Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

Technology readiness assessments: A retrospective

The development of new system capabilities typically depends upon the prior success of advanced technology research and development efforts. These systems developments inevitably face the three major challenges of any project: performance, schedule and budget. Done well, advanced technology programs can substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. Done poorly, or not at all, and new system developments suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.In the mid 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the concept of “technology readiness levels” (TRLs) as a discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) to allow more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. In 1995, the TRL scale was further strengthened by the articulation of the first definitions of each level, along with examples (J. Mankins, Technology readiness levels, A White Paper, NASA, Washington, DC, 1995. [1]). Since then, TRLs have been embraced by the U.S. Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO), adopted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and are being considered for use by numerous other organizations. Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes diverse organizations.This paper will review the concept of “technology readiness assessments”, and provide a retrospective on the history of “TRLs” during the past 30 years. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important discipline of technology readiness assessments.     

Characterizing high-energy-density propellants for space propulsion applications

A technique for computationally determining the thermophysical properties of high-energy-density matter (HEDM) propellants is presented. HEDM compounds are of interest in the liquid rocket engine industry due to their high density and high energy content relative to existing industry-standard propellants. In order to accurately model rocket engine performance, cost and weight in a conceptual design environment, several thermodynamic and physical properties are required over a range of temperatures and pressures. The approach presented here combines quantum mechanical and molecular dynamic (MD) calculations and group additivity methods. A method for improving the force field model coefficients used in the MD is included. This approach is used to determine thermophysical properties for two HEDM compounds of interest: quadricyclane and 2-azido-N,N-dimethylethanamine (DMAZ). The modified force field approach provides results that more accurately match experimental data than the unmodified approach. Launch vehicle and Lunar lander case studies are presented to quantify the system level impact of employing quadricyclane and DMAZ rather than industry standard propellants. In both cases, the use of HEDM propellants provides reductions in vehicle mass compared to industry standard propellants. The results demonstrate that HEDM propellants can be an attractive technology for future launch vehicle and Lunar lander applications.     

Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle similitude to the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle

The Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle is the first in a series of flight test vehicles that will take the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle design from development to operational capability. Ares I–X is scheduled for a 2009 flight date, early enough in the Ares I design and development process so that data obtained from the flight can impact the design of Ares I before its Critical Design Review. Decisions on Ares I–X scope, flight test objectives, and FTV fidelity were made prior to the Ares I systems requirements being baselined. This was necessary in order to achieve a development flight test to impact the Ares I design. Differences between the Ares I–X and the Ares I configurations are artifacts of formulating this experimental project at an early stage and the natural maturation of the Ares I design process. This paper describes the similarities and differences between the Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle and the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle. Areas of comparison include the outer mold line geometry, aerosciences, trajectory, structural modes, flight control architecture, separation sequence, and relevant element differences. Most of the outer mold line differences present between Ares I and Ares I–X are minor and will not have a significant effect on overall vehicle performance. The most significant impacts are related to the geometric differences in Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle at the forward end of the stack. These physical differences will cause differences in the flow physics in these areas. Even with these differences, the Ares I–X flight test is poised to meet all five primary objectives and six secondary objectives. Knowledge of what the Ares I–X flight test will provide in similitude to Ares I—as well as what the test will not provide—is important in the continued execution of the Ares I–X mission leading to its flight and the continued design and development of Ares I.     

Field emission characteristics of gold dust grains

The space plasma environment usually contains charged dust grains. The grain charge is an important parameter determining its migration through the space, coagulation, formation of dust clouds and so on. The knowledge of its charge is thus one of the basic information we want to know. There are several emission processes leading to both positive and negative charges, among others photoemission, all kinds of secondary emissions, field emissions, etc. The present study is focused on a laboratory simulation of emissions caused by impacts by energetic ions. Our experiment is based on the Paul trap which gives us an opportunity to catch a single dust grain for several days inside the vacuum vessel and exposed it by electron/ion beams. This experimental approach allows us to separate an individual charging process. We have chosen spherically shaped gold grains and discussed the processes leading to the limitation of the grain charge. We suggested that the implantation of charging ions leads to deformations of the grain surface. The deformations enhance the local electric field strength that becomes sufficient for the field ionization.     

Response of Hainan GPS ionospheric scintillations to the different strong magnetic storm conditions

Using the GPS ionospheric scintillation data at Hainan station (19.5°N, 109.1°E) in the eastern Asia equatorial regions and relevant ionospheric and geomagnetic data from July 2003 to June 2005, we investigate the response of L-band ionospheric scintillation activity over this region to different strong magnetic storm conditions (Dst < −100 nT) during the descending phase of the solar cycle. These strong storms and corresponding scintillations mainly took place in winter and summer seasons. When the main phase developed rapidly and reached the maximum near 20–21 LT (LT = UT + 8) after sunset, scintillations might occur in the following recovery phase. When the main phase maximum occurred shortly after midnight near 01–02 LT, following the strong scintillations in the pre-midnight main phase, scintillations might also occur in the post-midnight recovery phase. When the main phase maximum took place after 03 LT to the early morning hours no any scintillation could be observed in the latter of the night. Moreover, when the main phase maximum occurred during the daytime hours, scintillations could also hardly be observed in the following nighttime recovery phase, which might last until the end of recovery phase. Occasionally, scintillations also took place in the initial phase of the storm. During those scintillations associated with the nighttime magnetic storms, the height of F layer base (h’F) was evidently increased. However, the increase of F layer base height does not always cause the occurrence of scintillations, which indicates the complex interaction of various disturbance processes in ionosphere and thermosphere systems during the storms.     

Was there a late Archean biospheric explosion?

There is a growing body of evidence which suggests that the evolution of the planet drives the evolution of the biosphere. There have been 2 significant stages in Earth history when atmospheric oxygen levels rose rapidly, and both appear to be associated with supercontinent cycles. The earlier biospheric event, which extends across the Archean-Proterozoic boundary (ca. 3.0-2.2 Ga), has received little attention and is the focus of this study. Recent work on the Pilbara Craton of Western Australia has shown that concretion formed by microbial activity during the diagenesis of these sediments are absent from early Archean sediments but abundant in late Archean and early Paleoproterozoic successions of the Hamersley Basin, appearing abruptly in sedimentary rocks younger than 2.7 Ga. This study suggests that their internal architecture may have been defined by the diffusion of humic acids and the formation of polymer gels during diagenesis. The data imply that the biosphere expanded suddenly shortly after 3.0 Ga and may have begun to raise the oxygen levels of the oceanic water column earlier than thought-possibly as much as 300 my earlier.     

Searching for life on Mars: selection of molecular targets for ESA's aurora ExoMars mission

The European Space Agency's ExoMars mission will seek evidence of organic compounds of biological and non-biological origin at the martian surface. One of the instruments in the Pasteur payload may be a Life Marker Chip that utilizes an immunoassay approach to detect specific organic molecules or classes of molecules. Therefore, it is necessary to define and prioritize specific molecular targets for antibody development. Target compounds have been selected to represent meteoritic input, fossil organic matter, extant (living, recently dead) organic matter, and contamination. Once organic molecules are detected on Mars, further information is likely to derive from the detailed distribution of compounds rather than from single molecular identification. This will include concentration gradients beneath the surface and gradients from generic to specific compounds. The choice of biomarkers is informed by terrestrial biology but is wide ranging, and nonterrestrial biology may be evident from unexpected molecular distributions. One of the most important requirements is to sample where irradiation and oxidation are minimized, either by drilling or by using naturally excavated exposures. Analyzing regolith samples will allow for the search of both extant and fossil biomarkers, but sequential extraction would be required to optimize the analysis of each of these in turn.     

电磁流体动力驱动流体搅拌混合器特性研究

对小型电磁流体动力搅拌混合器的特性进行了理论分析和实验研究.该小型电磁动力混合器由聚碳酸脂和黄铜采用常规机械加工方法加工而成.研究采用的流体为氯化钠水溶液.为了观察流体的搅拌混合运动,在流体中加入微量微细玻璃珠作为示踪粒子.采用显微观测及图像采集技术记录流体的搅拌混合过程,用数字图像处理技术对流体速度场进行分析.建立了搅拌混合器的理论模型,并对其动力特性进行了数值分析,理论结果与实验结果相吻合.该小型电磁动力混合器已应用于微管道流动的混合控制并可应用于其它微流体控制系统中.