Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks

We are developing a system to predict the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at the Earth. These events are routinely detected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA’s ACE spacecraft, which is positioned at Lagrange Point 1 (L1). In this work, we use historical EPAM data to train an IP shock forecasting algorithm. Our approach centers on the observation that these shocks are often preceded by identifiable signatures in the energetic particle intensity data. Using EPAM data, we trained an artificial neural network to predict the time remaining until the shock arrival. After training this algorithm on 37 events, it was able to forecast the arrival time for 19 previously unseen events. The average uncertainty in the prediction 24 h in advance was 8.9 h, while the uncertainty improved to 4.6 h when the event was 12 h away. This system is accessible online, where it provides predictions of shock arrival times using real-time EPAM data.     

Geoeffectiveness of interplanetary shocks controlled by impact angles: A review

The high variability of the Sun’s magnetic field is responsible for the generation of perturbations that propagate throughout the heliosphere. Such disturbances often drive interplanetary shocks in front of their leading regions. Strong shocks transfer momentum and energy into the solar wind ahead of them which in turn enhance the solar wind interaction with magnetic fields in its way. Shocks then eventually strike the Earth’s magnetosphere and trigger a myriad of geomagnetic effects observed not only by spacecraft in space, but also by magnetometers on the ground. Recently, it has been revealed that shocks can show different geoeffectiveness depending closely on the angle of impact. Generally, frontal shocks are more geoeffective than inclined shocks, even if the former are comparatively weaker than the latter. This review is focused on results obtained from modeling and experimental efforts in the last 15?years. Some theoretical and observational background are also provided.     

欧美月球GNSS规划现状分析综述

月球是地球最重要的天然卫星,当前国际上正在迎来新一轮月球探索高潮,数十个机构和商业团队正在规划月球探索任务,并设想在未来实现航天员长期驻月,围绕月球的“太空竞赛”刚刚开始。月球GNSS（基于现有的地球GNSS以及新的环月卫星通信导航基础设施的月球卫星通信导航定位技术）是空间基准科研的基础,能够提供航天器着陆定位以及月面（及其覆盖空间）定位、导航与授时等服务,同时可以将月球作为试验场,将导航工具包扩展到更远的目的地（如火星）。对欧美近期发布的月球GNSS规划进行了整理归纳,其中包括美国月球GNSS接收机实验（LuGRE）计划和欧洲月光（MoonLight）计划,以及美国中远期月球通信中继和导航系统（LCRNS）计划,这些计划可以为我国开展月球GNSS规划提供参考。