人民币汇率的中长期趋势分析

近年来，受供求影响，人民币名义汇率有向实际汇率靠拢的升值趋势，而实际汇率因受中国经济快速增长的影响仍处在上升趋势中。人民币升值有助于中国进口国际上过剩的经济资源，并产生有利于中国消费者的财富分配效应，但会使出口受到抑制，不利于扩大国内就业，所以应配合以扩大内需和结构调整的经济政策。     

军品技改项目基准折现率确定方法研究

由于军品项目的特殊性，其基准折现率的确定方法与其他项目有所不同，要用以项目资金加权平均成本为基准，以项目整体风险系数为乘数来增加项目抗风险能力或作为投资风险补偿的基准折现率计算方法，其中，加权平均资金成本采用各种来源资金的资金成本的加权平均值（即全部资金的加权平均值），而在确定风险系数时则应结合军品技改的实际情况，充分考虑项目的风险因素，恰当地确定有关指标和权重。     

再入飞行器和模型转换雷诺数计算

本文采用近似的激波关系、球锥体压力分布、平衡气体状态方程、边界层厚度计算公式及转捩准则等,按照流管法计算了4种再入飞行器的外流转捩雷诺数和转捩距离,并给出了高硅氧、碳石英、碳碳球锥模型的转捩雷诺数范围,对再入飞行器和模型的计算结果作了分析和比较。     

侧链基团和填料对硅橡胶材料耐烧蚀性能的影响

为了研究侧链基团和填料对硅橡胶材料耐烧蚀性能的影响,选用具有苯环和多面体低聚倍半硅氧烷(POSS)这2种侧链基团的硅橡胶基体,以及Mg(OH)2、蒙脱石、Fe2O3和短切碳纤维(1 mm)这4种填料,利用马弗炉等温烧蚀和动态热失重TG法研究不同侧链基团和填料样品的耐烧蚀机制。结果表明:苯环和POSS基团的引入使得基体初始分解温度分别提高了79 ºC和9 ºC,质量损失率分别降低了19.4%和12.0%。以Mg(OH)2 25 g(每100 g硅橡胶)、蒙脱石4 g和Fe2O3 6 g作为硅橡胶复合材料进行填料时,其质量烧蚀率为0.008 g/s,相比纯橡胶基体降低了86.8%。在以上配方中继续引入5 g碳纤维,使其质量烧蚀率降低至0.004 g/s。残炭层的微观形貌显示,短切碳纤维形成的三维骨架结构是提高硅橡胶材料耐烧蚀性能的关键。     

颈动脉内血流动力学特征受向前加速度影响的数值模拟

人们在日常或某些特殊条件下常会面临方向和大小发生迅速变化的加速度环境,已有研究发现加速度环境会影响心血管系统生理、病理特征。利用计算机模拟方法详细研究了向前加速度环境下人体颈动脉内的血流动力学参数变化规律。结果表明:加速度会对颈动脉内压力、压力梯度、壁面剪切应力等与血管生理、病理现象密切相关的血流动力学参数产生显著影响。研究结果为加速度环境下颈动脉生理、病理研究提供了一定的理论依据,也为航空航天领域加速度环境下人员防护提供参考。      

Simulation and analysis of chemical release in the ionosphere

Ionospheric inhomogeneous plasma produced by single point chemical release has simple space-time structure, and cannot impact radio wave frequencies higher than Very High Frequency (VHF) band. In order to produce more complicated ionospheric plasma perturbation structure and trigger instabilities phenomena, multiple-point chemical release scheme is presented in this paper. The effects of chemical release on low latitude ionospheric plasma are estimated by linear instability growth rate theory that high growth rate represents high irregularities, ionospheric scintillation occurrence probability and high scintillation intension in scintillation duration. The amplitude scintillations and the phase scintillations of 150?MHz, 400?MHz, and 1000?MHz are calculated based on the theory of multiple phase screen (MPS), when they propagate through the disturbed area.     

纳米碳粉掺杂对激光烧蚀GAP的推进性能影响

实验以含能聚合物聚叠氮缩水甘油醚(Glycidyl azide polymer,GAP）作为激光烧蚀微推力器的靶材。通过对不同浓度纳米碳粉掺杂和靶材厚度下激光烧蚀GAP的比冲、冲量耦合系数和能量转化效率测量，结合靶材喷射羽流图像，分析了纳米碳粉掺杂提高激光烧蚀聚合物靶材推进性能的机理，给出纳米碳粉掺杂的适用方式。实验结果表明：透射式下，掺杂纳米碳粉之后，聚合物对激光的吸收大幅增强，但激光烧蚀推进性能不随掺杂浓度增加而显著提升；纳米碳粉吸收激光能量形成温度极高的局部热区促进聚合物中化学能的释放，是推进性能提升的主要原因；掺杂纳米碳粉之后的GAP烧蚀深度降低，表现出面吸收特性；随着靶材厚度的增加，未完全烧蚀的工质质量增加，使得靶材的利用率大大降低，导致聚合物推进性能下降。实验中掺杂3%纳米碳粉、厚度为54 μm的GAP靶材最优能量转化效率超过250%，适合作为透射式激光烧蚀微推力器的靶材。     

Investigating the Coronal Mass Ejections associated with DH type-II radio bursts and solar flares during the ascending phase of the solar cycle 24

We studied a set of 74 CMEs, with shedding the light on the halo-CMEs (HCMEs), that are associated with decametric – hectometric (DH) type-II radio bursts (1–16?MHz) and solar flares during the period 2008–2014. The events were classified into 3 groups (disk, intermediate, and limb events) based on their longitudinal distribution.We found that the events are mostly distributed around 15.32° and 15.97° at the northern and southern solar hemispheres, respectively. We found that there is a clear dependence between the longitude and the CME’s width, speed, acceleration, mass, and kinetic energy. For the CMEs’ widths, most of the events were HCMEs (～62%), while the partial HCMEs comprised ～35% and the rest of events were CMEs with widths less than 120°. For the CMEs’ speeds, masses, and kinetic energies, the mean values showed a direct proportionality with the longitude, in which the limb events had the highest speeds, the largest masses, and the highest kinetic energies. The mean peak flux of the solar flares for different longitudes was comparable, but the disk flares were more energetic. The intermediate flares were considered as gradual flares since they tended to last longer, while the limb flares were considered as impulsive flares since they tended to last shorter.A weak correlation (R?=?0.32) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the duration of the associated flares has been noticed, while there was a good correlation (R?=?0.76) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the peak flux of the associated flares. We found a fair correlation (R?=?0.58) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the duration of the associated DH type-II radio bursts.     

装备激励约束定价模式机理对比分析与设计

激励约束定价模式能够极大调动承包商积极性，是控制装备成本的一种重要方法。通过深入分析美军激励约束定价模式和我军激励约束定价模式的设计机理，提出了承包商的期望利润和军方期望价格的计算方法，并通过对比不同定价模式的特点，在借鉴2种激励约束定价模式优点基础上，设计了一种新的激励约束定价策略，提出了指导装备激励约束定价模式改革的对策建议。最后，通过算例对本文方法进行了解释，同时验证了本文方法的有效性。     

非圆等距型面轮廓X-C轴联动高速磨削试验北大核心CSCD

针对非圆等距型面轮廓磨削加工存在表面质量差的问题,建立基于恒磨除率X-C轴联动磨削理论模型。选用陶瓷CBN砂轮进行三弧段非圆等距型面轮廓的高速磨削正交试验,探究砂轮线速度、工件速度和磨削深度对磨削比能、切向磨削力、磨削温度、表面粗糙度的影响规律。分析表明,砂轮线速度对切向磨削力、表面形貌的影响最大,磨削深度对磨削比能、磨削温度、表面粗糙度的影响最大。进行表面形貌观测未探测到明显的磨削烧伤区域,证明恒磨除率X-C轴联动磨削方式可用于非圆等距型面轮廓磨削加工。