Solar polar magnetic field dependency of geomagnetic activity semiannual variation indicated in the Aa index

Three major hypotheses have been proposed to explain the well-known semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity, maxima at equinoxes and minima at solstices. This study examined whether the seasonal variation of equinoctial geomagnetic activity is different in periods of opposite solar magnetic polarity in order to understand the contribution of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the Sun-Earth connection. Solar magnetic polarity is parallel to the Earth’s polarity in solar minimum years of odd/even cycles but antiparallel in solar minimum years of even/odd cycles. The daily mean of the aa, Aa indices during each solar minimum was compared for periods when the solar magnetic polarity remained in opposite dipole conditions. The Aa index values were used for each of the three years surrounding the solar minimum years of the 14 solar cycles recorded since 1856. The Aa index reflects seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity, which is greater at the equinoxes than at the solstices. The Aa index reveals solar magnetic polarity dependency in which the geomagnetic activity is stronger in the antiparallel solar magnetic polarity condition than in the parallel one. The periodicity in semiannual variation of the Aa index is stronger in the antiparallel solar polar magnetic field period than in the parallel period. Additionally, we suggest the favorable IMF condition of the semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity. The orientation of IMF toward the Sun in spring and away from the Sun in fall mainly contributes to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in both antiparallel and parallel solar minimum years.     

Assessment of space debris collisions against spacecraft with deorbit devices

Deorbit methods have been employed to remove space debris from orbit. One of these methods is to utilize atmospheric drag. In this method, a membrane loaded into the spacecraft is expanded to increase atmospheric drag. Although this method works without requiring fuel, it has the disadvantage of a high risk of collision with other debris owing to its larger area. Area-time product and energy-to-mass ratio have been used as indices to evaluate the risk of collisions between spacecraft and debris. However, the evaluation criteria were uncertain because these two indices are independent. In this paper, we propose a new evaluation index, single-sheet collision factor (SSCF), that comprehensively evaluates the collision risk based on experiments simulating debris collisions. As a result of the hypervelocity collision experiment, we found that the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft affects the severity of debris collisions. In this paper, the product of the exterior-wall thickness, the exterior-wall density, and the space debris cross-sectional area defines the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft. Furthermore, we compare and evaluate various deorbit methods using SSCF. The comparison showed that the penetration-area mass of the SSCF could be quantitatively determined for the debris-collision severity due to difference in structural materials of spacecraft. SSCF will be used to create rules for space-environment conservation with the expansion of the space-development market.     

企业技术创新绩效考核评价体系构建特性分析

评价指标的设立是创新绩效考核体系的核心问题。在对企业技术创新绩效考核评价体系特性进行系统分析的基础上,首次提出创新系统的绩效考核评价可以分解为对创新输入、创新输出以及创新能力三个方面的评价,并通过对创新流程的分析,分别提出了由这三个方面指标组成的创新绩效考核评价指标,对科学合理地建立精炼、完备的创新评价指标的方法进行了探讨。     

一种与样本信息合理匹配的可靠性模型

针对随机变量具有一定的积累而又不足以确定概率分布的情况,提出了一 种新的基于分段均匀描述的可靠性模型。该模型在积累数据构成的各个子区间上,采用区间 不确定性情况下的非概率模型求得相应的非概率可靠性指标,并依据每个子区间内均匀分布 假设下非概率可靠性指标与概率可靠度的关系,求得每个子区间内无频率信息情况下基于均 匀分布描述变量不确定性时的概率可靠度。由于每个子区间在所积累的数据中出现的可能性 相等,因此可将每个子区间内的概率可靠度进行平均来得到结构的可靠度。与非概率可靠性 模型只利用了积累数据的最大值和最小值情况相比,此方法可以充分利用积累数据中包含 的不确定性信息,避免了非概率模型描述时过于保守的结果。与概率模型相比,本文方法利 用积累数据自然形成的子区间上的均匀分布描述,避免了关于分布的强假设以及分布参数估 计在小样本情况下的较大误差。算例表明,所提模型是一种介于概率与非概率可靠性模型之 间的合理方法,它可以与样本信息较好地匹配,从而合理地度量结构的安全程度。
     

基于可靠性指标的测试系统校准周期优化

通过对测试系统校准周期的直接反应法(SRM)和威布尔(Weibull)可靠性模型法的分析、改进,以及对校准过程中误判率的分析测算,解决了测试系统检定决策的风险问题.首先介绍了测试系统可靠性指标的相关计量技术规范,然后通过对常用的校准周期确定方法的介绍与分析,进一步给出了测量可靠性观测值的可靠性概率函数描述方法,并利用主元分析法来综合评价不同测量参数的影响,修正了最佳校准周期的计算.通过对自动测试系统DMM(数字万用表)测量通道的检定,表明这些优化措施是可行的.      

基于机电阻抗方法的连接接头螺钉松动损伤识别研究

飞机在飞行过程中,机翼蒙皮的螺钉在反复载荷的作用下会发生松动、甚至脱落损伤,对飞机的飞行安全埋下隐患。及时发现此类损伤并采取有效措施可以提高飞机的安全性。针对此类损伤,设计了硬铝合金板连接接头的螺钉松动损伤模式,应用机电阻抗的试验方法对其进行了识别研究。试验结果表明：当选择恰当的频率范围时,随着螺钉松动损伤程度的增加,压电片与结构组成系统的RMSD（Root Mean Square Deviation）指标增加,两者表现出单调函数关系,应用RMSD损伤指标可以识别螺钉松动损伤程度,且对小的损伤更加敏感。     

基于AMESim模型的实时化简

针对航空发动机主燃油液压机械系统搭建的高保真模型无法进行实时仿真的问题,提出用活性能量指数配合线性频域分析的方法,分析化简已有的液压机械系统模型。通过计算模型中各个子元件的能量活性指数并结合线性频域分析,判断出其中能量活性指数低且固有频率远高于控制系统关注频带的子模型,并对其删除或修改,实现对原有模型的化简,以满足实时仿真需求。利用航空发动机实时仿真平台试验仿真结果表明,修改后的模型在保证精度的前提下,不仅缩短了仿真的时间而且满足了实时仿真的要求。     

“2010.8.24”飞机积冰过程分析

通过对2010年8月24日积冰过程的分析得出:这次积冰发生地点附近为垂直运动上升区,配合云中密集的冰水混合物,是造成这次飞机严重积冰的主要原因。积冰指数对于积冰强度和区域的预报具有指示意义。WRF中尺度数值模式选用Eta Ferrier微物理方案的模式结果中的云冰、云水以及总凝结混合比,这对于积冰强度和范围有一定的预报能力。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络和模糊灰度理论的飞行训练评估

针对战斗机飞行训练中的评估问题,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络和模糊灰度理论的评估方法。首先,分析了训练过程中典型飞行参数与机动动作的因果关系,根据专家经验与先验知识构建基于动态贝叶斯网络的机动动作识别模型,推理得到战斗机机动动作识别结果。然后,建立战斗机飞行训练评估指标体系,根据战斗机机动识别结果选择飞行训练评估指标,并采用综合赋权法确定了指标权重。最后,建立灰度模糊评估矩阵,结合飞行训练过程中各评估指标的飞行数据得到评估结果。实验结果表明该评估方法能够根据飞行过程中的参数信息进行机动动作识别及飞行训练评估,提高了飞行训练评估的效率。     

基于EMD的东亚夏季风年代际变化特征及与太阳活动的关系

应用英国气象局哈德利气象研究中心(HadleyCenter)及美国环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)的海平面气压(SeaLevelPressure,SLP)资料归一化得出1850-2011年的东亚夏季风指数,利用经验模态分解(EmpiricalModeDecomposition,EMD)方法对其变化特征进行分析,得到东亚夏季风指数的周期特征.太阳黑子活动与东亚夏季风活动存在相同的11年及80年左右周期,其中11年周期变化尤为明显.对比1850-2011年间太阳黑子数与东亚夏季风指数经验模态分解后的11年周期变化分量,发现两者波动振幅变化基本一致.