Remaining useful life estimation for deteriorating systems with time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones

Dynamic time-varying operational conditions pose great challenge to the estimation of system remaining useful life (RUL) for the deteriorating systems. This paper presents a method based on probabilistic and stochastic approaches to estimate system RUL for periodically moni-tored degradation processes with dynamic time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones. The method assumes that the degradation rate is influenced by specific oper-ational condition and moreover, the transition between different operational conditions plays the most important role in affecting the degradation process. These operational conditions are assumed to evolve as a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). The failure thresholds are also determined by specific operational conditions and described as different failure zones. The 2008 PHM Conference Challenge Data is utilized to illustrate our method, which contains mass sensory signals related to the degradation process of a commercial turbofan engine. The RUL estimation method using the sensor measurements of a single sensor was first developed, and then multiple vital sensors were selected through a particular optimization procedure in order to increase the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are presented in a comparison with exist-ing methods for the same dataset.     

民用航空发动机引气系统部件寿命建模

针对飞机维修工作中发动机引气系统故障率较高问题,以寿命数据分析为基础,运用威布尔分布模型定量评估航空发动机部件可靠性,建立了民用航空发动机引气系统部件可靠性寿命模型。以V2500发动机引气系统为例,收集了该系统的可靠性数据,分析了部件的非计划拆换情况。在数据计算过程中采用3参数威布尔分布模型对引气系统部件的寿命数据进行拟合。假设检验结果表明,在对部件进行寿命可靠性分析时,运用威布尔分布建立的数学模型符合客观规律,且能够取得良好的拟合效果。依据计算出的部件可靠性特征量对部件的可靠性状况进行定量评估,结果表明:在评估复杂机械电子系统的可靠性时,威布尔分布模型具有较大应用价值。     

基于非接触式测量的旋转叶片动应变重构方法

基于叶端定时非接触式测量和振动响应传递比的概念,开展高速旋转叶片动应变重构方法的研究。在频域内推导了叶片任意测点位移与任意测点动应变的传递比,给出了单模态共振下响应传递比关于位移和应变模态振型的解析表达式;建立旋转叶片的三维(3D)有限元模型,开展考虑旋转预应力效应的叶片模态分析,提取位移和应变模态振型,获得任意转速下叶端位移与叶根关键点动应变的传递比。开展高速旋转叶片叶端定时非接触式测量实验,采用周向傅里叶算法对叶端定时信号进行处理,获得叶片在不同转速单模态共振下的叶端位移,结合响应传递比,重构5个旋转叶片的关键点动应变。结果表明:旋转叶片在9000r/min和13000r/min转速下发生1阶共振时,与应变片实测结果相比,叶根处应力最大点、次大点和边缘点3个关键点的动应变平均重构误差均小于15%,验证了旋转叶片动应变重构方法的有效性。     

复合材料胶补飞机损伤金属结构疲劳寿命分析

针对复合材料单面胶接修理飞机损伤金属结构疲劳寿命分析时,多种失效模式耦合作用、残余热应力和附加弯曲力矩以及裂纹非均匀扩展的影响,提出了一种能够综合考虑上述影响因素的复合材料修理损伤金属结构疲劳寿命评估方法。算例分析结果与试验结果吻合,表明本文方法可为复合材料单面胶接修理损伤金属结构疲劳寿命估算提供参考。     

基于对数正态分布的多部位疲劳结构的疲劳寿命预测方法

以实现多部位疲劳结构的寿命预测为目的,基于概率累积损伤法则,推导了基于寿命服从对数正态分布的概率疲劳寿命预测方法。根据损伤临界值与应力水平无关这一前提条件,将损伤临界值由传统确定性的值1转换为随机变量,累积损伤由确定性的中值损伤计算,建立了"中值累积损伤-概率损伤临界值"干涉模型。当对数寿命标准差恒定时,对比了所提出模型和基于Monte Carlo仿真的Miner累积损伤方法的寿命预测结果,验证了模型的准确性以及其方便快捷的优点;当对数寿命标准差变化时,损伤临界值由满足损伤等效的应力基准决定,此时亦可得到高精度的偏于安全的寿命预测结果。     

Fatigue crack propagation of new aluminum lithium alloy bonded with titanium alloy strap

A new type of aluminum lithium alloy (Al-Li alloy) Al-Li-S-4 was investigated by test in this paper. Alloy plate of 400 mm · 140 mm · 6 mm with single edge notch was made into samples bonded with Ti-6Al-4V alloy (Ti alloy) strap by FM 94 film adhesive after the surface was treated. Fatigue crack growth of samples was investigated under cyclic loading with stress ratio (R) of 0.1 and load amplitude constant. The results show that Al-Li alloy plate bonded with Ti alloy strap could retard fatigue crack propagation. Retardation effect is related with width and thickness of strap. Flaws have an observable effect on crack propagation direction.     

基于模型的载人航天器研制方法研究与实践

载人航天器具有系统规模大、技术难度高、单件小批量、无法通过多次飞行持续完善设计、可靠性要求高等特点。当前载人航天器研制中仍存在着参数化和模型化程度不高、基于模型的系统综合仿真验证不足、研制各环节缺乏数字化集成等问题，传统基于文本的系统工程方法已无法满足研制需求，亟需采用基于模型的系统工程方法。本文针对载人航天器的研制现状和应用需求，提出了面向载人航天器全生命周期的模型体系，定义了需求模型、功能模型、产品模型、工程模型、制造模型、实做模型等六类模型，提出了基于模型的研制流程，包含系统设计闭环验证、产品设计闭环验证、实做产品闭环验证3个验证环节，并深入探索了各研制环节中不同模型间的传递与关联关系。以某型号载人航天器为应用基础，系统地验证了提出的方法。     

温度翘曲应力对机场刚性道面寿命的影响

分析了目前中国民航机场刚性道面的设计过程,指出在设计过程中忽视温度应力的影响不合理。参照公路水泥混凝土路面温度应力计算方法并根据Miner定律研究了温度翘曲疲劳损耗对于机场刚性道面影响规律,即温度翘曲疲劳损耗随板厚、地基反应模量的增大而增大,随着混凝土设计强度的增加而降低。然后提出采用设计寿命的影响因子nt/Nt评价温度翘曲疲劳损耗对于机场刚性道面设计寿命影响的方法并提供了相应的机场刚性道面板厚度设计流程图。最后提供了一个考虑温度翘曲应力的刚性道面设计实例,为工程应用提供参考。     

Integration of lessons from recent research for “Earth to Mars” life support systems

Development of reliable and robust strategies for long-term life support for planetary exploration must be built from real-time experimentation to verify and improve system components. Also critical is incorporating a range of viable options to handle potential short-term life system imbalances. This paper revisits some of the conceptual framework for a Mars base prototype which has been developed by the authors along with others previously advanced (“Mars on Earth^®”) in the light of three years of experimentation in the Laboratory Biosphere, further investigation of system alternatives and the advent of other innovative engineering and agri-ecosystem approaches. Several experiments with candidate space agriculture crops have demonstrated the higher productivity possible with elevated light levels and improved environmental controls. For example, crops of sweet potatoes exceeded original Mars base prototype projections by an average of 46% (53% for best crop) ultradwarf (Apogee) wheat by 9% (23% for best crop), pinto bean by 13% (31% for best crop). These production levels, although they may be increased with further optimization of lighting regimes, environmental parameters, crop density etc. offer evidence that a soil-based system can be as productive as the hydroponic systems which have dominated space life support scenarios and research. But soil also offers distinct advantages: the capability to be created on the Moon or Mars using in situ space resources, reduces long-term reliance on consumables and imported resources, and more readily recycling and incorporating crew and crop waste products. In addition, a living soil contains a complex microbial ecosystem which helps prevent the buildup of trace gases or compounds, and thus assist with air and water purification. The atmospheric dynamics of these crops were studied in the Laboratory Biosphere adding to the database necessary for managing the mixed stands of crops essential for supplying a nutritionally adequate diet in space. This paper explores some of the challenges of small bioregenerative life support: air-sealing and facility architecture/design, balance of short-term variations of carbon dioxide and oxygen through staggered plantings, options for additional atmospheric buffers and sinks, lighting/energy efficiency engineering, crop and waste product recycling approaches, and human factor considerations in the design and operation of a Mars base. An “Earth to Mars” project, forging the ability to live sustainably in space (as on Earth) requires continued research and testing of these components and integrated subsystems; and developing a step-by-step learning process.     

基于数值模拟的超塑成形压力—时间曲线计算机辅助设计

确定压力随时间变化的关系曲线对于超塑成形工艺设计非常重要，本文在超塑成形压力计算时引入能量消耗控制策略，提出了一种压力－时间（Ｐ－Ｔ）曲线设计方法即恒能耗率法，实现了基于有际元数值模拟的超塑成形Ｐ－Ｔ曲线计算机辅助设计，文中对有关的压力控制算法及算式进行了较详细的介绍和推导，分别给出了半球壳自由胀形和圆筒形凹模约束成形过程的Ｐ－Ｔ曲线设计计算实例，并对计算结果进行了讨论，本文的研究拓宽了刚粘塑性有