永磁同步电机驱动太阳翼扰动力矩建模与仿真

建立太阳翼驱动机构(SADA)永磁同步电机的电磁方程，并利用固定界面模态综合法建立SADA驱动太阳翼耦合系统的振动方程；设计模拟柔性负载，对SADA驱动该柔性负载的扰振力矩进行仿真分析。结果表明，SADA驱动柔性负载运行过程中所产生扰振力矩主要由两个原因引起：1)电流噪声引起的力矩波动；2)控制参数选取不当引起的转角波动。     

Effects on winter circulation of short and long term solar wind changes

Indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation show correlations on the day-to-day timescale with the solar wind speed (SWS). Minima in the indices were found on days of SWS minima during years of high stratospheric aerosol loading. The spatial distribution of surface pressure changes during 1963–2011 with day-to-day changes in SWS shows a pattern resembling the NAO. Such a pattern was noted for year-to-year variations by Boberg and Lundstedt (2002), who compared NAO variations with the geo-effective solar wind electric field (the monthly average SWS multiplied by the average southward component, i.e., negative Bz component, of the interplanetary magnetic field). The spatial distribution of the correlations of geopotential height changes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the SWS; the geo-effective electric field (SWS∗Bz); and the solar 10.7 cm flux suggests that solar wind inputs connected to the troposphere via the global electric circuit, together with solar ultraviolet irradiance acting on the stratosphere, affect regional atmospheric dynamics.     

The geomagnetic solar flare effect identified by SIIG as an indicator of a solar flare observed by GOES satellites

This paper studies the efficiency of geomagnetic solar flare effects (gsfe) in X solar flare detection; so during the period 1999–2007 a comparison between solar flare (sf) observed by satellites of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) programme and gsfe published by the Service International des Indices Geomagnetiques (SIIG) is made.     

Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation

Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation is calculated over multiple solar cycles using our well established two-dimensional time-dependent modulation model. Results are compared to Voyager 1, Ulysses and IMP cosmic ray observations to establish compatibility. A time-dependence in the diffusion and drift coefficients, implicitly contained in recent expressions derived by , ,  and , is incorporated into the cosmic ray modulation model. This results in calculations which are compatible with spacecraft observations on a global scale over consecutive solar cycles. This approach compares well to the successful compound approach of Ferreira and Potgieter (2004). For both these approaches the magnetic field magnitude, variance of the field and current sheet tilt angle values observed at Earth are transported time-dependently into the outer heliosphere. However, when results are compared to observations for extreme solar maximum, the computed step-like modulation is not as pronounced as observed. This indicates that some additional merging of these structures into more pronounced modulation barriers along the way is needed.     

Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.     

DORIS processing at the European Space Operations Centre

This paper gives an overview of the DORIS related activities at the Navigation Support Office of the European Space Operations Centre. The DORIS activities were started in 2002 because of the launch of the Envisat satellite where ESOC is responsible for the validation of the Envisat Precise Orbits and a brief overview of the key Envisat activities at ESOC is given. Typical orbit comparison RMS values between the CNES POE (GDR-C) and the ESOC POD solution is 6.5, 18.8 and 23.1 mm in radial-, along- and cross-track direction. In the framework of the generation of the ITRF2008 ESOC participated in the reprocessing of all three space geodetic techniques; DORIS, SLR, and GPS. Here the main results of our DORIS reprocessing, in the framework of the International DORIS Service (IDS), are given. The WRMS of the weekly ESOC solution (esawd03) for the 2004–2009 period compared to the IDS-1 combined solution is of the order of 12 mm. Based on the long time series of homogeneously processed data a closer look is taken at the estimated solar radiation pressure parameters of the different satellites used in this DORIS analysis. The main aim being the stabilization of the Z-component of the geocentre estimates. We conclude that the ESOC participation to the IDS ITRF2008 contribution has been beneficial for both ESOC and the IDS. ESOC has profited significantly from the very open and direct communications and comparisons that took place within the IDS during the reprocessing campaign.     

The gas pixel detector as a solar X-ray polarimeter and imager

The Sun is the nearest astrophysical source with a very intense emission in the X-ray band. The study of energetic events, such as solar flares, can help us to understand the behaviour of the magnetic field of our star. There are in the literature numerous studies published about polarization predictions, for a wide range of solar flares models involving the emission from thermal and/or non-thermal processes, but observations in the X-ray band have never been exhaustive.The gas pixel detector (GPD) was designed to achieve X-ray polarimetric measurements as well as X-ray images for far astrophysical sources. Here we present the possibility to employ this instrument for the observation of our Sun in the X-ray band.     

Variation in the ionospheric propagating factor M(3000)F2 at Ouagadougou,Burkina Faso

We use hourly monthly median values of propagation factor M(3000)F2 data observed at Ouagadougou Ionospheric Observatory (geographic12.4°N, 1.5°W; 5.9^o dip), Burkina Faso (West Africa) during the years Januar1987–December1988 (average F10.7 < 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of low solar flux conditions) and for January 1989–December1990 (average F10.7 ? 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of high solar epoch) for magnetically quiet conditions to describe local time, seasonal and solar cycle variations of equatorial ionospheric propagation factor M(3000)F2 in the African region. We show that that seasonal trend between solar maximum and solar minimum curves display simple patterns for all seasons and exhibits reasonable disparity with root mean square error (RMSE) of about 0.31, 0.29 and 0.26 for December solstice, June solstice and equinox, respectively. Variability Σ defined by the percentage ratio of the absolute standard deviation to the mean indicates significant dissimilarity for the two solar flux levels. Solar maximum day (10–14 LT) and night (22–02 LT) values show considerable variations than the solar minimum day and night values. We compare our observations with those of the IRI 2007 to validate the prediction capacity of the empirical model. We find that the IRI model tends to underestimate and overestimate the observed values of M(3000)F2, in particular, during June solstice season. There are large discrepancies, mainly during high solar flux equinox and December solstice between dawn and local midnight. On the other hand, IRI provides a slightly better predictions for M(3000)F2 between 0900 and 1500 LT during equinox low and high solar activity and equinox high sunspot number. Our data are of great importance in the area of short-wave telecommunication and ionospheric modeling.     

Geomagnetic activity driven by solar wind turbulence

Within the framework of the solar wind—magnetosphere coupled system, intense perturbations in the solar wind, causing geomagnetic storms and substorms, have been widely studied by means of the so-called coupling parameters. However, remarkable variations in the geomagnetic field occur even in absence of such perturbations. In those conditions, solar wind MHD turbulence might have a role. Recent results have shown that solar wind turbulence can be described not only as a mixture of inward and outward stochastic Alfvénic fluctuations, but includes also advected structures, dominated by an excess of magnetic energy.