利用工程上较为成熟的一次二阶矩法计算结构单元可靠度,用数值积分法求主要失效模式间的二阶共失效概率,然后采用0Ditlevse的二阶窄边界法计算结构体系的失效概率,最终计算结果与实际相吻合     

小子样下导电滑环磨损失效仿真的可靠性评估研究

针对滑环失效数据较少的特点，构建导电滑环磨损失效模型，结合小子样数据处理法和随机性理论对滑环摩擦副进行可靠性评估研究。首先，考虑滑环摩擦副在热力电多场耦合环境下的特点，应用传热学、赫兹理论、能量守恒定律量化多场耦合对滑环摩擦副的影响，再结合Archard模型理论构建导电滑环摩擦副磨损失效模型。然后，采用小子样数据的虚拟增广法和Boot-strap法对仿真数据进行扩展，根据滑环磨损特征量分布规律分别得到随机失效阈值与固定阈值下的可靠度函数曲线，以某厂制造的导电滑环为例，进行滑环摩擦副可靠性评估，实验结果表明随机失效阈值下的可靠度与实际更接近。研究表明所构建的磨损模型和方法可以有效地对导电滑环进行可靠性评估，避免了传统的必须依赖大量试验数据的方法，解决了缺少滑环试验数据而难以进行可靠性评估的问题，填补了导电滑环可靠性研究的空白。     

潜通路分析在飞行器电气系统设计中的应用

简要介绍了潜通路分析的概念、国内外发展现状，分析了与其他可靠性设计方法的关系，认为潜通路分析是可靠性分析的有效补充。结合具体案例分析潜在路径、潜在时序、潜在标志和潜在指示的问题产生和解决。最后展望了潜通路分析技术在飞行器设计中的应用前景。     

Reliability estimation of mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty

The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems. Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage, and might lead to system failure and other relevant consequences. In this study, the reliability estimation for mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty is proposed. The friction torque and leakage rate are two degradation performance indicators of mechanical seals that can be described by the Wiener process, Gamma process, and inverse Gaussian process. The dependence between the two indicators can be described by different copula functions. Then the model uncertainty is considered in the reliability estimation using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) method, while the unknown parameters in the model are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A numerical simulation study and fatigue crack study are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the BMA method to capture model uncertainty. A degradation test of mechanical seals is conducted to verify the proposed model. The optimal stochastic process models for two performance indicators and copula function are determined based on the degradation data. The results show the necessity of using the BMA method in degradation modeling.     

Large constellations assessment and optimization in LEO space debris environment

Recent plans for large constellations in Low-Earth Orbit have opened the debate on both their vulnerability and their influence on the already hazardous space debris environment. In fact, given that large constellations normally employ satellites of small size, there might be situations in which cm-size debris could have enough energy to cause fragmentation of a significant part of these spacecraft upon impact, while smaller debris could affect the functionalities of critical subsystems, even compromising the success of disposal operations planned at end-of-life. In this context, this paper investigates: (1) collisions with large objects that could initiate the fragmentation of a significant part of the satellite, and (2) impacts with small debris that might perforate the spacecraft hull thus causing relevant performance/functionality degradation. These two points are merged in a simple statistical tool for risk assessment, which analyses the effects of the main parameters of the constellations on its vulnerability (i.e. operational life, number of satellites, spacecraft cross section, satellites reliability). In more details, the tool relates impact probability (for both small and large debris) to the ballistic response of spacecraft structures and protections, defining the critical configurations that might compromise the expected disposal operations. This method requires a limited knowledge of the spacecraft internal layout, as it is based on a statistical analysis of impact damage instead of a complete evaluation of the vulnerability of each subsystem. In parallel, non-debris related failures are also investigated and statistic models of spacecraft reliability characteristic are proposed. Among the results, it is shown that reducing the lifetime of individual satellites in a constellation might improve the success rate of post-mission disposal, thanks to the reduction of the spacecraft exposure to the space environment with the consequential degradation of its performance. On the other hand, reducing the lifetime would seriously affect the debris environment: the increase in traffic in the most crowded altitudes would be not counterbalanced by the higher post mission disposal success rate, causing an overall increase of the total number of uncontrolled resident objects.     

A type of 2D magnetic equivalent circuit framework of permanent magnet for magnetic system in AEMR

Modeling of permanent magnet(PM) is very important in the process of electromagnetic system calculation of aerospace electromagnetic relay(AEMR). In traditional analytical calculation, PM is often equivalent to a lumped parameter model of one magnetic resistance and one magnetic potential, but great error is often caused for the inner differences of PM; based on the conception of flux tube, a type of 2D magnetic equivalent circuit framework of permanent magnet model(2D MECF) is established; the element is defined, the relationship between elements is deduced, and solution procedure as well as verification condition of this model is given; by a case study of the electromagnetic system of a certain type of AEMR, the electromagnetic system calculation model is established based on 2D MECF and the attractive force at different rotation angles is calculated; the proposed method is compared with the traditional lumped parameter model and finite element method(FEM); for some types of electromagnetic systems with symmetrical structure, 2D MECF proves to be of acceptable accuracy and high calculation speed which fit the requirement of robust design for AEMR.     

基于BDD的航天测控系统任务可靠性分析

针对航天测控系统任务可靠性分析问题,提出了基于二值决策图（BDD）的航天测控系统任务可靠性分析模型和算法。将航天测控系统视为一个多阶段任务系统,采用任务剖面描述任务时序逻辑关系。根据各阶段的可靠性逻辑结构建立了单阶段的BDD,依次对各阶段的BDD进行运算得到系统的BDD,据此计算系统的可靠度。最后给出了一个算例,验证了算法的有效性。