Progress in space weather predictions and applications

The methods of today’s predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday’s statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today’s applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.     

International Academy of Astronautics 5th cosmic study--preparing for a 21st century program of integrated,Lunar and Martian exploration and development (executive summary)

This report is an initial review of plans for a extensive program to survey and develop the Moon and to explore the planet Mars during the 21st century. It presents current typical plans for separate, associated and fully integrated programs of Lunar and Martian research, exploration and development, and concludes that detailed integrated plans must be prepared and be subject to formal criticism. Before responsible politicians approve a new thrust into space they will demand attractive, defensible, and detailed proposals that explain the WHEN, HOW and WHY of each stage of an expanded program of 21st century space research, development and exploration. In particular, the claims of daring, innovative, but untried systems must be compared with the known performance of existing technologies. The time has come to supersede the present haphazard approach to strategic space studies with a formal international structure to plan for future advanced space missions under the aegis of the world's national space agencies, and supported by governments and the corporate sector.     

Radio observations of Venus and the interpretations

The radio observations of Venus are reviewed and compared with theoretical microwave spectra computed for a variety of models of the Venusian environment. The models considered are (a) a CO₂-N₂ atmosphere, (b) an atmosphere of dust (the aeolosphere model), and (c) a cloud model with various loss mechanisms in the cloud. The effect of polarization on the surface emissivity has been included in all the computations. It is shown how the radio observations place limits upon the acceptable models, for example, the density and size of dust particles required in the aeolosphere model. It is shown how some models place severe restrictions on radar observations at short centimeter wavelengths, thereby emphasizing the importance of such experiments. These same models show that the Mariner II observations can not be interpreted in terms of surface phenomena and provide a new interpretation for the microwave phase effect.This work was supported in part by the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force under Contract DA36-039-AMC-03200(E); and in part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grants NsG-250-62 and NsG-419).     

Research priorities and plans for the International Space Station-results of the 'REMAP' Task Force

Recent events in the International Space Station (ISS) Program have resulted in the necessity to re-examine the research priorities and research plans for future years. Due to both technical and fiscal resource constraints expected on the International Space Station, it is imperative that research priorities be carefully reviewed and clearly articulated. In consultation with OSTP and the Office of Management and budget (OMB), NASA's Office of Biological and Physical Research (OBPR) assembled an ad-hoc external advisory committee, the Biological and Physical Research Maximization and Prioritization (REMAP) Task Force. This paper describes the outcome of the Task Force and how it is being used to define a roadmap for near and long-term Biological and Physical Research objectives that supports NASA's Vision and Mission. Additionally, the paper discusses further prioritizations that were necessitated by budget and ISS resource constraints in order to maximize utilization of the International Space Station. Finally, a process has been developed to integrate the requirements for this prioritized research with other agency requirements to develop an integrated ISS assembly and utilization plan that maximizes scientific output.     

Planetary preservation: the need for legal provision

The Earth has been hit by NEOs many times in its history and there is always a risk that this will happen again. While we are beginning to acquire the technology that could warn of and divert a future collision, the legal instruments needed to facilitate a global response to the problem are lacking, especially given that the most likely means of diverting a NEO would involve nuclear weapons that could also be used on Earth. An analysis of the current legal situation is used to support the argument that new rules must be created. The author also discusses US Air Force policy on the subject and whether planetary defense is consistent with its goal of achieving and sustaining US superiority in space.     

An innovative approach for distributed and integrated resources planning for the Space Station Freedom

The widely distributed nature of the Space Station Freedom program, plus continuous multi-year operations will force program planners to develop innovative planning concepts. The traditional centralized planning operation will not be adequate. It will be replaced by multiple small planning centers working within guidelines issued by a central planning authority. Plans will not be optimized; rather, operating efficiency and user flexibility will be blended to satisfy program goals. The key to this new approach is the application of new planning methodologies and system development technologies to accommodate distributed resources that must be integrated. Resources will be distributed to the multiple planning entities in such a way that, when the several plans are built and then integrated, they will fit together with minimal modification. The plan itself will be an envelope schedule containing resource limits and constraint boundaries within which users will be free to make choices of the specific activities they will execute, up to the time of execution. Some level of margin within program guidelines will be built in to allow for variation and unforeseen change. This paper presents the authors' recommended planning approach and cites two NASA systems being developed that will utilize these resource distribution/integration planning concepts, methodologies and development technologies.     

Ariane transfer vehicle in service of man in orbit

The Ariane transfer vehicle (ATV), an Ariane 5 borne, unmanned propulsion vehicle, is designed to transport the logistics needed to resupply the International Space Station (ISS) and the man tended free flyer (MTFF) step 2 with pressurized and unpressurized cargo and to dispose the waste. The ATV is an expendable vehicle and is disposed of by a safe atmospheric burn up. In accordance with the AR5 schedule it should be operational in 1996 for missions toward ISS and beyond the year 2000 for MTFF 2 missions. The main constituents of the proposed ATV are the modified AR5 third stage L5, an upgraded VEB steering the launcher as well as the ATV and the P/L-adaptor providing mechanical and umbilical links to the payload. The mechanical part of the RVD-kit will be placed on the payload-module, the main RVD sensors are located on the adaptor and the needed computer intelligence will be integrated on the VEB. To minimize the development, and recurring costs, the ATV concept fully complies to the idea of maximum use of existing hardware and software, mainly from the AR5, Hermes and Columbus programs thus minimizing development and recurring costs. The ATV is compatible to ISS, MTFF and OMV and is able to transport logistic modules compatible with NSTS and U.S.-expendable launchers.     

Submicron magnetite grains and carbon compounds in Martian meteorite ALH84001: inorganic, abiotic formation by shock and thermal metamorphism

Purported biogenic features of the ALH84001 Martian meteorite (the carbonate globules, their submicron magnetite grains, and organic matter) have reasonable inorganic origins, and a comprehensive hypothesis is offered here. The carbonate globules were deposited from hydrothermal water, without biological mediation. Thereafter, ALH84001 was affected by an impact shock event, which raised its temperature nearly instantaneously to 500-700K, and induced iron-rich carbonate in the globules to decompose to magnetite and other minerals. The rapidity of the temperature increase caused magnetite grains to nucleate in abundance; hence individual crystals were very small. Nucleation and growth of magnetite crystals were fastest along edges and faces of the precursor carbonate grains, forcing the magnetite grains to be platy or elongated, including the "truncated hexa-octahedra" shape. ALH84001 had formed at some depth within Mars where the lithostatic pressure was significantly above that of Mars' surface. Also, because the rock was at depth, the impact heat dissipated slowly. During this interval, magnetite crystals approached chemical equilibria with surrounding minerals and gas. Their composition, nearly pure Fe(3)O(4), reflects those of equilibria; elements that substitute into magnetite are either absent from iron-rich carbonate (e.g., Ti, Al, Cr), or partitioned into other minerals during magnetite formation (Mg, Mn). Many microstructural imperfections in the magnetite grains would have annealed out as the rock cooled. In this post-shock thermal regime, carbon-bearing gas from the decomposition of iron carbonates reacted with water in the rock (or from its surroundings) to produce organic matter via Fischer-Tropschlike reactions. Formation of such organic compounds like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons would have been catalyzed by the magnetite (formation of graphite, the thermochemically stable phase, would be kinetically hindered).     

On the dynamics of a novel manipulator with slewing and deployable links

Using a novel space platform-based manipulator with slewing and deployable links, the paper addresses two issues of considerable importance: (a) How important is it to model flexibility of the system? (b) How many modes are needed to adequately represent the elastic character? Results suggest that the fundamental mode is able to capture physics of the response quite accurately. Due to its massive character, the platform dynamics is virtually unaffected, even by severe maneuvers of the manipulator. Hence, treating the platform as rigid would save the computational cost without affecting the accuracy. Although the link flexibility does affect the manipulator's tip vibration, the joint and platform vibrations remain negligible. The revolute joint flexibility appears to be an important parameter affecting both the joint as well as tip responses. The information should prove useful in the design of this new class of manipulators.     

Bubble detector characterization for space radiation

In light of the importance of the neutron contribution to the dose equivalent received by space workers in the near-Earth radiation environment, there is an increasing need for a personal dosimeter that is passive in nature and able to respond to this neutron field in real time. Recent Canadian technology has led to the development of a bubble detector, which is sensitive to neutrons, but insensitive to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. By changing the composition of the bubble detector fluid (or “superheat”), the detectors can be fabricated to respond to different types of radiation. This paper describes a preliminary ground-based research effort to better characterize the bubble detectors of different compositions at various charged-particle accelerator facilities, which are capable of simulating the space radiation field.